Griz vs Badgers

[EverettGriz]

Are you honestly implying that Montana, that plays 6 guys in the 25th best conference in the country, has more talent then Wisconsin?

I'm not. I would never say such a thing.
































But I've certainly listened to a number of experts in the field of college basketball who have.....





(P.S. The GRIZ have a win over Long Beach. Don't look now, but their RPI is damn near as good as yours).

[formerlybis]

Some thoughts and some questions for the Badger fans:

First, someone had said it before, either here or on the Weber board, but if you can impose your will in the paint, you will likely win and possibly easily. This is why most on this board were apprehensive of getting matched up with the likes of Baylor. If you want a decent blue print of how to beat this Griz team, you could go back and watch the Semifinal game against EWU. Granted, we won, but they had a great game-plan attacking the paint and using their big, Ederaine, against us. He was quicker than any of our bigs and he made us look pretty silly at times. You can watch some of the Griz games from this season here:

http://b2tv.com/upcoming_events.asp?q=v&value=bigsky

You just have to sign up for a free account, then login, install both the octet software and the latest flash player (you may need to restart the browser after this), then log in and click on "watch now." Look for the "VOD" link on the player that launches. You can go through past games here.

Anyway, that leads me to a question. How nimble are your big guys? I'd like to say ours are decent, but they just aren't. If they can work Matthias and Dereck, it will be a long day for the Griz.

I would say the UW bigs are generally average in terms of nimbleness -- not bad, just not remarkable. Evans is generally considered the most athletic of the bunch, but his primary game is the 10-15 foot jumper with an occasional slash. Berggren and Bruesewitz are not particularly quick offensive players, but they are good rebounders and passers -- Berggren is the most versatile player on the team, IMO -- a true inside banger (though we all wish he was a bit more polished with his inside game) who also has a perimeter game.

As for the highlights of Jordan Taylor, having the idea that he only makes the uncontested 3 is about 180 degrees from what generally happens. JT often has the ball in his hands with less than 10 seconds on the shot clock (and when I say often, this happens in something like 75% of UW's possessions), so he ends up taking a lot of tough shots. He made more of those shots last year than this year. He rarely has an open shot because he is the main focus of every opponent. Those highlights are highly misleading.

As for the preview post that looks only at total points scored and given up to assess the offense and defense -- whoever made that preview is stupid and doesn't understand basketball. I don't usually use such harsh terms, but any supposed expert who doesn't use tempo-free stats is a dolt. All that matters is how many points you score & allow PER POSESSION. Many pundits & even some coaches argue that Wisconsin's low point totals given up are because we take up so much of the clock on offense (thus limiting the opponents chances to score), but when you look at points given up per possession, we have the 4th fewest in the country. Here is a tempo-free analysis of our game: http://buckyville.yuku.com/topic/51396/Montana-Pre-Game-Analysis. You guys are no slouch in defensive points per possession, by the way -- I think you were around 40th or so, which when you consider there's 345 teams isn't bad (& the difference between us is somewhat small). However, the Big Ten has like 4 of the top ten defenses, so we have had to work before. I think that most of the defenses you guys have faced have been in the lower half of the 345.

[Evizzerate]

Berg may be a problem unless Tinkle pulls some magic or we get some bench help. Hutch just has to assert himself when given the opportunity. I've seen Eric have moments of playing tough smart really aggressive basketball this year so he does have it in him.

[ordigger]

These two writers rank our matchup as the least likely to have an upset in the East bracket. (Peter Keating & Jordan Brenner)

http://insider.espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/tournament/2012/story/_/id/7676733/2012-ncaa-tournament-giant-killers-top-upset-picks-east-region

Others...
St Bonaventure vs Florida State (22.1%)
Harvard vs Vanderbilt (19.7%)
Loyola Maryland vs Ohio State (9.5%)
UNC Ashville vs Syracuse (5.2%)

Yep you read it right, they believe that UNC-Ashville has a better chance of beating Syracuse than we do of beating Wisconsin.



No. 13 Montana (2.0) vs. No. 4 Wisconsin (21.8)
Upset chance: 4.3 percent

There's just enough here not to completely dismiss a slaying, and Wisconsin may be slightly overrated by tempo-free stats. But don't stake your bracket on this upset. The Badgers give the ball up just 15.1 percent of the time, which is second in the country, so you can forget about rattling them with pressure. They also own the offensive glass and absolutely smother opponents beyond the arc (giving up only 19.9 percent of their points from that distance, one of the best marks in the nation). If there's a weakness, Wisconsin doesn't score enough from 2-point range, which makes its offense less consistent than you'd like from a top-tier Giant. And the Badgers' weak nonconference performance isn't the greatest harbinger of success in these types of games.

