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North Dakota State Bison Scouting Report

BWahlberg

Well-known member
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The Griz are headed to Fargo to face off against the greatest dynasty ever in FCS football… maybe all of college football. Since his 2nd hire we know that Bobby Hauck and staff have looked to NDSU as the model program to build this Montana team after. They’ve not yet had a chance to see how that progress is going, but now… they will. Both teams are battling some tough injury news, NDSU is coming off a bye week, while Montana of course tallied a first round comeback win against SEMO.

The talk is that NDSU is down this year, and here’s a down year for the Bison – they actually lost their play-up game (a loss to Arizona by 3) which snapped a 6 game win streak against FBS teams, and they lost to #1 team South Dakota State by 2 points at home. That’s it… that’s a down year for them.

Prior history is really in the Bison’s favor. They’ve won 38 games in a row coming off a bye (combined regular and post season). They’re 40-3 overall in the post-season and I believe have only lost at home once – to eventual national title winner JMU. This year the Bison defense is allowing just 14 points per game at home.

NDSU Bison 9-2

56-14 win vs Drake: 21 couldn’t do something for Drake this day and NDSU rushed for nearly 275 and added another 112 on for passing. Drake was held to just under 220 yards and lost 2 turnovers in the game. Recall Drake would go on a few weeks later to play Idaho, losing 42-14 with fairly similar stats in the game (210 yards total for Drake / 450 total yards for Idaho).

43-3 win vs North Carolina A&T: Kind of a ho-hum game. NCA&T had just 189 yards of offense and lost 3 turnovers. NDSU had low numbers on offense, 150 rushing, 125 passing. It was 36-3 at the half. 2 of NDSU’s touchdown drives were super short field thanks to turnovers.

28-31 loss @ Arizona: 7 lead changes in this back and forth game. NDSU oddly had the game set up how they like it – a later 4th quarter lead – but they couldn’t close it out in their typical fashion. NDSU with a 4 point lead would wind up turning the ball over on downs at the Arizona 22, and the Wilcats made them pay – going 78 yards to score the go-ahead TD. With the ball back NDSU promptly goes 3 and out with a little less than 3 minutes left in the game they’re forced to punt it away. Arizona would not give the ball back and run out the clock after converting a pivotal 3rd and 3. NDSU slightly outgained Arizona, 407 total (283 rush / 124 pass) to 394 yards (165 rush / 229 pass). NDSU did lose a fumble that turned into a TD drive for Arizona and had that costly late turnover on downs.

34-17 win vs South Dakota: In the first of 2 games with common opponents to Montana the Bison piled up the rushing yards (356 total) and held USD to a total of 266 yards. It was a sloppy game for both teams, NDSU lost 2 fumbles and tossed 1 pick, while USD lost 4 total turnovers.

27-14 win vs Youngstown State: YSU was on the wrong side of the bubble, but did post a 7-4 record like Montana. NDSU again ran the hell out of it, 230 rushing. Their defense held YSU to 281 yards on the day. YSU was really limited on possessions as the game went on. They had 4 in the first quarter, and 5 more the rest of the game.

31-26 win @ Indiana State: Common opponent #2 was a tougher than expected road game for the Bison, in fact NDSU was down 13-3 until making it 13-10 with about 1 minute to go until the half. In the 2nd half NDSU goes up on an early TD, 17-13… but then promptly give up an 82 yard TD run to fall back down 20-17. Ever unflappable the Bison would reply with a long TD drive, then stop ISU to get the ball back. NDSU would lose a fumble on their next possession but force a 3 and out, get the ball back, and score again. At this point it’s now 31-20 with under 6 minutes left in the game. ISU would respond with a TD drive and a failed 2 point attempt – but don’t recover the onsides and NDSU runs out the clock. ISU had a fairly balanced stat sheet, 178 rushing, 168 passing. While NDSU had 306 on the ground alone.

