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2024 Grizzly Softball Pre-Season Prospectus

Grizfan-24

Well-known member
Staff member
Hey folks time for a little bit of Grizzly Softball talk. Can't say this is perfect, but with a the season starting in a week or two, might as well throw this out there.

Last Year: 10-37, 4-11 in BSC, 0-2 in Big Sky Conference Tournament

Summary: I don't think it took a genius to figure out that the season started off rough and then just spiraled downward from there. The poorest performance by a Montana Softball team record wise and a team that struggled in multiple facets with few ready made answers. A thin pitching staff, a struggling offense and the inability to get the clutch play doomed the team throughout their season.
Pitching: Dana Butterfield broke her ankle weeks for the season started and left a hole in the pitching staff that they weren't fully able to plug. The Lady Griz finished 286th out of 295 NCAA D1 softball programs in ERA with 6.44 record. Allie Brock who was looking to build off of a strong Sophomore campaign, and she struggled with control (65 walks/30 HBP) in just over a 100 innings pitched and saw her ERA hover around 5.5 to 6.5 for much of the season. The rest of the staff struggled with similar issues (Haegele 82 BB/HBP in 87 innings, O'Brien 37 in 41, 46 in 41 IP) and it became a snow ball effect for the program as they struggled to cover innings with increased pitch counts as the the season wore on.
Offensively, the expectation was that the high contact/OBP group that performed so well in the 2022 season would carry over to the 2023 season even with the loss of Maygen McGrath and provide one of the deeper offenses in the BSC. Much like the pitching, the performance never materialized and the team struggled to consistently hit and put runs across the plate. They finished in the bottom NCAA's in batting average, runs per game (277th), Slugging Percentage, and OBP. Ontiveros, Jantzi, Phelps and Klucewich all saw their averages dip, and no one on the team finished above .300 on the season. They had a lot of bad luck, loud outs, and some questionable base running that ended rallies, cut innings short and led to games they lost in excruciating fashion.
Defensively, UM probably didn't perform as close to standard in part because it was over exposed with as much base running traffic they had all year. Long innings and a lot balls put in play led to a team that was supposed to be one of the better defensive units in the BSC finish the season in bottom tier of fielding percentage. Moreover they struggled to control the running game, throwing out less than 10% of base runners all year and teams were commonly able to take extra bases off of mental lapses.

2024 Season
Expectations/Must Win?: After last year, the expectation to win is extremely high for the staff. I'd assume they've been put on notice about seeing significant growth in the program for the 2024 season. I'd don't know if it is truly a must win season for Coach Meuchel and the staff, but it has to be pretty close. Last year was awful and they have to be able to flush the stench of the season and start the 2024 campaign off strong.

The Roster:
Returners: 13: (9 regulars (2SP/7position players)
P: Brock (SR), Haegele (So),
IF: 4 Starters: Saxton (So) , Sweyer (Sr), Jablonski (Jr) and Hardy(Jr). 2 Reserves: Strong (So.), Bonkavich (So).
OF(3) : 2 Starters: Ontiveros (Sr), Jantzi (Jr). Reserve: Stanfield (Jr)
C (2): Stockton (Sr) and Mohl (Jr.)

Newcomers: 6
P(3) : Brinka (So.)-TR, Herndon (FR)-HS, and Rehbein (FR)-HS
C (1): Tarrant (Fr)-HS
IF(2): Eisen (Jr)-TR, Peschek (Fr)-HS

--The roster returns plenty of experience, and yet very few seniors (Ontiveros, Sweyer, and Stockton) and is particularly deep on the corners in the IF with an abundance of talent that can play 1st or 3rd base. The concern is going to be up the middle 2B/SS where players with limited time last year or new to Missoula may see extended run at those positions. There isn't a lot of depth in the OF and it'll be interesting to see if one or two of the surplus of infielders find their way into the line up in the OF. The lineup needs to find some punch and whomever plays LF seems like a good candidate to be a player that might be a rotation of players to find who brings the most at the plate. Stockton is a solid catcher and that allowed the staff to move Mohl to 3rd/DH at times last year as her contact ability allowed her to get more AB as the season wore on. The pitching staff (more below) is essentially an overhaul from last year with three new pitchers to provide much needed innings and hopefully effectiveness.

