The Griz are on a roll and Wa Griz will feature the biggest FCS games of the week as #3 Weber State comes to town to face off against the #5 Montana Grizzlies. Both teams are on a roll and have the Big Sky title, and a top 4 seed in their sites if they can win out. The winner of this game has the inside track to all of that – and the stage is huge.
Weber State is on a near-run like the late-2000’s Griz have been under Jay Hill. They’ve not lost to an FCS team this year. They’ve only lost 4 in-conference games in the last 4 seasons, and obviously none this year. They’ve been to the semi-finals 2 years ago and the quarter finals last year. Despite some perceived shortcomings this team just continues to win with a tough defense and a dominant run-based offense.
The last time the Griz beat Weber State? 2012. Although to be fair, these two teams haven’t met much recently. Weber beat Montana at home in 2015 early in the season, and then beat Montana in Ogden in 2017.
Interestingly enough too both teams have two star players on offense that are an unknown for this game. Josh Davis left the game last week for Weber, while as we all know Sammy Akem got hurt for us against Idaho.
Weber State Wildcats 8-2
0-6 loss @ San Diego State: Not a lot of offense in this game. SDSU had about 240 total yards while Weber had 154 total. The teams were a combined 8-35 on 3rd down. The score could have gone a little more in favor of SDSU though, Weber crossed mid-field once, and turned it over on downs. While SDSU had 3 trips into the Weber side of the field that resulted in either a turnover on downs, or a lost fumble, or the end of the game.
42-24 win vs Cal Poly: Weber just gradually pulled away from CPSLO. Weber had 275 rushing yards and held the potent Poly run game to just 164, while forcing two turnovers as well. Weber held the ball for nearly 22:00 of the final 30:00 of the game.
13-19 loss @ Nevada: Weber was up 10-9 at the half but then their offense went terribly stale with 6 of their last 7 possessions ending in punts, and just a handful of first downs total. While Nevada didn’t fare too much better they did enough to get the lead and hold on. It was a rough day in the office for the Weber offense, 62 rushing, 63 passing. While Nevada had 300 through the air. Nevada really hurt themselves int his game too, losing 3 turnovers.
29-17 win vs Northern Iowa: I think this was a game a lot of us followed, Weber stormed out to a 27-3 lead in the first half, and added a safety in the 2nd half to get to 29. UNI was able to get a little bit rolling, but not enough in the 2nd half. UNI out-gained Weber by about 100 yards total in the game. Per my math the Weber offense had -2 (yes, negative) yards in the 2nd half.
41-35 win at Idaho: Posted about this one in the Idaho report, it was a game where Weber would hold a 2 score lead, Idaho would get within 1 score, and Weber would respond to push it back to a 2 score. Idaho returned a kickoff for a TD with 1:00 to go in the game to set the final score. 35 points in the most Weber has allowed this season. Idaho had a balanced game, just about 200 rushing and 200 passing while Weber had yet another big day on the ground, 225 rushing.
29-14 win vs Southern Utah: Weber was a little sluggish to start, it was tied 7-7 at the half. But they got in gear later on, scoring 3 touchdowns (with a missed PAT and a failed 2 point attempt). SUU had 305 through the air and just 68 rushing, while Weber had 200 rushing and 140 passing. Why couldn’t SUU hang around in this game? 4 lost interceptions.
51-28 win vs Northern Arizona: Weber’s offense came alive and as the game went on they were unstoppable. This box score looks like a typical Montana game this year, Weber was down 21-14 at the half, and then would go on to out-score NAU 37-7 in the 2nd half. Weber had 440 yards RUSHING on the worst rush defense in the Big Sky, while NAU did have some success in the air, 359 passing.
36-20 win at UC Davis: In a game where I believe Weber was marked as the under dog they bucked their prior trend of giving up big passing days and held Davis to just 160 passing, while Weber passed for almost 285 themselves. Davis lost 3 turnovers and Weber held the ball for a whopping 42:00 minutes of clock time.
36-17 win at Sacramento State: While the Griz couldn’t come into Northern California and steal two wins, Weber sure could. Kevin Thompson got knocked out of the game, but at that point Weber was holding a 2-score lead anyways. It was a balanced game for Weber, 195 rushing, 177 passing and they held Sac to just 84 yards on the ground. It was another game where Weber had the ball by a large margin and forced 2 more turnovers on their opponent.
