It’s playoff time in Grizland – and our first draw is a beast of a team in the South Dakota State Jackrabbits. I believe the largest two comeback wins the Griz have ever had were both against SDSU. The Jackrabbits were a top 10 team until their double overtime loss this weekend to also playoff-bound Western Illinois. Looking at SDSU’s schedule they played a stretch where 5 of the 6 teams they faced were ranked and they went 4-1 against those teams, including beating then #2 Illinois State. That said, here’s our 1st round opponent;
South Dakota State Jackrabbits: 8-3
41-38 win @ Kansas – SDSU made an early statement in the opening week taking down an FBS team in Kansas. In the game the Jacks jumped out to a large early lead, scoring 31 points in the first half and holding a 31-14 lead halfway through. Opening the 2nd half KU got back in the game scoring 14 unanswered and making it 31-28. Each team traded a fieldgoal setting the score at 34-31 into the 4th. With 6 minutes left in the game SDSU scored a TD to grab a 10 point lead, KU answered to make it 41-38 with just about 2:30 left in the game. KU made a stop and got the ball back with about 40 seconds left, got into a fieldgoal range on a deep pass but then their QB made a terrible decision and ran with the ball, with no timeouts, the clock wound out and SDSU held on to win. In the game KU had 576 total yards of offense, fairly balanced as well – SDSU passed for almost 300 yards. KU went -2 in the game.
55-10 win vs Southern Utah – The eventual Big Sky champs were routed in this game. SDSU’s offense was able to destroy SUU’s defense, passing for almost 400 yards and rushing for nearly 200. SUU was held to just 268 total yards of offense. SDSU really controlled the clock, won the turnover battle, and were deadly good on 3rd down, 12-16 conversions.
34-10 win vs Robert Morris – RMU didn’t stand much of a chance in this one. SDSU again passed for almost 400 yards and gradually just out-paced RMU who was held to just about 270 yards of total offense in the game. SDSU was a little sloppy, 2 lost picks, but their defense didn’t allow RMU to do much with them.
7-28 loss vs North Dakota State – NDSU travelled to SDSU and many were thinking SDSU had a shot for an upset. Not the case. NDSU ran for 202 and passed for 183 in the game and held the ball for almost 40:00 of TOP. SDSU finished with a grand total of -4 (yes negative) yards rushing and just 242 yards of passing. NDSU was even -2 in turnovers but their ball control and domination in rush defense didn’t let SDSU get anything going.
24-7 win vs Indiana State – Back on track the SDSU defense locked down ISU and held them to under 200 passing and just 86 rushing. SDSU found some more balance in their offense in this game, they ran for 181 and passed for 247. SDSU really got after ISU’s QB, 6 sacks in the game.
38-8 win vs Youngstown State – It was kind a slow moving game with a handful of fieldgoals and a YSU safety, finally halfway through the 3rd SDSU got rolling, scoring the final 21 points of the game and blowing out YSU. SDSU rushed for 212 and passed for just 120 in the game, of their 212 rushing 70 of it came on one long TD run. YSU was held to just 278 total yards and was 2 of 15 on 3rd down.
7-10 loss vs Northern Iowa – SDSU hit a wall of a defense against UNI and with their backup QB starting their offense couldn’t do much at all. UNI ran for 220 and passed for about 115, meanwhile SDSU was held to 95 rushing and 165 passing. Lots of punts in this game, the teams were a combined 6 for 26 on 3rd downs. SDSU had a chance late to tie the game, they were facing a 4th and 1 with 1:30 left in the game on the UNI 10 yard line. Instead they opted to attempt a rush for a 1st – they were stuffed for a 1 yard loss and turned the ball over on downs, game over.
39-0 win @ Missouri State – With their starting QB back SDSU got back on track and destroyed Missouri State. With 318 passing and 120 rushing it was a fairly easy win for the Jackrabbits. MSU had just 211 total yards of offense.
25-20 win vs Illinois State – Then ranked 2nd in the nation ISU couldn’t do enough to beat what appeared to be a mistake-prone SDSU. I can’t tell but it looked like SDSU’s starting QB, Lujan, either got hurt or was pulled for ineffectiveness… tough to say. Both teams had almost identical yards, 462 for ISU and 465 for SDSU. Their passing and rushing yards were identical as well. The difference were that SDSU tossed 3 interceptions while ISU had just 1. ISU’s possible undoing was their stalling in the RZ, they were 2-4 scoring in the RZ and missed two fieldgoals.
