• Hi Guest, want to participate in the discussions, keep track of read/unread posts and more? Create your free account and increase the benefits of your eGriz.com experience today!

FCS Poll Guesses (September 25)

IdaGriz01

Well-known member
With nine ranked teams losing, there will surely be some stirring around in the next poll. Of course, two of those were to FBS opponents and three were to other ranked FCS teams. Thus, with one possible exception, I do not see anyone dropping out of the top-25.

Poll Guess, Team, (Record), [Current Rank]
#1 NDSU (3-1) [1]
#2 SDSU (3-1) [2]
#3 Montana (4-0) [2]
#4 Montana State (3-1) [4]
#5 Sacrament State (3-0) [7]
#6 Delaware (4-0) [8]
#7 Missouri State (2-2) [6]
#8 Jackson State (4-0) [11]
#9 Weber State (4-0) [12]
#10 Incarnate Word (3-1) [4]
#11 Chattanooga (3-1) [10]
#12 Holy Cross (4-0) [13]
#13 Mercer (3-1) [17]
#14 Villanova (2-2) [9]
#15 UT Martin (2-2) [18]
#16 EWU (1-2) [15]
#17 Samford (3-1) [21]
#18 Richmond (3-1) [22]
#19 Rhode Island (2-2) [20]
#20 William & Mary (3-1) [14]
#21 Eastern Kentucky (2-2) [16]
#22 So. Illinois (2-2) [24]
#23 North Dakota (2-2) [19]
#24 Stephen F. Austin (2-2) [23]
#25 NC Central (4-0) [25]

Seems like blasphemy, but I’m guessing the pollsters will nudge South Dakota State back ahead of the Griz to be a sole #2. The Jacks won decisively at #6 Missouri State and I think that will impress the voters more than having the Griz stomp a team that hasn’t won a game. I expect that MSU will slip down only one spot, although it could be a bit more.

Incarnate Word posed a bit of a quandary. They actually out-gained SE Louisiana, but came up short on the scoreboard. Still, they might not drop as far as I’ve guessed, mainly because SELA’s two losses have been to FBS opponents. (More on SELA in a moment.)

Note that I have EWU slipping only one spot, because they lost by only a FG to a highly ranked opponent. However, that (1-2) record may hurt them more than I’m guessing.

The win by #24 Southern Illinois over #19 North Dakota was fairly decisive (17 points), so I figure the pollsters will at least flip-flop their positions in the poll. However, I could easily see the Salukis coming in a couple spots higher.

Which brings us back to SE Louisiana (now 2-2). As noted above, SELA’s two losses have been to FBS opponents (on the road, of course). We’ve seen Incarnate Word a couple times now, and they are legit ... recall that they decisively (55-41) beat FBS Nevada. It would not surprise me to see the pollsters reward SELA for their win over #4 UIW. The problem becomes: Who do you kick out to make room? My answer would be Stephen F. Austin (2-2), which hasn’t beat anyone that matters.
 
IdaGriz01 said:
With nine ranked teams losing, there will surely be some stirring around in the next poll. Of course, two of those were to FBS opponents and three were to other ranked FCS teams. Thus, with one possible exception, I do not see anyone dropping out of the top-25.

Poll Guess, Team, (Record), [Current Rank]
#1 NDSU (3-1) [1]
#2 SDSU (3-1) [2]
#3 Montana (4-0) [2]
#4 Montana State (3-1) [4]
#5 Sacrament State (3-0) [7]
#6 Delaware (4-0) [8]
#7 Missouri State (2-2) [6]
#8 Jackson State (4-0) [11]
#9 Weber State (4-0) [12]
#10 Incarnate Word (3-1) [4]
#11 Chattanooga (3-1) [10]
#12 Holy Cross (4-0) [13]
#13 Mercer (3-1) [17]
#14 Villanova (2-2) [9]
#15 UT Martin (2-2) [18]
#16 EWU (1-2) [15]
#17 Samford (3-1) [21]
#18 Richmond (3-1) [22]
#19 Rhode Island (2-2) [20]
#20 William & Mary (3-1) [14]
#21 Eastern Kentucky (2-2) [16]
#22 So. Illinois (2-2) [24]
#23 North Dakota (2-2) [19]
#24 Stephen F. Austin (2-2) [23]
#25 NC Central (4-0) [25]

Seems like blasphemy, but I’m guessing the pollsters will nudge South Dakota State back ahead of the Griz to be a sole #2. The Jacks won decisively at #6 Missouri State and I think that will impress the voters more than having the Griz stomp a team that hasn’t won a game.