Key Questions:
Can the Pitching Staff rebound and be competitive? Judging by the fact that Montana added 3 pitchers over the off-season that included Sophomore transfer Brinka from New Mexico, the staff clearly understood the need to improve inside the circle for the 2024 season. Butterfield retired, Joseph graduated and Freshman O'Brien left the program at the end of the season which meant they absolutely had to replenish the pitch staff. So like last year, UM is going to have to depend upon a lot of unproven talent to improve from last years results. The rumor is that Brock may miss the season with shoulder issues and that will leave Haegele as the lone returner with experience returning. The advantage this year is that there might be more depth in the squad on the mound with Haegele and Brinka both have some college experience but pair that with two talented freshmen in Herndon and Rehbein that can provide more innings to back Haegele and Brinka. That wasn't something that was readily available because of injuries and usage all year, so it will lead to less over use and tactical deployment of the staff this year. Haegele by the end of the year started to out run her control issues and has the stuff to lead the staff.

Will there be any punch to the offense? Montana returns most of its every day lineup from last year. They only graduated Phelps and Klucewich, and return several players that could be all BSC offensive players. Elise Ontiveros returns, along with Presley Jantzi (who hit .405 and had a .476 OBP in conference) and Grace Hardy (hit .282 and led the team in RBI's in conference). The lineup should be laden in experience and hopefully it will lead to increased performance. For as poor as the pitching was last year, the inability to score and win close ball games was just as poor. They were 6-12 in close ball games last year and 1-2 in extra innings. They scored 2 runs or less 26 times last year and of those they won 3 games. The offense needs to be better, and the advantage this squad can lean on is the fact that they are going to have an experienced lineup returning with some players at the top who have shown they can be above average BSC hitters in Ontiveros, Jantzi, Hardy and Jablonski.

Who figures to play a key role in a resurgence? Aside from the above mentioned players (Haegele, Ontiveros, etc) the Griz need quality innings from transfer Emmalyn Brinka. The sophomore went 3-7 for New Mexico, but did start 9 games last year and threw close to 50 innings for the Lobos. Obviously her Freshman statistics were a bit rough, but if Block maybe missing the season she is going to have to play a much larger role. Otherwise it falls to true Freshman Nyeala Herndon (Helena) who was one of the best prep-pitchers in AA a year ago or Rylee Rehbein who was an all league pick 3 times in HS for her HS in Battle Ground WA. Offensively, newcomer Riley Peschek may see extended run as a Freshman early on. She not only hit for power in HS, but for average as well. She hit over .600 as a Senior for Gig Harbor and was the 3A player of the in Washington. She plays a key position (Shortstop) and depending how the staff chooses to deploy their infielders, she could slide in to the position that was held by Jaxie Klucewich for much of the year. As for a player that could see an increase in playing time from last year is Makena Strong. The highly rated high school player was stuck behind a long list of personnel last year in the infield and saw limited action and could find playing time in a host of positions.

Looking at the schedule: Last year Montana faced several teams that ended up seeing themselves included in the NCAA softball tournament. That included two teams that made it to super-regionals in San Diego State and Oregon. Montana only played a handful of games at home and struggled to find quality D1 opponents to make the trip to Missoula for non-conference non-tournament games.

This year the schedule is a bit less daunting, only really includes a couple of teams that had post-season experience. Moreover you'll be able to see Montana at home more. That includes their own home tournament where they'll play 6 games over 4 days (TH-Su) and a 3 game series against Summit league opponent North Dakota. They also mix in two non-conference double headers against Montana NAIA schools Providence College (April 1st) and Carroll (April 16th). Maybe most importantly Montana plays 9 of its 15 conference games at home in 3 consecutive weeks (Northern Colorado, Idaho State and Portland State). The schedule sets up well for Montana this year to see some success in the non-conference slate and a conference schedule that sees them playing at home.

