We’re now headed into the meat of the conference schedule, the next 3 weeks we’ll see if the Griz are legit or pretenders. This week the team is off to play the ever-tricky Cal Poly and their option attack. Poly started the season off with a thud, having many players arrested and kicked off the team. However they’ve recovered a bit and have won 3 in a row and 4 in their last 5.
Looking at this matchup I fear this has upset written all over it. Consider the facts.
1. The Griz on the road are scoring an average of 13.3 points per game. Poly at home is scoring 42 points per game (in just 2 games – however their scoring offense is averaging 33.3 points per game).
2. Articles from the Missoulian suggest that Poly has been focused on getting revenge after a very stinging loss to the Griz last season.
3. The Davis game showed me some areas of concern in the rush defense. Missed assignments and wide open running lanes for a good portion of the game. Poly will exploit that all day long.
Will the Griz lose? I don’t know, but unlike early road-games this season the Griz are facing a team that is built to put points up on the board. If our defense falters a bit and our offense goes stone cold again it could be a long day. On the other hand if the offense can put up strong numbers and buck the trend of low-scoring performances on the road, the Griz stand a good chance to get out of Poly with a win.
Cal Poly Mustangs: 4-3
28-10 loss to New Mexico State: I thought for sure that Poly would run all over NMSU, Idaho’s twin brother as the doormat in the FBS. Instead NMSU controlled a good chunk of the game and held a comfy lead throughout. Poly ran for 260 but only passed for 6 total yards. NMSU ran for 200, passed for 150, and forced 2 Poly turnovers. NMSU also controlled the clock in a major way, keeping the ball for almost 37:00.
44-18 loss to South Dakota State: Not the total blowout the score suggests it was, the score was 16-12 in SDSU’s favor at the half and 23-12 heading into the 4th quarter. From there though SDSU rattled off 21 4th quarter points and put the game way out of reach. SDSU ran for 320 yards and their stud RB Zenner had about 195 of those. Poly did put up 226 on the ground and also got about 200 passing yards.
42-14 win vs Portland State: Poly ran for an incredible amount of yards, 470 total, and they only threw 7 passes. The game was a total blowout. Poly held the ball for 35:00 and converted 50% of their 3rd downs, and two 4th down conversions.
38-35 loss vs NAU: Boy NAU sure loves last-second wins don’t they? I saw them do that this last weekend against PSU as well. NAU scored with 21 seconds left in the game to take the deciding win, it was a back and forth game the whole way. There were 7 lead changes through the game. Poly ran for 270 and passed for 215, while NAU ran for 200 and passed for about 300.
42-39 win vs Southern Utah: Poly held on to win this one, another back and forth game but it was a little different than the NAU loss the week before. Poly was up 21-0 at the end of the 1st quarter, but SUU scored 24 points in the 2nd quarter and early in the 3rd quarter to grab a 24-21 lead. From there Poly and SUU traded TDs, Poly then scored 14 unanswered to go up 42-31. With 3:20 left in the game SUU scored and converted a 2 point attempt to get within 3. SUU, however, never got the ball back, they couldn’t keep Poly from running out the clock. SUU passed for 402 yards while Poly ran for 450. Poly was +2 in turnovers and held onto the ball for 38:28.
30-24 win vs Weber State: Yet another back and forth game! Once again 7 lead changes but it was one of those games where Poly vastly out-played and out-gained Weber, they just gave up a few easy points that kept the game close. Weber scored on a 70 yard run in a 1-play drive in the 2nd and scored on a 94 yard kickoff return for a TD. In the 4th Poly grabbed the lead at 30-24 and from there Weber couldn’t get much going, they did miss a fieldgoal attempt but otherwise didn’t move the ball much. Poly ran for about 280 and passed for 220, once again they controlled the clock, 35:30 TOP.
56-27 win vs Sac State: It was looking like yet another barn burner with Poly holding a 21-20 lead at the half. From there though Poly scored 35 points in the 2nd half and Sac scored only 7. Sac had 3 turnovers and let Poly rush for almost 400 yards. Meanwhile Poly did give up about 330 passing yards.
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General Stats:
Looking at how each team piles up their yards per game there’s really not a lot of surprises here. True to form, the Griz offense and defense are very similar to each other. Meanwhile Poly rushes for a crap-ton of yards every game and passes for a bit. Poly’s defense has some gaps, they allow hefty passing and rushing yards.
When you break down and look at the points per game we see that Poly’s defense is allowing just about as much as they’re scoring. Meanwhile the Griz aren’t keeping pace in scoring like Poly is, but their defense remains the lowest scoring allowed in the conference.
