eGriz
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Joined: 27 Mar 2002
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Location: Missoula, Montana
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Griz #10 in the TSN Top 25 Poll.
Harmon Forecasts and the Top 25.
Griz #14 in Sagarin Ratings for I-AA.
Special Report I - I-AA Playoffs: Livin' On a Prayer (Dougherty, TSN).
TSN I-AA Top-25 Schedules
I-AA West: The 'Cats' Meow (Schmidt, I-AA.org).
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Southern Illinois and Georgia Southern remain 1-2
http://www.sportsnetwork.com/default.asp?c=sportsnetwork&page= cfoot2/news/AGN3577821.htm
Philadelphia, PA (Sports Network) - Southern Illinois and Georgia Southern moved into strong position as the No. 1 and No. 2 teams in the nation with convincing victories. The Salukis defeated Western Illinois, 66-13, and captured 79 of a possible 108 first-place votes and 2,669 points to earn the top spot in The Sports Network I-AA top 25 for the seventh straight week and eighth time this season. Georgia Southern defeated South Dakota State, 63-7, and remained at No. 2 with 28 first-place votes and 2,619 points. Only one other team, James Madison, received a first-place vote.
The rest of the top five was changed from last week as the No. 3, 4 and 5 teams all dropped games Saturday. Furman moved up three spots to No. 3 while idle. The Paladins host No. 2 Georgia Southern Saturday. Sam Houston State went up four notches to No. 4 with a 31-28 win against No. 13 Stephen F. Austin. Western Kentucky moved two positions to No. 5 after a win against Illinois State.
Delaware dropped three positions to No. 6 after a 34-20 loss at Navy. The Blue Hens travel to No. 7 James Madison Saturday. The Dukes went up two rungs with a win against VMI. New Hampshire moved two places to No. 8, while Lehigh went up three to No. 9 with a 21-14 win against No. 18 Colgate. Montana fell six positions to No. 10 after falling, 35-32, at Portland State.
In at No. 11 is Cal Poly, which saw its hopes for an undefeated season dashed with a 36-33 loss to UC Davis. Wofford is down a spot to No. 12 despite a win against The Citadel. William & Mary is up three to No. 13, Hampton remains at No. 14, and Jacksonville State vaulted five positions to No. 15.
Harvard, the lone remaining undefeated team in I-AA football, went up five spots to No. 16 by holding on in a 13-12 win over Dartmouth. Montana State was the week's biggest riser. The Bobcats are up seven positions to No. 17 with a convincing 60-14 win at Northern Arizona. Stephen F. Austin fell to No. 18 with the loss to Sam Houston State, while Villanova and Penn round out the top 20.
Eastern Washington, Northwestern State, UC Davis, Colgate and Alabama State complete the top 25. UC Davis is back in the rankings after dropping out last week, while Alabama State is ranked for the first time since early in the 2002 season. Appalachian State and Maine fell out of the rankings.
24 of the top 25 teams are in action this weekend with some huge matchups between ranked teams as the playoffs approach. The marquee game of the weekend is in Greenville, S.C. where No. 2 Georgia Southern visits No. 3 Furman. Also, No. 6 Delaware is at No. 7 James Madison, No. 11 Cal Poly takes on No. 21 Eastern Washington and No. 13 William & Mary hosts No. 19 Villanova.
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Sports Network's I-AA College Football Poll
http://www.sportsnetwork.com/default.asp?c=sportsnetwork&page= cfoot2/misc/tsn-div-1aa-poll.htm
Team (First-place votes) 2004 Record Points Previous Rank 1. Southern Illinois Salukis (79) 8-1 2,669 1 2. Georgia Southern Eagles (28) 8-1 2,619 2 3. Furman Paladins 6-2 2,327 6 4. Sam Houston State Bearkats 7-1 2,231 8 5. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 6-2 2,186 7 6. Delaware Blue Hens 6-2 2,185 3 7. James Madison Dukes (1) 7-1 2,064 9 8. New Hampshire Wildcats 6-2 1,778 10 9. Lehigh Mountain Hawks 7-1 1,634 12 10. Montana Grizzlies 6-2 1,633 4 11. Cal Poly Mustangs 7-1 1,539 5 12. Wofford Terriers 6-2 1,531 11 13. William & Mary Tribe 6-2 1,356 16 14. Hampton Pirates 7-1 1,293 14 15. Jacksonville State Gamecocks 6-1 999 20 16. Harvard Crimson 7-0 955 21 17. Montana State Bobcats 6-2 894 24 18. Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks 5-3 864 13 19. Villanova Wildcats 6-3 792 23 20. Penn Quakers 6-1 791 22 21. Eastern Washington Eagles 6-3 489 25 22. Northwestern State Demons 5-3 358 15 23. UC Davis Aggies 6-2 356 NR 24. Colgate Raiders 5-3 291 18 25. Alabama State Hornets 6-1 282 NR
Others receiving votes:
26. Southern 214
27. Coastal Carolina 159
28. South Carolina State 139
29. Appalachian State 108
30. North Dakota State 83
31. Maine 81
32. Lafayette 52
33. Northern Iowa 39
34. Bethune-Cookman 16
35. Nicholls State 16
36. Southeastern Louisiana 16
37. Portland State 16
38. Tennessee Tech 9
39. Texas State 8
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Harmon Forecasts
http://cbs.sportsline.com/collegefootball/story/5625861
1. Southern Ill 28, at Illinois St 9
2. Ga Southern 19, at Furman 17