30-27 win vs North Dakota: Weber scored 10 points in essentially the last 2:50 of the game to win it, after Weber tied the game up they kicked off, and UND fumbled the ball, Weber recovers… and kicks the game winner shortly after. UND showed what’s probably needed to be in the game with Weber, they didn’t allow Weber to dominate TOP (Weber about 32:00 of TOP), UND was +2 on the game as well, and they had 299 yards passing.
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General Stats
Passing yards per game Montana (175 for WEB vs 303 for UM)
Rushing yards per game WEB (188 for WEB vs 163 for UM)
Total offense Montana (363 for WEB vs 466 for UM)
Passing yards allowed per game WEB (244 for WEB vs 296 for UM)
Rushing yards allowed per game WEB (111 for WEB vs 117 for UM)
Total defense WEB (355 for WEB vs 413 for UM)
Big roll for Weber, picking up 4 to Montana’s 2. (corrected)
Offense points scored Montana (30.6 for WEB vs 38.2 for UM)
Defense points allowed WEB (20.7 for WEB vs 24.2 for UM)
Turnover margin WEB – (+13 for WEB / +4 for Montana)
Fieldgoal % WEB (86% for WEB vs 75% for UM)
Punt Returns Montana (11.5 yards for WEB vs 16.2 yards for UM)
Kick Returns Montana (21.3 yards for WEB vs 22.5 yards for UM)
T.O.P. WEB (33:26 for WEB vs 30:14 for UM)
Red Zone defense (touchdowns) WEB (38% WEB / 62% UM)
Red Zone offense (touchdowns) Montana (65% WEB / 66% UM)
3rd down offense Montana – (38% for WEB / 48% for UM)
3rd down defense WEB – (32% allowed for WEB vs 34% allowed for UM)
Montana adds 5 while Weber adds 6, this puts Weber with 10 to Montana’s 7. Lots of staggering advantages for Weber, including their massive +13 turnover margin (they’ve recovered 13 fumbles and only lost 3 – plus have 3 more picks forced than lost).
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Players to Watch:
#20 Josh Davis, RB: The 5-9, 195 pound running back was last years freshman of the year in the conference. While his status is a little unknown, (think I saw he’s planning to play thru an injury) he’s leading Weber with 901 rushing yards and 9 rushing TDs, he’s also 4th in total receptions on the team, but just has 94 yards to go with that. He’s also a fairly dangerous kick returner, 31 yards per return average.
#27 Kris Jackson, RB: This guy is a load, he’s 5-10, 235 and is built for this type of offense. While his total yardage on the year isn’t massive at 364 yards, he does have 10 rushing TDs. Watch for this guy on short-yardage plays and goal-line plays.
#4 Kevin Smith Jr, RB: Smith will play in the stead of Davis if he’s limited and will rotate a lot in as well anyways. He’s got 504 rushing yards and 2 TDs this season so far. He’s coming off a 100 yard game against UND.
#8 Jake Constantine, QB: Constantine actually splits time with #11 Kaden Jenks a bit, but he’s the primary starter. He has missed a few games to injury so far but he’s presumably the main guy at QB. He’s averaging about 182 yards per game and has 7 TDs to 6 INTs (Jenks is averaging about 94 yards per game and has 4 TDs to 1 INT). He’s not much of a rushing threat but does have 1 rushing TD.
#3 Devin Cooley, WR: Weber’s Jeff Cotton, this guy gets the most looks, he’s got 503 yards and 2 TDs this season. He’s 6-1, 185
#22 Rashid Shaeed, WR: A guy to keep an eye on, their main returner who’s missed a handful of games with injuries. He’s got 3 receiving TDs, the most of any WR on the team. His numbers alone on punts are solid, an average of 16.8 yards per return. He’s even got a rushing TD as well.
#13 Noah Vaea, LB: Currently leading the team in tackles with 59, he’s got 5 TFLs and has both forced and recovered one fumble.
#94 Jonah Williams, DE: A 1st team all conference pick he’s got 43 tackles so far this season, and has 8.5 TFLs, 6.5 sacks, and 2 forced fumbles + 1 recovery. Dude’s a beast.