Key Non-Conference Matchups:
Mardi Gras Mambo (Nichols State, Southeastern Louisiana, Louisiana Monroe, Montana and Southern
  • Saturday February 10th: Southeastern Louisiana (2:30 MT)- SELA was 47-14 last year.
  • Saturday February 10th: Eastern Illinois (4:30 MT)- EIU was a NCAA qualifier in 2023

UTEP Invitational: UTEP, Purdue Fort Wayne, Nebraska, New Mexico State and Montana
  • Saturday February 17th: Nebraska (9:00AM) - Nebraska was a tournament qualifier last year and boasts SP Jordy Bahl

Purple Classic: Grand Canyon, Montana, Pacific, New Mexico, Toledo
  • Friday March 1st: Grand Canyon (7:00pm MT)- GCU was a national qualifier last year

Montana Softball Classic: Montana, Holy Cross, and Northern Illinois - This is Montana's first home games of the year and about as early as Montana can host a tournament. Holy Cross was 15-36 last year and Northern Illinois was 26-25. That they were able to get two teams to come to Missoula and play 5 or 6 games over 3 days is huge. As a reminder, Montana didn't not host a D1 non-conference foe at home last year.
  • Thursday March 7th Holy Cross (12:00) DH
  • Friday March 8th Northern Illinois (12:30pm)
Friday March 8th Holy Cross (3:00pm)
  • Saturday March 9th Northern Illinois (2:30pm)
  • Sunday March 10th: Northern Illinois (10:00am)

University of North Dakota Series: This is rare three game set non-conference game at home against a D1 opponent. While UND struggled last year, it is a quality opportunity to provide a conference type series (3 games in 3 days) that allows the team the ability to see success and then jump into conference play the following weekend.
  • March 22nd Game 1: 2pm
  • March 23rd Game 2: 1pm
  • March 24th Game 3: 12:00pm

Conference
  • March 29-30: @ Weber State (Double header Friday/Single Game Saturday)
  • April 6-7: v. Northern Colorado (Double Header Saturday, Single Game Sunday)
  • April 12-13: v. Idaho State (Double Header Friday, Single game Saturday
  • April 20-21: v. Portland State (Double Header Saturday, Single game Sunday
  • April 26-27: @ Sacramento State (Double Header Friday, Single Game Saturday

Conference Tournament:
  • May 8th-11th: Pocatello, Idaho (Idaho State)
 
Thank you for taking this over. I wrote these the first 5-6 years of the program but lost the fire the last couple of years as the program has begun what appears to be a downward spiral. If Brock is gone for the season, that might be a big blow to this very young and inexperienced staff. The offense, like usual, has the pedigree but the trend with Meuchel coached teams is not an offensive powerhouse. I have a lot of hope she gets this head coaching gig figured but honestly and truly, this should be a must win season for her to keep her job. Anything less than a top 3 finish in the con standings and at least one tourney win should mark the end of her Montana coaching career. I’ve always had a soft spot for her going to high school with her and her being a hometown girl but at some point enough is enough.
 
From a statistical analysis, Montana's year was a huge outlier in some respects especially on offense.