3. Furman 17, Ga Southern 19
4. Sam Houston St 39, McNeese St 7
5. Western Ky 24, at SW Missouri St 14
6. Delaware 17, at James Madison 24
7. James Madison 24, Delaware 17
8. New Hampshire 20, at Rhode Island 13
9. Lehigh 28, at Georgetown 7
10. Montana vs. NAU (no call)
11. Cal Poly 14, at Eastern Wash 21
12. Wofford 27, Gardner-Webb 9
13. William & Mary 22, Villanova 19
14. Hampton 14, Bethune-Cookman 7
15. Jacksonville St 29, Samford 6
16. Harvard 36, Columbia 6
17. Montana St 28, at Sacramento St 17
18. SF Austin 20, at Nicholls St 14
19. Villanova 19, William & Mary 22
20. Penn 21, at Princeton 13
21. Eastern Wash 21, Cal Poly 14
22. Northwestern St 21, Texas St 10
23. UC Davis, idle
24. Colgate 22, Lafayette 16
25. Alabama St 26, at Grambling 13
North Dakota St 27, at Weber St 10
Southern Utah 17, Northern Colorado 14
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Sagarin Ratings
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt04.htm
Games through October 30, 2004
Big Sky Conference
96 Montana
103 Eastern Washington
124 Montana State
133 Portland State
144 Northern Arizona
169 Idaho State
181 Weber State
187 Sacramento State
I-AA Top 15
41 Georgia Southern
47 James Madison
58 Southern Illinois
61 New Hampshire
65 Harvard
72 William & Mary
74 Villanova
77 Delaware
82 Cal Poly
88 Northeastern
90 Sam Houston State
93 Hofstra
95 Maine
96 Montana
97 Pennsylvania
I-AA: All, with I-A Mixed In
41 Georgia Southern
42 Colorado A
43 Boston College A
44 Southern Miss A
45 UAB A
46 Clemson A
47 James Madison
48 Navy A
49 New Mexico A
50 Florida A
51 Iowa State A
52 Maryland A
53 Northwestern A
54 Georgia Tech A
55 Nebraska A
56 Troy A
57 Bowling Green A
58 Southern Illinois
59 Memphis A
60 Wyoming A
61 New Hampshire
62 Northern Illinois A
63 Michigan State A
64 Wake Forest A
65 Harvard
66 Kansas State A
67 Air Force A
68 Kansas A
69 Syracuse A
70 Washington State A
71 Florida Atlantic A*
72 William & Mary
73 Louisiana Tech A
74 Villanova
75 Colorado State A
76 Mississippi A
77 Delaware
78 Cincinnati A
79 Pittsburgh A
80 Marshall A
81 Connecticut A
82 Cal Poly
83 Indiana A
84 Penn State A
85 TCU A
86 Baylor A
87 UNLV A
88 Northeastern
89 Rutgers A
90 Sam Houston State
91 San Diego State A
92 Arizona A
93 Hofstra
94 Miami-Ohio A
95 Maine
96 Montana
97 Pennsylvania
98 Middle Tennessee A
99 North Texas A
100 Vanderbilt A
101 Western Kentucky
102 Rice A
103 Eastern Washington
104 Toledo A
105 Houston A
106 UC Davis
107 Tulsa A
108 Furman
109 Louisiana-Monroe A
110 South Florida A
111 New Mexico State A
112 Washington A
113 Arkansas State A
114 Louisiana-Lafayette A
115 Illinois A
116 Mississippi State A
117 Hawaii A
118 Massachusetts
119 Lehigh
120 Nevada A
121 Duke A
122 Lafayette
123 Brown
124 Montana State
125 Army A
126 Kentucky A
127 Jacksonville State
128 East Carolina A
129 Stephen F. Austin
130 Utah State A
131 Texas State
132 North Dakota State
133 Portland State
134 Appalachian State
135 Southern Utah
136 Princeton
137 Rhode Island
138 South Dakota State
139 Tulane A
140 Northern Iowa
141 Wofford
142 Akron A
143 Colgate
144 Northern Arizona
145 Richmond
146 Idaho A
147 Temple A
148 Hampton
149 Kent State A
150 NW Louisiana
151 Ohio U. A
152 Central Michigan A
153 SMU A
154 San Jose State A
155 Bucknell
156 Nicholls State
157 SMS(SW Missouri St.)
158 Cornell
159 Fla. International A*
160 Yale
161 Coastal Carolina
162 Eastern Kentucky
163 Towson
164 Western Carolina
165 Bethune-Cookman
166 Alabama State
167 Fordham
168 Illinois State
169 Idaho State
170 So. Carolina State
171 Eastern Michigan A
172 Murray State
173 Tennessee Tech
174 Citadel
175 SE Louisiana
176 Southern U.
177 Drake
178 UCF(Central Florida) A
179 Northern Colorado
180 Western Illinois
181 Weber State
182 Indiana State
183 Ball State A
184 Youngstown State
185 Buffalo A
186 Samford
187 Sacramento State
188 McNeese State
189 Ark.-Pine Bluff
190 Chattanooga
191 Eastern Illinois
192 San Diego
193 Monmouth-NJ
194 Liberty
195 Western Michigan A
196 Elon
197 Dayton
198 Gardner-Webb
199 SE Missouri State
200 Jackson State
201 Florida A&M
202 Central Conn. State
203 Alcorn State
204 Duquesne
205 Albany (NY)
206 Columbia
207 Tennessee State
208 Howard
209 Dartmouth
210 Alabama A&M
211 Delaware State
212 Morgan State
213 Robert Morris
214 Sacred Heart
215 Wagner
216 Georgetown
217 Grambling
218 Charleston Southern
219 Holy Cross
220 N.C. A&T
221 VMI
222 Stony Brook
223 Tenn.-Martin
224 Miss. Valley State
225 Morehead State
226 Norfolk State
227 Savannah State
228 Marist
229 Davidson
230 St. Francis-Pa.
231 Prairie View A&M
232 Valparaiso
233 Jacksonville
234 La Salle
235 Iona
236 Butler
237 Saint Peter's
238 Texas Southern
239 Austin Peay
240 ***UNRATED***
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Special Report I - I-AA Playoffs: Livin' On a Prayer
By Matt Dougherty, The Sports Network
http://www.sportsnetwork.com/default.asp?c=sportsnetwork&page= cfoot2/news/AGN3577687.htm
Philadelphia, PA (Sports Network) - Maybe when he's done campaigning for John Kerry, Jon Bon Jovi can sing some inspirational tunes to I-AA schools that have only prayers remaining in the playoff race.