#7 Preson Smith, S: 58 tackles and 5.5 TFLs so far… and 3 forced fumbles! The Griz will need to really protect the ball around these guys.
#53 Austin Tesch, LB: Another 1st team all conference guy, he’s got just 39 tackles this year, but 6 TFLs, 1 sack, and a few defended passes.
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Keys to a Grizzly Victory
1. Positive turnover margin. Weber thrives on errors. If Montana has 3 turnovers in the 1st quarter again this week they’ll be dead in the water, that’s how Weber makes teams pay. We’ve seen some fumble issues of late from Knight, that can’t happen. The Griz will need to force Constantine into some errors on the other side too – and have to turn those errors into points.
2. Don’t get buried in TOP. Weber will probably win the TOP battle, but the Griz cannot let them get 35 or more minutes or else that plays right into Weber’s hands of how they win games.
3. Control the line of scrimmage. This is a tall order because I believe that Weber is better on both sides here. The Grizzly O-line has to have it’s best game yet and the Grizzly D-line cannot get shoved around. Weber wins by grinding it out and they have 3 backs to do that with. If Montana is caught trying to play catch-up in the 4th with Weber running the ball… game over for the Griz.
4. Force 3rd and medium / 3rd and long, put the game on Constantine. No one’s been able to do that this year… and no FCS team has beat Weber… can the Griz flip that script?
5. Air it out. Wish we had Sammy for this game… damnit. Weber’s defense is stout but have shown some issues with the pass game. This will be the game where it all needs to come together for the passing offense. We’ll need complete games from the full slate of guys, not just 1 or 2.
6. Flip the red zone stats. Another easier said than done. Weber is amazing on defense when teams get into the RZ. By forcing feildgoals they don’t allow teams to separate from them. If the Griz can make most all RZ trips turn into touchdowns… they’ll be in awesome shape.
7. Show who has the better punt return and coverage units, and take a kickoff to paydirt. Weber and Montana have effectively the 1st and 2nd best net punting and average punt return units. The team that can better flip the field could really have the advantage. Oddly though, Weber’s kick coverage unit has some issues, while everyone’s kicking away from Flowers… we need him to get the ball and get into the end zone.
8. Keep Sneed clean. Weber as a team is tied (with MSU) for the 3rd highest amount of sacks in the conference. The Griz are winding down facing off against some of the best pass-rushing D-lines in the conference. Sac has the most at 38, PSU 2nd at 28, MSU and Weber at 27.
9. Get back on track on 3rd down. While it’s still been ok, the Griz need to get back to their prior ways converting 3rd downs. Keeping Weber’s grind-out offense off the field is so vital in this game.
10. Rotate the defense a lot. Weber thrives on wearing down defenses. It’s time to flex the depth we have in the front 6/7 guys.
11. The Griz will need their absolute most complete game of the season to win. All facets of execution need to be at perfection. Bobby says we want to play our best football in November… it’s November, let’s go.
12. Wa Griz needs to be PACKED, it needs to be CRAZY, and it needs to be there the whole way. Weber’s offense is one that can take a crowd out of a game. Don’t let them wear down the fans too.
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I think Weber holds so many advantages here that they should come away with a win. They have the right design and have shown they can be a little dangerous in other aspects of their offense that they can do enough to disrupt the Griz. They might be unphased by the crowd, while they did play in front of 40,000 at SDSU, I’d guess that was a ho-hum crowd, Nevada had less people at their game than the Cats usually have… so yeah. They could force a few turnovers, that have come up more and more for Montana of late, and they aren’t the type of team to give up leads.
However, I have a feeling about this game that I can’t shake. Montana is on a roll and guys all over are getting better each week and impacting the game like we’d not seen earlier. The crowd should be insane, the stakes will be huge but this team is in a spot it’s not been in before – it’s not backs to the wall… but rather focus on what you do best and damnit execute and get it done. These guys are in a different space than we’ve seen Griz teams in maybe almost 8 years, and I think they’ll do something special with it. The chess-match of Hauck vs Hill will be incredible, but I like our QBs, our WRs, and our defensive front better. I think when the time comes to make a play, it will happen. This will set the tone for a playoff run and it’ll happen in front of our eyes. I’ll say the Griz pull it off, in one of the most memorable games in years, 31-28.
