Joined: 05 Nov 2002 Posts: 1549 Location: Corner of No and Where 615 eGriz Bucks
Well, the "hot stove league" starts to heat up with this week's General Manager's meetings. Free agents can start arranging trips and the M's are expected to be active. Hell, they have to be active - if things don't turn around in 2006, a good number of front office gus will be sent packing. The FA market is pretty thin this year, though, and it'll be difficult to fill those holes through signings so look for a trade or two.
The M's GM Bill Bavasi has identified his three priorities: at least one pitcher to slide into the #1 or #2 slot, a left handed power hitter at LF or DH and an upgrade at catcher. He's got about $ 25 million/yr in payroll to play with.
The only pitchers on the FA market that match his #1/#2 criteria are AJ Burnett and Kevin Milwood. Burnett will probably go 5 years/$65 million, while Milwood will probably go 3 years/$30 million plus an option year at $10 million. Either would work for me - get one of 'em, Bill.
Left handed power hitters? Yeah - there is exactly one guy on the market - Giles from San Diego. He's going to be 34 next year and his power numbers have been sliding for a while now. Think of a left-handed, 37 year old Edgar that can still play in the field and you've got Giles. He'll hit 25 HR's, get a 400+ obp and demand a 3 yr/$27 million contract. I wouldn't mind Giles but this could be a place for a trade. Cincy may be looking to unload Griffey but he's owed a lot of money and is a major health risk. Huff will probably be moved but there are a lot of steroid rumors associated with him and he did have an off year in '05. This is going to be a tough spot to fill regardless.
Catcher is interesting. Japanese catcher Johjima is getting a lot of interest and has given some indication that he would like to come to Seattle. He's been a reliable .300-.330 average/30 HR guy in Japan and while his numbers will likely decline in the US, he still projects to a Matsui-level offensive producer. I'd take that at catcher. Other options are to stay in house with Torrealba and Rivera or go after Molina or Hernandez.
Moyer is an interesting choice. He's saying that he wants to come back but doesn't want to take a pay cut to do it. $8 million for a guy with a 4.6 era wouldn't be very smart but if they can get him for, say $2 million + incentives I guess I'd be ok with that. Meche is aribtration eligible and may be done with Seattle. There is some talk about converting him into a relief pitcher but the arbitrator is likely to give him $4 million. That's too much for a questionable relief pitcher and I'll bet the M's cut ties and let him go. He's such a head case that it won't break my heart.
Nageotte pitched in the Arizona Fall League as a starter and was flat out dominant. It looks like the M's will give him a shot to make the club as a starter in spring training and if he can hold up, he'll make a very nice #5 starter. A pitching rotation like this wouldn't scare me too much, I guess.
Burnett/Milwood
Felix
Piniero
Moyer
Nageotte
Eddie will be back to anchor the pen and Soriano should be healthy to serve as a set up guy. Add in Putz, Mateo, Atchison and Sherrill and the M's pen should be fine.
Should be an interesting off season.
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The best way to predict the future is to create it.
-----Peter Drucker
Joined: 05 Nov 2002 Posts: 1549 Location: Corner of No and Where 615 eGriz Bucks
Man, the M's rotation is even worse off than I thought. Felix is the only guy that you can say has a spot locked up for 2006. Rather than start a new thread, I'll just post this here.
Meche's line from 2005:
W10, L8; 143 IP; 5.09 era; 83k's, 72 bb's and 18 hr's.
I'd say that he's not going to be back.
Bobby Madritsch was released and picked up by KC after his most recent surgery - he won't pitch until 2007 anyway.
Piniero was only marginally better that Meche. The M's would love to trade him but may get stuck with his $6 million salary.
Franklin just stinks.
Campillo had Tommy John surgery and will be out until 2007.
Harris started off well but faded pretty bad down the stretch. He's better suited for long relief and the occasional start.
Moyer was good in Safeco (2.95 era) and very bad on the road (6.11 era).
Nageotte was converted to relief, got hurt and came back as a reliever. He was stretched out in the fall league and will have a chance to become a starter again but can we count on him.
Soriano was out most of 2005 with TJ surgery. He should be back but the M's seem to have given up on him as a starter.
Foppert was picked up in the Winn trade but he hasn't managed to get his velocity back after 2004 TJ surgery. Unless he can get that fastball up over 92mph on a regular basis, he won't be an option.
Damn, that's some depressing stuff. Oh well - free agency starts today!
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The best way to predict the future is to create it.
-----Peter Drucker
I heard a rumor from a friend in Seattle that the M's are going after a catcher from japan. I dont know a name, only that he is a left-handed hitter who runs well.
