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How Will the Coronavirus Impact the Economy?

AllWeatherFan

AllWeatherFan

Well-known member
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The stock market is rallying today, but, as we all know, the market and the economy are two different beasts.

I’m no economist, but I think we’re in for some tough economic times. A depression? Perhaps. But certainly a major recession. With interest rates at zero, a mountain of debt and a several trillion dollar stimulus package somewhere on the horizon (payments perpetually promised “in a few weeks”), I think the federal government is dangerously low on ammunition.

What do you say? Will we see a V-shaped sharp economic bounce-back, or will we flatline?
 
We're the only country in the world that can simply fire up the printing presses and print more money to distribute. I think we'll see many aspects of society as we know it get a great update such as education. I recall the University of Phoenix had 475,000 students in 2010. Why the hell does Montana need 425 independent school districts and all the administrators and teachers in those podunk schools when online instruction could serve the same purpose, especially administratively. Maybe we'll see more drive-in food service rather than sit-in places. Even more family oriented businesses and family run businesses. I can think of many service industry jobs that are going to be retooled for certain and hopefully the travel industry monopolized by a few hotel and motel chains will give rise to a larger role of portable national recreation such as the r.v. industry.

As I recall this economy had grown by some 22 million jobs of which half were lost in the first two weeks of the pandemic designation. We're living through a significant historical event and five years from this date we'll have a great assessment of the performance of those in the arena. Right now, it's kind of like all we can do is read the Seattle, L.A., New York Times, Denver Post, Atlanta Journal-Constitution, WSJ, San Francisco Chronicle, Sacramento Bee and the Lee Montana papers and recall what Samuel Clemons said: "If you don't read the newspapers, you're uninformed; if you read the newpapers, you're misinformed." All I know is when this is over a lot will be changed except the federal government will shed a few dead weight agencies and all their bureaucrats.
 
Regarding education....why does Montana need mt western, mt northern, eastern mt, msu, uof mpntana.....the cost of administrators, maintenance etc is ridiculous in higher education....msu and u of montana are plenty for a state with a million total people in it....tax base will never support or make sense of this imo...we also have cars that go 85 mph and interstates these days...
 
krammer said:
Regarding education....why does Montana need mt western, mt northern, eastern mt, msu, uof mpntana.....the cost of administrators, maintenance etc is ridiculous in higher education....msu and u of montana are plenty for a state with a million total people in it....tax base will never support or make sense of this imo...we also have cars that go 85 mph and interstates these days...
Click to expand...

I wanted to include the bloated MUS schools but then I realized it would hurt the feelings of some of those puffed shirts who frequent this site...I suspect there are those such as me who pissed thousands of dollars away so they could state they have a M.Ed, Ed.S. and an Ed.D or Ph.D. or any other useless title that allows them to perform replication studies of those select few actual research institution's studies who will choose to argue the relevance of our pillars of academic excellence, but, you're correct. We have a bloated school system of which I've been part of the problem for more years than I care to admit. Consolidation needs to happen and our schools need to join the 21st Century.
 
Montana only should have UM and MSU for higher education. The other schools should be converted to Junior Colleges or closed. Harsh, yes, but necessary.
Regarding school districts, possibly test regional districts with a goal of eliminating school districts in every little town.
 
Spanky2 said:
Montana only should have UM and MSU for higher education. The other schools should be converted to Junior Colleges or closed. Harsh, yes, but necessary.
Regarding school districts, possibly test regional districts with a goal of eliminating school districts in every little town.
Click to expand...

I’m not sayin y’all might be on the right track but Huntsville Al has almost as many colleges as all of Montana, high teens in Hsvl to 21 in Montana.
 
Spanky2 said:
Montana only should have UM and MSU for higher education. The other schools should be converted to Junior Colleges or closed. Harsh, yes, but necessary.
Regarding school districts, possibly test regional districts with a goal of eliminating school districts in every little town.
Click to expand...

Concur. How many regional central offices would you suggest? It is my contention OPI could manage all the funding for the individual schools to include all federal programs and grants with a separate LEA designation within the close supervision of the SEA. All those tiny little schools could share administrators and critical shortage designated teaching and support such as psychs, counselors, speech therapists, OTs, nurses, etc.

This state consolidates for athletics but not academics? Of course consolidation would eliminate the need for the MTSBA and all the regional union reps and then that would eliminate the need for Montana School Law, School Finance and negotiation classes at both MSU and UM...
 
