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Big Sky 2014-15 PreSeason prediction

grizzlyjournal

Well-known member
I wrote the Big Sky preseason preview for the Missoulian for several years in the mid- 80s... and then for three years more recently for a blog called Rush The Court.

I thought: "What the heck? Why not!" I've got nothing to lose.

Montana, the Big Sky & NCAA 2014-15 preseason rankings

After watching the Montana Grizzlies in their 2014-15 preseason scrimmage last night, I’m having a blast configuring this year’s preseason rankings & predictions. The team’s scrimmage performance gave us a lot to consider over the next two weeks.

The reality: With a new head coach and a very young, untested team, the widespread prognostications, in a nutshell, are brutal.

The equation: Low expectations = Nothing to lose. Go Griz.

For the past 5 seasons the Griz -- winners of 3 Big Sky titles and one second place finish -- have welcomed each new season with a target on their backs & lived up to the hype nonetheless. But now, with Anthony, Brian, Will and now Kareem moving on... sigh.

Add to the stew the recent raw memories of an unexpectedly underwhelming 13-14
. . . . a coach (Wayne Tinkle) eager to move on to greener pastures
. . . . a lone regular starter and senior leader in shooting guard Jordan Gregory
. . . . an up & down sometimes starting senior Michael Weisner
. . . . an untested, first-time-ever head coach in alumni Travis DeCuire, and
. . . . an otherwise very young, very green, untested collection of underclassmen, j.c. signees and one promising transfer.

And what you have is...

Very low expectations, indeed. Proof? No single national NCAA rating publication ranked them higher than fifth. Some predict -- at 7th or 8th, the lowest Big Sky finish for Montana since.... well, since Pat Kennedy was coach, 13 years ago. Ouch.

Here’s the proof:
ATHLON SPORTS College Basketball Preview -- 5th
THE SPORTING NEWS College Basketball Yearbook -- 5th
LINDY SPORTS 2014-15 Preview -- 6th
BIG SKY CONFERENCE Pre-season coaches poll -- 8th
NBC SPORTS Big Sky Preview -- 5th

Don’t agree? Well, take a look at the KEN POMEROYratings, released for 2014-15 just this week. Historically the most accurate rating system of NCAA Div 1 schools over the past several years, the Pomeroy ratings see the Griz as follows:
• 7th Place in the Big Sky Conference behind Weber State, Eastern Washington, Northern Colorado, Sacramento State, Idaho, and Northern Arizona; and,
264th out of 351 NCAA schools nationally. And with an offensive efficiency rating of 277/351, an offensive tempo rating of 278/351, and a defensive efficiency rating of 241/351.

Furthermore, Pomeroy predicts the Griz will lose their first game of the year at Colorado State by 13... and will have a record of 2-8 in the preseason before their first conference game on Jan. 1.

Yikes!!!

But here’s the fun part. Pomeroy -- like every other rating service above -- based their ratings on last year’s team & results. Not knowing much about Travis DeCuire’s coaching philosophy or system, they couldn’t do anything else.

Those who saw the new look Griz on Wednesday saw a team with completely revamped offensive and defensive looks and tempo. For better or worse, and without delving into details (it’s too early) you can throw all those predictions for Montana out the window. They’re just not relevant, and won’t be until adjusted ratings around Jan. 1 give a better view of this year’s team.

Does t hat mean the Griz are actually better than predicted above? Nope.

Just different. And that’s part of the fun for loyal Griz fans. The expectations are low...

... So they have nothing to lose. Neither do fans.

I will go out on a limb, and say that the Griz will be a surprise team in the Big Sky. I have no statistical evidence other than a hint of a significantly more potent Griz offensive efficiency and tempo, and a more aggressive defense.

Furthermore, I’ll make a prediction. Or, more accurately gamble on a hunch.

2014-15 Montana Grizzlies -- THIRD PLACE:
• Behind Northern Arizona and Weber State.
• Followed by: Idaho, Sacramento State, Eastern Washington, Northern Colorado, Idaho State, Portland State, Montana State, North Dakota and Southern Utah.
• Record: 17-13; Big Sky Conference: 12-6.
• Will advance to the Big Sky Conf. tourney semifinal game, where the Griz will be in position to repeat the results of Montana teams in 2002, 2005, 2006 and 2010.


Comments, corrections, ridicule and your own predictions are welcome.

Most importantly... enjoy the year.
 
grizzlyjournal said:
2014-15 Montana Grizzlies -- THIRD PLACE:
• Behind Northern Arizona and Weber State.
• Followed by: Idaho, Sacramento State, Eastern Washington, Northern Colorado, Idaho State, Portland State, Montana State, North Dakota and Southern Utah.


F*** Third Place...the Griz are taking the conference by storm!!!
 
grizzlyjournal said:
Third Place...the Griz are taking the conference by storm!!!

I bleed maroon, Wyoming. I'll be at every home Griz game and almost every home Lady Griz game (Lord willing). I hope to make it to 2-3 men's conference road games. Wouldn't miss them.
 
Ah yes...the BB portion of fun egriz begins. :lol:

4th in the Big Sky and agreed a team that will pleasantly surprise MANY. :thumb:
 
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