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Upset Guesses (November 27)

Which upsets are likely?

  • Sacred Heart (8-3) at Holy Cross (9-2)

    Votes: 3 5.8%
  • Davidson (8-2) at #10 Kennesaw State (10-1)

    Votes: 3 5.8%
  • #20 SFA (8-3) at #13 Incarnate Word (9-2)

    Votes: 15 28.8%
  • #14 UC Davis (8-3) at #11 South Dakota State (8-3)

    Votes: 8 15.4%
  • #16 UT Martin (9-2) at #12 Missouri State (8-3)

    Votes: 5 9.6%
  • Northern Iowa (6-5) at #4 Eastern Washington (9-2)

    Votes: 32 61.5%
  • #21 Southern Illinois (7-4) at #17 South Dakota (7-4)

    Votes: 18 34.6%
  • #22 Florida A&M (9-2) at #18 SE Louisiana (8-3)

    Votes: 8 15.4%

  • Total voters
    52

IdaGriz01

Well-known member
I decided to do another of these just to have something to talk about while the Griz enjoy their bye. I mean, what else is there? When I had them, I used the latest STATS rankings to designate the “underdog” in each case. Of course, neither Sacred Heart nor Holy Cross are ranked, so I went with the better record and home-field advantage. A few of the matchups look pretty unlikely for upsets, but “that’s why you play the game.”

As usual, you are allowed two picks, and you can change your mind (and votes).

Official verification: Bobcats Suck!
 
Commentary

The Sacred Heart at Holy Cross seems like a slam dunk, with a better overall record for the home team and the upset of UConn in their back pocket. (But is beating UConn really that big a deal?) Two glimmers appear. First, Sacred Heart lost their stud running back to injury in their first game and he was out for most of the season. He is now rounding back into form. The teams had two common opponents (the competition levels seem pretty similar). Both handily beat Bucknell. The other glimmer is that Holy Cross lost by 14 points to Merrimack, whereas Sacred Heart won by 10.

Based on the comparative records and level of competition, the Davidson at Kennesaw State matchup does not look promising. But here’s a bit of intrigue: Davidson in #1 in Rush Offense (348.4 yards per game) and Kennesaw is #2 (275.5 ypg). Davidson is also #1 in 3rd Down Conversions (54.3%). FWIW: The Wildcats are #2 in Time of Possession. The game should go fast, at least.

Aside for those unranked auto-qualifiers from the weakest conferences, the first round actually shapes up to be pretty competitive. Certainly we have several chances for close games and possible upsets. In fact, there are several I see as “too close to call,” so I’ll leave it at that.
 
I only picked one...

#20 SFA (8-3) at #13 Incarnate Word (9-2)

SFA is the better team. Offenses are about equal, but Incarnate Word D tends to look like they only have 9 players on the field, I got SFA by 14
 
grizpsych said:
How can I be the only one to pick Missouri State?
Lots of good choices.

Besides, over the long term, the OVC has a history of looking great during the regular season, and then laying an egg in the playoffs.
 
AZGrizFan said:
grizpsych said:
How can I be the only one to pick Missouri State?
I think Missouri State is UNDER valued….they are my darkhorse for a deeper run…
Not one of my picks to get upset, that's for sure. That one-TD loss at Oklahoma State gets even more impressive, with Okie State now sitting at #7 in the FBS ranking.
 
Bump, just to put it at the top to encourage more votes. First game at 10 o'clock.

How many voters truly believe that UNI can upset EWU ... and how many are just hatin' on the Eagles? Some, I'm sure. :lol:
 
Paytonlives said:
I only picked one...

#20 SFA (8-3) at #13 Incarnate Word (9-2)

SFA is the better team. Offenses are about equal, but Incarnate Word D tends to look like they only have 9 players on the field, I got SFA by 14

I went this way also. I watched part of an IW game this year and they looked terrible
 
IdaGriz01 said:
Bump, just to put it at the top to encourage more votes. First game at 10 o'clock.

How many voters truly believe that UNI can upset EWU ... and how many are just hatin' on the Eagles? Some, I'm sure. :lol:

I hate EWU but the Eags win this game nine out of ten games.
 
MontanaJack2006 said:
Paytonlives said:
I only picked one...

#20 SFA (8-3) at #13 Incarnate Word (9-2)

SFA is the better team. Offenses are about equal, but Incarnate Word D tends to look like they only have 9 players on the field, I got SFA by 14
I went this way also. I watched part of an IW game this year and they looked terrible
Actually, we would not say they looked "terrible," overall. As Payton says, the Inkies have a pretty good O, but the D is (to be charitable) "suspect." We've watch at least parts of several of their games and remarked: "This game will go to whoever has the ball last." The game with SELA looked like a friggin' track meet ... over 100 points scored and over 1200 yards of offense between them. :eek: I must say, it's fun to watch, if you like scoring.
 
Oops. :oops:

A small mea culpa. In picking Holy Cross as the favorite, I went on their record compared to Sacred Heart. If I'd been paying more attention, I'd have known they were ranked #24 in the STATS poll (and also in the coaches poll, FWIW). Of course, right now they're down 10-6 and have the potential for being our first upset. But ... they're moving the ball and they have time.
 
IdaGriz01 said:
Oops. :oops:

A small mea culpa. In picking Holy Cross as the favorite, I went on their record compared to Sacred Heart. If I'd been paying more attention, I'd have known they were ranked #24 in the STATS poll (and also in the coaches poll, FWIW). Of course, right now they're down 10-6 and have the potential for being our first upset. But ... they're moving the ball and they have time.
Well, there went that upset. Last minute score give Holy Cross the win 10-13.
 
One pick not so good this week, although it took overtime to mess up the SFA upset. Sigh.

The other could still happen, but SIU lead is pretty shaky ... check that (sorta), they at least managed another field goal.

Edit: It looks bad for FAMU at SE Louisiana. What was the last time a SWAC team even won an FCS playoff game (if ever)?
 
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