The 4th down Quandary

All in all, by the numbers, the attempt on 4th down to continue the drive is an effective plan. Over 50% of our attempts were successful, all of which except one were attempted on the opposition side of the 50. If successful, nearly 70% of our extended drives put points on the board. Yes, we were 14/18 on FG's but after the second game, we didn't make a kick outside the 21 yard line. Obviously if we punt, we get 0 points so it makes since to give us an opportunity in certain situations. Now some will argue that maybe we give up more points on failures. Not so. of our 51 punts, the defense stopped the opposition from scoring 75% of the time. If we attempted a 4th down conversion, successful or not, the opposition didn't score on their ensuing drive 81% of the time. If you only take into account our 4th down failed attempts, the D held 69%, just under the rate as if we had punted anyway. Therefore, it just makes sense to try in certain situations. The only complaint I have and probably the number one issue is the damn QB dive formation. Every time we lined up in that formation, we ran the same play. One could argue that you should be able to get one yard but when 11 guys know exactly what hole the ball is going in, it can get difficult.

Here's a break down by the numbers.

Totals (1st half/2nd half)

Record 6-5 (5-1/1-4)

•4th down conversions. 14-27 (7-12/7-15).
*Two of the fails in the second half came on long desperation attempts at the end of games vs UNC and MSU. Subtract those two and the conversion rate is about the same at mid 50's.

•FG's. 14-18 (8-10/6-8).
*Not much difference here.

•Number of punts. 51 (25/26).
*Big difference here, punts per game went up from 4.1 to 5.2 in the second half.

•Result of drives with a successful 4th down conversion attempt.
•7 TD's (5/2)
•2 FG's (1/1)
*That means 64% of the time that we successfully extended a drive with a 4th down conversion, points were put on the board.
•The results of the other 5 drives.
•1 to successfully run out the clock in a win.
•1 fumble in the red zone resulting in a turn over vs UNC.
•1 resulting in a punt.
•2 on a futile last drive of a 16-35 loss vs EWU.

•The results of drives by the opposition after a failed 4th down attempt by the UM.
•4 TD's (1/3)(2 by NAU)
•0 FG's
*That means that 69% of our failures, our defense was successful at holding the opposition to 0 points. The results of the other 9 drives were as follows.
•2 clock expiring drives by UNC and MSU (not really a success)
•4 punts
•2 missed FG's (one blocked)
•1 fum recovered by UM for a TD.

*Obviously the alternative to (the unpopular belief of?) going for it on 4th down is punting the ball. UM punted 51 times with only 8 of them coming from the opposition's side of 50. Interestingly enough, 6 of those 8 came in the last four games after the NAU game where UM was 1/5 on 4th down attempts. The opposition's results from our punts are as follows.
•TD's. 10 (4/6)(2 vs EWU and 3 vs MSU)
•FG's. 2 (1/1)
•Punt blocked by UNC and returned for TD.
*With these numbers, when UM punts, 75% of the time the defense holds the opposition scoreless. The other 38 results were as follows.
•Punts. 26 (11/14) with 1 returned for a TD.
•Missed FG's. 2 (1/1)
•Failed 4th down attempts. 4 (4/0) 2 by UNI, 1 of which as time expired.
•A clock expiring drive in win vs ISU.
•1 fum on the PR that was recovered by UM.
•INT's. 2
•Fum lost. 1

NICE RESEARCH

alabamagrizzly said:

The only complaint I have and probably the number one issue is the damn QB dive formation. Every time we lined up in that formation, we ran the same play. One could argue that you should be able to get one yard but when 11 guys know exactly what hole the ball is going in, it can get difficult.

Click to expand...

Chalich ran around right end for a TD from that formation in the UNC game. Because he could; BG, not so much.

kemajic said:

alabamagrizzly said:

The only complaint I have and probably the number one issue is the damn QB dive formation. Every time we lined up in that formation, we ran the same play. One could argue that you should be able to get one yard but when 11 guys know exactly what hole the ball is going in, it can get difficult.

Click to expand...

Chalich ran around right end for a TD from that formation in the UNC game. Because he could; BG, not so much.

Click to expand...

After Stitt ran it twice for no gain against UNIU, I was hoping to never see it again. How that ever looked plausible as a Brady sneak play is beyond me. What happened to "ISO?"

Some great stats. Thanks for the infromative information. Coaches quandry; do I have confidence in my offense or my defense. Perhaps both!

buckingthesun said:

Some great stats. Thanks for the infromative information. Coaches quandry; do I have confidence in my offense or my defense. Perhaps both!

Click to expand...

I would assume the confidence is there because they see them both excel in practice. I know the confidence here has diminished because of some bad plays that REALLY stand out in our minds because they can be so costly. Regardless of confidence though, I'm sure Stitt has expectations that might put too much on the kids, more so in the secondary then the O. The O knows what they're doing and should execute. The secondary, I beleive at times, may have too much on them and the result is an occasional big play that can be extremely costly.

alabamagrizzly said:

buckingthesun said:

Some great stats. Thanks for the infromative information. Coaches quandry; do I have confidence in my offense or my defense. Perhaps both!

Click to expand...

I would assume the confidence is there because they see them both excel in practice. I know the confidence here has diminished because of some bad plays that REALLY stand out in our minds because they can be so costly. Regardless of confidence though, I'm sure Stitt has expectations that might put too much on the kids, more so in the secondary then the O. The O knows what they're doing and should execute. The secondary, I beleive at times, may have too much on them and the result is an occasional big play that can be extremely costly.

Click to expand...

Big plays like a QB draw up the middle by an 18 year old, over and over.

kemajic said:

alabamagrizzly said:

buckingthesun said:

Some great stats. Thanks for the infromative information. Coaches quandry; do I have confidence in my offense or my defense. Perhaps both!

Click to expand...

I would assume the confidence is there because they see them both excel in practice. I know the confidence here has diminished because of some bad plays that REALLY stand out in our minds because they can be so costly. Regardless of confidence though, I'm sure Stitt has expectations that might put too much on the kids, more so in the secondary then the O. The O knows what they're doing and should execute. The secondary, I beleive at times, may have too much on them and the result is an occasional big play that can be extremely costly.

Click to expand...

Big plays like a QB draw up the middle by an 18 year old, over and over.

Click to expand...

I believe Allezchat already brought this up in the recruiting trail thread if I'm not misteken.