Joined: 05 Nov 2002 Posts: 1549 Location: Corner of No and Where 615 eGriz Bucks
Kenji Johjima is a Japanese All Star catcher with numbers similar to those that Matsui put up in Japan. He hits right handed but stil projects to a Veritek level of production in the US. Very good batting eye - lots of walks and not many strikeouts. Calls a good game and runs well for a catcher. He has said that he wants to test himself against major league players in the US for three years or so and then return to Japan and finish his career there. That's perfect for the M's, since that gives us time to develop Clement and Johnson.
The M's made him an offer and his wife evidently loved Seattle. He pissed his agent off by cutting short his trip to the US early and returning to Japan. He visited with San Diego and Seattle, went to Chicago for a press conference and then cancelled meetings with the White Sox and Mets. My guess is he'll be a Mariner by this time next week.
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The best way to predict the future is to create it.
-----Peter Drucker
Joined: 05 Nov 2002 Posts: 1549 Location: Corner of No and Where 615 eGriz Bucks
Seattle papers are reporting that Johjima is going to be a Mariner by the end of the week. Finnegan is the M's "unofficial leak" in the Seattle press, so this is reliable. Sounds like a two year, $5 mil/year contract with some incentives and an option for a third year. Johjima is holding a press conference in Japan on the 22nd - we'll know for sure then.
This is a good signing. He'll upgrade a premium position, not cost a whole lot and probably make Ichiro very happy. Now lets get some pitchers.
Joined: 05 Nov 2002 Posts: 1549 Location: Corner of No and Where 615 eGriz Bucks
The M's resigned Moyer to a one year, $5.5 million deal.
In an interesting move, catcher Torrealba was traded to the Rockies for a nice young reliver named Marcos Carvajal. Carvajal made his debut in the majors this year at 20 years old and is from Venezuela. He throws hard - 96mph fast ball - and if he sticks he makes the M's bullpen one of the filthiest in recent memory. This trade makes it very likely that the M's will trade a reliever or two, with Mateo and Putz being the two most likely to go.
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The best way to predict the future is to create it.
-----Peter Drucker
This is a little bit unrelated, but Dave Niehaus is up for the Ford Frick Award which is given to a baseball broadcaster who has made significant contributions to the game of baseball. Without Dave, there may not be a Mariners team today. And what better home run call is there than "Fly Away!" MY OH MY!
Joined: 05 Nov 2002 Posts: 1549 Location: Corner of No and Where 615 eGriz Bucks
bozbobcat wrote:
This is a little bit unrelated, but Dave Niehaus is up for the Ford Frick Award which is given to a baseball broadcaster who has made significant contributions to the game of baseball. Without Dave, there may not be a Mariners team today. And what better home run call is there than "Fly Away!" MY OH MY!
You said it, brother. Without Niehaus I wouldn't be an M's fan. I love the "Fly Away" call and the "Get out the mustard and the rye bread grandma, it's grand salami time!" calls but my favorite is when he gets all caught up in the moment of a crucial home run and growls "swung on and belted!".
Dave is also up for the baseball broadcaster's hall of fame. Hope he gets in.
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The best way to predict the future is to create it.
-----Peter Drucker
Joined: 05 Nov 2002 Posts: 1549 Location: Corner of No and Where 615 eGriz Bucks
The M's have signed Carl Everett to play left field, pending a physical. It's a one year deal and I'm seriously underwhelmed. Not only is the guy in serious decline and unlikely to make 100+ starts in the field, but he's anut case to boot. He doesn't believe that dinosaurs ever existed and tried to pick a fight with Jamie Moyer a couple of years ago. This is the first move that the Mariner FO has made this year that I seriously question. Carl Fricking Everett? Ugh.
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The best way to predict the future is to create it.
-----Peter Drucker
GrizBiz, i know Everett isnt the best LF in the game, but who else is out there? Everett in my opinion is a good sign and now they can start looking for a starting pitcher. Everett will be able to split time with Raul in LF and DH. Its only a 1 year deal and who knows, if the M's are in it come July, they could trade for another LF.
Joined: 05 Nov 2002 Posts: 1549 Location: Corner of No and Where 615 eGriz Bucks
I really don't think that Jurassic Carl is a better LF'er than Randy Winn and that means that the M's are going backwards. I wouldn't mind him as a 4th outfielder/part time DH/bench bat but as an every day left fielder, I'm underwhelmed. Some M's analysts that I respect seem to think otherwise - the DOV has him hitting 30 HR's for Seattle - so I could be very, very wrong.
