We can officially say Griz football is back, and opening the 2016 season the Griz will play host to the Saint Francis University Red Flash, out of Pennsylvania. SFU is a member of the North East Conference, the NEC, which is an FCS conference and has an auto-bid to the playoffs. Last year the NEC sent Duquesne to the playoffs who lost in the first round to William and Mary by the score of 52-49. Duquesne beat SFU just the week before 30-20. SFU graduated a lot of their playmakers on offense, I believe their top 2 runners and 4 of their top receivers. Their defense returns a big chunk of their starters from last year, so we’ll see an experienced squad there. SFU was voted to finish 3rd in the NEC by coaches and media this year.
Notable games from 2015
20-35 loss to Towson – The Towson Tigers of the CAA finished 7-4 last year and were a bubble playoff team that wound up not making the cut. Towson almost beat an ACC team in East Carolina last year and two of their other three losses were to ranked teams. In this game there were a few odd scoring events. Towson grabbed a 7-0 lead but gave up a 99 yard kick return to tie it at 7-7. Towson had good success passing, about 275 yards and scored on a punt return in the 3rd quarter as well. Towson held a moderate lead through the game. SFU had just 29 yards rushing.
3-48 loss to Youngstown State – the next week it wasn’t as close as SFU got rolled by YSU. YSU had almost 500 yards of total offense and held SFU to just 87 TOTAL yards in the game. It was an ugly day in the air for SFU, 1-12 passing for a total of 10 yards. And there were no turnovers in the game.
20-30 loss to Duquesne – As mentioned this game was the last game of the season for SFU against the NEC champ. SFU went up 14-0 early but Duquesne scored the next 30 points to grab the lead and secure the win. SFU had their usual mix of 100+ rushing and 200+ passing but Duquesne had nearly 300 passing and 200 rushing. SFU tossed 3 costly picks in that game.
General Stats
Major categories
Pass YPG: Montana 280.5 ypg - SFU 208 ypg
Rush YPG: Montana 142 ypg - SFU 160 ypg
Total YPG: Montana 423 ypg - SFU 368 ypg
Offense PPG: Montana 29.3 ppg - SFU 28.2 ppg
Defense PPG: Montana 24.6 ppg - SFU 20.9 ppg
Turnover Margin: Montana +/- 0 - SFU +2
Additional categories
TOP: Montana 26:04 - SFU 32:00
Offense Red Zone TD%: Montana 46% - SFU 60%
Defense Red Zone TD%: Montana 54% - SFU 52%
Offense 3rd down %: Montana 35% - SFU 39%
Defense 3rd down %: Montana 30% - SFU 35%
Total Plays per game: Montana 83 - SFU 63
Total statistical advantage Montana 5 to SFU’s 10
Obviously the first game of the year you’ve got to take these stat comparisons with a big grain of salt. First of all neither of these teams play at the same regular competitive level. While the NEC isn’t a total pushover league, it’s nowhere near the strength of the Big Sky. SFU does have a commendable OCC where they played Georgetown, Towson, Youngstown State, and ETSU though. So comparing stats of what SFU faced vs what UM faced isn’t the best comparison. Additionally, defensively Montana has a new DC and new design, that will presumably affect the defensive stats (for the good or for the worse, we have yet to see).
At the very least this shows off some of the issues and shortcomings the Griz had over the course of last season. TDs in the red zone, 3rd down efficiency on offense, and a positive turnover margin.
Players to Watch
#7 Zach Drayer, QB – Drayer, much like Brady Gustafson, is one of the few returning pieces to the passing game for SFU from a year before. He’s a taller guy too at 6-4. Last season he averaged just under 200 passing yards per game completing a little over 60% of his passes. He can run too – he had about 200 yards gained rushing (before you back out sacks) last year.
#2 Marcus Bagley, RB – Bagley was the #2 running back last year, a big 5-11, 230 pound kid he had 626 yards on the year and 2 TDs. Bagley had 66 receiving yards last year too. The 1st string RB last year caught a lot of passes so expect more from Bagley in the passing game this year.