21-23 loss vs South Dakota State: NDSU was up 21-7 at the half and save 1 long SDSU TD drive was in total control. The 2nd half was a different story, SDSU would hold NDSU to just 59 total yards, while they would score on 4 consecutive possessions (3 FGs / 1 TD). SDSU totally shut down the mighty Bison rushing game – allowing just 127 total yards in the game. NDSU had more passing stats than I’ve seen in most games, 227 in the air but also an interception that ended a would-be scoring drive in the 2nd quarter. SDSU’s defense won the day in the end – NDSU was forced into having to pass more in their last drive and wound up turning the ball over on downs to effectively seal the deal.

24-7 win vs Illinois State: Back to what they do best, NDSU smothered the ISU offense, ran the ball well, and limited opponent possessions. Former Griz Bryson Deming had 2 catches for 22 yards against NDSU in the game.

56-17 win @ Western Illinois: Just a causal 453 rushing for the Bison in this one. Western Illinois tossed 4 interceptions in the game too… ouch.

21-18 win @ Southern Illinois: SIU was down 7-3 at the half, and took a 10-7 lead in the 3rd. NDSU would then got back up 14-10 in the early 4th – they then stopped SIU, got the ball back, and scored again. It’s now 21-10 and all NDSU has to do is prevent the comeback. SIU puts together an 81 yard TD drive + a 2 point conversion but took way to much time doing so. With 37 seconds to go they wouldn’t recover the onsides and lose the game. SIU held NSDU to 150 rushing and 80 passing – outgaining the Bison by about 70 total yards of offense. Recall SIU lost to SEMO by 3 (34-31) in a shootout where both teams had nearly 400 yards of offense.

42-21 win vs North Dakota: NDSU controlled the game the whole way, they never were trailing. They had a 28-7 lead before a late 2nd quarter UND touchdown and then would outscore UND 14-7 in the 2nd half. NDSU ran for 363 while UND had 318 total yards. NDSU only punted twice in the whole game.


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General Stats

Passing yards per game UM (229 for UM vs 137 for NDSU)
Rushing yards per game NDSU (172 for UM vs 262 for NDSU)
Total offense UM (400 for UM vs 399 for NDSU)
Passing yards allowed per game NDSU (195 for UM vs 145 for NDSU)
Rushing yards allowed per game UM (130 for UM vs 147 for NDSU)
Total defense NDSU (324 for UM vs 292 for NDSU)

I kind of want to rule the total offense as a push… but a yard is a yard. We split the categories 3-3.

Offense points scored NDSU (37 for UM vs 38.4 for NDSU)
Defense points allowed NDSU (19 for UM vs 17.4 for NDSU)
Turnover margin NDSU (+1 for UM / +8 for NDSU)
Fieldgoal % NDSU (64% for UM vs 67% for NDSU)
Punt Returns UM (14.3 yards for UM vs 12 yards for NDSU)
Kick Returns UM (29.6 yards for UM vs 20.9 yards for NDSU)
T.O.P. NDSU (28:17 for UM vs 31:19 for NDSU)
Red Zone defense (touchdowns) UM (62% UM / 65% NDSU)
Red Zone offense (touchdowns) NDSU (65% UM / 74% NDSU)
3rd down offense NDSU – (46% for UM / 54% for NDSU)
3rd down defense UM – (33% allowed for UM vs 39% allowed for NDSU)

Bigger pull for NDSU here, they get 7 to Montana’s 4. Totals are NDSU 10 – Montana 7.

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Players to Watch:

#44 Hunter Luepke, FB: As we all know by now his status is doubtful for Saturday. Luepke is NFL bound, he’s a bruiser of a fullback. He leads the team with 621 rushing yards and 9 rushing TDs, he’s also 3rd in receptions and has 196 yards and a team high 4 TD receptions. He’s 6-1, 236.

#22 TaMerik Williams, RB: Another big dude, he’s 6-1, 229 and has the 2nd most amount of yards on the team. He’s got 559 rushing and 7 TDs this season. Just 20 receiving yards so far.