In the Red Zone this is where the game could be won or lost. The Grizzly RZ defense took a bit of a hit allowing 4 of 4 against Davis but it’s still allowing TDs at a rate less than 50% of the time. Meanwhile we can see that Poly scores their TDs a ton but also allows TDs in the red zone, even more than what Montana is used to averaging. How often does Poly go for TDs in the red zone? They’ve only attempted TWO fieldgoals this whole season.
Point scoring per quarter, first let’s look at how the offenses and defenses stack up. Montana’s offense opens strong and cools off in the 4th – however Poly’s defense really has only shown strength in the opening quarter but then the floodgates open. On the other side of the ball you can see that Poly doesn’t ever drop off in scoring, they’re very consistent. Obviously the one item of concern that jumps out to me is Montana’s 4th quarter, they slip and allow more points late.
Offense to Offense we can see how Poly just keeps on trucking while the Griz tend to taper off. Defense to defense you can see where UM’s best opportunity is – get that lead in the 2nd and 3rd quarter!
Some other general stats:
- With one exception Poly wins their games when they win on T.O.P. They average 31:16 per game on offense.
- Poly converts 3rd downs at a rate of 46% while the Griz defense allows 3rd down conversions at a rate of 36%. Meanwhile Poly’s defense allows 3rd down conversions at a rate of 47% while the Grizzly offense converts 3rd downs 38% of the time.
- Poly has just 7 sacks the whole season.
- Poly is +4 this season in turnovers, even though they’re a triple option team they’ve only lost 3 fumbles. Meanwhile the Griz still sit at +7 after neither forcing nor losing any turnovers this last week.
- 4th down is no biggie for Cal Poly. Add in the fact that they hardly attempt fieldgoals. They’ve converted 12 4th downs on 16 attempts. (Compare to the Griz who have converted 4 of 6).
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Players to watch:
#9 Chris Brown, QB – I believe that Brown was the starter last year but was injured early in the season. So far this season as the QB of the team Brown leads in rushing yards, averaging 90 yards per game (630 total on the season) and has 8 rushing touchdowns. He’s averaging about 132 passing yards per game and has 7 passing TDs and 3 interceptions.
#31 Brandon Howe, FB – The bruiser fullback in the triple option, Howe averages 67 yards per game and has 6 TDs this season so far. He’s 2nd in total carries on the team this year. He’s also pulled in 7 passes for 90 yards and 1 TD.
#27 Kori Garcia, SB – The slot-back in the system Garcia has the best yards per carry by far. He’s got 90 carries to Brown’s 130 and Howe’s 106 – but he averages 82 yards per game and has a 6.4 ypc average. He’s got 4 TDs on the ground and has 1 receiving TD with 46 receiving yards this season.
#12 Roland Jackson JR, WR – The guy our pass defense CAN NOT forget about. Get this, he’s got just 9 catches this season. Of those 9 catches he’s got 335 yards (37.2 yards per catch). Jackson is the big home-run guy in the passing game.
#8 Jordan Hines, WR – A big 6-2 wide receiver, he leads the team in receptions and has 201 receiving yards and 2 TDs this season so far, he’s the only WR with multiple TDs.
#6 Chris Nicholls, SB – Another slot-back that is kind of the multi-purpose guy. He’s a smaller dude at 5-8 170 pounds. He’s 4th in rushing yards with 240 on the season and 2 TDs. However he’s tied for 1st in total receptions with Hines, but has just 98 receiving yards. He’s also the main kick and punt returner – no real flashy numbers there a 4 yard per punt return average and an 18.8 yard return average on kicks. All-in-all he averages about 80 all-purpose yards per game.
#41 Nick Dzubnar, LB – This guy. He’s got 102 tackles… this season. In just 7 games. He leads the FCS in total tackles. He’s got 6 TFLs, 1.5 sacks, and 1 interception.
#4 Cameron Ontko, LB – Another linebacker that’s always around the ball. 2nd on the team in tackles with 64, he’s got 4 TFLs, and 1 sack.
#48 Josh Letuligasenoa, LB – Rounding out the starting LB corps, Josh is a freshman but is 3rd on the team in tackles with 45, he’s got 1 sack and has forced 2 fumbles this season.
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Keys to a Grizzly Victory:
1. Score some damn points. A dumb main point – score more points (duh) – but what we see is that the area of opportunity for the Griz will be to get a strong lead before we get to the 4th quarter. The Poly defense doesn’t statistically pressure the QB a lot and has been labelled as a “bend but don’t break” defense. The Griz NEED to break that defense. Currently their defense is worse in the RZ than our offense, their defense allows more 3rd down conversions than our offense is used to, they allow more points per game than our offense is used to scoring, and their defense actually allows more yards than our offense is used to piling up. This all adds up – this is an opportunity for the Grizzly offense to keep going and keep building on the successes from the Davis game (mostly the 2nd half).
