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Unbalanced BSC Schedule -- Winners and Losers

IdaGriz01

Well-known member
I decided to give this its own thread, rather than burying it on a thread that’s been all over the place. And, since no one seemed to have worked out the winners and losers in the upcoming schedule, I spent some time on it. Specifically, I wondered who might be “contenders” based on particularly favorable schedules. Turns out, three “known” contenders have the edge in terms of schedule.

That starts with Eastern Washington. None of their conference opponents won more than 6 games last year. They do not play Weber State (10-3 last year), UC-Davis (10-2), or Montana State (8-5). Four of their conference opponents won a combined total of 12 games last year … and they get three of those at home. Their toughest game will likely be on the road at WaGriz. 


Next up is Montana State. Only one of their upcoming opponents won more that 6 games last year. They do have to play at UC-Davis, but do not face Weber State or Eastern Washington (12-3). They get to play the Griz at home, so that’s a plus. And, finally, the four worst of their opponents won a combined total of 9 games last year … and, like EWU, the bob-kitties get three of those at home.

Weber State also has a good draw. Like MSU, only one of their opponents won more than 6 games last year. They have to play at UC-Davis, but do not face Montana State or Eastern Washington. Their four worst opponents won a combined total of 11 games last year, and they get two of those at home.

The “surprise”contender might be Idaho. Once again, only one of their opponents won more than 6 games last year. They get Weber State (10-3) at home, and do not play EWU or UC-Davis. They do have to go on the road to play the Griz. But they’re at home for their next two best opponents (ISU and Cal Poly).

Who has it bad, due to the schedule? The Griz, for one. They play all five of the best Big Sky teams from last year: WSU (10-3), EWU (12-3), UC-Davis (10-2), ISU (6-5, but 5-3 in conference), and MSU (8-5). About the only consolation is that three of those five have to come to WaGriz. The Griz better be ready to play their best with that schedule (which we already knew).

Still, spare a bit of pity for Sacramento State, which has it even worse. They’re coming off a terrible year, have a brand new coach … and face arguably the toughest schedule in the Big Sky. Like the Griz, they play all five of the toughest teams from last year. But where the Griz get two of their weaker opponents at home, the Hornets face three of their four weakest opponents (possible wins, however unlikely) on the road. Ouch.
 
Well it wont help Idaho. Lol

So it’ll be EWU, WSU, MSU and then Montana fighting the rest of the conference for the 4th playoff spot. Great.
 
AZGrizFan said:
Well it wont help Idaho. Lol

So it’ll be EWU, WSU, MSU and then Montana fighting the rest of the conference for the 4th playoff spot. Great.
Yep. With the Vandals seemingly on a downward trend, I do not see their (somewhat) favorable schedule being that much help to them.

And, barring something totally crazy (always possible), EWU should pretty much waltz through the season to the championship. After that ... Who knows?

I almost think the Griz need to win every home game. If they could also manage a split on the road, they'd be in great shape. But a home sweep, given the opponents, is not something we can really count on. Nor is a road split a given, with visits to Oregon and UC-Davis on the schedule.
 
IdaGriz01 said:
stilwtrgrizz said:
Are you sure that Weber State does not have to face Weber State?? :?
Only in practice. :oops: :oops: :oops:

(Not sure how that happened, but I've fixed it.)

Yes you have, reads a lot better now. Sorry , but I just COULDN'T resist. :thumb:
 
stilwtrgrizz said:
IdaGriz01 said:
stilwtrgrizz said:
Are you sure that Weber State does not have to face Weber State?? :?
Only in practice. :oops: :oops: :oops:

(Not sure how that happened, but I've fixed it.)
Yes you have, reads a lot better now. Sorry , but I just COULDN'T resist. :thumb:
Who could? (Resist, I mean.)

Thanks for catching that so quick, so I could fix it.
 