30-23 win vs South Dakota – What a comeback by SDSU! Down 20-10 in the 4th quarter they scored 20 unanswered points including one on a pick-6 TD. SDSU again used two QBs, they passed for a combined 281 yards. USD gave this game away when you just read the stats, they outgained SDSU, held the ball for more TOP, were way better on 3rd down as well. USD had the costly pick 6 and opted for too many fieldgoals instead of TDs and that would do it.
24-30 loss @ Western Illinois – It was tied 17-17 at the end of regulation, in the 1st OT both teams scored TDs, in the 2nd SDSU missed a fieldgoal attempt, not leaving anything to chance WIU went down and scored a TD to seal the win… and their post-season. Both teams ran for a ton of yards, 246 for SDSU, 230 for WIU. SDSU passed for about 250 and WIU passed for 280. Turnovers killed SDSU, 3 picks and 1 lost fumble – also more red zone issues, just 3-6 scoring in the RZ.
---------------
General Stats
Passing Yards Montana (283 ypg vs 274 ypg)
Rushing Yards Montana (155 ypg vs 142 ypg)
Total Offense Montana (438 ypg vs 416 ypg)
Pass Defense SDSU (190 ypg allowed vs 199 ypg allowed)
Rush Defense SDSU (177 ypg allowed vs 190 ypg allowed)
Total Defense SDSU (367 ypg allowed vs 389 ypg allowed)
No advantage! 3-3 tie, Montana the slightly better offense, SDSU the slightly better defense. Statistically these teams are VERY close to each other when you look at yardage.
Offensive Points scored Montana (31.9 vs 29.5 ppg)
Defensive Points allowed SDSU (16.7 vs 24.2 ppg allowed)
Turnover Margin SDSU (+5 in turnovers while UM is +3)
Fieldgoal % Montana (79% made vs 66.6% made)
Punt Returns Montana (6.9 ypr vs 3.8 ypr)
Kick Returns SDSU (23.6 ypr vs 19.9 ypr)
T.O.P. SDSU (31:32 vs 26:47)
Red zone defense (touchdowns) SDSU (54% allowed TDs vs UM at 56% allowed)
Red zone offense (touchdowns) SDSU (54% scored vs UM that’s 45% scored)
3rd down offense SDSU (converts 39% while UM converts 38%)
3rd down defense Montana (allows 33% while SDSU allowed 38%
Advantage SDSU 7 to 4. However just like the yardage comparison, many of these are very close.
-----------------
Players to watch
#19 Jake Weineke, WR – First and foremost this guy needs incredible respect from our pass defense. A 1st team all-MVFC player as a sophomore he’s got 1344 receiving yards this season and 11 receiving TDs. Weineke counts for 65% of ALL receiving yards for the team and 52% of all receiving TDs. He’s a big 6-4 kid, only Kupp at EWU will have been a better WR that we’ve seen.
#16 Zach Lujan, QB – Lujan has had an up/down season and missed two games with an ankle injury, he’s also been subbed out in a few other games. Lujan on the season is averaging about 210 yards per game and 14 TDs to 6 INTs. He’s not much of a rushing threat.
#1 Taryn Christion, QB - What’s interesting is Lujan’s backup is a true freshman kid that’s a much more mobile QB. This reminds me of the EWU QB situation we saw. I’m not sure if or what we’ll see from Christion but he’s a smaller and quicker QB, he’s rushed for almost 300 yards and 4 TDs. In his 7 games played he’s averaging about 150 passing and had 6 passing TDs to 3 INTs.
#44 Brady Mengarelli, RB – the main running back in SDSU’s rushing game, Brady has about 740 rushing yards this season and 6 TDs on the ground. He’s a very good pass catching back as well, with 220 receiving yards and 2 TDs. Brady’s 5-10 and 195 pounds.
#32 Kyle Paris, RB – Paris is the 2nd option in the rush game and we’ll see a lot of him as well presumably. He’s got almost 400 yards on the ground this season and 6 rushing TDs as well. Not nearly as much of a pass catcher, just 81 total yards. A bit bigger than Mengarelli at 6-1, 200 pounds.
