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2013 MWC - Fantasy Computer Sim - Week 3 (UM & NDSU)

ordigger

ordigger

Well-known member
DONOR
My Predictions in BOLD

MWC - Week 3 Schedule
Conference Games:
Nevada (1-1) @ Montana (2-0)

Non-Conference Games:
Hawaii (0-2) @ Oregon State (1-1)
San Jose State (1-1) @ Minnesota (2-0)
Western Illinois @ UNLV (0-2)
New Mexico (0-1) @ Texas-El Paso (1-0)
Southern Mississipp (0-2)i @ Boise State (1-1)
Cal Poly (0-1) @ Colorado State (2-0)
Air Force (2-0) @ Navy (0-1)
Central Michigan (0-1) @ North Dakota State (0-2)
Idaho (0-2) @ Wyoming (1-1)

No Game:
Fresno State
San Diego State
Utah State
 
Week 3 Results (Home team in Bold)

(0-3) Hawaii 24
(2-1) Oregon State 51

(2-1) San Jose State 34
(2-1) Minnesota 28

(1-1) Western Illinois 3
(1-2) UNLV 44

(0-2) New Mexico 21
(2-0) Texas-El Paso 38

(0-3) Southern Mississippi 11
(2-1) Boise State 24

(0-2) Cal-Poly 0
(3-0) Colorado State 87

(2-1) Air Force 7
(1-1) Navy 31

(0-2) Central Michigan 27
(1-2) North Dakota State 37

(0-3) Idaho 24
(2-1) Wyoming 31


Nevada @ Montana......writeup soon

7-2 on my picks going into Griz game
 
Nevada Wolfpack @ Montana GRIZZLIES!!!

After last week's shellacking of Idaho in Missoula, the Grizzlies once again face a former Big Sky foe at home. This week Nevada makes the trip north for the first time in almost twenty years - and as a new league foe in the Mountain West. Some fans had problems getting to the game, as their was an organized protest about Montana's move to FBS led by a local prominent attorney.

But the game started on time, and with almost 26,000 fans in attendance, Montana begins its 2013 conference schedule. Nevada won the toss, and deferred to the Griz who went a quick 3&out. The Wolfpack sport the Pistol formation, and qb Fajardo on first down immediately makes the Griz pay on a 27 yard bootleg. The look continues to give the Griz fits, as the Wolfpack drive quickly to the 7 yard line, and then the Griz red line defense steps up stopping Brock for a 2 yard loss, and then a Tyrone Holmes sack forcing Zuzo to kick a 28 yd FG. Nevada 3 Montana 0

With the ensuing kickoff the Grizzlies fail to move the ball again, and its another 3&out. This time Fajardo decides to pass, quickly hitting Arendse for a 54 short out pass that he manages to break past Hermanson. The Wolfpack drive once again into the red zone....and this time Fajardo hits Wimberly in the corner with 7 minutes left in the first quarter. XP is good Nevada 10 Montana 0

Despite being down 10 early, fans are still in the game knowing that the Grizzlies have Jordy Johnson at qb. Johnson has gotten off to a red hot start this season, proving he can play FBS ball. Ellis Henderson returns the ball to the 22, and then catches a 17 yard strike from JJ, who starts to mix up his receivers also hitting Jones, Van and Canada. From the Wolfpack 37 Johnson throws to Henderson, but is drilled by Hanson who gets a roughing the passer call moving the chains 15 yards. From their, Johnson turns to Canada, who catches a 13 yard pass...and then scores off the left side from 6 yards out. Nevada 10 Montana 7

As the first quarter ends, Nevada is unable to drive the ball, as the Griz defense steps up, including a big sack by Takai for a 6 yard loss. With the ball, Johnson hits Cam Warren for 16 yards, then pitches it to Canada for 14 more. From their the ground game takes over as Van & Canada follow their blocks, and from the 10 yard line, Johnson finds Canada in the end zone for another Griz touchdown, and the lead! Montana 14 Nevada 10

The Griz defensive line continue to hammer at the Wolfpack...and get their 3rd sack of the game when Wags takes down a scrambling Fajardo. This time Nevada is unable to move the ball, and the Griz take overon their own 20. Despite a Jones sack, the Grizzlies move the ball mainly thanks to two costly penalties, the first a holding the face mask on Lyons, and then Hanson for roughing the passer again! Griz fans are yelling at Hanson. Johnson on the other hand, gets back to work - and from the Nevada 32 he finds Henderson aon the medium cross, Keeton misses him....and EH is gone! TOUCHDOWN MONTANA!!!! Montana 21 Nevada 10

The Griz offense is clicking, and the defense is feeding off the energy as fans sense Montana has the momentum. Fajardo moves the Wolfpack though with his feet, more than his arm...and they drive to the Montana 20 where they stall after a couple of passes that Turner misses. Zuzo is in for the 38 yard FG, and he pulls it. NO GOOD!

