How Hard is it to beat a team twice in a football year?

I noticed many people on here saying that it is incredibly difficult to beat the same team twice in one year. Others said it wasn't necessarily difficult but that the odds favor the loser of the regular season game. I wanted to see just how difficult it was or whether this claim was right (Spoiler Alert - it's not). So, I went through the P5 conferences and looked at rematches in the conference championship game between teams that had previously met that year. I did this for all years that a conference has had an official championship game. I then looked at any rematch including non P5 and bowl games to see if that gave any info. Below are the results:

ACC (since 2005):

2007 - VT over BC (BC won regular season game)

2008 - VT over BC (BC won regular season game)

2009 - GT over Clemson (GT won regular season game)*

2011 - Clemson over VT (Clemson won regular season game)

Regular season winner was 2-2

*now vacated but still included in results

Big 10 (since 2011):

2011 - Wisconsin over MSU (MSU won regular season game)

2012 - Wisconsin over Nebraska (Nebraska won regular season game)

Regular season winner was 0-2

Big 12 (1996-2010, 2017):

1999 - Nebraska over UT (UT won regular season game)

2000 - OU over KSU (OU won regular season game)

2001 - Colorado over UT (UT won regular season game)

2002 - OU over Colorado (OU won regular season game)

2005 - UT over Colorado (UT won regular season game)

2007 - OU over Mizzou (OU won regular season game)

2017 - OU over TCU (OU won regular season game)

Regular season winner was 5-2

Pac 12 (since 2011):

2012 - Stanford over UCLA (Stanford won regular season game)

2013 - Stanford over ASU (Stanford won regular season game)

2014 - Oregon over UofA (UofA won regular season game)

2015 - Stanford over USC (Stanford won regular season game)

2017 - USC over Stanford (USC won regular season game)

Regular season winner was 4-1

SEC (since 1992):

1999 - Bama over Florida (Bama won regular season game)

2000 - Florida over Auburn (Florida won regular season game)

2001 - LSU over Tenn (Tenn won regular season game)

2003 - LSU over UGA (LSU won regular season game)

2004 - Auburn over Tenn (Auburn won regular season game)

2010 - Auburn over South Carolina (Auburn won regular season game)

2017 - UGA over Auburn (Auburn won regular season game)

Regular season winner was 5-2

P5 conference championship rematches are 16-9 in favor of the regular season winner

Non P5:

1999 MAC - Marshal over Western Michigan (Marshall won regular season)

2000 MAC - Marshall over Western Michigan (W Mich won regular season)

2003 MAC - Miami (OH) over Bowling Green (Miami won regular season)

2004 MAC - Toledo over Miami (OH) (Miami won regular season)

2005 MAC - Akron over NIU (Akron won regular season)

2006 C-USA - Houston over So Miss (So Miss won regular season)

2007 C-USA - UCF over Tulsa (UCF won regular season)

2012 C-USA - Tulsa over UCF (Tulsa won regular season)

2014 MWC - Boise St over Fresno St (Boise St won regular season)

2016 C-USA - WKU over La Tech (La Tech won regular season)

2016 MWC - SDSU over Wyoming (Wyoming won regular season)

2017 AAC - UCF over Memphis (UCF won regular season)

2017 C-USA - FAU over UNT (FAU won regular season)

2017 MAC - Toledo over Akron (Toledo won regular season)

2017 MWC - Boise St over Fresno St (Fresno St won regular season)

Regular season winner was 9-6

If you include non P5 conferences, the record is 25-15 in favor of the regular season winner. Most places online show 23-14 so I am assuming they don't include the now vacated win by GT, and maybe some of the more recent games?

For bowl games, the winner of the regular season match is only 7-15. I'd venture to guess that the amount of prep time you get before a bowl versus a conference championship game probably accounts for some of this difference.

That being said, overall the winner of a regular season game is 32-30 in the rematch that same year. Essentially a coin flip, but the odds improve when it is a conference championship game.

This year UCF, Washington, Boise State, Appalachian State, Middle Tennessee State, and Texas will try and win their rematches against Memphis, Utah, Fresno State, Louisiana Lafayette, UAB, and OU, respectively.

So now when someone says "it's really hard to beat the same team twice in one season" you can roll your eyes and laugh.

So many independent factors to really know. Even all the data you posted really means nothing.

I would say that it is difficult to beat a team as good as Weber twice....just because Weber is a really good football team. On that single day however...none of the percentages matter. Whichever team is better that day is all that matters.

grizindabox said:

So many independent factors to really know. Even all the data you posted really means nothing.

Click to expand...

His data actually shows that the term "it's hard to beat a team twice in a football year" means nothing.

