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Coaching changes can be tough, a quick look back

BWahlberg

Well-known member
DONOR
Transitions are tough sometimes. I think we, as fans, need to step back and look at the bigger picture. Some people are calling for a new coach after just 6 games into Stitt’s short Griz career. This happened in 2010 and in 2012… it happened in 2003 and it happened after at least the first game in 2000.

As fans we all react to things differently. None of us liked what happened on Saturday – but I would suggest to hold off on the knee-jerk reaction. Stitt and his coaching staff need more time than just 1 off-season to get this rolling. Our past hires have proven the same thing as well. Bob Stitt and crew have been handed a team mostly made up of players designed for a power-run / balanced offense and are trying to convert, with the same players, to a spread / zone / pass heavy offense. Now this doesn’t totally excuse the execution – many players should be able to adapt and thrive, however this is a team that’s almost entirely made up of guys brought in for a different system. What did we expect? No learning curve the first season? Come on, be realistic.

Look at the past few hires and their first seasons:

2010 with Pflugrad:

- 7-4 record
- Redesigned offense that averaged 25:50 T.O.P and 373 yards per game
- -7 turnover margin
- 54% TD scoring in the red zone
- Starting QB lost to injury, backup went the rest of the way

2012 with Mick Delaney

- 5-6 record
- Revamped offense with a new OC that averaged 28:00 TOP and 452 yards per game
- -2 turnover margin
- 58% TD scoring in the red zone
- Starting QB suspended before the season, next QB benched halfway due to ineffectiveness, 3rd string QB goes the rest of the way

Now compare to 2015 YTD with Stitt:

- 3-3 record
- Redesigned offense averaging 24:45 TOP and 434 yards per game
- -3 turnover margin
- 42% TD scoring in the red zone
- Starting QB injured, backup QB injured, 3rd string QB may be the guy the rest of the way – injury statuses largely unknown.

-----------------
Transitions can be tough and this is showing it so far. There’s a great sign for hope as well, again consider this;
2013 2nd season with Mick Delaney: 10-3 overall record and a 1st round playoff loss

2011 2nd season with Robin Plugrad: 11-3 overall record and a semi-final playoff loss*

2004 2nd season with Bobby Hauck: 13-2 overall record and a national championship loss

2001 2nd season with Joe Glenn: 14-1 overall record and a national championship win

(and yes I notice the downward trend – hard not to).

As fans here’s what I suggest:

1. Brace yourself for more bumps in the road this season

2. Expect vast improvements in Stitt’s 2nd season

3. Keep cheering for and supporting this team, the players and the coaches – it’s the least we can do


GO GRIZ!
 
I am certainly not calling for Stitt's head and I believe he will get on track. But, he has lost 2 games by 3 points or less yet forgoes 2 FG's against Weber. I understand that 7 points is better than 3 but with a team that is struggling in the red-zone a coach has to put his gut aside once in a while and get points on the board - which rewards the O for a drive. Who knows, could be a game winning decision.

Red Zone efficiency 77% -- tied for 73rd in the nation

Gardner Webb -- 100%
Lamar -- 96%
Montana St. -- 95.8%
Youngstown -- 95.5%
Richmond -- 94.7%

We have a lot of work to do with some of the best receivers in the nation....
 
grizindabox said:
Wonder what the outrage would have been following a 21-17 loss....

If the kid missed the 2nd FG then the comments would be the same minus the 4th down decisions. It is the fans right to comment on the teams they follow...
 
putter said:
grizindabox said:
Wonder what the outrage would have been following a 21-17 loss....

If the kid missed the 2nd FG then the comments would be the same minus the 4th down decisions. It is the fans right to comment on the teams they follow...

How about 21-20 then....

seriously, it is easy to second guess decisions now, but even if he elects to kick FG's, there is nothing but assumption that the Griz would have won...
 
grizindabox said:
putter said:
grizindabox said:
Wonder what the outrage would have been following a 21-17 loss....

If the kid missed the 2nd FG then the comments would be the same minus the 4th down decisions. It is the fans right to comment on the teams they follow...

How about 21-20 then....

seriously, it is easy to second guess decisions now, but even if he elects to kick FG's, there is nothing but assumption that the Griz would have won...