Right now, the M's have about $10-11 million left in open payroll for next year. Millwood or bust, I guess. His agent also represents Washburn and Weaver and the M's are going to have to pay through the nose for any of them. Borass wants around $10-11 million/year for each of them with Millwood at five years; Washburn and Weaver at four each.
Depending on what Bavasi pulls out of his hat, I'm guessing that the upside for the M's in 2006 is a .500 record. That's pretty much what I thought in 2005, too, so I'm basically watching my team tread water. I guess it's better than trading away the young talent but still frustrating. The M's have a top five payroll and will be lucky to win 82 games. Sigh.
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The best way to predict the future is to create it.
-----Peter Drucker
What's even more sad is that the Angels, A's, and Rangers are all getting better and all should be very competitive next year. So it could be another long year for the M's. I see Everett primarily in the DH role.
The M's website said everett will mostly play DH. I agree with GrizBiz that the Mariners still have a long ways to go to be where they were a couple seasons ago. I still not sold on Lopez @ 2nd and I think they need a better right-handed set-up man then Putz. It was rumored that the Mariners might try and get back Villone from the fire-selling Marlins, which I think would be a great move. I havent heard much about that in about a week though.
Joined: 05 Nov 2002 Posts: 1549 Location: Corner of No and Where 615 eGriz Bucks
I'm actually pretty optomistic about Lopez. The guy just turned 22 years old last month, so he's well ahead of his development curve right now. His bat speed is wicked - his swing looks a lot like Sheffield's, actually - but he still hasn't completely harnessed it yet. Guys that get their first cup of coffee in the majors at 20 years old are very, very rare and they almost all stumble. Tejada took four years, with three of them as a full time starter to really get rolling. With YuBet, Lopez and Reed the M's have a trio of very young, very talented guys up the middle and I like that. I just hope they all make significant strides in 2006 - we are going to need it.
The problem for the offense right now is on the left corners. Ibanez has hamstring problems and putting him in left field full time is asking for injury. I'd wager that he will miss a significan amount of time to injury in 06. Beltre, on the other hand, just has to play better. He's getting paid a lot of $$ and we need him to jack 30+ HRs and drive in 120 runs. If he can't do that, the M's are in trouble.
The starting rotation still scares me. Felix is great but he's also 19 years old and will have his innings restricted. Moyer is fine for a #4 pitcher but the M's won't have the luxury of pitching him at the back of the rotation. Piniero is a mystery and if he wasn't owed $6.5 million guaranteed in 2006, I think that they would dump him. Franklin and Meche will both be dumped - Fraklin because he stinks and Meche because he'll likely command $4 million in arbitration and that's too much for a head-case like him. Nageotte will probably get the chance to nail down the #5 slot in spring training but I don't know if we can really rely on him making 25 starts for the M's in '06 yet. Foppert has to prove that his velocity is back after the TJ surgery 2 years ago and if it's back, he and Nags will battle it out in spring training.
Any way that you look at it, ee NEED an anchor for the starting rotation. Millwood would be great - he won the era title last year and it's quite likely that he'd give us 190-220 innings per year for the next four years. In Safeco, he'd have to be favored to put up sub-4 eras and a sub 3 era might crop up in there somewhere. His agent is looking for a five year, $60 million deal though and that might price him out of the M's plans. Still, slide him into the #1 slot and all of a sudden the M's pitching is pretty good.
Starting:
#1 Millwood
#2 Felix
#3 Moyer
#4 Piniero
#5 Nageotte
Joined: 07 Dec 2005 Posts: 780 Location: Mukilteo, WA 3141 eGriz Bucks
The Mariners and the Seattle area baseball fans seem to lack one essential ingredient -- fire. Go to a ball game at Fenway or Yankee Stadium or Wrigley Field and your experience is so different than Safeco. At other parks, you see, feel and hear a level of excitement and intensity. The crowds at Safeco are more like a sensitivity encounter group than baseball fans -- next thing you know, the Mariner organization will require that a fan caught booing the opposing team take a 10-minute time out to get in touch with his feelings. In his recent comments, Ichiro echoed that sentiment; in short, he wants to play for a team with the heart of a winner. That attitude starts at the front office and carries through for the fans. Community relations, strong fan support and an overall "good guy feeling" are important aspects, but so is wnthusiasm, winning and fielding a competitive team. I noticed a lot of empty seats at Safeco this past season....that trend is likely to continue. The Mariners could also use a good rivalry....they will never get to the Yankees/Red Sox or Dodgers/Giants sort of level, but some added rivalry blood would be a good thing.
