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Sac St - Match Up Nightmare

HookedonGriz

Well-known member
DONOR
My gut tells me many are chalking this Sac St game up as a easy win. Last time they came to Missoula, they were blown away by 50 pts. This is not that Sac St team.

Football is always a game of match ups and the match ups in this game favor Sac St on many levels.

- QB Kevin Thompson was recruited to UNLV and is a good passer and great runner. He will have some success exploiting our man coverage
- their O Line is very solid
- their D line is quite possibly the tops in the league
- their overall talent and speed matches or exceeds the Griz
- one of the better secondary units in the league
- seasoned coaches who turned this team into a 7–4 team last year
- they took some lumps for a few years but now are littered with 2-3 year veteran starters

We have some nightmare match ups in their D Line vs our O Line and their QB and speedster receivers vs our man coverage in secondary. Also a very seasoned and veteran team vs our youth.

Hold on kids this will not be an easy win and has me a bit worried.
 
Got a feeling it might get ugly.....in a bad way unless this week there were amazing improvements in multiple areas.
 
hilinegrizfan said:
they have never won a game here... and they won't on saturday. GoGriz

I hope you are right. I’ve talked to a few other Griz fans and gotten the impression that people think this one will be a cakewalk. I just don’t think it will
 
I have watched 2 of their games. If they play like what I saw the Griz win by 30. They are not very good.
 
HookedonGriz said:
My gut tells me many are chalking this Sac St game up as a easy win. Last time they came to Missoula, they were blown away by 50 pts. This is not that Sac St team.

Football is always a game of match ups and the match ups in this game favor Sac St on many levels.

- QB Kevin Thompson was recruited to UNLV and is a good passer and great runner. He will have some success exploiting our man coverage
- their O Line is very solid
- their D line is quite possibly the tops in the league
- their overall talent and speed matches or exceeds the Griz
- one of the better secondary units in the league
- seasoned coaches who turned this team into a 7–4 team last year
- they took some lumps for a few years but now are littered with 2-3 year veteran starters

We have some nightmare match ups in their D Line vs our O Line and their QB and speedster receivers vs our man coverage in secondary. Also a very seasoned and veteran team vs our youth.

Hold on kids this will not be an easy win and has me a bit worried.

Been saying this al season. Another team that is a matchup nightmare is UC Davis, two games I was worried about the most at the start of the season.
 
coachkenelty said:
So what you are saying is we don’t have a chance and UNC is really good!

Griz always have a chance, especially at home. San Diego St needed 15 4th quarter pts to put them away and only won 28-14
 
Paytonlives said:
I have watched 2 of their games. If they play like what I saw the Griz win by 30. They are not very good.

Defense is not great I will give you that. Their O line is better than MT's. They have fast Receivers and an accurate QB. They arguably have a better offense than the team that just beat MT. This could become a shootout. With that said I don't think the Griz will lose at home but I do believe Sac St will make it interesting.
 
HookedonGriz said:
coachkenelty said:
So what you are saying is we don’t have a chance and UNC is really good!

Griz always have a chance, especially at home. San Diego St needed 15 4th quarter pts to put them away and only won 28-14

And San Diego State beat Arizona State 28-21, and had a pretty good showing against #7 Stanford. Yes the comparisons don't mean a lot but Sac State is going to be a tough out.
 
I would have laughed at this post at half-time of UNI game.

Griz had a identity then. Defense could cover and tackle, no run game,but Sneed was a dual threat, JLM put fear in opposing team.

Since then nothing consistent. Inconsistent in scoring and inconsistent defense.

The only two things that have been consistent has been poor O-line play and D-line play (as per no QB pressure)

Coaching change, young team, several transfers in starting positions, and unreliable trenches. Cherry on top...gave up punt return for TD and turnovers.

Sac. St. experienced QB, balanced offense and they don’t turn the ball over.
Add a QB that can run the QBs Griz have played so far are big pocket passers...Defense could not get pocket passers jerseys dirty, what are they going to do with a mobile QB?