Yep, you are right. Seriously, what if he kicks the first chip shot FG and then still gets Roberts a TD? Then Montana has a lead. Looks it's all speculation and it will always be - you are the hero if it works, zero if it does not. What my point was - you have a team that is struggling in the red-zone.....why not put some points on the board and boost their confidence (and probably the D's as well).
 
putter said:
grizindabox said:
putter said:
grizindabox said:
Wonder what the outrage would have been following a 21-17 loss....

If the kid missed the 2nd FG then the comments would be the same minus the 4th down decisions. It is the fans right to comment on the teams they follow...

How about 21-20 then....

seriously, it is easy to second guess decisions now, but even if he elects to kick FG's, there is nothing but assumption that the Griz would have won...

Yep, you are right. Seriously, what if he kicks the first chip shot FG and then still gets Roberts a TD? Then Montana has a lead. Looks it's all speculation and it will always be - you are the hero if it works, zero if it does not. What my point was - you have a team that is struggling in the red-zone.....why not put some points on the board and boost their confidence (and probably the D's as well).

what happens to the confidence level if they pick up the 4th down and score 7...
 
Good points Brint. There is a 0% chance that Stitt won't fulfill the 3 years of his contract. 1 other piece of history to consider - since joining the Big Sky conference, only 2 times was a coaches record in their 3rd year better then their first 2, and also better than the last year of their predecessor - Swarthout and Read. Of course we don't know about Pflugrad, but without JJ I doubt his 3rd year would have been better than his 2nd either.
 
Grizbeer said:
Good points Brint. There is a 0% chance that Stitt won't fulfill the 3 years of his contract. 1 other piece of history to consider - since joining the Big Sky conference, only 2 times was a coaches record in their 3rd year better then their first 2, and also better than the last year of their predecessor - Swarthout and Read. Of course we don't know about Pflugrad, but without JJ I doubt his 3rd year would have been better than his 2nd either.

Yep for sure - most coaches boost their win total by 3 to 4 games in their 2nd seasons while at Montana.

Pflugrad didn't have a 3rd year, as you recall, he was let go after his 2nd season. 2011 was his 2nd year. 2012 - IF we had Pflu and JJ... yeah that team could've gone far, not sure if it was a national championship team as it had lost Breske and some of it's best pass defenders but who knows...

One other point though and this is something of good importance that you kind of bring up - the 2nd (and sometimes 3rd) season the coach had the right QB for their system.

2013 had JJ back

2011 also had JJ

2004 had Ochs

2001 had Edwards... and yeah he played a lot in 2000 but backed up Miller.

So perhaps the biggest question for 2016 and a more successful offense is... does Bob Stitt have the right QB for his system currently on the roster?
 
Thank- you Brint for your candor and positive out look but this thing has disaster written all over it. I hope like hell we destroy UND but this offense is in big trouble. Not to mention his horrible decision making at key points in a game he needs to give the line some help or the QB is a sitting duck. Forego a receiver for now and use Ralston or Wilson to help with blocking. The age old question.....do you put up the crossing guard after the car full of kids get run over by the train? Fundamentals of football.....BLOCKING and tackling. If we can't get it BLOCKED nothing else wll happen.
 
bigkid said:
Thank- you Brint for your candor and positive out look but this thing has disaster written all over it. I hope like hell we destroy UND but this offense is in big trouble. Not to mention his horrible decision making at key points in a game he needs to give the line some help or the QB is a sitting duck. Forego a receiver for now and use Ralston or Wilson to help with blocking. The age old question.....do you put up the crossing guard after the car full of kids get run over by the train? Fundamentals of football.....BLOCKING and tackling. If we can't get it BLOCKED nothing else wll happen.

Oh for sure, not saying it's all fine and dandy but worth pointing out that "we" as fans should be much more patient than we are right now. :thumb:
 
BWahlberg said:
Grizbeer said:
Good points Brint. There is a 0% chance that Stitt won't fulfill the 3 years of his contract. 1 other piece of history to consider - since joining the Big Sky conference, only 2 times was a coaches record in their 3rd year better then their first 2, and also better than the last year of their predecessor - Swarthout and Read. Of course we don't know about Pflugrad, but without JJ I doubt his 3rd year would have been better than his 2nd either.

Yep for sure - most coaches boost their win total by 3 to 4 games in their 2nd seasons while at Montana.

Pflugrad didn't have a 3rd year, as you recall, he was let go after his 2nd season. 2011 was his 2nd year. 2012 - IF we had Pflu and JJ... yeah that team could've gone far, not sure if it was a national championship team as it had lost Breske and some of it's best pass defenders but who knows...