Thousands and thousands of small businesses have/will fail, never to return. Small businesses employ 49% of Americans.....many of those people are going to be looking for jobs that do NOT exist for the foreseeable future.
Millions and millions of individuals have filed/will file for unemployment....predicted to rise to 10.5%-40%
Trillions of dollars of loans are being deferred, kicking the proverbial delinquency/foreclosure can down the road to god knows what the latter half of the year.
We’re predicting record charge-offs (I’m now in banking) this year and into next year. When the mortgage deferrals expire everyone will be expected to bring their loans current ALL AT ONCE. Try that little ditty on for size...
Expect Phase II and III of multi-trillion stimulus packages (funded by all y’all who pay taxes) in a government-esque attempt to buy our way out of a depression.
Fed has used up almost all their bullets and will largely sit this out out unless they want to go negative on their interest rates.
 
"Mortgage industry on the brink of collapse

The mortgage market is on the brink of collapse as thousands of borrowers suddenly pour into the government bailout without any proof of any hardship."

The banks/lenders/servicers need cash. They still have to pay bondholders holding mortgage-backed securities. It sounds like borrowers don't have to show any hardship, just ask for deferral of payments. Probably a mistake in the legislation or regulation. It wasn't like this under similar programs in 2008, I don't think.

[Some had predicted 2 million forbearances. Now people are saying 25 million forbearances. A smaller piece of the mortgage market is apparently getting support in this area.]

Read in CNBC: https://apple.news/AYJDr3m93SC2nVLvxrHXHBQ
 
AZGrizFan said:
Thousands and thousands of small businesses have/will fail, never to return. Small businesses employ 49% of Americans.....many of those people are going to be looking for jobs that do NOT exist for the foreseeable future.
Millions and millions of individuals have filed/will file for unemployment....predicted to rise to 10.5%-40%
Trillions of dollars of loans are being deferred, kicking the proverbial delinquency/foreclosure can down the road to god knows what the latter half of the year.
We’re predicting record charge-offs (I’m now in banking) this year and into next year. When the mortgage deferrals expire everyone will be expected to bring their loans current ALL AT ONCE. Try that little ditty on for size...
Expect Phase II and III of multi-trillion stimulus packages (funded by all y’all who pay taxes) in a government-esque attempt to buy our way out of a depression.
Fed has used up almost all their bullets and will largely sit this out out unless they want to go negative on their interest rates.
Click to expand...
Spot on. The economic ramifications are going to be so much worse than this virus. The longer we’re shut down the worse it’s gonna get.
 
ilovethecats said:
AZGrizFan said:
Thousands and thousands of small businesses have/will fail, never to return. Small businesses employ 49% of Americans.....many of those people are going to be looking for jobs that do NOT exist for the foreseeable future.
Millions and millions of individuals have filed/will file for unemployment....predicted to rise to 10.5%-40%
Trillions of dollars of loans are being deferred, kicking the proverbial delinquency/foreclosure can down the road to god knows what the latter half of the year.
We’re predicting record charge-offs (I’m now in banking) this year and into next year. When the mortgage deferrals expire everyone will be expected to bring their loans current ALL AT ONCE. Try that little ditty on for size...
Expect Phase II and III of multi-trillion stimulus packages (funded by all y’all who pay taxes) in a government-esque attempt to buy our way out of a depression.
Fed has used up almost all their bullets and will largely sit this out out unless they want to go negative on their interest rates.
Click to expand...
Spot on. The economic ramifications are going to be so much worse than this virus. The longer we’re shut down the worse it’s gonna get.
Click to expand...

I"m afraid AZ may be right, or pretty close.
 
It's somewhat of a coincidence that I just dug out my old book Utopia by Sir Thomas More a couple of months ago and have been looking at all the notes in the margins of it-- I used the same book in a few economics classes that the profs all required during the Cold War.

Then I read this today and the same lessons those profs back then stressed showed up. Interesting.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/09/opinion/coronvairus-economy-history.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage
 
PlayerRep said:
ilovethecats said:
Spot on. The economic ramifications are going to be so much worse than this virus. The longer we’re shut down the worse it’s gonna get.
Click to expand...

I"m afraid AZ may be right, or pretty close.
Click to expand...

The economy and the human impacts of the virus are not mutually exclusive. The economic ramifications may be worse (than those of the virus) only because of the direction we took to contain the disease. The “business as usual” route would have likely tipped the scales in the other direction; it’s a choice of people or money. Either way there would be massive fallout. I’m glad that so far we have chosen the ‘people’ option.
 
Isn't it hilarious how all these businesses stick their hand out in a time of crisis? The recent bailout was $2.5 trillion and the biggest share is going to be handed out without oversight to multi-national corporations by Steve Manuchian with very little oversight. But the few hundred bucks that working class tax payers get are being called an incentive not to work and seen with disdain as socialism.
 
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