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Lady Griz v Sac St Preview Analysis

BigSkyBreakdown

Well-known member
Big Sky Breakdown is a new website that will deliver player, team, league content and analysis of teams in regards to the Women's side of the conference. If you want to see the full breakdown and film of what to look for in Thursdays matchup go check out our site at www.bigskybreakdown.com. You can also follow us on Twitter @bigskybreakdown.

Hope you enjoy the preview.


Montana against Sac State Preview

In our first pregame matchup, Big Sky Breakdown will take a look at two programs with two new coaches. Mark Campbell of the Sac State Hornets (who also interviewed for the Montana job) and Brian Holsinger of Montana. While Montana is off to its best start in quite some time (5-1) their strength of schedule is 286. Sac State on the other hand is still trying to figure out its new identity, and with a record of 3-4 has a strength of schedule of 256. Let’s take a look at some keys for this game. (This pregame & film breakdown are provided at our website www.bigskybreakdown.com).

Matchups To Watch:

Gfeller and Natabou: Gfeller, who quite possibly is the most efficient player in the Big Sky Conference minus her assist to turnover ratio (6:23) is a fantastic inside-outside threat. She is shooting a remarkable 64.7% from the floor and 54.5% on 6-11 3 point attempts this year. Natabou who averages 10.6 PPG, and 8.1 RPG (4.3 offensive rebounds a game) is a big, athletic rebounding machine. Her overall game is not as polished as Gfeller’s, but she is effective, strong, and provides a really large, high-energy presence in the paint. Will Gfeller be able to contain the Natabou in the paint and keep her off of the glass? Can Natabou slow down Gfeller on the offensive end?

Stiles and Tillman: Stiles is a stat stuffer. She is incredible at rebounding for a guard at only 5’9 averaging 6.2 RPG, and also adds 11 ppg and 4 assists. Any critiques of Stiles are her inconsistent 3 point shooting and her untimely turnovers (oftentimes 1 handed casual passes). Stiles is a fantastic defender and will have her hands full with a high-volume shooter in Tillman who averages 19.7 PPG on 20 shot attempts per game and 5.1 APG. Tillman a grad transfer from Pacific loves to get shots up and will get many of them off of DHO and P&R actions. Her pull-up game and ability to get to the basket will be a priority of the Lady Griz. Look for Sac St to play DROP coverage in any of these actions with their bigs and allow Tillman to go under the P&R/DHO actions. Stiles will have her hands full guarding Tillman. Look for Stiles or any guard to chase over the top of any P&R actions.

Menke and Who: Who guards Summer Menke? The Lady Griz deploy a traditional lineup with two bigs while the Hornets only play one big at a time with Natabou getting the bulk of the minutes. This matchup is going to be key for the Lady Griz and the Hornets. Menke who averages 14.1 ppg, 7 RPG, and who shots almost 40% from 3 has given the Lady Griz problems in the past. She is effective from the high post, off of the dribble in both isolation and P&R, and shooting the spot-up 3. Look for the Lady Griz to guard by committee. On the other hand who will Menke guard for the Lady Griz? Look for the Menke/Anderson matchup to start the game. Another potential player who could potentially guard Menke for the Lady Griz could be Dani Bartsch who has played very effectively off the bench for the Lady Griz to start the season (5.2 PPG, 5.5 RPG shooting 58.3% in 14 MPG).


Keys for the Lady Griz:

Montana who plays primarily man to man will have their hands full guarding the amount of DHO and P&R actions the Hornets love to run. Montana does not like to switch, but will on necessity. Sac State is primarily a 4 guard lineup which could present an issue for the Lady Griz who are only allowing 54.7 PPG. How will Montana decide to guard all of the P&R actions thrown at them?

Keep Natabou and the Hornets off the offensive glass. This was an issue against Gonzaga and Houston Baptist. While Natabou and Falkowska (both 6’5) provide the size the Lady Griz don’t have, they do split time with only one of them on the floor at a time. The Lady Griz will have to do a great job of blocking out Natabou and Falkowska and team rebound effectively on the defensive end.

The Lady Griz have only seen 12% of their offensive possession against the zone. If Sac St goes zone how will the Lady Griz attack both the 2-2-1 full-court pressure and 2-3 zones of the Hornets who are playing this close to 40% of the time. The Lady Griz struggled vs North Dakota State who played a lot of 2-2-1 back to 2-3. The Lady Griz only shoot 31.6% from 3 and a lot of times teams fall in love with the perimeter shot to beat the zone. Look for the Lady Griz to flash players into the soft spot of that zone just below the free-throw line. If they are successful at attacking the middle then it should allow for more driving lines, cutters from the backside, and open threes for the Lady Griz.