Griz interior D-line are immovable and immobile. Stout against the run and no push on pass plays.

LBs solid, secondary all over the place. To start this season there was a popping and snapping of offensive players when defense was tackling, as secondary has been torched the hits mellowed.

Return to dominance has been reverting to what the hell happened.

Lee isn’t reliable on swing passes due to his compact body. Lee is the best RB to run in trenches, but needs more than 3-5 touches. Eastwood great in space long arms and good reciever, terrible in the trenches.
 
Diesel said:
I would have laughed at this post at half-time of UNI game.

Griz had a identity then. Defense could cover and tackle, no run game,but Sneed was a dual threat, JLM put fear in opposing team.

Since then nothing consistent. Inconsistent in scoring and inconsistent defense.

The only two things that have been consistent has been poor O-line play and D-line play (as per no QB pressure)

Coaching change, young team, several transfers in starting positions, and unreliable trenches. Cherry on top...gave up punt return for TD and turnovers.

Sac. St. experienced QB, balanced offense and they don’t turn the ball over.
Add a QB that can run the QBs Griz have played so far are big pocket passers...Defense could not get pocket passers jerseys dirty, what are they going to do with a mobile QB?

Griz interior D-line are immovable and immobile. Stout against the run and no push on pass plays.

LBs solid, secondary all over the place. To start this season there was a popping and snapping of offensive players when defense was tackling, as secondary has been torched the hits mellowed.

Return to dominance has been reverting to what the hell happened.

Lee isn’t reliable on swing passes due to his compact body. Lee is the best RB to run in trenches, but needs more than 3-5 touches. Eastwood great in space long arms and good reciever, terrible in the trenches.

Good post. I share a lot of the same worries. This team has a long ways to go.
 
Areas of concern also include penalties about 80 yards per game with 7 first downs given up by penalties.

Time of possession has been a wash, red zone TDs for opponents 5-7 71% compared to 8-15 53% for Griz
Griz D is also giving up 4-5 on fourth down conversions compared to 1-5 for Griz

Stats across the board give no indication of dominance. Maybe conference play and being at home will reflect improvement in these areas.
 
HookedonGriz said:
My gut tells me many are chalking this Sac St game up as a easy win. Last time they came to Missoula, they were blown away by 50 pts. This is not that Sac St team.

Football is always a game of match ups and the match ups in this game favor Sac St on many levels.

- QB Kevin Thompson was recruited to UNLV and is a good passer and great runner. He will have some success exploiting our man coverage
- their O Line is very solid
- their D line is quite possibly the tops in the league
- their overall talent and speed matches or exceeds the Griz
- one of the better secondary units in the league
- seasoned coaches who turned this team into a 7–4 team last year
- they took some lumps for a few years but now are littered with 2-3 year veteran starters

We have some nightmare match ups in their D Line vs our O Line and their QB and speedster receivers vs our man coverage in secondary. Also a very seasoned and veteran team vs our youth.

Hold on kids this will not be an easy win and has me a bit worried.

their line is okay. probably talent level of drake but less experienced.
Their D line is decent but not as good as either WIU or UNI.
They have WR speed...lucky that's also what our defense's best attribute.
Their secondary is decent talent wise but communication has not looked great (same problem their coach had here)

Overall their run game is what I think keeps them in games. They don't look good when they can't run the ball. So far, our run D has been pretty good due to our superior linebacker play. They have not shown ability to maintain drives.

UNCO: They had 1 drive vs UNCO for 8 plays, 1 for 7(didn't score) and 1 for 6. all the rest were less than 5 plays. 3 of the 4 scoring drives started inside UNCO territory. They gave up 26 First Downs to UNCO. Gave up 50% 3rd downs and converted 38%. UNCO ran 90 plays on them. One RB had 4 carries and 2 fumbles lost. Their top DL has 7 tackles on the year. 4.5 of those are sacks tho. most their tackling is done by DBs. WR's don't catch the ball a lot but when they do they are long plays. most receptions on the team is 9.

