I think both coaches and media were being conservative, and on the safe side. The fact is, the GRIZ not only lost a lot of talent, but a great coach. Everyone feels Decuire was a great hire. I am sure many expect him to have growing pains that go hand in hand with a 1st time head coach. Tinkle and LK both had a few ups and downs learning on the fly. Travis did a great job by adding Bone to his staff, so that transition for him will be a lot easier
Something else to consider, the GRIZ are so very small. We go 1 deep in post length, that is Breunig. We better pray and hope, Breunig stays healthy all year. We are in a world of hurt inside if he goes down. Granted, I believe Kemp will put up solid numbers on the boards and post scoring. The team inside toughness has to start with him. Too bad he is not a few inches taller. I hope Weisner put on some bulk in the off season without losing any hops. Other than Gregory and Dunn, our guards are unproven.
Basically we have Gregory, Dunn, Weisner, Kemp, and Breunig as the main core. Kemp has yet to live up to vast potential. Breunig is an unknown with a huge upside. I feel he and Bolomboy will be the leagues best post players. I am sure many expect Breunig to take a month or 2 become adjusted to being a prime time player. I feel he will be ready come conference play, which is when it counts.
I honestly feel media and coaches are going with common sense thinking in the preseason polls. These are a lot of factors to overcome. Personally, I feel Weber State should be the favorite. I really like what and who EWU has coming back, they have great rebounding, inside play, with very good guards. NAU has a lot of talent which should finally come into their own this season. Sac State will be better. I feel UNC will be better this season as well.
I will be surprised if the GRIZ finish better than 4th. With all the x factors coming into the season, I honestly see them as 5th or 6th place team. However they will be peaking come tournament time. I expect a roller coaster ride through January. I feel they will be much improved the 2nd half of the conference season. I expect the GRIZ to be a game or 2 above .500 in conference play.
Anything beyond that will be one hell of a coaching job by DeCuire. One thing I really like is Travis's desire to go 10 deep. It will take awhile to get a consistent 10 man rotation on the same page. However, when the GRIZ find that consistency with that kind of depth, teams will get purely worn out come the 2nd half of games. I expect the GRIZ to be the biggest sleeper choice for the BSC tourney regardless of where it is held. Slow start, strong finish. Unfortunately, too much ground to make up to earn a post season tournament bid. About the same conference outcome as last season. After this season, look out BSC!!!!
I will be playing close attention to how crisp and united the team plays on both ends of the court the 1st month of the season. If the defense is limiting open perimeter looks, and pressing the ball well, that will be a great early season sign. Offensively, if we see 4 to 6 guys scoring consistently, limit turnovers, and get open shots, that will be a great sign. If we can get Breunig and Kemp to combine to average 25 ppg, and 13 rebounds per game, that will be huge. Also I hope to see 3 or 4 guys be vocal leaders out there. Gregory and Dunn are givens to be those leaders right now. Who else will become another leader? It would be nice that 2 of 3 out of Weisner, Kemp, and Breunig become the 3rd and 4th guys for leadership.
If these things happen early, I will be more than happy to expect the GRIZ to be a top 3 conference team this year. Realistically though, a transition like this takes a few months to round into top form. It is really hard for me to take off my maroon colored glasses when it comes to GRIZ basketball. I hope I accomplished that in this post. Believe me, every part of me wants to say "The GRIZ will compete with Weber State for the conference title." I hope the team speeds up the time table and competes at a high level out of the gates. Please boys, I beg to prove me wrong.