If you make every game a life-and-death thing, you're going to have problems. You'll be dead alot -- Dean Smith.
When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro -- Hunter S. Thompson
Joined: 05 Nov 2002 Posts: 1549 Location: Corner of No and Where 615 eGriz Bucks
Yeah - you can place the blame for that right on Mr Howard Lincoln. He's said over and over that one of his big priorities is providing a "safe, family friendly environment" for the fans. That's nice and all but when they refuse to admit season ticket holders that show up at the ballpark with a "Yankees Suck" T-Shirt, they are carrying it too damn far.
Here's Howard's take on the Mariners from a PI article a couple of months ago:
Quote:
"I feel strongly about this," he said. "We do a very, very good job of creating an environment of safety, security and great customer service in a place that's clean and friendly. Fans love our players and they appreciate that they and the organization are active in the community. That side of it should never be forgotten.
"It is one of the reasons we have enjoyed good attendance despite not executing on the other side of the equation."
Not only has the ballpark worked for fans, it has worked for non-fans. From weddings to concerts to pro wrestling to graduations to Microsoft employee gatherings, the ballpark is rented, in whole or in part, at a rate far beyond what was imagined when it was on the drawing board in the mid-1990s.
Forbes magazine estimated in April that the Mariners earned $5 million to $8 million from non-baseball events at the park, a range Lincoln quickly dismissed. "Forbes is out of line on a lot of things," he said. But the Mariners have had about 185 non-baseball events over the past 12 months.
"All you have to do is walk around ... and talk to people in the stands. It's apparent there are fun things to do besides baseball. Sometimes you can sit with a group of 20 or so, and there'll be one guy with his arms crossed saying, 'Why don't they do this or that,' and the rest are there for a variety of other reasons."
So much for a single minded dedication to winning, eh? If those folks that show up at the ballpark for reasons other than baseball are your target market, well...you get an uninspiring environment for baseball.
BTW - speculation is that the M's are talking to Sydney Ponson's agent. They sign that fat piece of junk and I'm going to have to reassess my allegiance to the team.
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The best way to predict the future is to create it.
-----Peter Drucker
Whats with the stupid rumor going around of Reed going to the Red Sox for either Clement or Arroyo? Either one of those guys would be great, but Reed is already one of (if not the) best center fielder in the game today. You could've made a case for him for a gold glove this year and his batting stats can only improve. If the Mariners sign Millwood like they are rumored to be close to doing, there is no need trade Reed. If they do trade Reed, I think the Mariners should start looking for a new GM
Whats with the stupid rumor going around of Reed going to the Red Sox for either Clement or Arroyo? Either one of those guys would be great, but Reed is already one of (if not the) best center fielder in the game today. You could've made a case for him for a gold glove this year and his batting stats can only improve. If the Mariners sign Millwood like they are rumored to be close to doing, there is no need trade Reed. If they do trade Reed, I think the Mariners should start looking for a new GM
Joined: 05 Nov 2002 Posts: 1549 Location: Corner of No and Where 615 eGriz Bucks
I'm with you GrizFan20. I wouldn't say that Reed is untouchable in a trade but I'd sure as hell want more than a #4 starter with a 4.5 era. Clement and Arroyo are both ok pitchers but trading Reed for either of them would be dumb. Clement is owed $9 million/year for the nest two years, so if the M's trade for him he's the only pitcher they will be able to afford. Arroyo is aribitration eligible and will probably make $4 million in 2006, so that's ok but I still wouldn't give up Reed for him.
Some folks think that this is actually a negotiating ploy that the M's and Sox are playing with super agent Scott Borass. He represents both Damon and Millwood and the thinking is that both clubs are trying to gain some leverage over him in the negotiation. Borass wants a seven year deal for Damon and a five year deal for Millwood. So I guess the M's and Sox could be working together so that they can each have an alternative to put on the table when Borass comes knocking. "Five/seven years is just too rich for us, Scott, I think we'll just trade for Clement/Reed instead." If this is the case, I salute Mariner GM Bill Bavasi because it's a ballsy strategy. I hate to see Borass call the bluff but I can't blame the GM's for playing the game.
My Reed rant: Most people seem to think that Reed was a big disappointment with the bat in 2005 and that makes him trade bait. Shrug. The guy played some great defense and played most of the year with a ligament injury in his left wrist. This is a guy that hit .400 for a whole year in AA and I think that he will hit in the majors. I'd expect him to hit about .280-290 in 2006 and that's just fine with me. The Mariners have to stop trading away young players for mediocre veterans. It's just killing the franchise.
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The best way to predict the future is to create it.
-----Peter Drucker
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