With tight races in the Ohio Valley Conference, MEAC and Southland, many teams that aren't on the national radar need music and prayers to hang on to the hope of a miracle run and a lot of assistance to earn the league's automatic bid. So Howard, Nicholls State and Eastern Kentucky, you're still with us for at least another week. The prayers probably won't be answered, but at least the trio can hang onto some faint hope as we enter the final three weeks of rampant speculation for the 16-team I-AA playoff field.
Before we begin a peek at the potential teams for the 2004 playoff field, let's review a few of the procedures that will leave some teams blue and make others rejoice on selection Sunday.
Sixteen playoff teams will be announced on Nov. 21, of which eight will be automatic qualifiers (the champions of the Atlantic 10, Big Sky, Gateway, MEAC, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southern and Southland conferences) and eight will be chosen as at-large entries. A committee of I-AA directors of athletics will be asked to judge at-large teams on the following points, which come straight out of the NCAA manual:
1. The committee shall select the best teams available on a national at-large basis to complete the bracket; 2. There is no limit to the number of teams the committee may select from one conference; 3. The won-lost record of a team will be scrutinized to determine a team's strength of schedule; however, more than three losses will place a team in jeopardy of not being selected; 4. The committee may give more consideration to those teams that have played all Division I opponents; 5. If the team of a committee member is under consideration, the member may not vote for the team being considered and will not be in the room when a vote is taken.
Here are a few clarifications for who is and who is not eligible for the playoff field:
- The Ivy League does not participate in the I-AA playoffs by decree of the Ivy school presidents.; - The SWAC will send its division champions to the SWAC title game on Dec. 11, so only second place teams and below are playoff eligible. Grambling and Southern, which play in the Nov. 27 Bayou Classic, are also ineligible for the playoffs due to conflict with the first round.; - The Great West Conference does not have an automatic bid, but both Cal Poly and Southern Utah are playoff eligible. UC Davis, Northern Colorado, North Dakota State and South Dakota State are in their transitional phase from Division II football and are not playoff eligible.; - The five-team Big South Conference's teams are eligible for the playoffs, but the league does not have an automatic bid.; - The 22 teams from the three "I-AA Mid-Major" conferences (MAAC, NEC, Pioneer) are technically playoff eligible, though no team from any of those non- scholarship leagues has ever been chosen for the field.;
Now that we've established the criteria, let's take a first look at the prospects of the 36 I-AA teams that can still entertain playoff prospects going into the first weekend of November. Schools are ranked by their probability of making the 16-team field, as determined by The Sports Network, and not by current top 25 rank or potential playoff seeds. Current overall and conference records are in parentheses, and each team's remaining schedule is listed with a brief synopsis of its chances.
No. 1 Georgia Southern (8-1, 6-0 Southern)
THE GAMES: at Furman (11/6), at Florida International (11/13)
OUTLOOK: The Eagles have basically already guaranteed their spot in the field of 16, and can hang on to a top two seed by winning the final two games. Georgia Southern has already clinched a tie for the Southern Conference title and can win the title outright with a win at Furman.
No. 2 Southern Illinois (8-1, 5-0 Gateway)
THE GAMES: at Illinois State (11/6), Indiana State (11/13)
OUTLOOK: The Salukis keep running through the Gateway and will clinch the conference's automatic bid with just one more win. Winning out should leave Southern Illinois with a top two seed, while the Salukis would appear to be in already even if they shockingly lose the final two.
No. 3 Sam Houston State (7-1, 2-0 Southland)
THE GAMES: McNeese State (11/6), at Northwestern State (11/13), Texas State (11/20)
OUTLOOK: The Bearkats' win at Stephen F. Austin leaves them in great shape for a playoff berth, at least. Sam Houston State is tied for the Southland lead and has a chance to move up to a top four seed by winning out. The Bearkats might be able to suffer two more losses and still sneak in but should play well enough to avoid sweating on selection day.
No. 4 James Madison (7-1, 5-0 Atlantic 10)
THE GAMES: Delaware (11/6), William & Mary (11/13), at Towson (11/20)
OUTLOOK: The Dukes have the best situation of any remaining hopeful in the Atlantic 10. James Madison can win the conference and possibly even move up to a top four seed by winning out, and has the advantage of playing the toughest remaining games at home. If James Madison loses twice it still has a chance, but that's not a road the Dukes want to explore.
No. 5 Lehigh (7-1, 3-0 Patriot)
THE GAMES: at Georgetown (11/6), Fordham (11/13), at Lafayette (11/20)
OUTLOOK: By virtue of beating Colgate, the Mountain Hawks are in great shape to win the Patriot League and maybe even get a home game with a 10-1 record. The toughest game remaining is at Lafayette and every game is very winnable. If they lose one of the first two contests and still beat the Leopards, Lehigh would likely still be in good shape for the conference title. With history going against a second team from the Patriot League, any loss that affects the conference title could be damaging.
No. 6 New Hampshire (6-2, 3-2 Atlantic 10)
THE GAMES: at Rhode Island (11/6), Towson (11/13), at Maine (11/20)
OUTLOOK: The Wildcats big win at Northeastern leaves them in good position for a playoff bid. With wins at Delaware, Rutgers and Villanova, New Hampshire should still be comfortable with an 8-3 record. The games at Rhode Island and against Towson will likely lift UNH into the playoff field, but a slip up in one of those two will make the contest at Maine very interesting
No. 7 Montana (6-2, 3-1 Big Sky)
THE GAMES: Northern Arizona (11/6), Sacramento State (11/13), Montana State (11/20)
OUTLOOK: After losing at Portland State, the Grizzlies will need to take two out of the last three at home to feel good about their playoff chances. Winning out will give Montana at least a share of the Big Sky title, but with two losses the Grizzlies will need some help to earn a top four seed. It's hard to imagine the Grizzlies dropping two of three at home and falling out of the playoffs altogether, but surely their in-state rivals would love to be the ones to knock the Grizzlies off.