#11 Kamron Lewis, WR – Lewis was 5th on the team in receiving yards with 107 last year, and he’s the returning leading receiver of the group. He’s a tall 6-4 kid.
#12 Lance Geesey, K – One of the better kickers in the FCS. Doesn’t miss much, he made 16 of 17 last season and was 28-29 on PATs. I see he was named to the Hero Sports All America list.
#22 Lorenzo Jerome, S – a 6 foot 195 pound safety Jerome has a bit of NFL buzz about him going into his senior year. He’s a good safety and also a great kick and punt returner. He had the best kick return average in the FCS last season (31.2 yards per return) and he’s tied for the most interceptions (12) among active FCS players. Jerome was 3rd on the team with 58 tackles, he had 2.5 sacks, 3 picks, and 7 PBUs. Gus needs to keep an eye on #22 all the time.
#9 Wesley Nagaseu, DT – Voted 1st team all-conference Nagaseu is a big dude at 310 pounds. Last season he had 36 tackles and 8 TFLs. I assume his ability to clog up running lanes is a big reason why he gets the all-conference respect he has. And yes, he’s #9, not #90 or another typical D-line number you see.
#5 Solomon Leaeno, LB – The returning leading tackler, Leaeno had a team leading 12.5 TFLs to go with his 60 total stops. He had 4 sacks as well.
#21 Delando Boyd, S – Boyd is the opposite starter to Jerome and is also a ball-hawking safety. He had 3 picks of his own last season. He had 49 tackles on the season, 4th best of all defenders, and 1 forced fumble.
Keys to a Grizzly Victory
1. Control the line of scrimmage on offense. SFU has some size on their D-line and there’s been a repeated discussion from the coaches this spring and fall that the Grizzly O-line is ready to take the next step. If the Grizzly O-line can open good running lanes and keep Gus from getting beat up, that will set a great tone. It all starts with the OL and that’s a huge thing to look for. Dare I say it? Yeah I’m gonna… DOLA.
2. Improve on last year’s hang-ups. Simply put, run the ball better, convert more 3rd downs on offense than we did, and score more TDs in the red zone. Even the slightest improvements should turn big dividends. If the Griz can notch 175+ running, 40%+ 3rd down conversions, and 60%+ TDs in the red zone that should equate to quite a few more points.
3. Make SFU 1-dimensional. It would seem that SFU will try to establish a bit more of a ground game with an experienced RB and at least 1 O-line player with pre-season accolades. While they have a veteran QB their WR corps is young and untested. If the Griz can take away the running game and force a lot of fresh and new WRs to make plays, that could prevent SFU from even getting started.
4. Don’t let special teams be the deciding factor. The Griz will be using a new kicker, a new punter, new returners, and quite a few new blockers and coverage teams. SFU on the other hand has an all-American kicker and the best returner in the FCS. Additionally for SFU with 8 returning starters on defense that suggests their defensive depth played a lot of ST last year – meaning they’ve got experienced coverage and blocking teams too. I’m not expecting the world from our ST, just limit errors and don’t let Jerome burn us.
5. A positive margin in turnovers. Both QBs showed last season they can have tendencies to toss some picks, let’s make sure that the Griz pick off more than SFU does – and win the margin in turnovers.
6. Have the passing game settle in. Scrimmages both this spring and fall have shown some ups and some downs in the passing game. Get into a good rhythm and build on it. Also start to cement that starting group that Gus will be leaning on through the season.
7. Little to no “big plays”. Maybe the biggest issue of the Gregorak DC-era was the dreaded big play. Now with Semore at the helm we’ll have to see if his new design and plan of attack will cut back the amount of big plays the defense gives up. Additionally this will be the first start for more than half of our defense, big game to help them calm the nerves and get locked in.
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Honestly I don’t see this as a massive blowout game like some/many are predicting. SFU is a very competitive team with some real talent on their squad. They play in a smaller division with lower competition for sure but the Griz are coming into this game facing some similar challenges that SFU has, mostly breaking in a ton of new WRs. And while the Griz are also starting a ton of new guys on defense, SFU returns the bulk of their unit on defense with one NFL prospect in it.