AZGrizFan said:
Well it wont help Idaho. Lol

So it’ll be EWU, WSU, MSU and then Montana fighting the rest of the conference for the 4th playoff spot. Great.
Let’s not forget about UC Davis. They have the weapons in place to play for the NC.

I’ve thought about the schedule a lot this offseason. I have it separated into 4 tiers.

Tier 1- for sure losses: Oregon
Tier 2- on the fence: Weber, Eastern, UC Davis, msu. I’ve always thought that if we ate least split these 4 games and don’t do anything stupid, we’re in the playoffs and may get a favorable draw. Eastern will be down because of graduation and I’m not high on Weber either. I don’t think Constantine has that it factor.
Tier 3- win as long as we don’t do anything stupid. ISU, Monmouth, USD, PSU. These are teams that we should beat but could be tricky. As long as we don’t do what we did against PSU last year, we should win these games.
Tier 4- for sure wins. Idaho, SAC, N. Alabama

Every year there’s 1 team that gets into the playoffs with 5 losses and this year I think that could be the Griz this year.
 
It is a dilemma, closely tied to the "bring back the WAC" thread and trends toward the territory of be careful what you ask for. For example we know that the current unbalanced schedule of the BSC does favor good teams with the easier schedules. But that doesn't mean that the years when average or below average teams like Idaho with easier schedules this year reap many benefits. You are what you are. With potential additions like Central Washington an Dixie State some inherent unfairness will only be exacerbated unless there are divisions which may or may not be any better. At this point it would seem there would have to be a conference championship between division winners to get the one guaranteed BSC playoff bid but I don't know if that would even be possible with the timing the way it is.

But the rub is that going to two conferences would certainly take away a an available FCS at-large playoff bid and send it to the second conference. So any thought about a 4th playoff spot is almost certainly gone and very possibly a second depending on how well the second place team in the "WAC" is ranked. So I"m not really sure that would help or hurt the Griz. And I don't believe anyone should even count on a 4th playoff spot in the BSC - only one is guaranteed, two likely, three probable.

A lot of this comes down to how much you believe in RTD. To me they are just letters in the alphabet until proven. Personally I don't see how Hauck's last 2 recruiting classes move us up or down the pecking order but one can never rule out the hope that good coaching can develop talent. I realize that for many of you disagreeing with RTD or Hauck means certain evisceration on this Forum but so be it. Until things change, and I don't see it this year with EWU, WSU, MSU and UC Davis all in the mix, it really doesn't matter too much whether a unbalanced, too big BSC or two conferences exist. Where the Griz end up for the foreseeable future it isn't likely to be at the top of either scenario.
 
Griz til I die said:
AZGrizFan said:
Well it wont help Idaho. Lol

So it’ll be EWU, WSU, MSU and then Montana fighting the rest of the conference for the 4th playoff spot. Great.
Let’s not forget about UC Davis. They have the weapons in place to play for the NC.

I’ve thought about the schedule a lot this offseason. I have it separated into 4 tiers.

Tier 1- for sure losses: Oregon
Tier 2- on the fence: Weber, Eastern, UC Davis, msu. I’ve always thought that if we ate least split these 4 games and don’t do anything stupid, we’re in the playoffs and may get a favorable draw. Eastern will be down because of graduation and I’m not high on Weber either. I don’t think Constantine has that it factor.
Tier 3- win as long as we don’t do anything stupid. ISU, Monmouth, USD, PSU. These are teams that we should beat but could be tricky. As long as we don’t do what we did against PSU last year, we should win these games.
Tier 4- for sure wins. Idaho, SAC, N. Alabama

Every year there’s 1 team that gets into the playoffs with 5 losses and this year I think that could be the Griz this year.

Not sure why you think EWU will be down this year. The Eagles are as good or better at every position

QB EWU
RB EWU
OL EWU
WR Maybe a wash
TE EWU
DL EWU
LB Wash
Safety Wash
CB Wash
Coach Wash based on Haucks past. EWU recently with the job Best did last year.
Special Teams Wash
Intangibles EWU


Griz at home make this a good game but I wouldn't count Eastern out for another run at the national championship along with Cal Davis and a hand full of other teams.
 
