This year I invested in the Montana Grizzlies and the stock opened a little over $33, which had not seen this level since Dec 2004.
I thought it was a little high, however, it was rated in the top 3 based on last years performance and projected expectation of the return management team and its talent to execute a winning record.
There was also a great deal of hype coming from investors who believed in its performance and had high hopes that it would bring possibly some big gains.
So I thought I would roll with this price anyway, instead of waiting and possibly missing the boat especially noting the support coming from such an enthuastic group.
There was also a fair amount of talk mostly coming from non investor about the stock being overrated and doubting a high perfomance yield.
Little did I know that in 4 months the stock would plummet to $21 and some change. There was some movement during this time but mostly to the down side. We did get a little boost around the middle of November, but it dropped a few points the following week just before Thanksgiving, mostly on talk that the stock was underperfoming and could possibly not hold up to the upcoming outside pressure it was facing that weekend.
I was listening to what was being said by some of those that had invested in the stock and even non investors alike, but, I did not want to sell out because I still believed in it even though I was starting to question its management team and the lack of innovation of how they were taking care of business.
In the end I took the loss and now I am wondering about what to do for next year.
My gut feeling is that next year it will open at about $15-17.............maybe that is a good thing because there will not be as much pressure to perform, at least at the level it was expected to this year.
I know it is a sound stock and has a history of doing good, but I still question the management team especially with other stocks in this sector that are out performing with excellent management teams and have the talent to execute the mega deals, such as, App State, Richmond and EWU to name a few.
My intent is to invest again next year and hope that we have a sleeper here and we will make an impact in this sector and will be showing us the money in the end.
I know current investors are now scrutinizing all aspects of this great stock and are looking for it to rebound.
Is this your take as well?
I only ask this because it is a major investment of my time and emotinal energy, the loss I can handle, it is the stress of not being heard as a stockholder that seems to weigh the most.
While I agree that the executive staff may have mismanaged the corporate assets and squandered opportunities that might have otherwise yielded a greater ROI, I can't help but think that the executive staff is aware of the shareholder discontent and has a heartfelt desire to produce results more consistent with shareholder expectations. I also feel that the executive staff has ironically been guilty of missteps more out of fear of failing the stockholders than any inherent lack of ability.
I am also heartened by the fact that the chairman of the board (king George) has also expressed a desire for better performance in the conduct of daily operations. It is my ardent hope that a word to the wise is sufficient, and that CEO O'Day will provide sufficient incentive for COO Hauck to take whatever steps are necessary to produce results more consistent with shareholder expectations.
I feel that continued investment in this program is still a good investment.
My understanding of corporate life cycles allows for short term sacrifices (while R&D investment in innovative ideas begins to bear fruit) to be made in order to achieve long term benefits. Every business will experience periods of dominance, followed by periods of stagnation resulting from lack of R&D and innovation (if it ain't broke, don't fix it). Stagnation in turn spurs innovation as a response to loss of market share. innovation, properly applied can then propel the program back to its position of dominance. The trick to maintaining position among the top performers in any industry, particularly when operating from a position of dominance (and lack of competition) is to compete, not with other corporations, but with ourselves - by striving to improve, at every opportunity, on the way we currently conducting our business.
Only by continually investing R&D dollars in acquiring innovative technologies can we stay ahead of the curve, and force other operations to respond to our proactive strategies - rather than reacting to the strategies developed by them as they attempt to usurp our position atop the industry.
Our goals should be SMART (Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Realistic and Time-bound)
I could live with a 2 year turn-around time, after which management performance should be re-evaluated.
I am not one of those who in expressing opinions confine themselves to facts.
..........Mark Twain..........
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