Keys for the Hornets:

Can the guard-heavy Hornets take advantage of mismatches and the traditional nonswitching defensive style of the Lady Griz? The Hornets love to create lots of movement and actions that pose issues for teams with their size and speed. There will be lots of false actions and tons of P&R actions for the Lady Griz to guard. This could put the Lady Griz in a lot of issues due to the quick guards of the Hornets and the Menke matchup.

Will there 2-2-1 full-court pressure and 2-3 Syracuse style zone slow down the Lady Griz? Lately, the Hornets have played a mix of man and zone trying to find the right defense to get stops and keep their opponent off balance. If they can limit paint touches by Gfeller, Anderson and effectively rebound out of the zone this could be the one area the Hornets have over the Lady Griz. Lady Griz struggled versus the same style of defense against NDSU and I am sure this is on the scout for the week. They will need to slow down the Lady Griz offense that is averaging 70.4 PPG. Will this effectively contain Fatkin, Stiles, and Gfeller?

Sac State must limit its turnovers if it expects to have a chance against the Lady Griz. The Hornets who average 13.6 turnovers per game need to take care of the ball. The Lady Griz are very good in offensive transition and average .972 PPP against their opponents. Other than scoring off of cutting (1.26 PPP) and offensive rebounding (1.46 PPP) offensive transition is the Lady Griz 3rd highest PPP category.
 
Great preview....nice/thanks. How to watch the game: Missoulian today reports only radio. GoGriz reports ESPN+ Which is it?
 
MTbest said:
Great preview....nice/thanks. How to watch the game: Missoulian today reports only radio. GoGriz reports ESPN+ Which is it?

Sure hope it's on espn+ since I bought a subscription. GoGriz schedule says both so should be good either way.
 
Here are some sets and actions you can be sure to see from both the Hornets and Lady Griz tomorrow night.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OWc2j_q741o&t=8s
 
This is great content BSB, it is better than anything I have seen for BigSky Conference basketball, men's or women's! Thank you and I look forward to more from you as the season progresses!!
I agree with the your keys to the game for the Lady Griz.
Statistically Sac has the conference leading scorer and rebounder, but I really like the Lady Griz in this game. While it is hard to compare records early in the preseason due to a lack of common opponents, I'm using Seattle U as a barometer. Sac lost to Seattle U and I have 100 confidence the Lady Griz will beat them next week, thus in my mind the Lady Griz are ahead of Sac at this point in the season...let's hope my assessment is correct.
I'll add to your overview that Sammy has been a huge addition for the Lady Griz, and Abby typically ramps up her game even more during conference play so I'm expecting for great contributions from both of these Lady Griz. Also our freshman sniper, Haley Huard, has shown the ability to score in bunches, and she is an excellent rebounder.
It's a great way to start conference play. Go Lady Griz.
 
I watched the second half of Sac State's game vs. a good Cal Irvine team (which was not ranked, but got votes in the College Insider poll this week). The Hornets, behind outstanding point guard play from grad transfer Lianna Tillman (19 ppg) pushed Irvine all game. I think Tillman immediately qualifies as a top 5 pg in the Big Sky. She drives to the right very well, and gets the ball into Natabou's hands very well. She's also a good perimeter shooter. Also, there's a reason (two, actually) the Hornets play a lot of zone D: 1-- soph 6-5 center Isnelle Natabou (10.6 ppg) is physically imposing and a very good rebounder. Her shot is tough to block if she gets it in the paint; 2-- But... Natabou is a liability defensively outside the paint if called upon to play on-one D. Otherwise, Montana fans will remember sr forward Summer Meinke (14.1 ppg), Jazzy Carrasco and Jessica Rios from their Big Sky tourney loss last spring to the Hornets in the post-season tourney: they hustle and shoot the ball well, especially from the perimeter. I'm not a very good judge at comparing teams, but believe the Hornets to be measurably improved from last season. No longer a cellar dweller.

That said, I think the Griz match up well with the Hornets. Abby Anderson, if she can avoid foul trouble, could well neutralize Natabou. Montana has back court players who can offset Tillman's play, but need to keep her out of the paint. The Hornets' zone got stretched quite a bit by Irvine. They'd rather pack the paint. So... if Montana can score from the perimeter, that would be good. Also, Natabou seems coached to stay smack under the hoop on D. If the Griz can get the ball into the paint high, there could be open shots for Gfeller, Frohlich, and Bartsch in the high post. OR, if the Griz rotate Abby to the high post and move Carmen into the low blocks, I'll be interested to see how well Carmen can score vs. the much taller Nabatou, who doesn't leave her feet much.

If there's any motivation, I'd say that coach Holsinger is highly motivated to get his first win in Big Sky conf action asap. I'm thinking he's thoroughly scouted the Hornets. Looking forward to this. Go Griz.
 
Thank you GrizzlyJournal and BigSkyBreakdown for all the work you go through to do in-depth analysis!
 
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