I do see a Griz win here, but I wouldn’t be totally surprised if halftime is closer than many expect. First games a lot of times (but not every time) can show some errors, some slow starts, and some miscues. At the end of the day/night I’ll say Griz come away with the win 45-17.
GO GRIZ!
Notable games from 2015
20-35 loss to Towson – The Towson Tigers of the CAA finished 7-4 last year and were a bubble playoff team that wound up not making the cut. Towson almost beat an ACC team in East Carolina last year and two of their other three losses were to ranked teams. In this game there were a few odd scoring events. Towson grabbed a 7-0 lead but gave up a 99 yard kick return to tie it at 7-7. Towson had good success passing, about 275 yards and scored on a punt return in the 3rd quarter as well. Towson held a moderate lead through the game. SFU had just 29 yards rushing.
3-48 loss to Youngstown State – the next week it wasn’t as close as SFU got rolled by YSU. YSU had almost 500 yards of total offense and held SFU to just 87 TOTAL yards in the game. It was an ugly day in the air for SFU, 1-12 passing for a total of 10 yards. And there were no turnovers in the game.
20-30 loss to Duquesne – As mentioned this game was the last game of the season for SFU against the NEC champ. SFU went up 14-0 early but Duquesne scored the next 30 points to grab the lead and secure the win. SFU had their usual mix of 100+ rushing and 200+ passing but Duquesne had nearly 300 passing and 200 rushing. SFU tossed 3 costly picks in that game.
General Stats
Major categories
Pass YPG: Montana 280.5 ypg - SFU 208 ypg
Rush YPG: Montana 142 ypg - SFU 160 ypg
Total YPG: Montana 423 ypg - SFU 368 ypg
Offense PPG: Montana 29.3 ppg - SFU 28.2 ppg
Defense PPG: Montana 24.6 ppg - SFU 20.9 ppg
Turnover Margin: Montana +/- 0 - SFU +2
Additional categories
TOP: Montana 26:04 - SFU 32:00
Offense Red Zone TD%: Montana 46% - SFU 60%
Defense Red Zone TD%: Montana 54% - SFU 52%
Offense 3rd down %: Montana 35% - SFU 39%
Defense 3rd down %: Montana 30% - SFU 35%
Total Plays per game: Montana 83 - SFU 63
Total statistical advantage Montana 5 to SFU’s 10
Obviously the first game of the year you’ve got to take these stat comparisons with a big grain of salt. First of all neither of these teams play at the same regular competitive level. While the NEC isn’t a total pushover league, it’s nowhere near the strength of the Big Sky. SFU does have a commendable OCC where they played Georgetown, Towson, Youngstown State, and ETSU though. So comparing stats of what SFU faced vs what UM faced isn’t the best comparison. Additionally, defensively Montana has a new DC and new design, that will presumably affect the defensive stats (for the good or for the worse, we have yet to see).
At the very least this shows off some of the issues and shortcomings the Griz had over the course of last season. TDs in the red zone, 3rd down efficiency on offense, and a positive turnover margin.
Players to Watch
#7 Zach Drayer, QB – Drayer, much like Brady Gustafson, is one of the few returning pieces to the passing game for SFU from a year before. He’s a taller guy too at 6-4. Last season he averaged just under 200 passing yards per game completing a little over 60% of his passes. He can run too – he had about 200 yards gained rushing (before you back out sacks) last year.
#2 Marcus Bagley, RB – Bagley was the #2 running back last year, a big 5-11, 230 pound kid he had 626 yards on the year and 2 TDs. Bagley had 66 receiving yards last year too. The 1st string RB last year caught a lot of passes so expect more from Bagley in the passing game this year.
#11 Kamron Lewis, WR – Lewis was 5th on the team in receiving yards with 107 last year, and he’s the returning leading receiver of the group. He’s a tall 6-4 kid.
#12 Lance Geesey, K – One of the better kickers in the FCS. Doesn’t miss much, he made 16 of 17 last season and was 28-29 on PATs. I see he was named to the Hero Sports All America list.