Here is a bit of a sampling: (Avg/BABIP/DIFF/KR)
PSU: -- .301 (.332) + 31 --15.2%
SS: -- .291 (332) +41 --14.2%
ISU: -- .284 (.323) +39 --18.1%
UNC: --.280 (.323) +43 --15.7%
WSU:-- .267 (.308) +41--19.2%
UM: -- .244 (.275) +31 -- 16.4%

Conference:
PSU:--.335 (.365) +30 --13.6%
SS:--.302 (326) +24 --12.6%
ISU:--.282 (.338) +56 -- 13.9%
UNC: .292 (.329) +37 -- 14.7%
WSU: 300 (.330) +30 -- 14.9%
UM: .272(292) +20 --10%

I don't know that a team suffered more from putting the ball in play last year in the conference than Montana. When you strike out as little as Montana did during conference season last year, you'd expect a lot more luck than what they got. In addition, in terms of actual percentage of total percentages, Montana put the ball in play more than any team in Big Sky Conference during conference play and I don't think it was particularly close. Montana put the ball in play nearly 85% of their PA's during BSC play, while conference BA leader PSU was closer to 75%. The difference was obviously staggering because Montana only hit .292 while PSU hit an other worldly .368. Maybe it was plate approach but you expect a bit more luck when you put the ball in play as much as Montana did last year.

When you look at the conference and ask the question can Montana finish in the top 3? I think its possible and it isn't that big of leap. First they need to get better pitching, and while that it is TBD as to what the staff looks like, if they just cut down on one metric (Walks/HBP) the team will have a fighting chance. Nothing else pitching wise was that far out of the norm, and if they lower the traffic on the bases and make teams hit, things will look a lot better. The WHIP was awful (2.15) and the K/BB ratio at least approaches 1 to 1, was nearly 1:2 last year with nearly 260 BB/HBP. If it creeps down into the mid 1.50 which is merely average for this level, it is going to reduce stress on the pitching staff tremendously.

But the big difference, I think is going to be offensively. If they can approach anywhere near league average, and I don't think it is that much of a stretch considering they are going to be returning most of the day-to-day lineup and they aren't replacing a ton either from who left (Phelps, Curtis, Klucewich) in terms of what they contributed last year. I don't see last year as a regression to the mean, where everyone in the lineup was a sub .300 hitter with OBP's and Slug's below .400. UM didn't have a single player with an OPS over .800 last year, and while I don't know that the slug % improves that much the abysmal .300 OBP has to. Wouldn't surprise me at all if we saw a team BA around .300, Slug in the .400's and an OBP around .400. I think it might be a pipe dream to expect a team OPS above .800 but if it approaches it, they are going to be in a lot more games than they were a year ago.
 
Grizfan-24 said:
From a statistical analysis, Montana's year was a huge outlier in some respects especially on offense.

Here is a bit of a sampling: (Avg/BABIP/DIFF/KR)
PSU: -- .301 (.332) + 31 --15.2%
SS: -- .291 (332) +41 --14.2%
ISU: -- .284 (.323) +39 --18.1%
UNC: --.280 (.323) +43 --15.7%
WSU:-- .267 (.308) +41--19.2%
UM: -- .244 (.275) +31 -- 16.4%

Conference:
PSU:--.335 (.365) +30 --13.6%
SS:--.302 (326) +24 --12.6%
ISU:--.282 (.338) +56 -- 13.9%
UNC: .292 (.329) +37 -- 14.7%
WSU: 300 (.330) +30 -- 14.9%
UM: .272(292) +20 --10%

I don't know that a team suffered more from putting the ball in play last year in the conference than Montana. When you strike out as little as Montana did during conference season last year, you'd expect a lot more luck than what they got. In addition, in terms of actual percentage of total percentages, Montana put the ball in play more than any team in Big Sky Conference during conference play and I don't think it was particularly close. Montana put the ball in play nearly 85% of their PA's during BSC play, while conference BA leader PSU was closer to 75%. The difference was obviously staggering because Montana only hit .292 while PSU hit an other worldly .368. Maybe it was plate approach but you expect a bit more luck when you put the ball in play as much as Montana did last year.

