These two writers rank our matchup as the least likely to have an upset in the East bracket. (Peter Keating & Jordan Brenner)http://insider.espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/tournament/2012/story/_/id/7676733/2012-ncaa-tournament-giant-killers-top-upset-picks-east-region
St Bonaventure vs Florida State (22.1%)
Harvard vs Vanderbilt (19.7%)
Loyola Maryland vs Ohio State (9.5%)
UNC Ashville vs Syracuse (5.2%)
Yep you read it right, they believe that UNC-Ashville has a better chance of beating Syracuse than we do of beating Wisconsin.
No. 13 Montana (2.0) vs. No. 4 Wisconsin (21.8)
Upset chance: 4.3 percent
There's just enough here not to completely dismiss a slaying, and Wisconsin may be slightly overrated by tempo-free stats. But don't stake your bracket on this upset. The Badgers give the ball up just 15.1 percent of the time, which is second in the country, so you can forget about rattling them with pressure. They also own the offensive glass and absolutely smother opponents beyond the arc (giving up only 19.9 percent of their points from that distance, one of the best marks in the nation). If there's a weakness, Wisconsin doesn't score enough from 2-point range, which makes its offense less consistent than you'd like from a top-tier Giant. And the Badgers' weak nonconference performance isn't the greatest harbinger of success in these types of games.
But Montana isn't an ideal GK. Although the Grizzlies have won 14 straight games, their methods don't match those of effective Giant Killers. They're lousy on the offensive glass, below average in generating points from 3-point range (which is strange, because they hit 38.3 percent of their treys, so let it fly!) and haven't proved themselves against difficult competition. To their credit, they do a nice job of both preventing and forcing turnovers, although good luck trying to get Wisconsin to cough it up. And the Grizzlies defend the arc exceptionally well, allowing just 24.3 percent of opponents' points from downtown. But even though Will Cherry is a master thief (4.6 steal percentage, 15th in the nation) and Kareem Jamar could go off from 3 (44.5 percent), it's hard to find enough weapon