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Big Sky Week ending 11/27

GrizBall

Well-known member
KenPom’s current ranking and how much they are up or down from the beginning of the season (I make up the Tiers).

Tier 1
1. Cats 188 (-15)

Tier 2
2. Griz 216 (-34)
3. UNC 235 (-53)
4. EWU 236 (-44)
5. PSU 238 (+56)

Tier 3
6. Sac 253 (+23)
7. WSU 255 (-24)
8. NAU 256 (+5)

Tier 4
9. ISU 323 (+22)
10. UI. 349 (+3)



Last week I thought we would see some separation this week as we are now about 25% through the season. However, the opposite happened. At the top MSU and The Griz were underwhelming. And UNC lost to a D-2 team . . . at home! KenPom overrates UNC because I believe he does not acknowledge non D-1 games (even losses). So if UNC lost to the one of worst D-1 teams instead of a D-2 team I believe they would be closer to Sac than 3rd in the conference.

Shout out to PSU for beating OSU a 2nd time this season. OSU is barely an average Big Sky team at this point, but Big Sky over PAC-12 wins are still rare.

Best Players thus far in the conference according to Bart Torvik (like KenPom this is done strictly by algorithm).

1. Cam Parker - PSU
2. Issac Jones - UI
3. Divante Moffitt - UI
4. Josh Bannan
5. Raequan Battle - Cats

Interesting UI has 2 of the top 3 players, but the worst team so far. Kind of like the Lakers I guess.

Ironically Torvik’s formula (like KenPom) also has the Cats and Griz as the top 2 teams and WSU, NAU and the Idaho’s in the bottom 4. The middle is the same but in somewhat different order.

Scroll to the bottom of link for complete player rankings.

https://barttorvik.com/conf.php?conf=BSky



A number of posters believe some teams that have more time playing together will see a drastic improvement. I see only a couple of those situations in the Big Sky.

Weber State - Not sure what is going on at Weber. Their best player Dillon Jones looked to be a DNP-Coach’s Decision and Weber beats a fairly tough Abilene Christian team for probably the 3rd best win by a Big Sky team this year. Jones comes off the bench the next game against Wright State and WSU takes a 22-pt loss (WSU also played this game without Tew its 6’11 center). They do have a new HC, who was an assistant there and a number of new players. This is the type of situation where more time playing together may actually result in a team that looks drastically different in February and March (new coach with many new rotation players).

Sac State: The Hornets have similar characteristics with a new coach and numerous new players on the squad. I believe you will see more production from Oregon State transfer Gianni Hunt as the season goes forward. I think lack of depth ultimately caps them out as a middle tier Big Sky team, but I believe the future is bright there.
 
Griz Week:


It’s not about the X’s and O’s it’s about the Jimmy’s and Joe’s (aka “players over plays”). If your system requires the Oguines, Rories and Pridgetts of the world to be successful, then you better be able to recruit those types of players or develop a system that can be successful with the types of players you are most likely to attract. It’s like Phil Jackson taking over the Charlotte Hornets and being confused as to why they don’t make the play-offs: “I won 9 championships running the triangle with the Bulls and Lakers!”

It’s no secret that in basketball, your best offensive players are likely to be average to below average defensive players and vice-versa. Take a look at this year’s team. How many are average-to-below average offensive players? How many are above average? I am guessing your average-to-below average count will be higher than what is likely representative of an above-average team. Sometimes I get the feeling that Davidson’s Steph Curry and Oklahoma’s Trae Young would be seen primarily as defensive liabilities. Remember: if Player A holds his man to 2 points but only scores 1 and Player B holds his man to 4 points but scores 5, Player B is likely to lead you to more wins. I am pretty confident which Player would be getting the most playing time for the Griz.


Here are a couple things to watch for:

1. Bannan and Whitney’s minutes- if you need 32 minutes from Bannan to beat a D-2 team and 39 from Whitney to stay competitive with AF, then they are going to be putting in some heavy minutes. Will be interesting to see how they look come February.


2. College coaches are pretty wild in their devotion to their “system.” I’m waiting to see which coach goes full-on Westbrook with Whitney instead of sticking to “this is how we always play defense.” I have seen a few Laker games where they don’t even guard Westbrook outside of the paint. Also, why teams go over the screens on Whitney is mind-boggling. Particularly outside of the 3 point line. In addition this causes a small to have to switch onto Bannan which is also an advantage for the Griz. The amount of straight-line right hand drives Whitney got in the first half against AF was almost comical. But if they are going to give that to Whitney good on him for destroying them.
 
Thanks for the update, GrizBall! No doubt the Big Sky is putting up UNimpressive stats so far. I also follow Haslametrics and have found it more accurate in early rankings (last season Kenpom & Haslametrics were nearly identical... and very accurate over the final month of play). Here's where Haslametrics has pegged the Big Sky as of this a.m.
169 -- Portland State
205 -- Montana State
210 -- Eastern Washington
226 -- Montana
234 -- Northern Colorado
251 -- Sacramento State
290 -- Northern Arizona
293 -- Idaho State
299 -- Weber State
323 -- Idaho

Portland State's two wins over Oregon State are a good indicator I think, since OSU is ranked 181... not a bad team (unless you rank them vs Pac12 opponents). The Irony about the Vikings is that Cam Parker is their anchor in minutes and scoring.
Perhaps we could solicit a reading and an opinion from oldrunner. He's followed the Big Sky and the Wildcats for a looong time (like me with the Griz :D ) and might have a reading on WSU and the conf.
 
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