I'll take a quick stab. There are so many variables you're leaving out. In regards to football, I'll beat the same drum I've been beating. NCAA SANCTIONS. Why in god's name do people think UM should be different than other programs who have gone through an NCAA sanction period? Miami, slipped, Penn State, slipped, Alabama, slipped, USC, slipped, Oklahoma, slipped. Why in the hell should UM be exempt somehow from NCAA sanction hurting the football program? The answer is, it's NOT. The NCAA probation is officially over last month. Now, let's see what happens. If, in two years, things aren't trending back up, then I'll start to really worry.
Basketball, the men don't have a real big this season. They'll have three of them next year. If the Griz are terrible next year, then I'll worry. The women are going through a season in which their two best players blew out their knees, and, the only person in charge of the program for over 30 years retired. If the Lady Griz lose 20 games next year, then I'll worry.
I know, I know, variables, who cares right? The only thing thing anyone cares about is W's right?