#86 Dallas Goedert, TE – coming off a game where we got burnt by MSU’s TE we’re going to see another pretty good TE in Goedert. He’s got 441 yards and 2 TDs this season. SDSU is going to watch the MSU tape and I assume will use the 6-5, 245 TE quite a bit in the passing game.
#7 Jesse Bobbit, LB – The 6-2, 210 pound linebacker leads the team in tackles with 94, he’s also got 6.5 TFLs, 1 sack, 1 INT, and 1 forced and recovered fumble.
#24 Nick Farina, S – Farina is one of the starting safeties, he’s got 52 tackles which is 3rd best on the team, he also has 2 INTs.
#25 Jimmie Forsythe, CB – A guy that will be expected to do a lot in the pass game, Forsythe has a team best 8 PBU’s, he’s also got 2 INTs and has even blocked a kick. He’s got 41 tackles on the season.
#33 TJ Lally, LB – A 6-2, 200 pound linebacker, no eye popping special stats but he’s 2nd best on the team in tackles with 88, he’s also got 1 fumble recovery this season.
#54 Cole Langer, DL – A 6-4, 285 pound D-lineman he’s tied for the team lead with 4 sacks. He’s also got 9 TFLs, 38 TFLs, 1 forced fumble, and a team best 5 QB hits.
--------------------
Keys to a Grizzly victory
1. Force 3 or more turnovers. SDSU’s losses and closer games were usually mired with some turnovers, more interceptions than anything as SDSU has only lost 1 fumble the whole season. Our LB’s and secondary will need to get after some passes and we’ll need pressure from Holmes and company to force quick throws.
2. Don’t let SDSU hold the ball for 35:00+ TOP. Many of their wins weren’t the prettiest but they put teams away by not letting them have the ball much. I’m not saying that the Griz need to win TOP since I don’t think they’ve done that once this year, but we can’t have a massive deficit in TOP.
3. Use the run to set up the pass. SDSU’s pass defense statistically is pretty good, however they’ve not faced a lot of pass-heavy offenses. I think the MSU and EWU game plans could carry over here – more runs than passes but use that to set up long bomb TDs. We need this O-line to keep on improving and hopefully opening more running lanes.
4. Prevent the big play and put a man on the TE. Hopefully getting burnt all day by Sandland forces some adjustments in our defensive coverage or awareness. SDSU will be looking to attack our safeties as well.
5. Keep #19 under control. Just like the Griz did for Kupp and NAU’s Butler (for the most part) the Griz can really break up the SDSU offense by not letting Weinekie go nuts in the secondary.
6. Execute in the redzone. Get points, obviously preferably TDs – but don’t come away from the RZ empty handed. The Griz have been steadily improving the RZ and need that to keep going.
7. Limit big plays. Goes without saying, the big play remains our enemy – we keep seeing teams get long gains and big scores on the nefarious big play that gets our guys out of position. I don’t necessarily know if SDSU has more electric playmakers except their WR than we’ve seen in recent weeks, but they’ve shown statistically they make very few errors and execute quite well.
8. 38+ points on offense. Realize that even though the thanksgiving weekend crowd is crazy and fun… SDSU won’t be phased. They’ve played in front of equal size and bigger crowds on the road this year and have done just fine. Furthermore on the road SDSU is scoring almost 35 points per game! There’s no ill effects to these guys on the road. The offense needs to come ready to keep scoring like they’ve been the last two weeks.
9. Bend but don’t break on defense. SDSU’s yardage per game suggests they know how to get their yards – but their kicker isn’t the most accurate (14-21 on the season) and so set up situations where they have to rely on feildgoal attempts vs scoring TDs.
-------------------------------
This is quite the evenly matched game when you compare stats, it’s pretty wild. This one is anyone’s guess. SDSU is good on the road, UM is historically good at home but has lost two this year at home alone. What I like about our chances here are comparing the teams in the last two weeks. UM has found it’s stride, scoring big points and beating better teams. SDSU needed a comeback against a 5-6 team and then lost in 2OT to a 6-5 team. Momentum might be on our side here.