IdaGriz01 said:
stilwtrgrizz said:
IdaGriz01 said:
stilwtrgrizz said:
Are you sure that Weber State does not have to face Weber State?? :?
Only in practice. :oops: :oops: :oops:

(Not sure how that happened, but I've fixed it.)
Yes you have, reads a lot better now. Sorry , but I just COULDN'T resist. :thumb:
Who could? (Resist, I mean.)

Thanks for catching that so quick, so I could fix it.

No problem, my pleasure.
 
bitterrootobserver said:
Griz til I die said:
AZGrizFan said:
Well it wont help Idaho. Lol

So it’ll be EWU, WSU, MSU and then Montana fighting the rest of the conference for the 4th playoff spot. Great.
Let’s not forget about UC Davis. They have the weapons in place to play for the NC.

I’ve thought about the schedule a lot this offseason. I have it separated into 4 tiers.

Tier 1- for sure losses: Oregon
Tier 2- on the fence: Weber, Eastern, UC Davis, msu. I’ve always thought that if we ate least split these 4 games and don’t do anything stupid, we’re in the playoffs and may get a favorable draw. Eastern will be down because of graduation and I’m not high on Weber either. I don’t think Constantine has that it factor.
Tier 3- win as long as we don’t do anything stupid. ISU, Monmouth, USD, PSU. These are teams that we should beat but could be tricky. As long as we don’t do what we did against PSU last year, we should win these games.
Tier 4- for sure wins. Idaho, SAC, N. Alabama

Every year there’s 1 team that gets into the playoffs with 5 losses and this year I think that could be the Griz this year.

Not sure why you think EWU will be down this year. The Eagles are as good or better at every position

QB EWU
RB EWU
OL EWU
WR Maybe a wash
TE EWU
DL EWU
LB Wash
Safety Wash
CB Wash
Coach Wash based on Haucks past. EWU recently with the job Best did last year.
Special Teams Wash
Intangibles EWU


Griz at home make this a good game but I wouldn't count Eastern out for another run at the national championship along with Cal Davis and a hand full of other teams.
I never said they wouldn’t be good, I just don’t think they’ll be as good as last year. If you’d like to know why I think that, here’s why:

In total, Eastern lost 27 seniors and a lot of them were significant, including:
Nsimba Webster WR
Nzuzi Webster DB
Gage Gubrud QB (I know. Barriere is just as good)
Terence Grady WR
Sam McPherson RB
Roldan Alcobendas K (6th year senior)
Ketner Kupp LB
Connor Baumann DL
Zach Eagle WR
Jay-Tee Tiuli DL

In total Eastern lost
6 DB’s
4 WR’s
1 QB
1 RB
1 K
2 LB’s
5 DL
5 Ol
1 LS

that’s a lot. Especially up front. And they got a tough schedule to open up the season. At Washington and at Jacksonville State, as well as having to go to the Griz. They’ll be challenged but they should get back to the playoffs.
 
EWU lost a lot of players, but they still have a special QB to reload around. Unless we’re talking catastrophic injuries, they’ll be in the mix for everything when the time comes.
 
Griz need some big bodies on Defense and hopefully some drop downs. One or two on the Oline would not hurt as well. Their schedule is a beast and they need to stay healthy to have any chance. I wish I was more confident about this year, but I think 7-5 is a very solid performance.
 
Unbalanced schedule??? Probably the most balanced I've ever seen.

away game
home game
away game
home game
away game
home game
away game
home game
away game
home game
home game
away game


And also, 6 games then a bye and then 6 more games. ;)
 
Griz til I die said:
AZGrizFan said:
Well it wont help Idaho. Lol

So it’ll be EWU, WSU, MSU and then Montana fighting the rest of the conference for the 4th playoff spot. Great.
Let’s not forget about UC Davis. They have the weapons in place to play for the NC.