2. Win the red zone. The Griz on both offense and defense need to stand above Cal Poly. The biggest test will be a Poly option attack that will view the red zone as 4-down territory. If the Grizzly defense can win in the red zone on Saturday they’ll keep points off the board entirely – that’s huge.
3. Clean up the tackling from the Davis game. Suddenly the defense had more fits of missed tackles, arm tackles, shoulder-checks – some of the usual junk. It wasn’t predominant but that cannot happen against a team like Cal Poly. Don’t lose containment, stay on your assignment, little to no arm tackles, etc.
4. Don’t let Brown run wild. Put a hurt on this guy. He’s the team MVP so far and if Poly makes some noise this 2nd half of the season he will lead the charge. The defense needs to keep him uncomfortable, make him pay for last-second pitches, and not let him burn us deep on a few well-timed passes.
5. Watch the deep ball. It’s going to be suuuuper easy to keep creeping up to contain the edge and lose cover on these two burner receivers that Poly has. They’ll be lulling the secondary to sleep and will try to heave some deep shots. In prior years it’s worked well for Poly against the Griz.
6. Control the clock. Poly wins when they hold the ball for a long time. Don’t let them do that, keep the ball out of their hands. Long and drawn-out TD drives coupled with a few short drives and punts by Poly will help the Griz control this game.
7. More pistol offense for JJ. Loved that against Davis, gave him time to operate and he looked much more comfortable. We need the best from Van and Canada too.
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I’m honestly torn on this. This game has upset written allllllll over it.
If we see the Griz offense that was moving and scoring from the Davis game I love our chances, they’ll keep the Griz in the lead and our defense should be able to force enough slip-ups, turnovers on downs, or punts to help them stretch the lead. That’s the perfect world example.
On the other side if our offense comes out in its usual road-game funk the entire game gets put on the back of our defense. A defense that showed some dents in the armor last week and a defense that has not faced a triple-option team with a speedy and mobile QB.
So which way will it be? Ever the optimist I see our offense continuing things from where they left off. This game will probably be a shoot-out, and I’m hoping the Griz come out on top. It could be the first team to eclipse 45 wins the game.
GO GRIZ!
Looking at this matchup I fear this has upset written all over it. Consider the facts.
1. The Griz on the road are scoring an average of 13.3 points per game. Poly at home is scoring 42 points per game (in just 2 games – however their scoring offense is averaging 33.3 points per game).
2. Articles from the Missoulian suggest that Poly has been focused on getting revenge after a very stinging loss to the Griz last season.
3. The Davis game showed me some areas of concern in the rush defense. Missed assignments and wide open running lanes for a good portion of the game. Poly will exploit that all day long.
Will the Griz lose? I don’t know, but unlike early road-games this season the Griz are facing a team that is built to put points up on the board. If our defense falters a bit and our offense goes stone cold again it could be a long day. On the other hand if the offense can put up strong numbers and buck the trend of low-scoring performances on the road, the Griz stand a good chance to get out of Poly with a win.
Cal Poly Mustangs: 4-3
28-10 loss to New Mexico State: I thought for sure that Poly would run all over NMSU, Idaho’s twin brother as the doormat in the FBS. Instead NMSU controlled a good chunk of the game and held a comfy lead throughout. Poly ran for 260 but only passed for 6 total yards. NMSU ran for 200, passed for 150, and forced 2 Poly turnovers. NMSU also controlled the clock in a major way, keeping the ball for almost 37:00.
44-18 loss to South Dakota State: Not the total blowout the score suggests it was, the score was 16-12 in SDSU’s favor at the half and 23-12 heading into the 4th quarter. From there though SDSU rattled off 21 4th quarter points and put the game way out of reach. SDSU ran for 320 yards and their stud RB Zenner had about 195 of those. Poly did put up 226 on the ground and also got about 200 passing yards.
42-14 win vs Portland State: Poly ran for an incredible amount of yards, 470 total, and they only threw 7 passes. The game was a total blowout. Poly held the ball for 35:00 and converted 50% of their 3rd downs, and two 4th down conversions.
38-35 loss vs NAU: Boy NAU sure loves last-second wins don’t they? I saw them do that this last weekend against PSU as well. NAU scored with 21 seconds left in the game to take the deciding win, it was a back and forth game the whole way. There were 7 lead changes through the game. Poly ran for 270 and passed for 215, while NAU ran for 200 and passed for about 300.