GO GRIZ!!
Weber State is on a near-run like the late-2000’s Griz have been under Jay Hill. They’ve not lost to an FCS team this year. They’ve only lost 4 in-conference games in the last 4 seasons, and obviously none this year. They’ve been to the semi-finals 2 years ago and the quarter finals last year. Despite some perceived shortcomings this team just continues to win with a tough defense and a dominant run-based offense.
The last time the Griz beat Weber State? 2012. Although to be fair, these two teams haven’t met much recently. Weber beat Montana at home in 2015 early in the season, and then beat Montana in Ogden in 2017.
Interestingly enough too both teams have two star players on offense that are an unknown for this game. Josh Davis left the game last week for Weber, while as we all know Sammy Akem got hurt for us against Idaho.
Weber State Wildcats 8-2
0-6 loss @ San Diego State: Not a lot of offense in this game. SDSU had about 240 total yards while Weber had 154 total. The teams were a combined 8-35 on 3rd down. The score could have gone a little more in favor of SDSU though, Weber crossed mid-field once, and turned it over on downs. While SDSU had 3 trips into the Weber side of the field that resulted in either a turnover on downs, or a lost fumble, or the end of the game.
42-24 win vs Cal Poly: Weber just gradually pulled away from CPSLO. Weber had 275 rushing yards and held the potent Poly run game to just 164, while forcing two turnovers as well. Weber held the ball for nearly 22:00 of the final 30:00 of the game.
13-19 loss @ Nevada: Weber was up 10-9 at the half but then their offense went terribly stale with 6 of their last 7 possessions ending in punts, and just a handful of first downs total. While Nevada didn’t fare too much better they did enough to get the lead and hold on. It was a rough day in the office for the Weber offense, 62 rushing, 63 passing. While Nevada had 300 through the air. Nevada really hurt themselves int his game too, losing 3 turnovers.
29-17 win vs Northern Iowa: I think this was a game a lot of us followed, Weber stormed out to a 27-3 lead in the first half, and added a safety in the 2nd half to get to 29. UNI was able to get a little bit rolling, but not enough in the 2nd half. UNI out-gained Weber by about 100 yards total in the game. Per my math the Weber offense had -2 (yes, negative) yards in the 2nd half.
41-35 win at Idaho: Posted about this one in the Idaho report, it was a game where Weber would hold a 2 score lead, Idaho would get within 1 score, and Weber would respond to push it back to a 2 score. Idaho returned a kickoff for a TD with 1:00 to go in the game to set the final score. 35 points in the most Weber has allowed this season. Idaho had a balanced game, just about 200 rushing and 200 passing while Weber had yet another big day on the ground, 225 rushing.
29-14 win vs Southern Utah: Weber was a little sluggish to start, it was tied 7-7 at the half. But they got in gear later on, scoring 3 touchdowns (with a missed PAT and a failed 2 point attempt). SUU had 305 through the air and just 68 rushing, while Weber had 200 rushing and 140 passing. Why couldn’t SUU hang around in this game? 4 lost interceptions.
51-28 win vs Northern Arizona: Weber’s offense came alive and as the game went on they were unstoppable. This box score looks like a typical Montana game this year, Weber was down 21-14 at the half, and then would go on to out-score NAU 37-7 in the 2nd half. Weber had 440 yards RUSHING on the worst rush defense in the Big Sky, while NAU did have some success in the air, 359 passing.
36-20 win at UC Davis: In a game where I believe Weber was marked as the under dog they bucked their prior trend of giving up big passing days and held Davis to just 160 passing, while Weber passed for almost 285 themselves. Davis lost 3 turnovers and Weber held the ball for a whopping 42:00 minutes of clock time.
36-17 win at Sacramento State: While the Griz couldn’t come into Northern California and steal two wins, Weber sure could. Kevin Thompson got knocked out of the game, but at that point Weber was holding a 2-score lead anyways. It was a balanced game for Weber, 195 rushing, 177 passing and they held Sac to just 84 yards on the ground. It was another game where Weber had the ball by a large margin and forced 2 more turnovers on their opponent.
