Game Comments
Cal Poly at Nevada: Nevada qualified (at 7-5) for a bowl game, where they got hammered. Cal Poly ended up with a poor record (4-7), but we know how tough they are and how their option attack can mess people up. This game was one of the stronger selections for an upset, although no one added much in the way of new information about either team.
Without a three-game losing streak to end the season, EWU would have had a pretty good record. And they still have Cooper Kupp, so they should bounce back. Washington State had a very good year, including a bowl win. But their big weakness is still the defense, which plays right into EWU’s strength. As suggested during the discussion on this one, a lot of EWU votes were probably “hope shots” rather than realistic expectations of an upset.
Jackson State was pretty bad (3-8) last year, so this does not look good for them. They have a new head coach, but at least he has 17 returning starters to work with and signings have apparently improved their overall depth. On the other sideline, UNLV was also pretty bad … one of their three wins was against Idaho State. Not sure how much the poll went for J State, versus people hatin’ (for whatever reason) on UNLV.
MSU at UI: What else to say, except: Bobcats suck! … and … Idaho blows!
Northern Iowa was strong last year, with -- as we all know -- a damn good run in the playoffs. They have 16 returning starters, including 4 of 5 starting offensive linemen. So you know they’ll be tough again. Iowa State was a crappy team last year (3-9), with way too many blow-out losses. This looks like one of the stronger possibilities for an upset. And people seemed to agree since this was probably the closest to a runaway win in its poll.
Richmond had a great year (10-4), advancing all the way to the semi-final game. They return 16 starters from that team, including two All-Americans … so they will be tough again. They will need to rebuild their running game, but they still have an All-American at QB. Virginia sucked last year at 4-8. One of those wins was a close game with William & Mary, plus they had to go into triple-OT, at home, to beat a bad Syracuse team. It’s going to take time for Coach Mendenhall (over from BYU … wonder how much $$$ he got) to turn things around. Can you say upset alert?
South Dakota at UNM surprised me a bit by winning its preliminary poll. The Coyotes were not that great last year, and now they have to break in a new coaching staff. The new guy has brought in new systems on both offense and defense. Thus, the fact that they return 9 starters on offense really does not buy them much. They do have a senior QB who is supposed to be quick on the uptake. The returning starters do include two solid running backs, so they have something to build on there. The defense returns only 4 starters from last year, which may actually be an advantage since the coaches can start with more of a “clean slate” on that side of the ball.
On the other side, UNM did go to a bowl game last year, even if they lost there to a mediocre Arizona team. They have a good young QB, who supposedly has a lot of potential and now a year of experience under his helmet. He will be protected by an experienced offensive line, which can also open some holes for some solid talent at RB. They are apparently thin on reliable receivers, so a good deal of option football is possible … and that’s the strength of their top QB. According to the numbers, UNM has depth and experience on the defensive front. And, defense is a Coach Davie specialty -- and he likes to attack on D -- so perhaps upfront pressure can offset a somewhat weak secondary. Not buying a high probability of an upset here.
Towson was another 7-4 team, with some very good wins, that had a chance to get into the FCS playoffs. They return a total of 17 starters, including the All-ACC stud running back. They will be tough again. USF had a very good year after a rocky start, but then lost in their bowl game against Western Kentucky. They have to replace most of their top offensive starters and apparently the backups did not get a lot of PT. The defense is solid but supposedly lacks experience at some key positions.
Villanova definitely had a down year, although they did pull off a nice home upset against Richmond late in the season. They blame the poor showing on the career-ending (college) injury to their stud QB early in the year, and they could be right. They are supposed to have a ton of talent coming off red-shirt years and the team is expected to compete for the CAA title. Pittsburgh had a very good year, even though they did lose their bowl game fairly decisively. But they have some major holes to fill, including on the offensive line and a WR who caught 43% of the completions for the team. The defense has a fair amount of returning talent, but is apparently very thin.
William & Mary had an very good year before losing in the second round of the playoff to another ACC team (Richmond). They return 16 starters that include a bunch of All-ACC players, but will need to fill a few holes on defense. Offense is expected to be their strength early. North Carolina State was another team that did enough to get into a bowl game and then get hammered. As a matter of fact, after a quick start against four soft touches, they went 3-6 for the rest of the season. Only one thing really stands out about the Wolfpack (and it’s about all their fans seem to talk about), and that’s their all-purpose “offensive player” Jaylen Samuels. In the past, they lined him up as TE, split-out receiver, blocking “fullback” and as downhill tailback. He scored 9 TDs as a running back, only 7 as a receiver. However, they have a brand new offensive coordinator, so who knows how he will line up this year?
:lol: . In fact, four of those remaining are in the top-10 in the pre-season polls and two are in the top-5.