One other point though and this is something of good importance that you kind of bring up - the 2nd (and sometimes 3rd) season the coach had the right QB for their system.

2013 had JJ back

2011 also had JJ

2004 had Ochs

2001 had Edwards... and yeah he played a lot in 2000 but backed up Miller.

So perhaps the biggest question for 2016 and a more successful offense is... does Bob Stitt have the right QB for his system currently on the roster?

In Willy Pflug I trust... And I couldn't be happier with my decision :)
 
Good Initial Post...I think the Griz season had expectations that went through the roof after beating NDSU, and then came tumbling back down to earth in the following weeks.

You have to give Stitt time, it was a risk to hire him, but you have to let it play out and a least bring in his recruits for a couple years.

I think the biggest issue moving forward for the Griz is who is going to be the QB next year. Would be nice to sort that out before the end of this year so the team can move forward with a #1 sure fire starter, which I would guess would be Gus. Also need to find replacements for Jones and Roberts as those will be two big holes to fill...

This years season is not lost either, you still have a shot at the Big Sky title and the playoffs...
 
marceagfan5 said:
Good Initial Post...I think the Griz season had expectations that went through the roof after beating NDSU, and then came tumbling back down to earth in the following weeks.

You have to give Stitt time, it was a risk to hire him, but you have to let it play out and a least bring in his recruits for a couple years.

I think the biggest issue moving forward for the Griz is who is going to be the QB next year. Would be nice to sort that out before the end of this year so the team can move forward with a #1 sure fire starter, which I would guess would be Gus. Also need to find replacements for Jones and Roberts as those will be two big holes to fill...

This years season is not lost either, you still have a shot at the Big Sky title and the playoffs...

Clearly you haven't read other threads here haha. We're going to finish 3-8, Stitt will be fired, Hauck rehired, 50,000 seats added to the stadium, and we will move up to the SEC.
 
BWahlberg said:
marceagfan5 said:
Good Initial Post...I think the Griz season had expectations that went through the roof after beating NDSU, and then came tumbling back down to earth in the following weeks.

You have to give Stitt time, it was a risk to hire him, but you have to let it play out and a least bring in his recruits for a couple years.

I think the biggest issue moving forward for the Griz is who is going to be the QB next year. Would be nice to sort that out before the end of this year so the team can move forward with a #1 sure fire starter, which I would guess would be Gus. Also need to find replacements for Jones and Roberts as those will be two big holes to fill...

This years season is not lost either, you still have a shot at the Big Sky title and the playoffs...

Clearly you haven't read other threads here haha. We're going to finish 3-8, Stitt will be fired, Hauck rehired, 50,000 seats added to the stadium, and we will move up to the SEC.

We're lining the canyon w/seats, another 80K in total, and it's actually the PAC 12. This way, there'll be a place for snakes, and seat-side tailgating. Nobody misses the friggin second half kickoff. Come on Brint.
 
what happens to the confidence level if they pick up the 4th down and score 7...


Or what happens to confidence level after failing twice and then losing to the Dweebs...AT HOME for the first time since 1987! We see what it has done to the confidence in Stitt by alumni that's for sure
 
BWahlberg said:
Now compare to 2015 YTD with Stitt:

- 3-3 record
- Redesigned offense averaging 24:45 TOP and 434 yards per game
- -3 turnover margin (If you choose to not consider the 12 turnovers from failed 4th down conversions)
- 42% TD scoring in the red zone
- Starting QB injured, backup QB injured, 3rd string QB may be the guy the rest of the way – injury statuses largely unknown.
 
The coaching changes to Dennehy (11-0), Glenn (10-1) and Hauck (9-3) weren't so tough; all made the playoffs with the first two making it to the chipper. Puzzling why "a quick look back" would not include these.
 
kemajic said:
BWahlberg said:
Now compare to 2015 YTD with Stitt:

- 3-3 record
- Redesigned offense averaging 24:45 TOP and 434 yards per game
- -3 turnover margin (If you choose to not consider the 12 turnovers from failed 4th down conversions)
- 42% TD scoring in the red zone
- Starting QB injured, backup QB injured, 3rd string QB may be the guy the rest of the way – injury statuses largely unknown.

That's a good point Kem,

12 failed 4th downs so far this year, if we stay on the same pace we'll finish with 22 failed 4th downs

9 failed 4th downs in 2012

5 failed 4th downs in 2010
 
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