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Sagarin Rankings

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monte is a character

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I have seen several posts touting the Sagarin rating as being the most accurate ranking system among the many out there. I just saw the latest Sagarin rankings, and Montana is ranked #120 among all college teams. But what is interesting is that we rank only #21 among all FCS teams. Yet we are ranked #7 in the most popular poll. Somebody is very wrong.
 
monte is a character said:
I have seen several posts touting the Sagarin rating as being the most accurate ranking system among the many out there. I just saw the latest Sagarin rankings, and Montana is ranked #120 among all college teams. But what is interesting is that we rank only #21 among all FCS teams. Yet we are ranked #7 in the most popular poll. Somebody is very wrong.
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Massey Composite which uses 31 polls, including Sagarin, in the composite has the Griz at 19. http://www.masseyratings.com/cf/compare1aa.htm
 
These polls are a crap shoot. I wish we knew who was truly casting the coaches votes for every program. If it were actually the coaches, I'd like to take the most credibility from the coaches poll. Going into the UCD game, I thought the GRIZ were ranked considerably too high. I was thinking a top 15 FCS team. Since then, the improvement in the offense, seeing glimpses of the old JJ, better play calling, I feel the GRIZ are 7 to 10 rated FCS team.

If the offense continues to answer with needed points with good play calling, I feel the GRIZ are capable of being top 5 contending team entering the playoffs. There's just not much room for error for any top 20 FCS team. In my opinion, the FCS championship is wide open. I respect what NDSU has done over the last 3 years. I just feel they are more vulnerable this season, than the last 2 seasons. There is not 1 FCS team that has sold me so far this season. I love FCS football even more when more teams have a shot at championship. So far this year, it looks like a crapshoot. It should be an interesting playoff this season.
 
What's that old saying concerning polls? "The only poll that matters is the poll on the last day of the season".
At this point, the Griz control their own destiny. You can't ask for more than that....,
 
CV Griz Fan said:
What's that old saying concerning polls? "The only poll that matters is the poll on the last day of the season".
At this point, the Griz control their own destiny. You can't ask for more than that....,
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The NCAA SRS on selection day, unfortunately we are not privy to the information throughout the year. After that the polls are done, and it is all about performing in the tourney.
 
There are misleading points of convergence with Sagarin ratings and poll rankings, but they're really apples and oranges.

Ratings provide you with a mathematical tool for predicting outcome, at least to the point of predicting the probable point spread based on past results not only of two specific opponents, but a field of subjects producing data under the same terms.

Rankings are at based on win loss record and badly skewed by opinion. There is little to no prediction value in rankings--at least when it comes to actually deciding point spread.
The only thing Sagarin "ranks" is strength of schedule and that ranking is only a comparison of how a particular team's schedule compares to the ratings teams in the top 10 and top 30. Even that is based on an average of ratings for your opponents, not a poll-style ranking.

Anyone who suggests that Sagarin ratings are actually rankings of teams 1 through 252 misses the purpose of the scheme entirely.
 
Brock Landers said:
It's NDSU, Illinois State, Villanova, and then everyone else at this point
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I would add a general "some surprise team that happens to peak at the right time and avoid key injuries at the end of the regular season and into the playoffs."
 
Brock Landers said:
It's NDSU, Illinois State, Villanova, and then everyone else at this point
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It's NDSU until someone beats them. Illinois State and Villanova don't look that good...

The Big Sky will make some waves in the playoffs this year...
 
marceagfan5 said:
Brock Landers said:
It's NDSU, Illinois State, Villanova, and then everyone else at this point
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It's NDSU until someone beats them. Illinois State and Villanova don't look that good...

The Big Sky will make some waves in the playoffs this year...
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No shit. I have yet to figure out everybody's love affair with 'Nova. I've watched parts of 3 of their games....they look slow.
 
AZGrizFan said:
marceagfan5 said:
Brock Landers said:
It's NDSU, Illinois State, Villanova, and then everyone else at this point
Click to expand...

It's NDSU until someone beats them. Illinois State and Villanova don't look that good...

The Big Sky will make some waves in the playoffs this year...
Click to expand...

No shit. I have yet to figure out everybody's love affair with 'Nova. I've watched parts of 3 of their games....they look slow.
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Completely agree, they may end up being good, but I don't think they have really shown it yet. Their best win is against 4-3 W&M and they almost beat Syracuse. They haven't played a team in the top 5 of their conf this year...
 
I think we proved there's not much difference between NDSU and us. Sure, they're really good but beatable. I know, we'd have to play almost perfect but that's why they play the games.
 
griz4life said:
There are misleading points of convergence with Sagarin ratings and poll rankings, but they're really apples and oranges.

Ratings provide you with a mathematical tool for predicting outcome, at least to the point of predicting the probable point spread based on past results not only of two specific opponents, but a field of subjects producing data under the same terms.

Rankings are at based on win loss record and badly skewed by opinion. There is little to no prediction value in rankings--at least when it comes to actually deciding point spread.
The only thing Sagarin "ranks" is strength of schedule and that ranking is only a comparison of how a particular team's schedule compares to the ratings teams in the top 10 and top 30. Even that is based on an average of ratings for your opponents, not a poll-style ranking.

Anyone who suggests that Sagarin ratings are actually rankings of teams 1 through 252 misses the purpose of the scheme entirely.
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I see your point, and totally understand how Sagarin rankings are formulated. That being said, at least they take into account the strength of the opponents which each team plays, instead of just focusing on a W/L record. So I think the Sagarin rankings are much closer to the real world than any of the others which tend to be totally subjective. I do not think we are a top 10 team this season. If we had our two offensive tackles playing, then I think we would be. But our line will struggle against any playoff caliber team.
 
BadlandsGrizFan said:
Polls are the dumbest freaking thing ever invented...ever...period!
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I was going to go with that blanket sweatshirt thingy...but ranking teams before the season starts is right up there....
 
I would much rather see more conference against other conference games and drop the up/down games across the board so the entire FCS can get a better picture of how teams truly stack up against each other. That would be more accurate than any poll.
 
grizare#1 said:
I would much rather see more conference against other conference games and drop the up/down games across the board so the entire FCS can get a better picture of how teams truly stack up against each other. That would be more accurate than any poll.
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I think most everyone would agree with you. But most FCS programs need one -- and many two -- FBS games to balance the checkbook. And programs like Montana need the DII game to ensure we get 6 home games a year.

I think that UM does it about as well as it can be done in a non-perfect system. You play "up" every 3 years or so, and you play a DII when you have a 12 game season. Otherwise, you try to schedule good FCS non-conference games. And UM has certainly done that the last half dozen years or so (NDSU, App, McNeese, Liberty, etc).
 
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