I love this first round in the playoffs because many times those that attend are usually the most frenzied. While it’ll be 17,000 – 19,000 total… it’s going to be a fun place come Saturday. With the momentum and now the return of Crittenden on defense I’ll say Griz keep it rolling, in a close fight… 38-28.
GO GRIZ!
South Dakota State Jackrabbits: 8-3
41-38 win @ Kansas – SDSU made an early statement in the opening week taking down an FBS team in Kansas. In the game the Jacks jumped out to a large early lead, scoring 31 points in the first half and holding a 31-14 lead halfway through. Opening the 2nd half KU got back in the game scoring 14 unanswered and making it 31-28. Each team traded a fieldgoal setting the score at 34-31 into the 4th. With 6 minutes left in the game SDSU scored a TD to grab a 10 point lead, KU answered to make it 41-38 with just about 2:30 left in the game. KU made a stop and got the ball back with about 40 seconds left, got into a fieldgoal range on a deep pass but then their QB made a terrible decision and ran with the ball, with no timeouts, the clock wound out and SDSU held on to win. In the game KU had 576 total yards of offense, fairly balanced as well – SDSU passed for almost 300 yards. KU went -2 in the game.
55-10 win vs Southern Utah – The eventual Big Sky champs were routed in this game. SDSU’s offense was able to destroy SUU’s defense, passing for almost 400 yards and rushing for nearly 200. SUU was held to just 268 total yards of offense. SDSU really controlled the clock, won the turnover battle, and were deadly good on 3rd down, 12-16 conversions.
34-10 win vs Robert Morris – RMU didn’t stand much of a chance in this one. SDSU again passed for almost 400 yards and gradually just out-paced RMU who was held to just about 270 yards of total offense in the game. SDSU was a little sloppy, 2 lost picks, but their defense didn’t allow RMU to do much with them.
7-28 loss vs North Dakota State – NDSU travelled to SDSU and many were thinking SDSU had a shot for an upset. Not the case. NDSU ran for 202 and passed for 183 in the game and held the ball for almost 40:00 of TOP. SDSU finished with a grand total of -4 (yes negative) yards rushing and just 242 yards of passing. NDSU was even -2 in turnovers but their ball control and domination in rush defense didn’t let SDSU get anything going.
24-7 win vs Indiana State – Back on track the SDSU defense locked down ISU and held them to under 200 passing and just 86 rushing. SDSU found some more balance in their offense in this game, they ran for 181 and passed for 247. SDSU really got after ISU’s QB, 6 sacks in the game.
38-8 win vs Youngstown State – It was kind a slow moving game with a handful of fieldgoals and a YSU safety, finally halfway through the 3rd SDSU got rolling, scoring the final 21 points of the game and blowing out YSU. SDSU rushed for 212 and passed for just 120 in the game, of their 212 rushing 70 of it came on one long TD run. YSU was held to just 278 total yards and was 2 of 15 on 3rd down.
7-10 loss vs Northern Iowa – SDSU hit a wall of a defense against UNI and with their backup QB starting their offense couldn’t do much at all. UNI ran for 220 and passed for about 115, meanwhile SDSU was held to 95 rushing and 165 passing. Lots of punts in this game, the teams were a combined 6 for 26 on 3rd downs. SDSU had a chance late to tie the game, they were facing a 4th and 1 with 1:30 left in the game on the UNI 10 yard line. Instead they opted to attempt a rush for a 1st – they were stuffed for a 1 yard loss and turned the ball over on downs, game over.
39-0 win @ Missouri State – With their starting QB back SDSU got back on track and destroyed Missouri State. With 318 passing and 120 rushing it was a fairly easy win for the Jackrabbits. MSU had just 211 total yards of offense.
25-20 win vs Illinois State – Then ranked 2nd in the nation ISU couldn’t do enough to beat what appeared to be a mistake-prone SDSU. I can’t tell but it looked like SDSU’s starting QB, Lujan, either got hurt or was pulled for ineffectiveness… tough to say. Both teams had almost identical yards, 462 for ISU and 465 for SDSU. Their passing and rushing yards were identical as well. The difference were that SDSU tossed 3 interceptions while ISU had just 1. ISU’s possible undoing was their stalling in the RZ, they were 2-4 scoring in the RZ and missed two fieldgoals.