#22 Lorenzo Jerome, S – a 6 foot 195 pound safety Jerome has a bit of NFL buzz about him going into his senior year. He’s a good safety and also a great kick and punt returner. He had the best kick return average in the FCS last season (31.2 yards per return) and he’s tied for the most interceptions (12) among active FCS players. Jerome was 3rd on the team with 58 tackles, he had 2.5 sacks, 3 picks, and 7 PBUs. Gus needs to keep an eye on #22 all the time.
#9 Wesley Nagaseu, DT – Voted 1st team all-conference Nagaseu is a big dude at 310 pounds. Last season he had 36 tackles and 8 TFLs. I assume his ability to clog up running lanes is a big reason why he gets the all-conference respect he has. And yes, he’s #9, not #90 or another typical D-line number you see.
#5 Solomon Leaeno, LB – The returning leading tackler, Leaeno had a team leading 12.5 TFLs to go with his 60 total stops. He had 4 sacks as well.
#21 Delando Boyd, S – Boyd is the opposite starter to Jerome and is also a ball-hawking safety. He had 3 picks of his own last season. He had 49 tackles on the season, 4th best of all defenders, and 1 forced fumble.
Keys to a Grizzly Victory
1. Control the line of scrimmage on offense. SFU has some size on their D-line and there’s been a repeated discussion from the coaches this spring and fall that the Grizzly O-line is ready to take the next step. If the Grizzly O-line can open good running lanes and keep Gus from getting beat up, that will set a great tone. It all starts with the OL and that’s a huge thing to look for. Dare I say it? Yeah I’m gonna… DOLA.
2. Improve on last year’s hang-ups. Simply put, run the ball better, convert more 3rd downs on offense than we did, and score more TDs in the red zone. Even the slightest improvements should turn big dividends. If the Griz can notch 175+ running, 40%+ 3rd down conversions, and 60%+ TDs in the red zone that should equate to quite a few more points.
3. Make SFU 1-dimensional. It would seem that SFU will try to establish a bit more of a ground game with an experienced RB and at least 1 O-line player with pre-season accolades. While they have a veteran QB their WR corps is young and untested. If the Griz can take away the running game and force a lot of fresh and new WRs to make plays, that could prevent SFU from even getting started.
4. Don’t let special teams be the deciding factor. The Griz will be using a new kicker, a new punter, new returners, and quite a few new blockers and coverage teams. SFU on the other hand has an all-American kicker and the best returner in the FCS. Additionally for SFU with 8 returning starters on defense that suggests their defensive depth played a lot of ST last year – meaning they’ve got experienced coverage and blocking teams too. I’m not expecting the world from our ST, just limit errors and don’t let Jerome burn us.
5. A positive margin in turnovers. Both QBs showed last season they can have tendencies to toss some picks, let’s make sure that the Griz pick off more than SFU does – and win the margin in turnovers.
6. Have the passing game settle in. Scrimmages both this spring and fall have shown some ups and some downs in the passing game. Get into a good rhythm and build on it. Also start to cement that starting group that Gus will be leaning on through the season.
7. Little to no “big plays”. Maybe the biggest issue of the Gregorak DC-era was the dreaded big play. Now with Semore at the helm we’ll have to see if his new design and plan of attack will cut back the amount of big plays the defense gives up. Additionally this will be the first start for more than half of our defense, big game to help them calm the nerves and get locked in.
----------------------
Honestly I don’t see this as a massive blowout game like some/many are predicting. SFU is a very competitive team with some real talent on their squad. They play in a smaller division with lower competition for sure but the Griz are coming into this game facing some similar challenges that SFU has, mostly breaking in a ton of new WRs. And while the Griz are also starting a ton of new guys on defense, SFU returns the bulk of their unit on defense with one NFL prospect in it.
I do see a Griz win here, but I wouldn’t be totally surprised if halftime is closer than many expect. First games a lot of times (but not every time) can show some errors, some slow starts, and some miscues. At the end of the day/night I’ll say Griz come away with the win 45-17.
GO GRIZ!
GO GRIZ!