Decisively? That game was 14-14 at the end of the 3rd quarter.
 
AZGrizFan said:
IdaGriz01 said:
...
Seems like blasphemy, but I’m guessing the pollsters will nudge South Dakota State back ahead of the Griz to be a sole #2. The Jacks won decisively at #6 Missouri State and I think that will impress the voters more than having the Griz stomp a team that hasn’t won a game.
Decisively? That game was 14-14 at the end of the 3rd quarter.
True. But SDSU owned the 4th quarter. And, in the end, they outgained MSU 475-258. Perhaps "decisive" is a bit too much ... maybe I should have said something like "handily." Either way, I think the pollsters will be impressed by a two-touchdown win on the road against a top-10 opponent.
 
IdaGriz01 said:
AZGrizFan said:
Decisively? That game was 14-14 at the end of the 3rd quarter.
True. But SDSU owned the 4th quarter. And, in the end, they outgained MSU 475-258. Perhaps "decisive" is a bit too much ... maybe I should have said something like "handily." Either way, I think the pollsters will be impressed by a two-touchdown win on the road against a top-10 opponent.

Yep, and most pollsters don't watch a lot of games and just look at scores
 
A 2-2 Missouri State has no business being in the top 10. Let alone being ahead of a 4-0 Weber team with an FBS win. Regardless of how awful that FBS team apparently is.

Just my two cents, and I know this is just your guess IdaGriz but it'll probably still happen.
 
WILDCATFAN said:
A 2-2 Missouri State has no business being in the top 10. Let alone being ahead of a 4-0 Weber team with an FBS win. Regardless of how awful that FBS team apparently is.

Just my two cents, and I know this is just your guess IdaGriz but it'll probably still happen.
No argument from me. My guesses are based on watching the collective behavior of the pollsters for a good many years now. It wouldn't shock me if MSU dropped a couple more spots, or even out of the top-10 (that 2-2 record does stick out), but it would surprise me. Keep in mind that Missouri State's other loss was to a pretty good Arkansas team (now ranked #20), and they only lost by 11 points. Those are the kind of things the pollsters do remember. Plus, they generally give MVFC teams the benefit of the doubt. Personally, I totally agree that the Bears should drop out of the top-10 ... I'm just skeptical that they will.

We'll see tomorrow.
 
IdaGriz01 said:
WILDCATFAN said:
A 2-2 Missouri State has no business being in the top 10. Let alone being ahead of a 4-0 Weber team with an FBS win. Regardless of how awful that FBS team apparently is.

Just my two cents, and I know this is just your guess IdaGriz but it'll probably still happen.
No argument from me. My guesses are based on watching the collective behavior of the pollsters for a good many years now. It wouldn't shock me if MSU dropped a couple more spots, or even out of the top-10 (that 2-2 record does stick out), but it would surprise me. Keep in mind that Missouri State's other loss was to a pretty good Arkansas team (now ranked #20), and they only lost by 11 points. Those are the kind of things the pollsters do remember. Plus, they generally give MVFC teams the benefit of the doubt. Personally, I totally agree that the Bears should drop out of the top-10 ... I'm just skeptical that they will.

We'll see tomorrow.

Maybe Mo State is the new UNI? :lol:
 
AZGrizFan said:
IdaGriz01 said:
No argument from me. My guesses are based on watching the collective behavior of the pollsters for a good many years now. It wouldn't shock me if MSU dropped a couple more spots, or even out of the top-10 (that 2-2 record does stick out), but it would surprise me. Keep in mind that Missouri State's other loss was to a pretty good Arkansas team (now ranked #20), and they only lost by 11 points. Those are the kind of things the pollsters do remember. Plus, they generally give MVFC teams the benefit of the doubt. Personally, I totally agree that the Bears should drop out of the top-10 ... I'm just skeptical that they will.

We'll see tomorrow.

Maybe Mo State is the new UNI? :lol:

Kinda seems like the Bobs are making a play for that crown. If they stayed at #4 after losing by forty points, they could be #1 this week after being gifted a W.
 
CDAGRIZ said:
AZGrizFan said:
Maybe Mo State is the new UNI? :lol:

Kinda seems like the Bobs are making a play for that crown. If they stayed at #4 after losing by forty points, they could be #1 this week after being gifted a W.