Griz begin their next possession with Canada on the bench nursing some sort of injury as trainers are attending to him on the sideline. Van scampers for 10, and Nguyen for another 9 and Montana crosses midfield with 3:22 left in the half. Here's the call .....

1st and 10
Johnson, pitches left to Van
drilled by Dobrich at the 48!
loose ball!!
picked up Dobrich
he has room to run
20
10
he's going to score!
Touchdown!

What a deflating play for the Grizzlies who had driven for 3 successive touchdowns on their possessions, and were coming off the missed Nevada FG. Zuzo kicks the extra point Montana 21 Nevada 17

As the first half winds down, Jones earns his 2nd sack of the game on Johnson. JJ then throws an interception to Favors effectively ending the half as the teams go to the locker room. All-in-all it was an exciting first half, and Montana is posed for another upset.
 
Second Half

So who has made the right adjustments or should we say the best adjustments for the 2nd half. Thanks to the fumble return the Wolfpack have stolen the momentum going into the 3rd quarter. The Grizzlies have been unable to stop Cody Fajardo on the ground this game, and right off he takes the ball for 18 yards downfield. A couple pitches to Solomon for small gains, and then a power sweep for 24 by Solomon and Nevada is knocking in the red zone at the Griz 7. Rather than go to the air, Nevada once again runs it, this time with Jackson who scores, and the Wolfpack regain the lead Nevada 24 Montana 21

With Canada still nursing an injury, the Griz are going with Nguyen and Van, but its a couple of nice throws to Jones that gets Montana moving. Nguyen gains 9, then catches for another 7.....and then after a Johnson to Haynes 12 yard pass - Nguyen runs it for 5 yd score, with the Worst XP. Montana 28 Nevada 24

Neither team is unable to mount much effort as the 3rd quarter ticks on. With 3:25 left Wags picks up another sack, his 2nd of the game....but Fajardo comes right back and hits Wimberly for 12 yards setting up a 40 yard FG by Zuzo. Montana 28 Nevada 27

Its a close game going into the 4th, probably closer than most imagined, but the Grizzlies have already proven they can play at this level with their week 1 upset despite being dominated by Oregon State. If they can pull off a victory here they are set up nicely for their next two non-conference games against UMass and Montana State. Vegas bookies seemed to understand this team much better than the fans, as the Grizzlies went out at an impressive 17 point favorite. However they are in a fight now, so back to the game.

As Fajardo and the Wolfpack begin the 4th quarter, he makes a rare mistake in this game throwing a pick to Goodwin, who earlier in the season had a pick 6. This time he returns it for 24 yards, setting up Montana at midfield. Two quick passes, one to Warren, and then a 37 yd fly to Henderson - and Montana is once again in the end zone early in the 4th. Montana 35 Nevada 27 And the fans are going crazy!

As we return to action, Fajardo is obviously shaken as he is unable to hit receivers until.....whoops wrong guy....Bo Tully steps in front and picks it off with 11:41 left in the game. A touchdown here could really put the squeeze on Nevada. Johnson hits Warren for a 41 yard strike quickly....and after a Jones 13 yard reception the Grizzlies are at the Wolfpack 14. Warren has had a great game today! But without Canada, the Grizzlies struggle in the red zone and half to settle for a Field Goal. Montana 38 Nevada 27

With 8 minutes left in the game the Grizzly keep Fajardo under pressure, yet each time he scrambles for a gain, 17 yards, then another 17 - and finally 11 yards giving him 186 yards rushing in the game so far. Yet, its not Fajardo who the Wolfpack give it to at the 4 yard line, Fajardo hands it to Brock he plunges in for the touchdown. The Wolfpack go for 2....and fail the conversion. Montana 38 Nevada 33

And then disaster strikes for Montana!!!! Johnson is dropping back to pass, and Hekking nails him for the sack....AND the fumble! Nevada now has the ball at the Grizzly 22 yard line with just 3:19 left in the game. Fajardo rushes for 5, and then Harris commits an offsides. From the 17, the Wolfpack need a touchdown....a field goal does them no good. Fajardo tries to get around the edge but Brock Coyle stops him cold. - then a quick pass to Wimberly which falls incomplete. It's 3rd and 10.....4 down terriotory. Fajardo drops back to pass.....great coverage downfield! Fajardo has to scramble he makes a cut.....and BOOM Kanongata hits him, and stops what was a sure first down. He does manage to gain 8....setting up a 4th&2 from the Griz 9 yard line....here's the call.