No. 8 Western Kentucky (6-2, 4-1 Gateway)
THE GAMES: at Southwest Missouri State (11/6), Western Illinois (11/13), at Florida International (11/20)
OUTLOOK: The Hilltoppers should be safe if they win two out of the final three, and every game is a good matchup for Western Kentucky. Three wins and a 9-2 record could help Western Kentucky earn a home game. The Gateway automatic bid is highly unlikely as Southern Illinois needs just one more win to clinch the title.
No. 9 Delaware (6-2, 5-0 Atlantic 10)
THE GAMES: at James Madison (11/6), at Richmond (11/13), Villanova (11/20)
OUTLOOK: If Delaware can win two of the last three, they'll be in the playoff bracket again. The Blue Hens can clinch the Atlantic 10 automatic bid by winning out, and wins in the final three games would likely mean a top four seed and home games in Newark. Losses to James Madison and Villanova would probably leave Delaware on the outside looking in.
No. 10 Cal Poly (7-1, 3-1 Great West)
THE GAMES: at Eastern Washington (11/6), Northern Colorado (11/13), at Sacramento State (11/20)
OUTLOOK: At 7-1, it appears Cal Poly can afford at least one more loss and still make the playoffs. But in a conference without an automatic bid, even two losses would leave the Mustangs sweating a bit on selection day. Sweeping the remaining games would seem to put the Mustangs in good position to host a round, but a top four seed could be tough to pick up in the first-year Great West.
No. 11 Furman (6-2, 3-1 Southern)
THE GAMES: Georgia Southern (11/6), at Wofford (11/13), Chattanooga (11/20)
OUTLOOK: Furman can afford a loss to Georgia Southern, but falling for a fourth time would likely doom the Paladins chances. If Furman can defeat Georgia Southern and win out, the Paladins will win the Southern Conference bid and notch top four seed.
No. 12 William & Mary (6-2, 4-1 Atlantic 10)
THE GAMES: Villanova (11/6), at James Madison (11/13), Richmond (11/20)
OUTLOOK: The Tribe's only losses this year are at North Carolina and Delaware, so they could probably still feel safe with one more loss. The season finale at Richmond won't be much trouble, so William & Mary will need to win one of the next two to move into comfortable playoff position.
No. 13 Montana State (6-2, 4-0 Big Sky)
THE GAMES: at Sacramento State (11/6), Eastern Washington (11/13), at Montana (11/20)
OUTLOOK: The "Cardiac" Cats barely needed to play the second half to whip Northern Arizona and are in good shape for a playoff berth and the Big Sky title. If Montana State wins out, the Bobcats take the conference title and have a good chance to stay at home for at least one playoff game. They can afford one more loss and still get an at-large (or possibly still win the Big Sky), but two more losses would do in the Bobcats.
No. 14 Hampton (7-1, 4-1 MEAC)
THE GAMES: Bethune-Cookman (11/6), North Carolina A & T (11/13), at Savannah State (11/20)
OUTLOOK: The Pirates control their own destiny in the MEAC race. Wins over Bethune-Cookman and North Carolina A & T would put Hampton into the playoffs, and victories in the final three contests might even help the Pirates get a home game. If Hampton loses one of the MEAC games, the Pirates will have a tough time winning the conference and would have to wait for an at-large bid that might not come.
No. 15 Jacksonville State (6-1, 4-1 OVC)
THE GAMES: Samford (11/6), at Eastern Illinois (11/13), SE Missouri (11/20)
OUTLOOK: With Tennessee Tech's loss to Samford, Jacksonville State is back in control of its own destiny in the OVC race. Four teams trail the Gamecocks by one game, so a loss could mean a complicated tiebreaker that Jacksonville State would love to avoid. If they lose a game, the Gamecocks would finish with just seven wins against I-AA competition, meaning an at-large bid would be unlikely. But with a formula of win and your in, Jacksonville State has to feel a lot safer than other bubble teams around the country.
No. 16 Wofford (6-2, 4-2 Southern)
THE GAMES: at Gardner-Webb (11/6), Furman (11/13), at VMI (11/20)
OUTLOOK: The picture for the Terriers looks much better after Appalachian State's loss and losses of other teams in the top 25. Wofford would feel really good about itself by winning out and finishing 9-2, but the Terriers now would have a shot to make the field with an 8-3 mark despite three conference losses.
No. 17 Northwestern State (5-3, 1-1 Southland)
THE GAMES: Texas State (11/6), Sam Houston State (11/13), at Stephen F. Austin (11/20)
OUTLOOK: The Demons went from virtual playoff lock to just hanging on with losses in the last two games. The good news for Northwestern State, though, is winning out will assure the Demons of a playoff berth as the Southland champion, providing Nicholls State doesn't also win out. With three marginal wins earlier in the season, the Demons will definitely need to win the final three to have any chance.
No. 18 Eastern Washington (6-3, 5-1 Big Sky)
THE GAMES: Cal Poly (11/6), at Montana State (11/13)
OUTLOOK: Wins in the final two games will earn the Eagles a playoff berth. Eastern Washington has made a great recovery from an 0-2 start, but if it loses one of the final two that comeback could be for naught. If the Eagles lose to Cal Poly and defeat Montana State, they would win the Big Sky title and automatic bid if Montana loses another game.
No. 19 Lafayette (6-2, 3-0 Patriot)
THE GAMES: at Colgate (11/6), Holy Cross (11/13), Lehigh (11/20)
OUTLOOK: Flying under the radar, the Leopards just need to win out to capture the Patriot League title. With wins in the next two games, Lafayette would set up a likely winner-take-all showdown with Lehigh in the season finale. The Leopards have some other scenarios where they could take the automatic bid even with a loss to Colgate, but none of those pictures look rosy and an at-large bid is probably not going to happen.