But Montana isn't an ideal GK. Although the Grizzlies have won 14 straight games, their methods don't match those of effective Giant Killers. They're lousy on the offensive glass, below average in generating points from 3-point range (which is strange, because they hit 38.3 percent of their treys, so let it fly!) and haven't proved themselves against difficult competition. To their credit, they do a nice job of both preventing and forcing turnovers, although good luck trying to get Wisconsin to cough it up. And the Grizzlies defend the arc exceptionally well, allowing just 24.3 percent of opponents' points from downtown. But even though Will Cherry is a master thief (4.6 steal percentage, 15th in the nation) and Kareem Jamar could go off from 3 (44.5 percent), it's hard to find enough weapon

[argrizfan]

They also own the offensive glass

I see no evidence of that unless he has a totally different meaning of owning.

They're lousy on the offensive glass, below average in generating points from 3-point range (which is strange, because they hit 38.3 percent of their treys, so let it fly!)

I agree we are lousy on the offensive glass, but can someone please explain the second part of this statement. It seems to me that he made a statement then posted evidence to disprove his own statement. Am I misinterpreting something? I'm not saying that he is right or wrong about the Griz being unable to pull the upset, but I am having a hard time figuring out where he got his info.

[AllWeatherFan]

Why would anybody even spend ten seconds looking at stats as a way to measure these two teams? It's completely meaningless unless you play in the same conference, and even then it's pretty weak.

[Pilpsie]

They also own the offensive glass

I see no evidence of that unless he has a totally different meaning of owning.

I believe he meant to say defensive glass. Against Wisconsin, though, trying to get offensive rebounds won't hurt you as much as against, say, UNC, because UW rarely gets transition points.

They're lousy on the offensive glass, below average in generating points from 3-point range (which is strange, because they hit 38.3 percent of their treys, so let it fly!)

I agree we are lousy on the offensive glass, but can someone please explain the second part of this statement. It seems to me that he made a statement then posted evidence to disprove his own statement. Am I misinterpreting something? I'm not saying that he is right or wrong about the Griz being unable to pull the upset, but I am having a hard time figuring out where he got his info.

No, it makes sense. He's saying that Montana doesn't shoot the 3 enough given how well they shoot it. However, it looks like you shoot the 2 pretty well too, and draw plenty of fouls in the process, so I don't see any need to change your offense.

[argrizfan]

Yeah I realized that a little bit ago. I feel a little dumb about that one. The "so let it fly" kind of was a dead give-a-way. lol

[first11]

saw on a post that Big Ten basketball is #1 of conf in US. That is one sorry state for college bb when Big Ten is tops...college bb is in a sorry state for the rest of us I guess...

What? I don't follow, who should be on top? Lame post.

nice comment Einstein....get out much??

[formerlybis]

Why would anybody even spend ten seconds looking at stats as a way to measure these two teams? It's completely meaningless unless you play in the same conference, and even then it's pretty weak.

Well, I'm guessing you don't like stats. Ken Pomeroy has one of several websites that use stats from all games that are able to adjust for the competition http://kenpom.com. I won't be able to convince those who think that analyzing stats is "pretty weak", but these sites can be very instructive about the relative strengths and weaknesses of unfamiliar foes. To think that they're completely meaningless is fine -- you have your way of enjoying the run-up to a big game and I have my more superior way .

[AllWeatherFan]

It's okay, I am able to accommodate nerds in my world view.

[Pilpsie]

Why would anybody even spend ten seconds looking at stats as a way to measure these two teams? It's completely meaningless unless you play in the same conference, and even then it's pretty weak.

I'm not sure what's weak about comparing stats from two teams in the same conference. It's possible to look at conference-only stats, and since your conference is small enough to be able to play everyone else twice, the schedule is completely balanced.

What the conference stats show is that Montana is the best defensive team in the Big Sky by a mile, while being above average on offense. Being a good defensive team should help in preparing for UW, because the rest of the conference certainly wasn't pulling its weight.

[Growler1]

It's okay, I am able to accommodate nerds in my world view.

That's because you are one, Mr. "Progressive"

[Bigdsrip]

saw on a post that Big Ten basketball is #1 of conf in US. That is one sorry state for college bb when Big Ten is tops...college bb is in a sorry state for the rest of us I guess...

What? I don't follow, who should be on top? Lame post.

nice comment Einstein....get out much??

Haters gonna hate.

[Bigdsrip]

Are you honestly implying that Montana, that plays 6 guys in the 25th best conference in the country, has more talent then Wisconsin? I don't even know how to approach that level of ridiculousness to counter it. I'll just say that that is a false statement.

Taylor is the kind of player that can single handedly take over games and dominate them, yes. I meant more that he would have his team ready and locked into the tourney this year. He got some decent looks this year but he can score from anywhere, hands in his face or not. He had ankle surgery in the offseason that really hurt his explosiveness this year, but you can see he is starting to regain some of it as the year has gone on.