Nevada in a hurry up
Fajardo sets up in the pocket
Montana applying pressure
short out to Henderson in the end zone
hit by Hermanson
he's got it!
NO....the ball is knocked loose
incomplete

And the Grizzlies take over on downs.....and manage to kill the clock and win the game.

Final Score:

(3-0) Montana 38
(1-2) Nevada 33

Couple of things here. I know the naysayers are going no way this happens. No way the Griz can be 3-0. I have played hundreds of games with these sim programs in Football, Baseball, Basketball and Hockey. In general the sims are fairly accurate. But a couple of things are at play here.

1) I am using 1 coach for all 120+ teams. It would take way to much time to determine the way a coach calls a game. The sim is probably utilizing a Montana passing game much more than Delaney did...but we can see the results.

And 2nd...the depth is basically the same. The Montana roster is about 65 players as are the FBS rosters. My guess is that only players that got actual playing time are in the game.

And finally this is simply for fun. I know that some are enjoying it from PMs I get.

Stats will start posting tonight through tomorrow.

Griz travel to Amherst next week to play the UMass Minutemen
 
National Leaders - Grizzlies rankings

Passing
Jordy Johnson - 30th (78-130), 60%, 1041 yards, 9 tds, 2 interceptions, 102.1)

Interceptions
Bo Tully - tied for 4th (3 interceptions)
Goodwin - tied for 7th (2 interceptions)

Sacks
Wagenmann - tied for 2nd (6 sacks)

Tackles
Coyle - 3rd (with 30)
Harris- 5th (with 29)

Punt Returns
Ellis Henderson 15th (5-67, 13.4 yards)

Punting
Stephen Shaw 7th (46.1 avg)

Scoring
Jordan Canada 19th (5 tds, 3 rushing, 2 receiving, 30 pts)
 
TEAM Stats from Game

Code: 
                   Nev        Mon
First Downs         32         35
Rushes          38-261      31-66
Passes       39-22-227  54-29-435
Sacked             4-0        4-0
Fumble               1          2
Penalties       12-120       8-90
Turnovers            2          3
Missed Tackles       4         13
Time             26:08      33:52
Third Down        7-15      11-19
Fourth Down        0-1        0-0
Red Att/Td/Fg    6/3/1      4/3/1
Net Offense        488        501
 
SCORING/DRIVE Summary

Code: 
Washington Grizzly Stadium  Temp:62 Wind:5-15  Line:Mon by 17  MVP:Johnson 
                                                                                                    
                                 1   2   3   4       Tot                                            
2013 Nevada (1-2)               10   7  10   6        33
2013 Montana (3-0)               7  14   7  10        38
                                                                                                    
Scoring Summary                                                                                     
1 10:01  Nevada          FG Zuzo 28
1  7:09  Nevada          TD Fajardo 10 pass to Wimberly (Zuzo)
1  2:06  Montana         TD Canada 6 run (Worst)
2 11:36  Montana         TD Johnson 10 pass to Canada (Worst)
2  7:50  Montana         TD Johnson 32 pass to Henderson (Worst)
2  3:22  Nevada          TD Dobrich 49 yd fumble recovery (Zuzo)
3 13:05  Nevada          TD Jackson 7 run (Zuzo)
3  9:27  Montana         TD Nguyen 5 run (Worst)
3  2:01  Nevada          FG Zuzo 40
4 12:45  Montana         TD Johnson 37 pass to Henderson (Worst)
4  8:55  Montana         FG Worst 24
4  6:42  Nevada          TD Brock 4 run
                                                                                                    