30-23 win vs South Dakota – What a comeback by SDSU! Down 20-10 in the 4th quarter they scored 20 unanswered points including one on a pick-6 TD. SDSU again used two QBs, they passed for a combined 281 yards. USD gave this game away when you just read the stats, they outgained SDSU, held the ball for more TOP, were way better on 3rd down as well. USD had the costly pick 6 and opted for too many fieldgoals instead of TDs and that would do it.
24-30 loss @ Western Illinois – It was tied 17-17 at the end of regulation, in the 1st OT both teams scored TDs, in the 2nd SDSU missed a fieldgoal attempt, not leaving anything to chance WIU went down and scored a TD to seal the win… and their post-season. Both teams ran for a ton of yards, 246 for SDSU, 230 for WIU. SDSU passed for about 250 and WIU passed for 280. Turnovers killed SDSU, 3 picks and 1 lost fumble – also more red zone issues, just 3-6 scoring in the RZ.
---------------
General Stats
Passing Yards Montana (283 ypg vs 274 ypg)
Rushing Yards Montana (155 ypg vs 142 ypg)
Total Offense Montana (438 ypg vs 416 ypg)
Pass Defense SDSU (190 ypg allowed vs 199 ypg allowed)
Rush Defense SDSU (177 ypg allowed vs 190 ypg allowed)
Total Defense SDSU (367 ypg allowed vs 389 ypg allowed)
No advantage! 3-3 tie, Montana the slightly better offense, SDSU the slightly better defense. Statistically these teams are VERY close to each other when you look at yardage.
Offensive Points scored Montana (31.9 vs 29.5 ppg)
Defensive Points allowed SDSU (16.7 vs 24.2 ppg allowed)
Turnover Margin SDSU (+5 in turnovers while UM is +3)
Fieldgoal % Montana (79% made vs 66.6% made)
Punt Returns Montana (6.9 ypr vs 3.8 ypr)
Kick Returns SDSU (23.6 ypr vs 19.9 ypr)
T.O.P. SDSU (31:32 vs 26:47)
Red zone defense (touchdowns) SDSU (54% allowed TDs vs UM at 56% allowed)
Red zone offense (touchdowns) SDSU (54% scored vs UM that’s 45% scored)
3rd down offense SDSU (converts 39% while UM converts 38%)
3rd down defense Montana (allows 33% while SDSU allowed 38%
Advantage SDSU 7 to 4. However just like the yardage comparison, many of these are very close.
-----------------
Players to watch
#19 Jake Weineke, WR – First and foremost this guy needs incredible respect from our pass defense. A 1st team all-MVFC player as a sophomore he’s got 1344 receiving yards this season and 11 receiving TDs. Weineke counts for 65% of ALL receiving yards for the team and 52% of all receiving TDs. He’s a big 6-4 kid, only Kupp at EWU will have been a better WR that we’ve seen.
#16 Zach Lujan, QB – Lujan has had an up/down season and missed two games with an ankle injury, he’s also been subbed out in a few other games. Lujan on the season is averaging about 210 yards per game and 14 TDs to 6 INTs. He’s not much of a rushing threat.
#1 Taryn Christion, QB - What’s interesting is Lujan’s backup is a true freshman kid that’s a much more mobile QB. This reminds me of the EWU QB situation we saw. I’m not sure if or what we’ll see from Christion but he’s a smaller and quicker QB, he’s rushed for almost 300 yards and 4 TDs. In his 7 games played he’s averaging about 150 passing and had 6 passing TDs to 3 INTs.
#44 Brady Mengarelli, RB – the main running back in SDSU’s rushing game, Brady has about 740 rushing yards this season and 6 TDs on the ground. He’s a very good pass catching back as well, with 220 receiving yards and 2 TDs. Brady’s 5-10 and 195 pounds.
#32 Kyle Paris, RB – Paris is the 2nd option in the rush game and we’ll see a lot of him as well presumably. He’s got almost 400 yards on the ground this season and 6 rushing TDs as well. Not nearly as much of a pass catcher, just 81 total yards. A bit bigger than Mengarelli at 6-1, 200 pounds.