30-27 win vs North Dakota: Weber scored 10 points in essentially the last 2:50 of the game to win it, after Weber tied the game up they kicked off, and UND fumbled the ball, Weber recovers… and kicks the game winner shortly after. UND showed what’s probably needed to be in the game with Weber, they didn’t allow Weber to dominate TOP (Weber about 32:00 of TOP), UND was +2 on the game as well, and they had 299 yards passing.
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General Stats
Passing yards per game Montana (175 for WEB vs 303 for UM)
Rushing yards per game WEB (188 for WEB vs 163 for UM)
Total offense Montana (363 for WEB vs 466 for UM)
Passing yards allowed per game WEB (244 for WEB vs 296 for UM)
Rushing yards allowed per game WEB (111 for WEB vs 117 for UM)
Total defense WEB (355 for WEB vs 413 for UM)
Big roll for Weber, picking up 4 to Montana’s 2. (corrected)
Offense points scored Montana (30.6 for WEB vs 38.2 for UM)
Defense points allowed WEB (20.7 for WEB vs 24.2 for UM)
Turnover margin WEB – (+13 for WEB / +4 for Montana)
Fieldgoal % WEB (86% for WEB vs 75% for UM)
Punt Returns Montana (11.5 yards for WEB vs 16.2 yards for UM)
Kick Returns Montana (21.3 yards for WEB vs 22.5 yards for UM)
T.O.P. WEB (33:26 for WEB vs 30:14 for UM)
Red Zone defense (touchdowns) WEB (38% WEB / 62% UM)
Red Zone offense (touchdowns) Montana (65% WEB / 66% UM)
3rd down offense Montana – (38% for WEB / 48% for UM)
3rd down defense WEB – (32% allowed for WEB vs 34% allowed for UM)
Montana adds 5 while Weber adds 6, this puts Weber with 10 to Montana’s 7. Lots of staggering advantages for Weber, including their massive +13 turnover margin (they’ve recovered 13 fumbles and only lost 3 – plus have 3 more picks forced than lost).
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Players to Watch:
#20 Josh Davis, RB: The 5-9, 195 pound running back was last years freshman of the year in the conference. While his status is a little unknown, (think I saw he’s planning to play thru an injury) he’s leading Weber with 901 rushing yards and 9 rushing TDs, he’s also 4th in total receptions on the team, but just has 94 yards to go with that. He’s also a fairly dangerous kick returner, 31 yards per return average.
#27 Kris Jackson, RB: This guy is a load, he’s 5-10, 235 and is built for this type of offense. While his total yardage on the year isn’t massive at 364 yards, he does have 10 rushing TDs. Watch for this guy on short-yardage plays and goal-line plays.
#4 Kevin Smith Jr, RB: Smith will play in the stead of Davis if he’s limited and will rotate a lot in as well anyways. He’s got 504 rushing yards and 2 TDs this season so far. He’s coming off a 100 yard game against UND.
#8 Jake Constantine, QB: Constantine actually splits time with #11 Kaden Jenks a bit, but he’s the primary starter. He has missed a few games to injury so far but he’s presumably the main guy at QB. He’s averaging about 182 yards per game and has 7 TDs to 6 INTs (Jenks is averaging about 94 yards per game and has 4 TDs to 1 INT). He’s not much of a rushing threat but does have 1 rushing TD.
#3 Devin Cooley, WR: Weber’s Jeff Cotton, this guy gets the most looks, he’s got 503 yards and 2 TDs this season. He’s 6-1, 185
#22 Rashid Shaeed, WR: A guy to keep an eye on, their main returner who’s missed a handful of games with injuries. He’s got 3 receiving TDs, the most of any WR on the team. His numbers alone on punts are solid, an average of 16.8 yards per return. He’s even got a rushing TD as well.
#13 Noah Vaea, LB: Currently leading the team in tackles with 59, he’s got 5 TFLs and has both forced and recovered one fumble.
#94 Jonah Williams, DE: A 1st team all conference pick he’s got 43 tackles so far this season, and has 8.5 TFLs, 6.5 sacks, and 2 forced fumbles + 1 recovery. Dude’s a beast.
#7 Preson Smith, S: 58 tackles and 5.5 TFLs so far… and 3 forced fumbles! The Griz will need to really protect the ball around these guys.