I've seen a lot of references to Weber St suggesting that they are somehow a trump card. They would be about the 10th best win on UW's schedule. Their best win is over... I don't see a quality win on their schedule anywhere, other then when they smacked you guys around. They got destroyed by a BYU team that we beat by 17. They do have a star player. But facing a team with one legit option is very different then facing a team like UW that has 7 guys that can drop 20 on you any given night.

The GRIZ will give Wisconsin all it can handle. We too have a great defense, and the stats are not boosted by running the clock down to under 5 seconds every possession. All, but 1 GRIZ that will be suiting up can hit the 3 consistently. Have fun shutting down Jamar and Cherry, despite playing in the Big Sky Conference, this back court combo can hold their own with any in the nation. If, Cherry stays healthy, look for him on a NBA roster after next season. As for Jamar, he is only a sophomore, but what a player. These are 2 players the Pac 12 let get away. Cherry, because of not being a good shooter, which he is solid at now. Jamar, because he stayed faithful to the GRIZ staff that was on him early on.

Your guards will not out play this combination. I give the edge to the Badgers inside though. It will be a close game. Think as you may, about my believe in our guards. They are that damn good, and I doubt they both have a bad game.

I usually am pretty accurate on GRIZ basketball, and not here to be cocky, or disrespect the Badgers. This team is as cohesive as any GRIZ team, including the one that upset Nevada, and their defense is way better than any. You will come away impressed with Cherry, and Jamar.

May the better team win this week.

They very well could. UW knows first hand how the whole can exceed the sum of its parts. I still see this as a bad matchup for Montana and the experts that rely on numbers and facts over emotion and bias agree. (Nate Silver, Ken Pom, etc. Vs. Myron Medcafe, Doug Gottlieb) I think you need to go over what a tempo free stat is. Even when you control for pace of play UW is still at the top of most defensive stats. Not to mention the obvious HUGE difference in quality of competition that those stats were put up against (Mont SOS-203, UW SOS-16)

[Bigdsrip]

We play extremely disciplined basketball. That makes it tough for less talented teams to close the gap

There are plenty of informed observers who do not believe Montana is less-talented.

Who? Where are these experts? Picking a team to pull an upset is not the same as declaring a team has more 'talent'. Logic check 101 time. You guys have a good team and have had a great year but step back for a second and think about what you are really implying. Do you have a better player or two ata given position? Sure you very well may. But we have a first team all-state guy from Illinois (Dukan), Mr. Basketball from Iowa (Uthoff), and the son of the #4 pick in the 92 NBA draft (Jackson), that never see the floor! Those are the guys on the end of our bench, how many Mr. Basketballs do you guys have redshirting?

[mtgrizrule]

I can honestly say the reason for my optimism in this GRIZ team are the following.

(1) Great strategic coaching, and ability to change up defenses, and play different type of games.
(2) Excellent Defense
(3) Guard play is key in the NCAA tournament. The GRIZ combination of Cherry, and Jamar can, and will compete with any guard combination. At least to date they have proven they can over the past 1 year plus. I have a feeling those that do not know about them will be introduced to them this weekend.
I admit, I will give Wisconsin the edge in the paint. I honestly believe our starting guards are better than Wisconsin.
(4) The unity of this team is as good as any team at any level I have ever seen. However the unity came about needs to be patented. I watch the bench interaction just as much as I do the game with this team. All the players, and coaches are happy, every game.

I am not knocking Wisconsin, but am very confident in this GRIZ team, and have a very good feeling, they will show well.

[ordigger]

We play extremely disciplined basketball. That makes it tough for less talented teams to close the gap

There are plenty of informed observers who do not believe Montana is less-talented.

Who? Where are these experts? Picking a team to pull an upset is not the same as declaring a team has more 'talent'. Logic check 101 time. You guys have a good team and have had a great year but step back for a second and think about what you are really implying. Do you have a better player or two ata given position? Sure you very well may. But we have a first team all-state guy from Illinois (Dukan), Mr. Basketball from Iowa (Uthoff), and the son of the #4 pick in the 92 NBA draft (Jackson), that never see the floor! Those are the guys on the end of our bench, how many Mr. Basketballs do you guys have redshirting?

We have have a first team all state guy from Washington, Mr Basketball from Washington and the nephew of the greatest point guard in NBA history. And he doesnt start either, his name is Shawn Stockton. Jordan Gregory was also the leading scorer if I recall for the state of Colorado his Sr year. Billy Reader, who wont play, was a star player on the same team as Kevin Love.

What does that all mean? Not a dang thing....what they did in HIGH SCHOOL doesnt matter at this point...perhaps you should step back and think about what you are implying. Personally I could care less who has the better "talent". If the team with the best talent one every game, I might be impressed...but then to why play the game?