No. 20 Stephen F. Austin (5-3, 0-2 Southland)
THE GAMES: at Nicholls State (11/6), McNeese State (11/13), Northwestern State (11/20)
OUTLOOK: After starting 5-1 and winning all the close games, the Lumberjacks have lost the last two by a field goal and will need to win out to gain a bid. With an 0-2 record in the Southland, the conference title is already out of the question. Stephen F. Austin has more talent than Nicholls State and McNeese State, and will need to beat both teams to set up a final game showdown with Northwestern State
No. 21 Colgate (5-3, 2-1 Patriot)
THE GAMES: Lafayette (11/6), at Bucknell (11/13), at Fordham (11/20)
OUTLOOK: The Raiders best chance to win the Patriot League would be to win out and have Lehigh lose twice. Colgate will be effectively eliminated from the playoff race with any more losses, and the athletic directors of teams that are not involved could decide a three-team tie between Colgate, Lafayette and Lehigh. An 8-3 record might be good enough for an at-large spot and last season's success could help the case, but the Raiders won't have any big wins to show the committee.
No. 22 South Carolina State (6-2, 3-1 MEAC)
THE GAMES: Howard (11/6), Morgan State (11/13), North Carolina A & T (11/2)
OUTLOOK: The formula for the Bears is pretty simple. South Carolina State needs to win out and have Bethune-Cookman defeat Hampton to earn the MEAC automatic bid. If they don't gain the automatic spot, the Bears would have a case for an at-large spot by finishing 9-2 in the conference with losses to only Wofford and Hampton. But after both conference teams lost by double digits a year ago, the committee may be reluctant to take two from the MEAC again.
No. 23 Villanova (6-3, 3-3 Atlantic 10)
THE GAMES: at William & Mary (11/6), at Delaware (11/20)
OUTLOOK: When the Wildcats lost to Northeastern on October 9, they were pretty much written off in the Atlantic 10 with a 3-3 mark and 0-3 start in the conference. After three convincing wins against the weaker teams in the league, Villanova will probably be in the playoffs if it wins the final two games on the road. That's no easy task, but the prospects sure look better now than they did three weeks ago.
No. 24 Texas State (4-4, 2-0 Southland)
THE GAMES: at Northwestern State (11/6), Nicholls State (11/13), at Sam Houston State (11/20)
OUTLOOK: Like Lafayette, Texas State might not be considered a contender in general but is in great shape in its conference. The Bobcats won't go as an at- large, so they'll probably have to win the rest of their conference games to capture the Southland title. They could still win the league with a 4-1 mark, but it would probably take a win over Sam Houston in the season finale because the Bearkats don't figure to lose the next two games.
No. 25 Bethune-Cookman (5-2, 4-1 MEAC)
THE GAMES: at Hampton (11/6), Howard (11/13), Florida A & M (11/20)
OUTLOOK: The Wildcats need to beat Hampton and Howard and have South Carolina State lose to capture the MEAC title. Bethune-Cookman would finish 8-2 by winning out, but that might not be good enough for selection as an at-large after going with the same mark last season.
No. 26 Eastern Illinois (4-4, 3-2 OVC)
THE GAMES: at Tennessee Tech (11/6), Jacksonville State (11/13), at Samford (11/20)
OUTLOOK: Remember, this is a team that has one of the three wins over a I-A opponent this season (defeated Eastern Michigan, 31-28). The Panthers have been erratic and the loss to Tennessee-Martin might come back and bite them. Eastern Illinois does control its own destiny much more than the other two-loss teams in the OVC because it still plays Jacksonville State. If the Panthers beat the Gamecocks, they would win the head-to-head tiebreak. Only Eastern Kentucky would pose a problem in the tiebreak situation, so Eastern Illinois has its fate largely in its own hands.
No. 27 Nicholls State (4-3, 1-1 Southland)
THE GAMES: Stephen F. Austin (11/6), at Texas State (11/13), at McNeese State (11/20)
OUTLOOK: The Colonels aren't in bad shape for the conference title as they have already faced Sam Houston State and Northwestern State. The best shot would be to win the remaining games and finish in a tie with just Northwestern State for the top spot, which Nicholls State would take by virtue of its victory over the Demons. Earning the automatic bid with a three-way tie is possible, but relying on that scenario is risky to say the least.
No. 28 Fordham (5-3, 2-1 Patriot)
THE GAMES: at Bucknell (11/6), Lehigh (11/13), Colgate (11/20)
OUTLOOK: If the Rams win out, they'll have a pretty good shot at the Patriot League title with a 5-1 record and wins against Lehigh and Colgate. In a best- case scenario, Fordham needs to win the three remaining games, have Lafayette lose to Colgate, and then have Lehigh beat Lafayette. In that situation, the Rams would win a head-to-head tiebreak with the Mountain Hawks and earn the conference's automatic bid. Any other situation would be tough for the Rams to earn the bid, and they won't be going as an at-large.
No. 29 Tennessee Tech (5-3, 2-2 OVC)
THE GAMES: Eastern Illinois (11/6), at SE Missouri (11/13), Eastern Kentucky (11/20)
OUTLOOK: A loss to Samford took Tennessee Tech out of the OVC driver's seat and into a very crowded pack of four teams one game back of first-place Jacksonville State. Winning out would take Eastern Illinois and Eastern Kentucky out of the tie, but the Gamecocks would still have to lose once and Murray State would also have to lose for the Golden Eagles to definitely earn the bid. If Murray State, Jacksonville State and Tennessee Tech finish in a messy three-way tie, the outcome of the game against the fourth place team would decide the champion. When the explanation for your chances is this long, it's not a good sign.