SDSU: I know people will say: They played SDSU tough. No SDSU played themselves tough. Sac had 10 first downs. 33% 3rd down conversion. 230 yards of total offense. SDSU threw 2 Ints in the redzone and sacked 2 times to take them out of FG range on 3rd down. SDSU just played awful. Still racked up 430 total offense. Killed themselves with 8 penalties but held the ball for 36 minutes of the game.

When you go back and watch them play so far this year, they are just so inconsistent. They make a 40 yard run and then stuffed for 3 plays. They throw 5 of 6 on a drive for a TD. Next drive they go 3 and out with 2 sacks. When they get in the redzone they score...no doubt about it. However, when they have a field to go. 60+ yards... they have a hard time keeping things together that long. Yes I think they have a lot of pure talent on that team. I think they have all the issues past griz teams have had. Inconsistent offense. Poor Defensive communication. They have not turned the ball over much this year besides one poor RB. They don't throw interceptions because a lot of their passes are overthrown deep. Streak routes, posts and such will be the main routes to watch. Safety communication will need to improve. I imagine we see a fair amount of cover 2 playing Sac, trying to get help over the top. Sac does not throw down much to the RBs so we should see CBs trailing WRs and forcing good passes. They do have a few TEs they throw the ball too every now and then. LBs and safeties will take most of those duties you presume with the 4-2-5. I see us bringing a LOT of LB blitz to stop the run and to put pressure on the QB. Sac likes developed routes and if we can cause the QB to check out of those or throw early we might be able to get a TO or two. Once again the D needs to just contain this Offense as they don't put together long through drives.

On offense we need to just get in rythem. timing routes will be essential. I liked when we used motion the last game we had more luck running up the middle. drawing ends and LBs eyes to the WR in motion caused some room for our struggling line to get a push. When the LBs and ends didn't cheat out Sneed and JLM had some room on the corners to take the ball and get the edge. look for more of this I would imagine. We also saw some new routes from the WRs last game. We ran 2 zig routes that were wide open but sneed over shot them. Both had the edge if the throw was on time. Sneed also missed a few longer passes where we need to give our WRs a shot to make the play. I think we will find ourselves moving the ball vs Sac and I am hoping some running game will continue to develop this weekend.

At the end of the day I think we will see a similar situation to last week. Sac might hit a few big plays but majority of the game our defense should lock them down pretty well. I think we find ourselves up 10-17 in the 4th quarter and we will see if we can make the right decisions and finish this one out, unlike last week. I see the griz coming home strong in this one winning by 10+ atleast. After watching Sac film... I would say 31-17 Griz.
 
AZGrizFan said:
Nice post, kb. Thanks for the breakdown.

I am no BW but just a few insights I saw. I don't think I agree that they are a matchup nightmare by any means. They are better than Sac State of old however.
 
mtgrizfankb said:
HookedonGriz said:
My gut tells me many are chalking this Sac St game up as a easy win. Last time they came to Missoula, they were blown away by 50 pts. This is not that Sac St team.

Football is always a game of match ups and the match ups in this game favor Sac St on many levels.

- QB Kevin Thompson was recruited to UNLV and is a good passer and great runner. He will have some success exploiting our man coverage
- their O Line is very solid
- their D line is quite possibly the tops in the league
- their overall talent and speed matches or exceeds the Griz
- one of the better secondary units in the league
- seasoned coaches who turned this team into a 7–4 team last year
- they took some lumps for a few years but now are littered with 2-3 year veteran starters

We have some nightmare match ups in their D Line vs our O Line and their QB and speedster receivers vs our man coverage in secondary. Also a very seasoned and veteran team vs our youth.

