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Beat the Spread Guesses (Dec 3, 4)

Who will beat the spread?

  • Holy Cross (10-2) at Villanova (9-2) … [13]

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • ETSU (10-1) vs Kennesaw State (11-1) … [2.5]

    Votes: 7 14.9%
  • Incarnate Word (10-2) at Sam Houston (10-0) … [13.5]

    Votes: 9 19.1%
  • Southern Illinois (8-4) at North Dakota State (10-1) … [15]

    Votes: 8 17.0%
  • SE Louisiana (9-3) at James Madison (10-1) … [15]

    Votes: 23 48.9%

  • Total voters
    47

IdaGriz01

Well-known member
As Hooked pointed out on his Matchups thread, we’re faced with a lot of games in the next round where the chances for upsets seem pretty limited. And since I almost never do Big Sky games, that shortens the list even more for an Upset Guesses poll.

So I said to myself: “Self, what can we kick around while we wait?” Answer: “Who can beat the spread?” So here goes. Of course, it’s difficult to find betting data on FCS games, but I found at least one … at the DraftKings Sportsbook. Right now, that link is:
https://sportsbook.draftkings.com/leagues/football/88671230?wpsrc=Organic%20Search&wpaffn=Google&wpkw=https%3A%2F%2Fsportsbook.draftkings.com%2Fleagues%2Ffootball%2F88671230&wpcn=leagues&wpscn=football%2F88671230

You are allowed one pick, but you can change your mind (and votes). We’re likely to see more reasons to do that, since the spreads tend to move as money flows in for one or the other team. I know of no way to change the “meat” of the poll without screwing up the votes, so we’ll have to stick with the spreads posted this (Tuesday) afternoon. Favorite is on the right and their points “advantage” is shown in [brackets].

Official verification: Bobcats Suck!
 
Commentary
Since we don’t bet on sports, I don’t have a good handle on these spreads, or how much they might change over the course of the week. I’ll give my current opinions and hope for the best.

Can Holy Cross stay within 13 points of Villanova? Well, HC barely managed to score against Sacred Heart (ended 13-10). I’m not seeing much chance here. I’d say three touchdowns for ‘Nova seems more likely.

The ETSU vs Kennesaw State game is the real crap-shoot, with such a small spread. In fact, this is one where an upset seems not out of the question, especially since ETSU is at home. But if ETSU has trouble with the option and K-State gets rolling, the Owls could blow them out.

Incarnate Word at Sam Houston is another very interesting matchup. This year, Inc Word has been involved in a number of shoot-outs. Sometimes, we felt like “whoever has the ball last, wins.” So I can see SHSU winning, but the Cardinals may have enough firepower to beat that 13.5 point spread.

Southern Illinois at North Dakota State is equally interesting, but for the opposite reason. Both teams can score, but not necessarily in bunches. And, as we all know, MVFC teams tend to emphasize stout defense. I see it entirely possible that the Salukis can stay within two touchdowns of NDSU.

SE Louisiana at James Madison is another toughie. The Lions scored a lot of points toward the end of the season (as did the Dukes). But I’d venture to say they’ve not seen anything to equal the JMU defense. Unless SELA gets really hot, I’m not sure they can even score two touchdowns in this game.
 
IdaGriz01 said:
... We’re likely to see more reasons to do that, since the spreads tend to move as money flows in for one or the other team. I know of no way to change the “meat” of the poll without screwing up the votes, so we’ll have to stick with the spreads posted this (Tuesday) afternoon. ...

Official verification: Bobcats Suck!
Example (Big Sky match not included): When I created the poll, Draftkings had Montana State a 12.5 point favorite over UT Martin. It's now at 11.0.
 
Paytonlives said:
James Madison is overrated and SE LA is Underrated....

SE AL might beat them straight up!

I will take this action. I will take JMU -15. $100 to the victims of the Denton Fire (Believe there are a couple funds set up for them). You in?
 
SACCAT66 said:
Paytonlives said:
James Madison is overrated and SE LA is Underrated....

SE AL might beat them straight up!

I will take this action. I will take JMU -15. $100 to the victims of the Denton Fire (Believe there are a couple funds set up for them). You in?

Sure Count me in. I got SE +15
 
Paytonlives said:
SACCAT66 said:
I will take this action. I will take JMU -15. $100 to the victims of the Denton Fire (Believe there are a couple funds set up for them). You in?

Sure Count me in. I got SE +15

Done!! Now I got money on two games...
 
Almost no movement on the Draftkings Sportsbook for the FCS games. (Some moved a bit, but then drifted back to what they were early in the week.) Right now, the only difference has NDSU a 14.5 point favorite over Southern Illinois, rather the 15.

FWIW: THe MSU points over UT Martin started at 12.5, dropped to 11 for awhile, but are now at 12. Not paying attention, or don't care, I guess.
The biggest change (not on the poll): South Dakota started as an 8.5 point favorite over Sac State, and that has now dropped to 7.
 
No one picked Holy Cross to beat the spread (Who would?), so we'll have to wait until tomorrow for the others on the poll. Still time to put in your votes.
 
IdaGriz01 said:
No one picked Holy Cross to beat the spread (Who would?), so we'll have to wait until tomorrow for the others on the poll. Still time to put in your votes.
HOLY COW! Hopped out to see what else was going on.

Anyone who had the guts to pick Holy Cross to beat the spread (13) just made some money. Villanova won, but only by 5 points.


Meanwhile: GO GRIZ! :egriz:
 
Anybody out there win some $$$ on Holy Cross?

Still a little time to get your votes in. Next two games on the poll start at noon.
 
IdaGriz01 said:
Commentary
... SE Louisiana at James Madison is another toughie. The Lions scored a lot of points toward the end of the season (as did the Dukes). But I’d venture to say they’ve not seen anything to equal the JMU defense. Unless SELA gets really hot, I’m not sure they can even score two touchdowns in this game.
Ouch.

I knew JMU could score, but sure didn't see how feeble the SELA defense was. This has already gotten ungly and it could get uglier in second half.
 
IdaGriz01 said:
IdaGriz01 said:
Commentary
... SE Louisiana at James Madison is another toughie. The Lions scored a lot of points toward the end of the season (as did the Dukes). But I’d venture to say they’ve not seen anything to equal the JMU defense. Unless SELA gets really hot, I’m not sure they can even score two touchdowns in this game.
Ouch.

I knew JMU could score, but sure didn't see how feeble the SELA defense was. This has already gotten ungly and it could get uglier in second half.
Wow. Talk about "covering" the spread, which was 15 ... JMU more than doubled it. That was the top vote-getter, but I suspect that was more hope than real expectation.

Right now looks like NDSU is going to cover easy over SIU.

So far, two have beat the spread: Holy Cross and ETSU. The latter was no big deal. Kennesaw State was only favored by 2.5 points, so that could have gone either way.

The only one still up in the air is Incarnate Word at SHSU (which happens to be my pick). Right now, Inc Word is beating the spread -- CHECK THAT, they just scored to take the lead. But lots of time left (early in 4th quarter). Heck of a game so far. Would love to see an outright upset.
 
Paytonlives said:
SACCAT66 said:
I will take this action. I will take JMU -15. $100 to the victims of the Denton Fire (Believe there are a couple funds set up for them). You in?

Sure Count me in. I got SE +15

JMU wins BIG. I donated an extra $200 (other than the $200 I lost on the EWU bet...) so with your $100, we raised $500 just on those 2 bets, and both our teams are playing next week... Not bad.
 
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