No. 30 Murray State (5-4, 4-2 OVC)
THE GAMES: Tennessee-Martin (11/13), at Tennessee State (11/20)
OUTLOOK: Of all the two loss teams in the OVC, Murray State has the least work to do to stay at the two-loss mark. The Racers have the easiest two games remaining, and have a good chance to finish 6-2 in the league. The two losses came against Eastern Illinois and Jacksonville State, so the tiebreakers with those teams would be tough to capture. If Murray State can get in a tiebreak that involves Eastern Kentucky or Tennessee Tech, they would be in better shape. The chances aren't good, but if they can at least take the last two the Racers can hope the rest of the conference beats up on each other.
No. 31 Howard (5-3, 2-2 MEAC)
THE GAMES: at South Carolina State (11/6), at Bethune-Cookman (11/13), Delaware State (11/20)
OUTLOOK: The Bison need some, no make that a ton, of help to have a shot at the MEAC championship. First off, they can't lose again. If they win out, they'll finish with two losses and also deal South Carolina State and Bethune-Cookman a second loss. They also need Bethune-Cookman to defeat Hampton, and then Hampton to also lose to North Carolina A & T because the chances of winning a tiebreaker that involves the Pirates are very slim. At least the Bison have hope.
No. 32 Eastern Kentucky (3-5, 3-2 OVC)
THE GAMES: at Tennessee-Martin (11/6), SE Missouri (11/13), at Tennessee Tech (11/20)
OUTLOOK: The Colonels need to win out and get a lot of help. Jacksonville State has to lose at least once, and then Eastern Kentucky would be in a four-way tie with Murray State and Eastern Illinois if both of those teams win out. The problem is, a three-way tie with Murray State and Jacksonville State would eliminate the Colonels right away, as would a two-way tie with either team. Eastern Kentucky needs to find a way to win out and somehow win the conference title outright or finish in a tie with just Eastern Illinois to have any legitimate shot at the OVC title. Things don't look promising in Richmond.
No. 33 Maine (4-4, 2-2 Atlantic 10)
THE GAMES: Hofstra (11/6), at Rhode Island (11/13), New Hampshire (11/20)
OUTLOOK: Maine's inability to close games all season will probably be its undoing. The Black Bears have blown two last-minute leads and lost on a missed extra point in three of their four defeats this year. Maine did win at Mississippi State and played one of the toughest schedules in I-AA this season, so winning the rest of the games and finishing 7-4 would make a bid at least possible if there are a ton of upsets. If enough teams fall to force the committee to take a four-loss team, Maine would probably be the first to go.
No. 34 Northern Iowa (4-4, 3-2 Gateway)
THE GAMES: at Indiana State (11/6), Illinois State (11/13), at Northern Arizona (11/20)
OUTLOOK: After a 1-4 start, the Panthers might actually be able to sneak into the playoffs by winning out and seeing a lot of upsets around the nation. The three I-AA losses were all to top 15 teams at the time and all came by a touchdown or less, and UNI's fourth loss came against Iowa State. The Panthers would end the year on a six-game winning streak if they finish 7-4, and though the four losses would still hurt their chances the committee may take UNI's hot finish into consideration. Other than the four losses, the Panthers will have a problem with only six wins against I-AA teams. It doesn't look good, but the situation is not as impossible as it looked a few weeks ago.
No. 35 Appalachian State (5-4, 3-2 Southern)
THE GAMES: Elon (11/6), at Western Carolina (11/13)
OUTLOOK: The Jekyll and Hyde act has almost definitely doomed the Mountaineers already. Appalachian State is already past the magical three-loss mark, and isn't even the best team sitting with four defeats right now. Considering the Mountaineers are No. 3 among teams that already have four losses, Appalachian State needs to win out and hope for about five upsets a week to have a shot at a playoff berth.
Projected Field of 16 (As of 11/1)
-Projections are made by the Sports Network based on predicted finishes and not current standing:
Top Four seeds: Southern Illinois, Georgia Southern, Delaware, Sam Houston State
Automatic bids: A-10: Delaware; Big Sky: Montana; Gateway: Southern Illinois; Ohio Valley: Jacksonville State; Patriot: Lehigh; MEAC: Hampton; Southern: Georgia Southern; Southland: Sam Houston State;
At-large bids: New Hampshire, James Madison, William & Mary, Montana State Western Kentucky, Cal Poly, Furman, Wofford
***
TSN I-AA Top-25 Schedules
http://www.sportsnetwork.com/merge/tsnform.aspx?c=sportsnetwor k&page=cfoot2/sched/cf_fared.aspx
Team (Record)
1. Southern Illinois Salukis (8-1)
Nov. 6: at Illinois St
Nov. 13: vs. Indiana State
Nov. 20: Idle
2. Georgia Southern Eagles (8-1)
Nov. 6: at Furman
Nov. 13: at Florida Intl
Nov. 20: Idle
3. Furman Paladins (6-2)
Nov. 6: vs. Ga Southern
Nov. 13: at Wofford
Nov. 20: vs. Chattanooga
4. Sam Houston State Bearkats (7-1)
Nov. 6: vs. McNeese State
Nov. 13: at Northwestern St
Nov. 20: vs. Texas State
5. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (6-2)
Nov. 6: at SW Missouri
Nov. 13: vs. Western Ill
Nov. 20: at Florida Intl
6. Delaware Blue Hens (6-2)
Nov. 6: at James Madison
Nov. 13: at Richmond
Nov. 20: vs. Villanova
7. James Madison Dukes (7-1)
Nov. 6: vs. Delaware
Nov. 13: vs. Wm & Mary
Nov. 20: at Towson
8. New Hampshire Wildcats (6-2)
Nov. 6: at Rhode Island