42-39 win vs Southern Utah: Poly held on to win this one, another back and forth game but it was a little different than the NAU loss the week before. Poly was up 21-0 at the end of the 1st quarter, but SUU scored 24 points in the 2nd quarter and early in the 3rd quarter to grab a 24-21 lead. From there Poly and SUU traded TDs, Poly then scored 14 unanswered to go up 42-31. With 3:20 left in the game SUU scored and converted a 2 point attempt to get within 3. SUU, however, never got the ball back, they couldn’t keep Poly from running out the clock. SUU passed for 402 yards while Poly ran for 450. Poly was +2 in turnovers and held onto the ball for 38:28.
30-24 win vs Weber State: Yet another back and forth game! Once again 7 lead changes but it was one of those games where Poly vastly out-played and out-gained Weber, they just gave up a few easy points that kept the game close. Weber scored on a 70 yard run in a 1-play drive in the 2nd and scored on a 94 yard kickoff return for a TD. In the 4th Poly grabbed the lead at 30-24 and from there Weber couldn’t get much going, they did miss a fieldgoal attempt but otherwise didn’t move the ball much. Poly ran for about 280 and passed for 220, once again they controlled the clock, 35:30 TOP.
56-27 win vs Sac State: It was looking like yet another barn burner with Poly holding a 21-20 lead at the half. From there though Poly scored 35 points in the 2nd half and Sac scored only 7. Sac had 3 turnovers and let Poly rush for almost 400 yards. Meanwhile Poly did give up about 330 passing yards.
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General Stats:
Looking at how each team piles up their yards per game there’s really not a lot of surprises here. True to form, the Griz offense and defense are very similar to each other. Meanwhile Poly rushes for a crap-ton of yards every game and passes for a bit. Poly’s defense has some gaps, they allow hefty passing and rushing yards.
When you break down and look at the points per game we see that Poly’s defense is allowing just about as much as they’re scoring. Meanwhile the Griz aren’t keeping pace in scoring like Poly is, but their defense remains the lowest scoring allowed in the conference.
In the Red Zone this is where the game could be won or lost. The Grizzly RZ defense took a bit of a hit allowing 4 of 4 against Davis but it’s still allowing TDs at a rate less than 50% of the time. Meanwhile we can see that Poly scores their TDs a ton but also allows TDs in the red zone, even more than what Montana is used to averaging. How often does Poly go for TDs in the red zone? They’ve only attempted TWO fieldgoals this whole season.
Point scoring per quarter, first let’s look at how the offenses and defenses stack up. Montana’s offense opens strong and cools off in the 4th – however Poly’s defense really has only shown strength in the opening quarter but then the floodgates open. On the other side of the ball you can see that Poly doesn’t ever drop off in scoring, they’re very consistent. Obviously the one item of concern that jumps out to me is Montana’s 4th quarter, they slip and allow more points late.
Offense to Offense we can see how Poly just keeps on trucking while the Griz tend to taper off. Defense to defense you can see where UM’s best opportunity is – get that lead in the 2nd and 3rd quarter!
Some other general stats:
- With one exception Poly wins their games when they win on T.O.P. They average 31:16 per game on offense.
- Poly converts 3rd downs at a rate of 46% while the Griz defense allows 3rd down conversions at a rate of 36%. Meanwhile Poly’s defense allows 3rd down conversions at a rate of 47% while the Grizzly offense converts 3rd downs 38% of the time.
- Poly has just 7 sacks the whole season.
- Poly is +4 this season in turnovers, even though they’re a triple option team they’ve only lost 3 fumbles. Meanwhile the Griz still sit at +7 after neither forcing nor losing any turnovers this last week.
- 4th down is no biggie for Cal Poly. Add in the fact that they hardly attempt fieldgoals. They’ve converted 12 4th downs on 16 attempts. (Compare to the Griz who have converted 4 of 6).
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Players to watch:
#9 Chris Brown, QB – I believe that Brown was the starter last year but was injured early in the season. So far this season as the QB of the team Brown leads in rushing yards, averaging 90 yards per game (630 total on the season) and has 8 rushing touchdowns. He’s averaging about 132 passing yards per game and has 7 passing TDs and 3 interceptions.
#31 Brandon Howe, FB – The bruiser fullback in the triple option, Howe averages 67 yards per game and has 6 TDs this season so far. He’s 2nd in total carries on the team this year. He’s also pulled in 7 passes for 90 yards and 1 TD.