#7 Cam Miller, QB: Cam is 4th on the team in rushing yards with 263, however he is first in rushing TDs with 11. Passing he’s averaging 132.5 per game, has 10 TDs and 2 INTs.

#4 Kobe Johnson, RB: Kobe is a smaller back compared to the others on the team, he’s 5-9 188, I wonder if we see a lot of him after NDSU looks at our MSU game film? He has 508 on the ground and 3 TDs, another 28 yards receiving and 1 receiving TD. He’s also one of their kick returners and holds the highest average per return at 26.8.

#0 Zach Mathis, WR: At 6-6 he’s their big target in the passing game. Mathis leads the team in receiving yards with 330 and he’s got 3 TDs this season.

#28 TK Marhsall, RB: TK could see the field a bit more with one of NDSU’s other RBs hitting the portal. He’s got 225 rushing yards & 3 rushing TDs this season.

#53 Eli Mostaert, DL: Unsure if he’ll be ready for this game or not, one of the best FCS linemen when healthy, he broke is leg early in the season. He’s been working his way back and reports are he’s running again in practice. Unsure his status for us but the bye week gave him more time to rest up. He’s a 1st-team all conference player. Last year he had 7.5 sacks and 10 TFLs.

#26 James Kazcor, LB: The leading tackler on the team with 69 tackles (nice). He’s got 3 sacks, 5.5 TFLS, and 1 interception.

#99 Spencer Waege, DE: A 6-5, 282 pound end this guy leads the team in sacks with 7. He’s got 13 TFLs, 5 QB hits, and 33 total tackles.

#25 Michael Tutsie, DB: A 1st team all conference player, Tutsie is 2nd on the team with 50 tackles. He’s got 1 INT, a team best 5 pass breakups, and 1 recovered fumble. Dude is 5-11, 189 – seems like he’s their Robby Hauck!

#36 Nick Kubitz, LB: A 6-2, 225 backer he’s got 47 tackles and 4.5 TFLs this season so far.


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Keys to a Grizzly victory


1. Slow down the running game. NDSU might be down their best runner but that might not mean much as they are a system just built on reloading with special talent. It starts with their O-line and power run game which Montana must disrupt enough. NDSU wins grinding it out and controlling the ball. Notice their red zone efficiency as well, it’s insane. For Montana to win they have to do enough to keep NDSU’s rushing attack from controlling the game. That means limiting 3rd and short situations, keeping NDSU out of the RZ as much as possible, and forcing them into passing situations as much as possible.

2. Use your skill players like you haven’t before. We saw what happened when Flowers got the touches he should have last week – dude had his best overall career game I think. I think Bergen and Grossman need 5+ touches each. I’d love to see Flowers and Roberts get some similar use to what they had against SEMO too. What’s interesting is that NDSU’s pass defense, statistically is amazing, but when I pull MVFC the conference as a whole appears to largely focus on running and ball control. There’s only 3 teams with at/over 250 passing/game (UNI and Missori State – who NDSU didn’t play – and SIU, who they did). Stats be damned, Montana needs to use our talent like we’ve not done much this season in the passing game.

3. Lucas Johnson needs to have his career game as a Griz. The legend of this dude could be cemented with the best game of his career on Saturday. Point #2 plays into it – he needs to have 250+ passing, and that’s against a defense that allows 100/game less than that on average. Lucas has had issues of late (even last week) missing wide open targets like Grossman early. He can’t do that on Saturday. He’ll need to be dialed in and on fire. Additionally, we need him to use his legs too and make NDSU respect and prepare for his mobility too.

4. Montana has to win the turnover battle. Their trend of late has not been this way and NDSU doesn’t really turn it over much (3 lost picks and 6 lost fumbles). Montana’s offense even against SEMO gave up a scoop and score and lost a RZ turnover of their own. Giving NDSU a 7 or more point swing with turnovers will sink us for sure. NDSU does have 11 picks but a good portion came against bad teams.