Nov. 13: vs. Towson
Nov. 20: at Maine
9. Lehigh Mountain Hawks (7-1)
Nov. 6: at Georgetown
Nov. 13: vs. Fordham
Nov. 20: at Lafayette
10. Montana Grizzlies (6-2)
Nov. 6: vs. Northern Ariz
Nov. 13: vs. Sacramento St
Nov. 20: vs. Montana State
11. Cal Poly Mustangs (7-1)
Nov. 6: at Eastern Wash
Nov. 13: vs. Northern Colo
Nov. 20: at Sacramento St
12. Wofford Terriers (6-2)
Nov. 6: vs. Gardner-Webb
Nov. 13: vs. Furman
Nov. 20: at Va Military
13. William & Mary Tribe (6-2)
Nov. 6: vs. Villanova
Nov. 13: at James Madison
Nov. 20: vs. Richmond
14. Hampton Pirates (7-1)
Nov. 6: vs. Bethune-Cook
Nov. 13: vs. NC A&T
Nov. 20: at Savannah St
15. Jacksonville State Gamecocks (6-1)
Nov. 6: vs. Samford
Nov. 13: at Eastern Ill
Nov. 20: vs. SE Missouri
16. Harvard Crimson (7-0)
Nov. 6: vs. Columbia
Nov. 13: at Penn
Nov. 20: vs. Yale
17. Montana State Bobcats (6-2)
Nov. 6: at Sacramento St
Nov. 13: vs. Eastern Wash
Nov. 20: at Montana
18. Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks (5-3)
Nov. 6: at Nicholls State
Nov. 13: vs. McNeese State
Nov. 20: vs. Northwestern St
19. Villanova Wildcats (6-3)
Nov. 6: at Wm & Mary
Nov. 13: Idle
Nov. 20: at Delaware
20. Penn Quakers (6-1)
Nov. 6: at Princeton
Nov. 13: vs. Harvard
Nov. 20: vs. Cornell
21. Eastern Washington Eagles (6-3)
Nov. 6: vs. Cal Poly
Nov. 13: at Montana State
Nov. 20: Idle
22. Northwestern State Demons (5-3)
Nov. 6: vs. Texas State
Nov. 13: vs. Sam Houston
Nov. 20: at Ste F Austin
23. UC Davis Aggies (6-2)
Nov. 6: Idle
Nov. 13: vs. North Dakota St
Nov. 20: at Portland St
24. Colgate Raiders (5-3)
Nov. 6: vs. Lafayette
Nov. 13: at Bucknell
Nov. 20: at Fordham
25. Alabama State Hornets (6-1)
Nov. 6: at Grambling
Nov. 13: vs. Miss Valley St
Nov. 20: Idle
***
I-AA West: The 'Cats' Meow
Kent Schmidt, I-AA Western Columnist
http://www.i-aa.org/article.asp?articleid=62952
The past two years most fans would consider the Montana State Bobcats the luckiest team in I-AA football. You see, the Bobcats have been the Big Sky Conference co-champions and received the automatic bid those two seasons despite overall records that would not have given them an at-large playoff spot.
The Bobcats finished both the 2002 and 2003 seasons with 7-5 overall records before the playoffs, yet both seasons Montana State was the Big Sky's automatic participant into the I-AA playoffs.
In both seasons, Montana State was sent on the road and both times they lost. In 2002, the Bobcats lost at McNeese State. In 2003, Montana State lost at Northern Iowa.
The 2004 season is a little different for Montana State and the fans in Bozeman. While the Bobcats are again contending for the Big Sky crown with a leading 4-0 conference mark, they are also looking for a possible home playoff game as they have a 6-2 overall record as of today.
What has been different in the 2004 season as compared to the two previous seasons?
This season the Bobcats actually started off similarly slow as they had in the past two seasons. After defeating DII Adams State to begin the year, they lost the next two-at home against Cal Poly (27-14) and on the road at I-A Colorado State (39-14).
After this 1-2 start, things looked rather similar to the past two years.
However, the 'Cats picked things up and won a rash of very close games after the Colorado State loss. The next four games would be decided by no more then seven points in defeating Idaho State (17-13), Weber State (20-17), Portland State (31-24 in OT), and South Dakota State (27-24).
A number of these close games were ones that Montana State was losing in 2002 and 2003, at least early in both seasons before turning things around against Big Sky Conference opponents later in the seasons.
Last year, the 'Cats lost games by less then seven to Cal Poly (24-21), Northern Colorado (14-10), and Idaho State (23-17).
Two years ago, Montana State lost games by less then seven to Idaho State (18-14) and Northern Arizona (20-17).
The four victories prior to last week came against what most would consider four rather average or below average teams. Idaho State is 2-6 on the year. Weber State is 1-8. Portland State is 4-4. And South Dakota State is a I-AA transitional team, who is 4-4 with two of those victories against DII teams.
With these four wins, the games were mostly won in dramatic fashions so questions about the team were still there as far as how good they really are.
That was until this past week when Montana State seemed to answer these questions.
Who did Montana State defeat last week to open people's eyes?
The Bobcats defeated previously ranked and 2003 playoff participant Northern Arizona on the road in Flagstaff-a place they had not won since 1979. Montana State not only defeated the Lumberjacks, they destroyed them for their fifth straight victory.
The final score of this game was 60-14. And it really wasn't that close if you can believe it!
The Bobcats led at halftime 53-0 in what I was sure was a misprint when I saw the score on the ESPN score tracker.
It was not. The Bobcats scored on all eight of its first-half possessions.
Montana State's quarterback Travis Lulay led the Bobcat attack. Montana State rolled up 411 yards in the first half, including a 313-yard passing effort by Lulay on 16-for-23 passing and three touchdowns. Lulay ended the day with 366 yards, his third straight game over 300 yards, in 21-for-32 passing effort with the three touchdowns. He also added 33 rushing yards and a touchdown on the ground.
