FCS STATS Poll Guesses (Sept 16)

The third week of the season is probably still too early … I like to get a better notion of how the “stable” of national pollsters does it. But with 12 of 25 ranked teams losing (yes, some to FBS opponents), I just could not resist the challenge.

Rank, School (Record), [Current Rank]
1 North DakotaState (2-0) [1]
2 James Madison (2-1) [2]
3 South Dakota State (2-0) [3]
4 North Carolina A&T (3-0) [4]
5 Kennesaw State (2-1) [7]
6 Weber State (2-1) [11]
7 Jacksonville State (1-1) [12]
8 Elon (1-1) [14]
9 Eastern Washington (2-1) [6]
10 Sam Houston State (1-1) [5]
11 Wofford (2-1) [8]
12 McNeese (3-0) [16]
13 Maine (2-0) [17]
14 Samford (1-2) [9]
15 Villanova (2-1) [10]
16 Cent Arkansas (2-1) [18]
17 Nicholls (1-2) [13]
18 Illinois State (2-0) [19]
19 Montana (2-1) [15]
20 Stony Brook (2-1) [24]
21 Austin Peay (2-1) [NR]
22 Delaware (2-1) [NR]
23 UC Davis (2-1) [23]
24 Rhode Island (2-1) [25]
25 South Dakota (1-2) [22]

NR Northern Arizona (1-2) [20]
NR Northern Iowa (0-2) [21]

(Comments in the next post.)

Some key points about my poll guesses, starting with teams that lost to FBS opponents:
EWU got pounded at Washington State, so they had to drop some. But WSU has a chance of being okay to pretty good this year, so I kept the Eags in the top-10. Similarly, Wofford held its own against Wyoming, and actually led until late in the 4th quarter. The same was true, more or less, in the Rhode Island game -- they were tied with UConn with just over 3 minutes left in the game. Still, sitting at #24, the Rhodies might drop out, but I think not (more on that in a bit). Then there was UC-Davis, which lost by “only” 20 points at Stanford, which was ranked #9 in the FBS polls. So I don’t see them dropping at all (and they’ll be part of my bottom-feeder discussion in a bit).

Northern Iowa, sitting at #21, was another matter. They lost by 24 points to unranked (FBS polls) Iowa, but that was only because they scored twice in the 4th quarter when the Hawkeyes played their bench. So I figure their 0-2 record will drop them out of the top-25.

Sitting at #22, South Dakota might be on thin ice and could drop out, since they lost by 17 points. But they were on the road against #11 Weber … and they also benefit from my bottom-feeder quandary.

I used my standard formula, more or less, for ranked teams that lost to unranked FCS opponents. That could have put the Griz at #19 or 20. However, with six ranked teams ahead of them also losing, I went with a guess of #19. I could have also gone with either #25 or dropped-out for NAU. But the ‘Jacks lost so badly, I figure they’ll be gone.

So with UNI and NAU dropping out, I needed two teams to move up into the the top-25. And that posed a problem, which was why I expect UC-Davis and Rhode Island (and South Dakota) to stay in the top-25. When I looked at who got high points in the last poll, the decision was pretty easy. Austin Peay went on the road and pummeled Morehead State, 78-40. Colgate didn’t play (game canceled), while New Hampshire won handily … so I figured the CAA team would move up. That was reinforced by the fact that the next two vote-getters, Yale and New Hampshire, lost.

So there you have it. That’s my story, and I’m sticking with it.

Pretty spot on. But do think we end up somewhere between 20-23.

first11 said:

Pretty spot on. But do think we end up somewhere between 20-23.

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Me too: 21 or 22.

'68griz said:

first11 said:

Pretty spot on. But do think we end up somewhere between 20-23.

Click to expand...

Me too: 21 or 22.

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Could be. Did not help that UNI got drubbed so badly -- although Iowa is a good team, even if they aren't currently ranked.

No comment on SHSU loss to UND?

Amazing number of hits ... considering that these are just "educated (hopefully) guesses.
(And we'll find out how well I did in about 14-15 hours. )

Glad I could offer you folks some good entertainment

GO GRIZ! :egriz:

I don’t really think most of the people voting do a lot of in depth analysis. In other words they see UM losing on the road to a MV team by 4 and that does not hurt UM much.

A lot of teams lost this week in the top 25 but UM’s loss will be looked at as a “good” loss. NAU on the other hand is going to get creamed because they lost to a MV team by nearly 40.

I agree with some that polls don’t matter early in the year. But perception makes a huge difference come playoff selection time.

So even though UM and msu are both 2-1, it is important that the pollsters have UM ranked much higher. It’s easier to stay up the list not so easy to climb the list

Paytonlives said:

I don’t really think most of the people voting do a lot of in depth analysis. In other words they see UM losing on the road to a MV team by 4 and that does not hurt UM much.

A lot of teams lost this week in the top 25 but UM’s loss will be looked at as a “good” loss. NAU on the other hand is going to get creamed because they lost to a MV team by nearly 40.

I agree with some that polls don’t matter early in the year. But perception makes a huge difference come playoff selection time.

So even though UM and msu are both 2-1, it is important that the pollsters have UM ranked much higher. It’s easier to stay up the list not so easy to climb the list

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Exactamundo!

STATS.com pollsters running late today. Too hard to figure with so many ranked teams losing?

Waiting with bated breath. Well ... not actually.