#86 Dallas Goedert, TE – coming off a game where we got burnt by MSU’s TE we’re going to see another pretty good TE in Goedert. He’s got 441 yards and 2 TDs this season. SDSU is going to watch the MSU tape and I assume will use the 6-5, 245 TE quite a bit in the passing game.
#7 Jesse Bobbit, LB – The 6-2, 210 pound linebacker leads the team in tackles with 94, he’s also got 6.5 TFLs, 1 sack, 1 INT, and 1 forced and recovered fumble.
#24 Nick Farina, S – Farina is one of the starting safeties, he’s got 52 tackles which is 3rd best on the team, he also has 2 INTs.
#25 Jimmie Forsythe, CB – A guy that will be expected to do a lot in the pass game, Forsythe has a team best 8 PBU’s, he’s also got 2 INTs and has even blocked a kick. He’s got 41 tackles on the season.
#33 TJ Lally, LB – A 6-2, 200 pound linebacker, no eye popping special stats but he’s 2nd best on the team in tackles with 88, he’s also got 1 fumble recovery this season.
#54 Cole Langer, DL – A 6-4, 285 pound D-lineman he’s tied for the team lead with 4 sacks. He’s also got 9 TFLs, 38 TFLs, 1 forced fumble, and a team best 5 QB hits.
--------------------
Keys to a Grizzly victory
1. Force 3 or more turnovers. SDSU’s losses and closer games were usually mired with some turnovers, more interceptions than anything as SDSU has only lost 1 fumble the whole season. Our LB’s and secondary will need to get after some passes and we’ll need pressure from Holmes and company to force quick throws.
2. Don’t let SDSU hold the ball for 35:00+ TOP. Many of their wins weren’t the prettiest but they put teams away by not letting them have the ball much. I’m not saying that the Griz need to win TOP since I don’t think they’ve done that once this year, but we can’t have a massive deficit in TOP.
3. Use the run to set up the pass. SDSU’s pass defense statistically is pretty good, however they’ve not faced a lot of pass-heavy offenses. I think the MSU and EWU game plans could carry over here – more runs than passes but use that to set up long bomb TDs. We need this O-line to keep on improving and hopefully opening more running lanes.
4. Prevent the big play and put a man on the TE. Hopefully getting burnt all day by Sandland forces some adjustments in our defensive coverage or awareness. SDSU will be looking to attack our safeties as well.
5. Keep #19 under control. Just like the Griz did for Kupp and NAU’s Butler (for the most part) the Griz can really break up the SDSU offense by not letting Weinekie go nuts in the secondary.
6. Execute in the redzone. Get points, obviously preferably TDs – but don’t come away from the RZ empty handed. The Griz have been steadily improving the RZ and need that to keep going.
7. Limit big plays. Goes without saying, the big play remains our enemy – we keep seeing teams get long gains and big scores on the nefarious big play that gets our guys out of position. I don’t necessarily know if SDSU has more electric playmakers except their WR than we’ve seen in recent weeks, but they’ve shown statistically they make very few errors and execute quite well.
8. 38+ points on offense. Realize that even though the thanksgiving weekend crowd is crazy and fun… SDSU won’t be phased. They’ve played in front of equal size and bigger crowds on the road this year and have done just fine. Furthermore on the road SDSU is scoring almost 35 points per game! There’s no ill effects to these guys on the road. The offense needs to come ready to keep scoring like they’ve been the last two weeks.
9. Bend but don’t break on defense. SDSU’s yardage per game suggests they know how to get their yards – but their kicker isn’t the most accurate (14-21 on the season) and so set up situations where they have to rely on feildgoal attempts vs scoring TDs.
-------------------------------
This is quite the evenly matched game when you compare stats, it’s pretty wild. This one is anyone’s guess. SDSU is good on the road, UM is historically good at home but has lost two this year at home alone. What I like about our chances here are comparing the teams in the last two weeks. UM has found it’s stride, scoring big points and beating better teams. SDSU needed a comeback against a 5-6 team and then lost in 2OT to a 6-5 team. Momentum might be on our side here.
I love this first round in the playoffs because many times those that attend are usually the most frenzied. While it’ll be 17,000 – 19,000 total… it’s going to be a fun place come Saturday. With the momentum and now the return of Crittenden on defense I’ll say Griz keep it rolling, in a close fight… 38-28.
GO GRIZ!