#53 Austin Tesch, LB: Another 1st team all conference guy, he’s got just 39 tackles this year, but 6 TFLs, 1 sack, and a few defended passes.
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Keys to a Grizzly Victory
1. Positive turnover margin. Weber thrives on errors. If Montana has 3 turnovers in the 1st quarter again this week they’ll be dead in the water, that’s how Weber makes teams pay. We’ve seen some fumble issues of late from Knight, that can’t happen. The Griz will need to force Constantine into some errors on the other side too – and have to turn those errors into points.
2. Don’t get buried in TOP. Weber will probably win the TOP battle, but the Griz cannot let them get 35 or more minutes or else that plays right into Weber’s hands of how they win games.
3. Control the line of scrimmage. This is a tall order because I believe that Weber is better on both sides here. The Grizzly O-line has to have it’s best game yet and the Grizzly D-line cannot get shoved around. Weber wins by grinding it out and they have 3 backs to do that with. If Montana is caught trying to play catch-up in the 4th with Weber running the ball… game over for the Griz.
4. Force 3rd and medium / 3rd and long, put the game on Constantine. No one’s been able to do that this year… and no FCS team has beat Weber… can the Griz flip that script?
5. Air it out. Wish we had Sammy for this game… damnit. Weber’s defense is stout but have shown some issues with the pass game. This will be the game where it all needs to come together for the passing offense. We’ll need complete games from the full slate of guys, not just 1 or 2.
6. Flip the red zone stats. Another easier said than done. Weber is amazing on defense when teams get into the RZ. By forcing feildgoals they don’t allow teams to separate from them. If the Griz can make most all RZ trips turn into touchdowns… they’ll be in awesome shape.
7. Show who has the better punt return and coverage units, and take a kickoff to paydirt. Weber and Montana have effectively the 1st and 2nd best net punting and average punt return units. The team that can better flip the field could really have the advantage. Oddly though, Weber’s kick coverage unit has some issues, while everyone’s kicking away from Flowers… we need him to get the ball and get into the end zone.
8. Keep Sneed clean. Weber as a team is tied (with MSU) for the 3rd highest amount of sacks in the conference. The Griz are winding down facing off against some of the best pass-rushing D-lines in the conference. Sac has the most at 38, PSU 2nd at 28, MSU and Weber at 27.
9. Get back on track on 3rd down. While it’s still been ok, the Griz need to get back to their prior ways converting 3rd downs. Keeping Weber’s grind-out offense off the field is so vital in this game.
10. Rotate the defense a lot. Weber thrives on wearing down defenses. It’s time to flex the depth we have in the front 6/7 guys.
11. The Griz will need their absolute most complete game of the season to win. All facets of execution need to be at perfection. Bobby says we want to play our best football in November… it’s November, let’s go.
12. Wa Griz needs to be PACKED, it needs to be CRAZY, and it needs to be there the whole way. Weber’s offense is one that can take a crowd out of a game. Don’t let them wear down the fans too.
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I think Weber holds so many advantages here that they should come away with a win. They have the right design and have shown they can be a little dangerous in other aspects of their offense that they can do enough to disrupt the Griz. They might be unphased by the crowd, while they did play in front of 40,000 at SDSU, I’d guess that was a ho-hum crowd, Nevada had less people at their game than the Cats usually have… so yeah. They could force a few turnovers, that have come up more and more for Montana of late, and they aren’t the type of team to give up leads.
However, I have a feeling about this game that I can’t shake. Montana is on a roll and guys all over are getting better each week and impacting the game like we’d not seen earlier. The crowd should be insane, the stakes will be huge but this team is in a spot it’s not been in before – it’s not backs to the wall… but rather focus on what you do best and damnit execute and get it done. These guys are in a different space than we’ve seen Griz teams in maybe almost 8 years, and I think they’ll do something special with it. The chess-match of Hauck vs Hill will be incredible, but I like our QBs, our WRs, and our defensive front better. I think when the time comes to make a play, it will happen. This will set the tone for a playoff run and it’ll happen in front of our eyes. I’ll say the Griz pull it off, in one of the most memorable games in years, 31-28.
GO GRIZ!!