5. Wash out the MSU errors. The Griz will be facing some similar challenges that they had in the brawl. An offensive attack where the run is a known play (totally different style of attack though) and wickedly loud crowd noise. In the Brawl Montana couldn’t stop the run and let the crowd noise totally disrupt their timing on offense – especially with the O-line. Can the Griz be better prepared for both this time?

6. Score on special teams. NDSU’s kick coverage is good, but not great, their net is in the top half of their conference barely, they do have quite a few touchbacks, if we can get a few Flowers returns there could be a chance there. Kind of the same for net punting. There could be some opportunities there. However, NDSU’s coaching staff is one of the best in the FCS, I’m betting they gameplan to neutralize our dangerous returners.

7. Prayer wouldn’t help. An old line from a commercial with Bill Parcels haha. This is a monumental challenge for the Griz on the road. We’ll need perfect execution, a sloppy NDSU, and a little (or a lot) of luck.


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Montana has a good rush defense statistically, NDSU has a great rush offense. Montana has a better passing offense than all but 1 team NDSU has faced this year, while NDSU has a great pass defense statistically. Talk about a major test for the Griz.

Montana, on the road against ranked teams is 0-3 this year, in each of those games they scored 24, 21, and 21 points – while allowing 31, 24, and 55. That suggests if all things hold the same, NDSU should come away with a 36-22 type of win. NDSU’s injury news has given me some hope, but Montana’s dinged up like hell too. Will the emotions from the SEMO win carry over, or will we fizzle out?

My head tells me this is the end of the line. Montana maybe holds it closer than their prior road outings but loses 31-20 in the end. My heart… well… I always have hope there. If this truly is something this staff and this roster has literally prepared for for years, then maybe we find a way. We’ve seen stranger things… hell even @ UW last year. If the Griz can overcome the challenges in that dome and take on what is perceived to be a “weaker” NDSU team, for some reason 28-23 Griz feels like it could happen.

GO GRIZ!
 
Agreed, they have some studs down but so do we, their fan page is nervous about this game and should be as we don't know what team will show up.
Key for me is get up on them early and let them run the clock with their run attack, but or D has to show up and Rohrbach needs to keep the field flipped. We finally get to play in a nice comfy dome out of the cold and frozen field, hopefully that can give us a boost, remember LJ is a southern QB so maybe the climate change will help him too. Would also love to see Gillman get some touches here as they heavily recruited him as well.
 
grizare#1 said:
Agreed, they have some studs down but so do we, their fan page is nervous about this game and should be as we don't know what team will show up.
Key for me is get up on them early and let them run the clock with their run attack, but or D has to show up and Rohrbach needs to keep the field flipped. We finally get to play in a nice comfy dome out of the cold and frozen field, hopefully that can give us a boost, remember LJ is a southern QB so maybe the climate change will help him too. Would also love to see Gillman get some touches here as they heavily recruited him as well.

Good point on LJ playing in “neutral” weather
 
Not expecting it, but griz can win this game, especially with a few ST amaze-balls/overwhelming runbacks for 6 to shock them into submission and have them staring at their cleats and taking early time outs to calm everyone down. If there ever was a year, this IS the year. No matter what would happen down the stretch, beating NDSU at home would radically change um's momentum the following year. Good luck frenemies, but hoping for a Cat win/griz loss if truth be told.
 
Bobby’s had 5 years to prepare for this game. Let’s hope he doesn’t shit the opportunity down his leg.
 
Johnson will be the key for us. If we are moving the ball and keeping NDSU’s offense off the field we have a chance. When Johnson tucks and runs he can really have an impact. He can make great throws and does at times. He makes me very nervous though regarding ball security. He doesn’t have too many interceptions but it seems to me he has a lot of near interceptions. A good team might make a 1 or 2 of those near interceptions into actual interceptions. That would be fatal in this game.
 