[Bigdsrip]

I agree with you on that point. Best talent doesn't have much to do with who wins the game. Its a team sport.

I still maintain that common sense renders this argument ridiculous. The talent that goes to the B1G and UW is on a whole other level then what the Big Sky and Montana can produce. I only brought up the high school because i was too lazy to look up the recruiting rankings for both teams (not that that really proves anything either). How many NBA guys has Montana produced in the last ten years? UW, by no means an NBA factory, has 7 or 8 depending on how you count 10 game contracts. Total arrogance at work here I know, but I would wager that is more then the whole Big Sky conference has put into the League in that time frame.

After looking at that more closely those are all the same guy and he is your sixth man, hardly refutes my point. The guys I mentioned are just the ones that don't ever play (Jackson may have played 30mins this year but all in garbage time). I didn't even mention guys who are in our rotation.

[coyote]

I agree with you on that point. Best talent doesn't have much to do with who wins the game. Its a team sport.

I still maintain that common sense renders this argument ridiculous. The talent that goes to the B1G and UW is on a whole other level then what the Big Sky and Montana can produce. I only brought up the high school because i was too lazy to look up the recruiting rankings for both teams (not that that really proves anything either). How many NBA guys has Montana produced in the last ten years? UW, by no means an NBA factory, has 7 or 8 depending on how you count 10 game contracts. Total arrogance at work here I know, but I would wager that is more then the whole Big Sky conference has put into the League in that time frame.

I fail to see what this has to do with this years match up.

[jagur1]

Point on NBA guys. We just finnished taking the pants off the next Guard taken in the NBA draft. Not once but twice. If we can handle Webers number one draft pick we can handle the Badger guy I've never heard of.

[Bigdsrip]

Point on NBA guys. We just finnished taking the pants off the next Guard taken in the NBA draft. Not once but twice. If we can handle Webers number one draft pick we can handle the Badger guy I've never heard of.

HA! Never heard of Cousy award finalist, preseason first team All-American and two time first team all B1G point gaurd Jordan Taylor huh? yeah he's nothing special

[Bigdsrip]

I agree with you on that point. Best talent doesn't have much to do with who wins the game. Its a team sport.

I still maintain that common sense renders this argument ridiculous. The talent that goes to the B1G and UW is on a whole other level then what the Big Sky and Montana can produce. I only brought up the high school because i was too lazy to look up the recruiting rankings for both teams (not that that really proves anything either). How many NBA guys has Montana produced in the last ten years? UW, by no means an NBA factory, has 7 or 8 depending on how you count 10 game contracts. Total arrogance at work here I know, but I would wager that is more then the whole Big Sky conference has put into the League in that time frame.

I fail to see what this has to do with this years match up.

Your right it has nothing to do with it. Other posters were saying that national pundits said that Montana was the more talented team and I was pointing out that that is a ridiculous statement. Not meant to be a slight, as UW has routinely beaten teams that had far more talent. Thats the beauty of team sports.

[formerlybis]

I can honestly say the reason for my optimism in this GRIZ team are the following.

(1) Great strategic coaching, and ability to change up defenses, and play different type of games.
(2) Excellent Defense
(3) Guard play is key in the NCAA tournament. The GRIZ combination of Cherry, and Jamar can, and will compete with any guard combination. At least to date they have proven they can over the past 1 year plus. I have a feeling those that do not know about them will be introduced to them this weekend.
I admit, I will give Wisconsin the edge in the paint. I honestly believe our starting guards are better than Wisconsin.
(4) The unity of this team is as good as any team at any level I have ever seen. However the unity came about needs to be patented. I watch the bench interaction just as much as I do the game with this team. All the players, and coaches are happy, every game.

I am not knocking Wisconsin, but am very confident in this GRIZ team, and have a very good feeling, they will show well.

I always enjoy reading the perspectives of different fanbases about their teams because there are so many different styles that produce winning programs. UW does not change their style of play based on the opponent. Ever. This is not to say there isn't any scouting -- they will go to more favorable adjustments within the overall philosophical framework, but UW will always be in man, they'll always get back on D, and they'll always be a team-oriented half-court offense (i.e. very little transition game).

Once in a while, even us Badger fans would like to see a zone or some other defense -- there have been NCAA games where the other team had a dominant big who just killed us and Bo refused to double-team.

[getgrizzy]

you guys have a better team than us and you have better players. no question. but we're as good and talented as a few teams in the big ten you struggled with, like minnesota, a team you struggled with twice. psu, you beat by 6 and 10. iowa, you lost to and beat by 1. nebraska. you blew out once, but only beat by 5. illinois you beat soundly, but struggled with once.

if you started a conference with the bottom six of the big ten, we'd probably go .500. does that make us a good team nationally? no. odds are you'll win. odds are we'll give you fits. don't have an off night.