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Upset Guesses (Sept 25)

Which upsets are likely?

  • #25 Cent Arkansas (1-2) vs #1 SHSU (2-0)

    Votes: 7 11.1%
  • South Dakota (2-1) at #18 Missouri State (1-1)

    Votes: 44 69.8%
  • Illinois State (2-1) at #7 So. Illinois (2-1)

    Votes: 18 28.6%
  • Indiana State (2-1) vs #2 SDSU (2-0)

    Votes: 2 3.2%
  • Holy Cross (2-1) at #20 Monmouth (2-1)

    Votes: 13 20.6%
  • Wofford (1-1) at #22 VMI (2-1)

    Votes: 12 19.0%
  • Samford (2-1) vs #15 ETSU (3-0)

    Votes: 4 6.3%
  • UT Martin (2-1) at #9 Jacksonville St (2-1)

    Votes: 4 6.3%
  • E Kentucky (1-2) vs #19 Austin Peay (2-1)

    Votes: 4 6.3%

  • Total voters
    63

IdaGriz01

Well-known member
With seven ranked teams having a bye week (and so many ranked teams in the Big Sky), I thought it might be difficult to assemble a good list for this week. But … no problem. We have one ranked-vs-ranked matchup and several where the underdog (on the left, remember) team is playing at home, which generally improves their chances for an upset.

As usual, you are allowed two picks, and you can change them later.

Oh, 'lest we forget: Bobcats Suck!
 
I don't think any of those are happening but if I have to pick one I'll take Central Arkansas over the overrated bearkats.
 
Commentary
With their W-L record, I’m not sure how Central Arkansas is still ranked in the top-25, but they are. They need a win against Sam Houston. Otherwise, I would expect them to go into a free-fall as far as the rankings go. They are, luckily for them, playing at home.

That begs the question: How good, really, is #18 Missouri State? They hung tough against FBS Oklahoma State, but their one win (43-34) was at home against Central Arkansas. Hmmm.

The MVFC game between Illinois State and Southern Illinois is interesting because both have similar records, with their single losses being on the road to FBS opponents. The high ranking for SIU may simply be because they were high in the pre-season polls. Illinois State has home-field advantage, so we’ll see if the lofty ranking is justified.

Of course, we can all agree that SDSU deserves their ranking after their win over pathetic Colorado State. However, their other win was over a weak (8-14 since 2017) D-II team. Indiana State has had two solid wins, with their only loss to a respectable Big Ten team (Northwestern). Perhaps the Sycamores’ home field advantage will be enough.

Holy Cross is another one that’s hard to figure. They looked good in the upset of UConn … but that was just poor, pathetic UConn. Then they lost to Merrimack (who?). Merrimack is new to FCS (2019), but they do look like a credible low-level program. Then the Crusaders squeaked by at Yale. Do they have another upset in them? Well, Monmouth’s two wins came against opponents that are a combined 1-4, and they got pounded by a not-very-good FBS team (Middle Tennessee State).

Ranked VMI also got pounded by its FBS opponents (Kent State), but feasted on two FCS cupcakes. Wofford won on the road at Elon, then lost to Kennesaw State. But Kenn-State is looking pretty good, so that may not be much of a down-check. I’d almost rate this one a toss-up.

Samford lost to UT-Martin but looked solid in their two wins. Of course, ETSU handily upset Vanderbilt in their first game, but that was Vanderbilt’s first game under a new coach and, well, Vandy is Vandy (in football). Since then, ETSU has won over a weak D-II team and pitiful Delaware State.

UT Martin lost to an okay FBS opponent (Western Kentucky) but was solid in their two wins. Of course, we were all thrilled by the Jacksonville State upset of Florida State. But they lost decisively to UAB and barely outlasted – at home – a sad North Alabama (0-3) team.

I almost didn’t include the Eastern Kentucky vs Austin Peay game in the list. AP has done well against FCS opponents (admittedly, only poor to mediocre competition), and their only loss was to Ole Miss. Eastern Kentucky’s only win was a squeaker at Western Carolina. Their losses were to FBS Louisville and Indiana State (2-1). Since Indiana State is looking pretty solid (and the Colonels only lost by two points) and Eastern Kentucky is at home, I figure there is still some chance for an upset.
 
Fun story: I was in Johnson City, TN (Home of ETSU) the night ETSU beat Vandy. I was a little busy though watching the Griz beat UDub.
I don’t think JC’s downtown was hopping as much as Missoula’s downtown that night…
 
Grizzly Oredigger said:
Fun story: I was in Johnson City, TN (Home of ETSU) the night ETSU beat Vandy. I was a little busy though watching the Griz beat UDub.
I don’t think JC’s downtown was hopping as much as Missoula’s downtown that night…

Was downtown Johnson City a sausage fest?
 
It seems that lots of people are not impressed by Missouri State being ranked #18. Or, perhaps, they are just more impressed by South Dakota (which, however, received just 9 votes in the last STATS poll). And that makes sense. They missed winning at Kansas by a bit over a minute when the Jayhawks completed a late TD pass. Of course, UK had lost thirteen games in a row before that, so it’s not like the ‘Yotes almost upset a powerhouse FBS. But then they proceeded to drub Northern Arizona (34-7) and Cal Poly (48-14).

(I might have to consider changing my choice.)
 
South Dakota seems pretty solid so far this year. They win this one, and probably upset another of their MVFC opponents down the road.
 
Earliest game that's on the poll (Holy Cross at #20 Month) starts at 11:00 am. Still time get in (or change) your choices.

Obligatory: Bobcats suck!

Meanwhile: GO GRIZ! :egriz:
 
First upset of the day, Holy Cross over #20 Monmouth 45-15 (a beat-down, really). One of my picks BTW.
 
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