I’ve thought about the schedule a lot this offseason. I have it separated into 4 tiers.

Tier 1- for sure losses: Oregon
Tier 2- on the fence: Weber, Eastern, UC Davis, msu. I’ve always thought that if we ate least split these 4 games and don’t do anything stupid, we’re in the playoffs and may get a favorable draw. Eastern will be down because of graduation and I’m not high on Weber either. I don’t think Constantine has that it factor.
Tier 3- win as long as we don’t do anything stupid. ISU, Monmouth, USD, PSU. These are teams that we should beat but could be tricky. As long as we don’t do what we did against PSU last year, we should win these games.
Tier 4- for sure wins. Idaho, SAC, N. Alabama

Every year there’s 1 team that gets into the playoffs with 5 losses and this year I think that could be the Griz this year.

I would consider moving South Dakota up to Tier 2. Season openers on the road can be tough to predict even though they aren’t a great MVFC team. Also, with the 12 game schedule, 8 may be the benchmark for playoffs, with a few teams at 7 wins getting in (not exactly sure the past breakdown during 12-game seasons). I would be very excited for an 8-4 record this season, but it won’t be handed to the Griz.
 
Griz til I die said:
bitterrootobserver said:
Griz til I die said:
AZGrizFan said:
Well it wont help Idaho. Lol

So it’ll be EWU, WSU, MSU and then Montana fighting the rest of the conference for the 4th playoff spot. Great.
Let’s not forget about UC Davis. They have the weapons in place to play for the NC.

I’ve thought about the schedule a lot this offseason. I have it separated into 4 tiers.

Tier 1- for sure losses: Oregon
Tier 2- on the fence: Weber, Eastern, UC Davis, msu. I’ve always thought that if we ate least split these 4 games and don’t do anything stupid, we’re in the playoffs and may get a favorable draw. Eastern will be down because of graduation and I’m not high on Weber either. I don’t think Constantine has that it factor.
Tier 3- win as long as we don’t do anything stupid. ISU, Monmouth, USD, PSU. These are teams that we should beat but could be tricky. As long as we don’t do what we did against PSU last year, we should win these games.
Tier 4- for sure wins. Idaho, SAC, N. Alabama

Every year there’s 1 team that gets into the playoffs with 5 losses and this year I think that could be the Griz this year.

Not sure why you think EWU will be down this year. The Eagles are as good or better at every position

QB EWU
RB EWU
OL EWU
WR Maybe a wash
TE EWU
DL EWU
LB Wash
Safety Wash
CB Wash
Coach Wash based on Haucks past. EWU recently with the job Best did last year.
Special Teams Wash
Intangibles EWU


Griz at home make this a good game but I wouldn't count Eastern out for another run at the national championship along with Cal Davis and a hand full of other teams.
I never said they wouldn’t be good, I just don’t think they’ll be as good as last year. If you’d like to know why I think that, here’s why:

In total, Eastern lost 27 seniors and a lot of them were significant, including:
Nsimba Webster WR
Nzuzi Webster DB
Gage Gubrud QB (I know. Barriere is just as good)
Terence Grady WR
Sam McPherson RB
Roldan Alcobendas K (6th year senior)
Ketner Kupp LB
Connor Baumann DL
Zach Eagle WR
Jay-Tee Tiuli DL

In total Eastern lost
6 DB’s
4 WR’s
1 QB
1 RB
1 K
2 LB’s
5 DL
5 Ol
1 LS

that’s a lot. Especially up front. And they got a tough schedule to open up the season. At Washington and at Jacksonville State, as well as having to go to the Griz. They’ll be challenged but they should get back to the playoffs.

Eastern has some absolute studs filling it at receiver, biggest concern will be replacing the Secondary. Eastern will be loaded on offense this year...should be a great matchup in Missoula.
 
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