Memphis just beat Cincinnati for the second time in two weeks and they were fairly evenly matched teams.

Interesting data.
Thx for posting

The data posted clearly indicates that it's twice as easy to beat a team twice as it is to beat them once.

ranco said:

grizindabox said:

So many independent factors to really know. Even all the data you posted really means nothing.

Click to expand...

His data actually shows that the term "it's hard to beat a team twice in a football year" means nothing.

Click to expand...

And my point is you can't even use his data to conclude if it is difficult or not. You would get better info by investigating every yearly match up individually as opposed to grouping them together in an attempt to determine how difficult it is to beat a team twice. I agree with Badlands that playing a very good team would make it difficult to win twice, but even then there are so many independent factors that can have an impact.

Winning is hard, losing is easy.

Wonder about where the game is played, home/away/neutral site. If the game on Friday was at WaGriz, I would be a lot more confident.

Hauck is 6-6 or 5-5 cant remember
anyways he has split all games when the teams have played twice.
Hope that trend changes this year!

ranco said:

grizindabox said:

So many independent factors to really know. Even all the data you posted really means nothing.

Click to expand...

His data actually shows that the term "it's hard to beat a team twice in a football year" means nothing.

Click to expand...

"Hard to beat" is not the same as impossible to beat. When you have two good teams that are good enough to meet in the post-season there will be some variables, but that doesn't mean the previous winner is likely to lose.

grizindabox said:

ranco said:

grizindabox said:

So many independent factors to really know. Even all the data you posted really means nothing.

Click to expand...

His data actually shows that the term "it's hard to beat a team twice in a football year" means nothing.

Click to expand...

And my point is you can't even use his data to conclude if it is difficult or not. You would get better info by investigating every yearly match up individually as opposed to grouping them together in an attempt to determine how difficult it is to beat a team twice. I agree with Badlands that playing a very good team would make it difficult to win twice, but even then there are so many independent factors that can have an impact.

Click to expand...

Not sure what would convince you one way or the other then.

First, I would totally discount bowl game rematches. The stakes there simply cannot compare to a conference championship title, and you have no idea how well-matched the two teams might be at that point in the season.

On the other hand, a conference championship is for high stakes and does pair off two "very good teams" -- presumably the two best in that conference. I'd say a 25-15 edge in favor of the regular season winner is a reasonable sample size, and makes the "old wives tale" pretty much a non-starter. (FWIW: The comparable statement in basketball -- "it's hard to beat a team three times in the same season" -- has been exhaustively proven to be incorrect.)

Mavman said:

Hauck is 6-6 or 5-5 cant remember
anyways he has split all games when the teams have played twice.
Hope that trend changes this year!

Click to expand...

hes going to do one of those things.

I felt when the brackets were released that I'd rather by in MSU's shoes and having a shot at redemption at Sac State (who IMO had been sliding in November) versus UM's having to go on the road against a Weber team hungry for revenge and who is also 17-2 in their last 19 in Ogden. This was also determined with Cat/Griz fresh in my mind, Griz clearly rebounded from that.

If you had the choice, which boat would you rather be in? On the road on a revenge tour, or on the road with the home team having revenge on their mind?

The only reason teams would play twice in a year is if they're both good (conference championships, playoffs, bowl games). So yes beating a team twice is difficult.

Thanks for the data. We now see while difficult it is not especially unlikely.

CatzWillRise said:

I felt when the brackets were released that I'd rather by in MSU's shoes and having a shot at redemption at Sac State (who IMO had been sliding in November) versus UM's having to go on the road against a Weber team hungry for revenge and who is also 17-2 in their last 19 in Ogden. This was also determined with Cat/Griz fresh in my mind, Griz clearly rebounded from that.

If you had the choice, which boat would you rather be in? On the road on a revenge tour, or on the road with the home team having revenge on their mind?

Click to expand...

Weber is always far tougher at home. Montana is always far tougher at home. So I think the location of this game is good for a 14 point swing (rather than the +3 or -3 advantage) from the first go round. So I'd really like to see this one played in Missoula. Though given your choice I'd guess I'd rather our guys were on a mission (see what I did there...) going into their house.

Should be a great game. Go Griz! :ugeek:

It still shouldn’t be said if it can’t be shown to be true either.

Playoffs are different, Weber with home field advantage is a big advantage. The Hill will have team frothed up, their fans are already foaming as per the video. Saw replay of Kennesaw game, Weber D played lights out in second half, offense was dismal. They were 1/7 in third down conv. at one point. Weber pick six and unforced fumble return for TD was over half their points.
I like the Griz seniors and Weber is beatable.