When you look at the conference and ask the question can Montana finish in the top 3? I think its possible and it isn't that big of leap. First they need to get better pitching, and while that it is TBD as to what the staff looks like, if they just cut down on one metric (Walks/HBP) the team will have a fighting chance. Nothing else pitching wise was that far out of the norm, and if they lower the traffic on the bases and make teams hit, things will look a lot better. The WHIP was awful (2.15) and the K/BB ratio at least approaches 1 to 1, was nearly 1:2 last year with nearly 260 BB/HBP. If it creeps down into the mid 1.50 which is merely average for this level, it is going to reduce stress on the pitching staff tremendously.

But the big difference, I think is going to be offensively. If they can approach anywhere near league average, and I don't think it is that much of a stretch considering they are going to be returning most of the day-to-day lineup and they aren't replacing a ton either from who left (Phelps, Curtis, Klucewich) in terms of what they contributed last year. I don't see last year as a regression to the mean, where everyone in the lineup was a sub .300 hitter with OBP's and Slug's below .400. UM didn't have a single player with an OPS over .800 last year, and while I don't know that the slug % improves that much the abysmal .300 OBP has to. Wouldn't surprise me at all if we saw a team BA around .300, Slug in the .400's and an OBP around .400. I think it might be a pipe dream to expect a team OPS above .800 but if it approaches it, they are going to be in a lot more games than they were a year ago.

The stinger is meuchel is the pitching coach and I’m having a tuff time remembering any pitchers that were significantly better then when they started their career at montana. Some actually declined. I know she’s had tuff luck lately with Brock this year and Butterfield last year but our best pitchers in program history we’re dominant as Fr.
 
I love Griz softball & have been a season-tix holder since the program's start. I am not viewing the program through rose-colored glasses, but have intentionally opted to support the kids and coaches 100%, while hoping this year's team can have some early success. I laud GrizFan-24's excellent prospectus and see it as a good analysis of this year's team/program. I personally believe this team has solid defensive potential. It's too early for me to get any indicators of pitching or hitting.

I personally believe this year's pre-season schedule -- particularly the New Orleans Mardi Gras Mambo first-week tourney -- is very well built, with opportunities for early success.

Regarding Montana's program potential: Montana's facility is, hands-down, the best in the Big Sky (conveyed to me verbally by numerous visiting team coaches and parent-fans). Also: Big Sky Conf. stats clearly show that a weekend, 3-game Big Sky series in Missoula is attended by more tix-paying fans than all the other Big Sky games combined for that same weekend. Interpret this as you wish. Go GrizSB.
 
For objectivity purposes, had there not been some extenuating circumstances the last few years, I don't think the staff would have survived last year. I said as much last year, that the staff had some grace built in, but I think we can safely assume that no such grace exists this year. I don't much like speculation, but from what I gather the staff and players are reasonably confident that last year was an absolute aberration.

Time will tell obviously, but I do think the staff emphasis on recruiting athleticism and contact rate will pay dividends offensively. Last year from time-to-time they got themselves out with soft contact, but just from what I saw in the couple fall games I watched online, I think the amount of hard on a line contact was promising albeit against NAIA competition.

I just don't have a sense on pitching as to whether it is going to be improved. I was bullish on the staff improving after last year because there would have been some consistency with Brock and Haegele. That isn't the case now, but Haegele of the two showed tremendous growth last year and I'm at least somewhat optimistic that she has good enough stuff that if she can work ahead and limit traffic that she could see a couple run per game improvement in her ERA. Got the sense that they feel that the two Freshmen are in a better position to come in an complete on day one this year than a year ago. Brinka is sort of the wild card, but it would help the program out tremendously if they can depend on her for consistent innings. If they do, it is scenario where the quantity and quality is better than last year.

I could give two shakes about conference projections, because the sort of nasty secret last year that the margin between 1 and 6 wasn't very wide. ISU overpowered everyone last year, but their pitching wasn't the best. They leaned on their transfer (Schering) for most of their quality innings in conference last year, and have the greatest margin between ceiling and floor of any team in the conference. The lowest floor: Sacramento State. They have good pitching returning and a line up that returns a good number of all-conference performers.