Drive Summary                                                                                       
 1 Montana         Mon 21  3 plays   9 yards  2:03   Punt                                           
 1 Nevada          Nev 38  8 plays  52 yards  2:39   Field Goal, Nev 3 Mon 0
 1 Montana         Mon 19  3 plays  10 yards  0:51   Punt
 1 Nevada          Nev 27  7 plays  73 yards  1:49   Touchdown, Nev 10 Mon 0
 1 Montana         Mon 23 11 plays  77 yards  4:58   Touchdown, Nev 10 Mon 7
 1 Nevada          Nev 28  4 plays   6 yards  1:47   Punt
 1 Montana         Mon 29  9 plays  71 yards  3:25   Touchdown, Nev 10 Mon 14
 2 Montana         Nev 25  7 plays  80 yards  1:54   Touchdown, Nev 10 Mon 21
 2 Nevada          Nev 36  7 plays  44 yards  2:08   Missed Field Goal
 2 Montana         Mon 28  5 plays  20 yards  2:11   Touchdown, Nev 17 Mon 21
 2 Montana         Mon 28  8 plays  40 yards  2:18   Interception
 2 Nevada          Nev 20  5 plays  62 yards  0:57   End of half.
 3 Nevada          Nev 31  6 plays  69 yards  1:48   Touchdown, Nev 24 Mon 21
 3 Montana         Mon 30 11 plays  70 yards  3:31   Touchdown, Nev 24 Mon 28
 3 Nevada          Nev 12  3 plays   9 yards  1:19   Punt
 3 Montana         Mon 25  3 plays   8 yards  1:39   Punt
 3 Nevada          Nev 20 11 plays  58 yards  3:52   Field Goal, Nev 27 Mon 28
 3 Montana         Mon 20  3 plays   7 yards  1:00   Punt
 3 Nevada          Nev 14  8 plays  50 yards  1:38   Interception
 4 Montana         Mon 48  4 plays  52 yards  0:53   Touchdown, Nev 27 Mon 35
 4 Nevada          Nev 28  4 plays  11 yards  0:58   Interception
 4 Montana         Mon 27 10 plays  67 yards  2:41   Field Goal, Nev 27 Mon 38
 4 Nevada          Nev 35  8 plays  65 yards  2:05   Touchdown, Nev 33 Mon 38
 4 Montana         Mon 21  3 plays   6 yards  1:26   Fumble
 4 Nevada          Mon 27  6 plays  18 yards  1:47   Turnover on downs
 4 Montana         Mon 9  10 plays  56 yards  3:19   End of game
 
GRIZZLY GAME STATS

Code: 
Montana                                                 
Passing     Att Cmp Yds 25 In Td Sk  Rate               
Johnson,J    54  29 435  3  1  3  4  91.2               
                                                                                                    
Rushing     Att Yds  Avg FD 10 Lg TD                    
Canada        7  43  6.1  3  2 14  1                    
Nguyen        8  16  2.0  1  0  5  1                    
Van           8  15  1.9  1  0  6  0                    
Johnson,J     8  -8 -1.0  0  0  9  0                    
                                                                                                    
Receiving    No Dp Att Yds  Avg FD 25 Lg TD             
Jones         6  1  11  85 14.2  5  0 20  0             
Warren        5  1  11 102 20.4  4  1 41  0             
Henderson     5  3  12 111 22.2  5  2 37  2             
Nguyen        4  1   6  31  7.8  2  0  9  0             
Canada        3  0   3  33 11.0  2  0 13  1             
Naccarato     2  1   4  26 13.0  0  0 18  0             
Van           2  0   3  20 10.0  2  0 10  0             
Hagfors       1  0   1  15 15.0  1  0 15  0             
Haynes        1  0   1  12 12.0  1  0 12  0             
Saylor        0  0   1   0  0.0  0  0  0  0             
Wilson        0  1   1   0  0.0  0  0  0  0             
                                                                                                    
Fumbles        No Rec TD                                
Van             1   0  0                                
Johnson,J       1   0  0                                

Kick Returns   No Yds  Avg  Lg TD                       
Naccarato       4  65 16.3  22  0                       
Henderson       3  59 19.7  24  0                       
                                                                                                    
Punt Returns   No Fc Yds  Avg  Lg TD                    
Henderson       1  2  13 13.0  13  0                    
                                                                                                    
Kicking          Fg  Lg   Xp  Pts                       
Worst           1-1  24  5-5    8                       
                                                                                                    
Punting        No Yds  Avg Tb 20 Bk Lg                  
Shaw            4 187 46.8  0  0  0 52                  
                                                                                                    