Spot on!!! Cats beat a bad Eastern team by the skin of their teeth ( do teeth have skin really?) The Cats are a one dimensional running team with so many injuries at running back, they don’t have a depth chart. This is not the 4th best team in the country. They’re getting votes for their run to the championship game LAST year. This not the same TEAM! I trust the Sagarin rankings more than the coach’s or writer’s poll in this case. That being said, I wish them all-and their delusional fan base-the worst of the luck. FTC!!!!
 
Looking forward to your poll guesses after the poor showing by the Griz at Pokey.
Do they drop a spot? Especially if the Boob Cats take down Davis tonight.
 
grizturd said:
Looking forward to your poll guesses after the poor showing by the Griz at Pokey.
Do they drop a spot? Especially if the Boob Cats take down Davis tonight.

And, if Sac St. continues their shutout of Cal Poly I could see Sac St. rising too.
 
AKGriz72 said:
I’m thinking we fall to 4, possibly 5.
Sac State already pounded Cal Poly, so they are certainly lurking in the wings. Right now, the kitties are winning, but not blowing out Davis. . If MSU stretches it out in the 2nd half for a big win, then I'd lean towards a drop to 5 for the Griz.. If they don't, then I could see Sac jumping both, with UM down to 4, MSU to 5.
 
We should flip with both sac and MSU moving ahead of us. The team could use some motivation anyways. They need some bulletin board material to motivate them. Maybe then they’ll bring some energy on the road with them.
 
hm.grwn.grizfan said:
We should flip with both sac and MSU moving ahead of us. The team could use some motivation anyways. They need some bulletin board material to motivate them. Maybe then they’ll bring some energy on the road with them.

I don't know how the cats don't jump the Griz. Better wins at this point IMO.
 
IdaGriz01 said:
AKGriz72 said:
I’m thinking we fall to 4, possibly 5.
Sac State already pounded Cal Poly, so they are certainly lurking in the wings. Right now, the kitties are winning, but not blowing out Davis. . If MSU stretches it out in the 2nd half for a big win, then I'd lean towards a drop to 5 for the Griz.. If they don't, then I could see Sac jumping both, with UM down to 4, MSU to 5.

I'll never understand moving a team down after a win. The cats didn't beat ndsu, no way they move ahead. I definitely think they'll close the points gap on us, but good Lord we won a game we controlled for 52 minutes, and let two "garbage time" TDs occur in the end (at least how pollsters will see it, especially with Johnson getting benched, they'll see it as Griz getting play time for backups). scats played well against a 1-3 team, and pollsters will also see that (a 1-3 team, not the BSC leaders). As far as Sac St, they beat a bad Poly team as they should have, but still gave up 21.

FWIW, ndsu beat a middle-of-the-pack MVFC team 34-17, and sdsu beat the projected worst MVFC team 34-10, both at home...we're just fine, it's football, lots of things happen and pollsters understand a win is a win.
 
#15 Fan said:
...
I'll never understand moving a team down after a win. The cats didn't beat ndsu, no way they move ahead. I definitely think they'll close the points gap on us, but good Lord we won a game we controlled for 52 minutes, and let two "garbage time" TDs occur in the end (at least how pollsters will see it, especially with Johnson getting benched, they'll see it as Griz getting play time for backups). scats played well against a 1-3 team, and pollsters will also see that (a 1-3 team, not the BSC leaders). As far as Sac St, they beat a bad Poly team as they should have, but still gave up 21.

FWIW, ndsu beat a middle-of-the-pack MVFC team 34-17, and sdsu beat the projected worst MVFC team 34-10, both at home...we're just fine, it's football, lots of things happen and pollsters understand a win is a win.
A good summation and, I think, valid. My comment last night was in the heat of the moment. In my experience, it is rare for the pollsters to jump a team based just on Margin of Victory. Everybody above #7 won, so I'd guess nothing will change. (Although, as you say, the point totals may tighten up some.)

In fact, I probably wouldn't even do a poll guess this week ... except for the "fun" of trying to predict what the pollsters will do with Missouri State. After three straight losses, they could go into free fall. Their earlier near-miss at FBS Arkansas can only carry them so far.

The other two losses by ranked teams should be fairly routine for the pollsters. Be interesting to see the results for today's EWU game. I don't see an upset possible, but anything less than a complete blowout (which is what I expect) might actually be good for he Eags.
 

Latest posts

Back
Top