#27 Kori Garcia, SB – The slot-back in the system Garcia has the best yards per carry by far. He’s got 90 carries to Brown’s 130 and Howe’s 106 – but he averages 82 yards per game and has a 6.4 ypc average. He’s got 4 TDs on the ground and has 1 receiving TD with 46 receiving yards this season.
#12 Roland Jackson JR, WR – The guy our pass defense CAN NOT forget about. Get this, he’s got just 9 catches this season. Of those 9 catches he’s got 335 yards (37.2 yards per catch). Jackson is the big home-run guy in the passing game.
#8 Jordan Hines, WR – A big 6-2 wide receiver, he leads the team in receptions and has 201 receiving yards and 2 TDs this season so far, he’s the only WR with multiple TDs.
#6 Chris Nicholls, SB – Another slot-back that is kind of the multi-purpose guy. He’s a smaller dude at 5-8 170 pounds. He’s 4th in rushing yards with 240 on the season and 2 TDs. However he’s tied for 1st in total receptions with Hines, but has just 98 receiving yards. He’s also the main kick and punt returner – no real flashy numbers there a 4 yard per punt return average and an 18.8 yard return average on kicks. All-in-all he averages about 80 all-purpose yards per game.
#41 Nick Dzubnar, LB – This guy. He’s got 102 tackles… this season. In just 7 games. He leads the FCS in total tackles. He’s got 6 TFLs, 1.5 sacks, and 1 interception.
#4 Cameron Ontko, LB – Another linebacker that’s always around the ball. 2nd on the team in tackles with 64, he’s got 4 TFLs, and 1 sack.
#48 Josh Letuligasenoa, LB – Rounding out the starting LB corps, Josh is a freshman but is 3rd on the team in tackles with 45, he’s got 1 sack and has forced 2 fumbles this season.
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Keys to a Grizzly Victory:
1. Score some damn points. A dumb main point – score more points (duh) – but what we see is that the area of opportunity for the Griz will be to get a strong lead before we get to the 4th quarter. The Poly defense doesn’t statistically pressure the QB a lot and has been labelled as a “bend but don’t break” defense. The Griz NEED to break that defense. Currently their defense is worse in the RZ than our offense, their defense allows more 3rd down conversions than our offense is used to, they allow more points per game than our offense is used to scoring, and their defense actually allows more yards than our offense is used to piling up. This all adds up – this is an opportunity for the Grizzly offense to keep going and keep building on the successes from the Davis game (mostly the 2nd half).
2. Win the red zone. The Griz on both offense and defense need to stand above Cal Poly. The biggest test will be a Poly option attack that will view the red zone as 4-down territory. If the Grizzly defense can win in the red zone on Saturday they’ll keep points off the board entirely – that’s huge.
3. Clean up the tackling from the Davis game. Suddenly the defense had more fits of missed tackles, arm tackles, shoulder-checks – some of the usual junk. It wasn’t predominant but that cannot happen against a team like Cal Poly. Don’t lose containment, stay on your assignment, little to no arm tackles, etc.
4. Don’t let Brown run wild. Put a hurt on this guy. He’s the team MVP so far and if Poly makes some noise this 2nd half of the season he will lead the charge. The defense needs to keep him uncomfortable, make him pay for last-second pitches, and not let him burn us deep on a few well-timed passes.
5. Watch the deep ball. It’s going to be suuuuper easy to keep creeping up to contain the edge and lose cover on these two burner receivers that Poly has. They’ll be lulling the secondary to sleep and will try to heave some deep shots. In prior years it’s worked well for Poly against the Griz.
6. Control the clock. Poly wins when they hold the ball for a long time. Don’t let them do that, keep the ball out of their hands. Long and drawn-out TD drives coupled with a few short drives and punts by Poly will help the Griz control this game.
7. More pistol offense for JJ. Loved that against Davis, gave him time to operate and he looked much more comfortable. We need the best from Van and Canada too.
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I’m honestly torn on this. This game has upset written allllllll over it.
If we see the Griz offense that was moving and scoring from the Davis game I love our chances, they’ll keep the Griz in the lead and our defense should be able to force enough slip-ups, turnovers on downs, or punts to help them stretch the lead. That’s the perfect world example.
On the other side if our offense comes out in its usual road-game funk the entire game gets put on the back of our defense. A defense that showed some dents in the armor last week and a defense that has not faced a triple-option team with a speedy and mobile QB.
So which way will it be? Ever the optimist I see our offense continuing things from where they left off. This game will probably be a shoot-out, and I’m hoping the Griz come out on top. It could be the first team to eclipse 45 wins the game.
GO GRIZ!
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