Defense     Tkl Sk Def Stf Hur FF   INT                 
Harris,N     10  0   1   0   0  0   0-0                 
Hermanson    10  0   1   0   0  0   0-0                 
Goodwin       8  0   1   0   0  0  1-24                 
Tripp         7  0   1   0   0  0   0-0                 
Coyle         7  0   1   2   0  0   0-0                 
Holmes        3  1   0   1   2  1   0-0                 
Dennard       3  0   0   0   0  0   0-0                 
Kanongata'a   3  0   0   0   0  0   0-0                 
Crittenden    3  0   0   0   0  0   0-0                 
Wagenmann     2  2   0   0   4  0   0-0                 
Van Ackeren   2  0   0   0   0  0   0-0                 
Takai         1  1   0   0   3  0   0-0                 
Bienemann     1  0   0   0   2  0   0-0                 
Owen          1  0   0   0   0  0   0-0                 
Lippert       1  0   0   0   0  0   0-0                 
Johnson,R     1  0   0   0   0  0   0-0                 
Rehm          1  0   0   0   0  0   0-0                 
Kidder        1  0   0   0   0  0   0-0                 
Peevey        1  0   0   0   0  0   0-0                 
Whitted       1  0   0   0   0  0   0-0                 
Gamboa        1  0   0   0   0  0   0-0                 
Tully         0  0   0   0   0  0   1-0
 
Week 4 Schedule

Conference Games
(2-1) Fresno State @ San Diego State (1-1)
(2-1) Boise State @ North Dakota State (1-2)

Non Conference Games
(1-2) Cal-Davis @ Nevada (1-2)
(0-3) Southern Miss @ San Jose State (2-1)
(0-2) Central Michigan @ UNLV (1-2)
(0-3) New Mexico @ Pittsburgh (1-1)
(3-0) Colorado State @ #19 Alabama (2-0)
(2-0) Utah State @ #6 USC (3-0)
(2-1) Notre Dame @ Air Force (2-1)
(0-2) Northern Colorado @ Wyoming (2-1)
(3-0) Montana @ UMass (0-2)

Bye Weeks
Hawaii
 
POWER Rankings (Top 25 & MWC Schools)

Code: 
  1 Kansas St.           2-0       76.5      48.5
  2 Oregon               2-0       76.5      34.5
  3 Louisiana St.        3-0       76.3      24.0
  4 Stanford             2-0       75.0      39.5
  5 Michigan             3-0       74.0      24.0
  6 Southern Cal         3-0       73.7      24.7
  7 Baylor               1-0       73.0      51.0
  8 Illinois             1-1       72.5       5.0
  9 Auburn               3-0       72.0      28.7
 10 Missouri             1-0       72.0      21.0
 11 Ohio St.             3-0       70.7      29.3
 12 Miami, FL            2-0       70.5      14.5
 13 Georgia              2-0       70.5       8.0
 14 Texas A+M            1-1       69.5      21.0
 15 Florida St.          2-0       69.0      19.0
 16 Arizona St.          1-0       69.0       7.0
 17 Kentucky             2-1       67.7      13.3
 18 Brigham Young        2-0       67.5      13.5
 19 Alabama              2-0       67.0      22.5
 20 Georgia Tech         1-0       66.0      19.0
 21 Maryland             3-0       65.7      27.3
 22 Northwestern         2-1       65.7       6.7
 23 Arizona              2-0       65.5      21.0
 24 Michigan St.         2-0       64.5      30.5
 25 Penn St.             2-1       64.3      18.7
 
 47 Colorado St.         3-0       59.3      34.3
 58 Utah St.             2-0       56.5      26.5
 62 Montana              3-0       55.3      12.7
 66 Boise St.            2-1       54.0      10.3
 71 Wyoming              2-1       53.7       3.7
 72 Fresno St.           2-1       53.3       9.7
 75 San Jose St.         2-1       52.3       3.8
 79 San Diego St.        1-1       51.0       1.5
 82 Air Force            2-1       49.3      11.7
 88 North Dakota St      1-2       48.0       1.0
 92 Nevada               1-2       47.3      -3.3
 95 UNLV                 1-2       47.0       6.0
109 Hawaii               0-3       42.0     -24.3
122 New Mexico           0-3       37.7     -20.0

125 Massachusetts        0-2       36.0     -42.0

Tomorrow I'll post standings & Griz team stats through 3 games
 
NavyBlue said:
You must have alot of time on your hands..... :D
Click to expand...

Yes, at times. However, the sim plays all the games in about 3 minutes....what takes the longest is encoding the stats.


grizpack said:
I am completely lost. WTF is this???
Click to expand...

Replaying the 2013 Mountain West season but including Montana & North Dakota State to make it a 14 team conference. This is 3rd week, 2nd week is still on front page.

The sim program is called Action PC! football. It utilizes real stats and replays games as you set them up.
 
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