Hold on kids this will not be an easy win and has me a bit worried.

their line is okay. probably talent level of drake but less experienced.
Their D line is decent but not as good as either WIU or UNI.
They have WR speed...lucky that's also what our defense's best attribute.
Their secondary is decent talent wise but communication has not looked great (same problem their coach had here)

Overall their run game is what I think keeps them in games. They don't look good when they can't run the ball. So far, our run D has been pretty good due to our superior linebacker play. They have not shown ability to maintain drives.

UNCO: They had 1 drive vs UNCO for 8 plays, 1 for 7(didn't score) and 1 for 6. all the rest were less than 5 plays. 3 of the 4 scoring drives started inside UNCO territory. They gave up 26 First Downs to UNCO. Gave up 50% 3rd downs and converted 38%. UNCO ran 90 plays on them. One RB had 4 carries and 2 fumbles lost. Their top DL has 7 tackles on the year. 4.5 of those are sacks tho. most their tackling is done by DBs. WR's don't catch the ball a lot but when they do they are long plays. most receptions on the team is 9.

SDSU: I know people will say: They played SDSU tough. No SDSU played themselves tough. Sac had 10 first downs. 33% 3rd down conversion. 230 yards of total offense. SDSU threw 2 Ints in the redzone and sacked 2 times to take them out of FG range on 3rd down. SDSU just played awful. Still racked up 430 total offense. Killed themselves with 8 penalties but held the ball for 36 minutes of the game.

When you go back and watch them play so far this year, they are just so inconsistent. They make a 40 yard run and then stuffed for 3 plays. They throw 5 of 6 on a drive for a TD. Next drive they go 3 and out with 2 sacks. When they get in the redzone they score...no doubt about it. However, when they have a field to go. 60+ yards... they have a hard time keeping things together that long. Yes I think they have a lot of pure talent on that team. I think they have all the issues past griz teams have had. Inconsistent offense. Poor Defensive communication. They have not turned the ball over much this year besides one poor RB. They don't throw interceptions because a lot of their passes are overthrown deep. Streak routes, posts and such will be the main routes to watch. Safety communication will need to improve. I imagine we see a fair amount of cover 2 playing Sac, trying to get help over the top. Sac does not throw down much to the RBs so we should see CBs trailing WRs and forcing good passes. They do have a few TEs they throw the ball too every now and then. LBs and safeties will take most of those duties you presume with the 4-2-5. I see us bringing a LOT of LB blitz to stop the run and to put pressure on the QB. Sac likes developed routes and if we can cause the QB to check out of those or throw early we might be able to get a TO or two. Once again the D needs to just contain this Offense as they don't put together long through drives.

On offense we need to just get in rythem. timing routes will be essential. I liked when we used motion the last game we had more luck running up the middle. drawing ends and LBs eyes to the WR in motion caused some room for our struggling line to get a push. When the LBs and ends didn't cheat out Sneed and JLM had some room on the corners to take the ball and get the edge. look for more of this I would imagine. We also saw some new routes from the WRs last game. We ran 2 zig routes that were wide open but sneed over shot them. Both had the edge if the throw was on time. Sneed also missed a few longer passes where we need to give our WRs a shot to make the play. I think we will find ourselves moving the ball vs Sac and I am hoping some running game will continue to develop this weekend.

At the end of the day I think we will see a similar situation to last week. Sac might hit a few big plays but majority of the game our defense should lock them down pretty well. I think we find ourselves up 10-17 in the 4th quarter and we will see if we can make the right decisions and finish this one out, unlike last week. I see the griz coming home strong in this one winning by 10+ atleast. After watching Sac film... I would say 31-17 Griz.

Very good and fair post. I could see all of that as well. My biggest point in creating this thread was the 4-5 convos I had with pretty knowledgeable Griz fans, them feeling it would be a 35-40 point blowout. I’d be shocked if that happened. I think Sac St will be in this game the entire time.
 
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