The Bobcat defense also came up big against NAU. The defense forced three turnovers; two interceptions and a fumble recovery that led to 17 points. Safety Toph Grenfell grabbed two of the three turnovers that led to MSU scores. The junior recovered a NAU quarterback Jason Murrietta fumble on a fourth-and-one to set up a 41-yard touchdown pass by Lulay. Grenfell then intercepted a Murrietta pass to set up kicker EJ Cochrane's short 26-yard field goal to put MSU up 22-0 at the end of the first quarter. Senior linebacker Brandon Eggart ran back another fumble by Murrietta 40 yards for the final touchdown and scoring of the first half.
"I don't know if we're that good, and I do know that they're not that bad," said MSU head coach Mike Kramer after the victory over NAU.
Coach, if you continue to play this way the rest of the season, you are this good.
Who do the Bobcats have yet to play this season?
Montana State has three regular season games remaining. This week, the Bobcats visit another one of those so-called average teams in Sacramento State (2-6, 1-4), which from earlier game results this season can not be overlooked.
However, the last two games look to be the true test for the Bobcats.
November 13th, Montana State hosts Eastern Washington (6-3, 5-1) and then visits in-state rival Montana (6-2, 3-1) November 20th.
It seems as of right now that the Bobcats have found their groove and are clicking both offensively and defensively.
The Big Sky race is not won yet but if the Bobcats continue to play they way they played last week at Northern Arizona, it just might be. And then the Bobcats will have earned their third straight Big Sky Conference title trophy.
One thing will be different this year then in the past two years should the 'Cats continue to win. They will truly be deserving of their I-AA playoff spot and just might see a home playoff game in Bozeman-a thing that has not happened since 1984 when the 'Cats last won a playoff game and actually won the I-AA title.
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I-AA West Game of the Week
Last Week-Sam Houston State 31 Stephen F. Austin 28
With 17 seconds left to play, the SFA Lumberjacks trotted kicker Ryan Rossner on the field to attempt a potential game-tying 40-yard field. A year after burying the Sam Houston State Bearkats with a 52-yarder last season, Rossner's kick never got past the line of scrimmage. SHSU defensive lineman Steven Hagler got a hand on the ball to seal a 31-28 win for the Bearkats.
Sam Houston State bolted out to a 14-0 lead, scoring on its first play from scrimmage when Dustin Long connected with Jason Mathenia on a 57-yard touchdown pass to make it 7-0 in the first quarter. The Bearkats added another touchdown on a 16-yard pass from Long to Bernard Campbell to go up by 14-0 before SFA found the endzone.
The 'Jacks' Tony Tompkins caught a short pass from quarterback Michael Williams and raced 53-yards to the endzone to make it 14-7 half way through the second quarter. SHSU added a field goal later in the period to go up 17-7 and SFA scored with just seconds left on a Miguel Toulon five yard reception from Williams to make it 17-14 at the half.
SFA scored the first points of the second half to go ahead 21-17, only to see Sam Houston come right back three minutes later to move back on top 24-21 on Long's third TD pass of the day.
Wide receiver Matt Bodley caught a 14 yd pass from Williams to put SFA up 28-24 early in the fourth quarter.
Sam Houston got the game winner when Long threw his fourth touchdown pass of the day to Bernard Campbell to put the Bearkats up 31-28.
Trailing by three, SFA got the ball back with 3:08 left on the clock and moved from their own eight yard line to the Sam Houston 22-yard line before the Ryan Rossner 39-yard field goal attempt was blocked.
The win moved SHSU to 7-1 overall and 2-0 in Southland play while SFA dropped to 5-3 overall and 0-2 in the Southland.
Next week, the Bearkats host McNeese State and the Lumberjacks visit Nicholls State.
This Week-Cal Poly (7-1) at Eastern Washington (5-3)
Cal Poly is coming off a tough loss last week at home to Great West foe UC Davis (36-33) to end their undefeated season hopes. This week, the Mustangs go to Cheney, Washington to see if they can rebound.
Eastern Washington is coming off a 45-10 thrashing of Sacramento State and the Eagles are still in the thick of the Big Sky race (5-1 in conference).
Eastern lost their first two games of the season at the Southland's Nicholls State and at I-A Air Force. The Eagles then rattled off four straight wins before losing to Montana 31-28. The Eagles, however, have strung two victories in a row since the loss.
Cal Poly has had its share of close games this season as they were mainly dependant on their defense and special teams to win games early in the season.
However, the Mustang offense has come alive in two of the past three weeks in scoring 33 points against UC Davis last week and 38 points against Texas State three weeks ago. North Dakota State held the Mustangs to just 13 points and seven were scored directly on an interception.
The Eagles defense has given up 21.3 points per game and as of late has been even more stingy. Last week, EWU gave up 10 points to Sacramento State and just seven to Weber State prior to that.
The Mustang defense maybe the key in this game. Last week, they gave up 38 points to UC Davis, which is very unlike what we have seen prior to that game.
I think the game will be a low scoring, defensive battle with Cal Poly coming away with a big road victory to sure-up their playoff spot. I will take the Mustangs by three.
I-AA West News & Notes
-Montana lost its first Big Sky Conference game at Portland State, 35-32. The Grizzlies are now 6-2 overall and 3-1 in Big Sky play.
-Northwestern State lost 30-17 at North Dakota State in the Demons' second straight loss after winning five in a row. The lost 40-14 to Nicholls State the week previous. The Demons sit at 5-3 overall and are 1-1 in the Southland Conference. NDSU upped their mark to 6-3 overall.
-Weber State won their first game of the season, 26-14 at Idaho State. The Wildcats now sit at 1-8 overall and 1-5 in the Big Sky Conference. Idaho State drops to 2-6 on the year and 1-4 in league play.
-Texas State improved their Southland record to 2-0 after defeating McNeese State 54-27. The Bobcats sit at 4-4 overall, while McNeese State fell to 3-5 overall and 0-2 in SLC play.
-Southeastern Louisiana lost to the SWAC's Alcorn State 33-27 to drop the Lions' record to 5-3 overall.
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