Drew Deck and Eli Gillman could be a couple secret weapons that no one has film on, Gillman I think can fill in for Ostmo if he is not available to go and Deck is a speedy shifty little running slot receiver that has been waiting in the wings and has great hands. But LJ is the key, can he gash them in this game like he did the second half of last weekend? I hope the coaches pull all the stops out for this game as I bet there will not be a team more rooted for in the FCS than the Griz this weekend. No body wants to see NDSU headed to Frisco again and the Griz may just be that team that can stop them.
We have all seen what the Griz are capable of, now just go do it!!!!!
GO GRIZ
 
Get Grossman the ball multiple times. Nobody matches up with him. Let him control the middle of the field.

Be creative in getting the ball in Bergens hands. He needs at least 5-6 non special teams touches. Same with flowers. Give him a couple runs.

Play this game on the edges. Use our big WRs outside. Run sweeps and end arounds with Flowers and Bergen and let them hit the edges.

If we play NDSU in a phone booth we lose bad. If we play them in an open field we have a chance. Does Rosey have it in him to force any of the things above? I have little faith.
 
So what effect does this have on the game?

Key Bison football players Sigle, Hart, Gonnella will enter transfer portal
 
In addition to solid play, we will need some big breaks to win. I'm thinking one special teams score and at least +2 on turnovers.

Absent some breaks, I think the Bison win: 24-13.
 
ranco said:
In addition to solid play, we will need some big breaks to win. I'm thinking one special teams score and at least +2 on turnovers.

Absent some breaks, I think the Bison win: 24-13.

Agreed entirely.

And +2 on turnovers (I believe) would be the first time this season for NDSU. I think they were -1 in a few games, but never -2 or worse.
 
BadlandsGrizFan said:
Get Grossman the ball multiple times. Nobody matches up with him. Let him control the middle of the field.

Be creative in getting the ball in Bergens hands. He needs at least 5-6 non special teams touches. Same with flowers. Give him a couple runs.

Play this game on the edges. Use our big WRs outside. Run sweeps and end arounds with Flowers and Bergen and let them hit the edges.

If we play NDSU in a phone booth we lose bad. If we play them in an open field we have a chance. Does Rosey have it in him to force any of the things above? I have little faith.

I agree with your points to winning. If we have a chance, we will need to open-up the offense, and stop trying to run up the middle on first down, resulting in too many second-and-longs
 
RoseyMustGo said:
BadlandsGrizFan said:
Get Grossman the ball multiple times. Nobody matches up with him. Let him control the middle of the field.

Be creative in getting the ball in Bergens hands. He needs at least 5-6 non special teams touches. Same with flowers. Give him a couple runs.

Play this game on the edges. Use our big WRs outside. Run sweeps and end arounds with Flowers and Bergen and let them hit the edges.

If we play NDSU in a phone booth we lose bad. If we play them in an open field we have a chance. Does Rosey have it in him to force any of the things above? I have little faith.

I agree with your points to winning. If we have a chance, we will need to open-up the offense, and stop trying to run up the middle on first down, resulting in too many second-and-longs

But that is what NDSU does and we want to be like them - thus sayeth Bobby H or something similar
 
I’m not feeling it. 34-10 NDSU. I really hope I’m wrong and am embarrassed by this post by late Saturday afternoon.
 
I guess statistically the teams are very equal. Saragin Ratings are 68 ndsu 81 Montana so a huge difference here.
Home field ndsu. Bottom line is can Montana’s offensive line execute and give Johnson time, can Montana slow down ndsu’ s running game and can we NOT TURNOVER THE BALL! Not to mention some timely bounces and a few calls go our way. I’m confident we can play with these guys…….
Montana………………….31
ndsu…………………………24

Go Griz!
 
BadlandsGrizFan said:
Get Grossman the ball multiple times. Nobody matches up with him. Let him control the middle of the field.

Be creative in getting the ball in Bergens hands. He needs at least 5-6 non special teams touches. Same with flowers. Give him a couple runs.

Play this game on the edges. Use our big WRs outside. Run sweeps and end arounds with Flowers and Bergen and let them hit the edges.

If we play NDSU in a phone booth we lose bad. If we play them in an open field we have a chance. Does Rosey have it in him to force any of the things above? I have little faith.

Agreed, especially your last paragraph. We need to use the entire field .
 
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