If I had vote I would have gone or what my week #1 power poll would be...
1. Sacramento State
2. Northern Colorado
3. Idaho State
4. Portland State
5. Weber State
6. Montana

Of those bottom three teams, Montana has the most going for it from a breadth and depth perspective. I get that others look at last year and look at their lack of presence on all-conference sheets, and immediately slot them in 6th. They really do have a higher ceiling and maybe a bit higher floor than the rest of the conference suggests, as they literally lost no one of consequence and return their whole lineup. Maybe that is a bid maroon colored, but it should pay dividends offensively and defensively. As I said in another response, for as much as Montana made contact last year, it is mind boggling how unlucky they were. I think that would be the story line for the season if Montana finished say at around 8-10 wins in conference, and it would be because tehy didn't hit .250 for the season. I just wouldn't put them any higher in the until we get sense whether the pitching staff is going to be competitive.

We'll see starting tomorrow whether I am snorting crack or not on my feelings about the squad.
 
Good analysis again, 24. Some random thoughts...
1. -- I'm pretty certain the Griz can be a solid defensive team. At this point, defense is Montana's forte. Senior CF Elise Ontiveros is an outstanding defender with excellent range and gets solid support, though not a lot of range, from Presley Jantzi in RF. Jessica Stanfield in LF is a bit of a question mark... good glove but struggles a bit judging line drives. All three have solid offensive potential.
2 -- The right side of the infield has a high ceiling, in my opinion. Junior Hannah Jablonski at 1B is an outstanding infield defender and fields throws to 1B capably. Last fall I was very impressed with Makena strong at 2B. She moves very well to her left, but I did not get to gather any impressions how she covers shallow field pops.
3. -- The left side of the infield is the least solid of the defensive areas. Junior Grace Hardy has good arm power and accuracy re: throws to 1b and will probably be the starter. Shortstop is the major defensive ? for me. I believe that either soph Chloe Saxton or frosh Riley Peschek will settle in at SS.
4. -- Catcher is another defensive strength. Senior Riley Stockton is All-Conf.capable. A solid receiver, she also has good arm power and accuracy. Jr. Kynzie Mohl is the backup and will probably alternate with Riley when the team plays two games a day. However.... I got a couple looks at frosh Madison Tarrant and I think it might be impossible to keep her off the field. She's an outstanding receiver and has perhaps the strongest arm of the three catchers. I could be wrong, but also wouldn't be surprised to see her get more innings as the season progresses.
5. -- Designated players. Sr Kelly Sweyer should be the returning starter. She has incredible bat power, but often struggles with contact. Mohl, who has possibly the most bat power of any Griz player, should back up Sweyer. I've also heard that transfer Jocelyn Eisen could get some opportunities at pinch hitter and DP. She may also get some opportunities as a sub on the left side of the infield.
6. -- For now, Grace Haegele is the Griz staff ace, since Allie Brock will be out with an injury. Grace has power-pitching stuff, but has struggled with control. What I saw of soph transfer P Emmalyn Brinka and frosh P Rylee Rehbein are two control pitchers capable of hitting corners. Neither can afford to leave pitches up in the zone though. Brinka will probably get the most starts early, but Rehbein has solid potential and tosses some pretty funky junk. Lastly... Helena frosh Nyeala Herndon... She has excellent arm speed, a classic power riser and showed signs of hitting outside corners very well. The perfect scenario for Nyeala would be to bring her along slowly. She has Ace stuff, but it might take her awhile facing D1 hitters to get comfortable on the mound. Frosh receiver Tarrant caught Nyeala in her appearances last fall & handled her riser very well. So... pitching is a huge question mark, but could also be the area where -- if the pitchers "rise" to the occasion, might be catalysts to early success by the Griz.
7. Hitting: I agree with 24. The Griz put the ball into play. Hopefully they can have better success getting some of those low liners through the gaps this year.Go GrizSB.
 
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