Road to the playoffs (final week)

Clinched (4)
Norfolk State
Lehigh
Georgia Southern
Sam Houston State

Other Locks (8)
MSU-Bozeman
Montana
Towson
Maine
Old Dominion
North Dakota State
Northern Iowa
Central Arkansas

The 12 teams listed above are going to be in the playoffs regardless of what happens in the last week. Three more automatic berths will go to winners of one-bid conferences (Big South, Northeast, Ohio Valley). That leaves five more at-large spots for the rest of the field. The following teams will be solidly in by winning their last game, and could still qualify with a loss:
New Hampshire
Illinois State
Wofford
Appalachian State

The rest of these probably need some help to get in as an at-large:
Portland State
James Madison
Florida A&M / Bethune-Cookman (will play each other)
Indiana State
Youngstown State
Georgetown
Furman

As of right now, these would probably be the top five seeds:
1. Sam Houston State
2. MSU-Bozeman
3. North Dakota State
4. Georgia Southern
5. Northern Iowa

As it looks now, the Griz should be seeded with a win in Bozeman, and would probably still be in the top 12 with a loss. Let's just plan on them giving the committee an easy decision by winning the Big Sky next week.

I think GSU will get the # 1 overall seed or possibly MSU if they beat UM. If the Griz win, they will get a 3 or 4. Sam Houston will get a 2 or 3 I think because of a weak strength of schedule.

Think it very unlikely the GSU gets the #1 unless they win their last game.

Hahahaha......not going to beat Bama.

No. 1 seed would probably be MSU if they win, they would have no FCS losses. If MSU loses, it would have to be either GSU or NDSU. They both have 1 FCS loss but play in much more difficult conferences than Sam Houston. Guess only time will tell......

Kodiak said:

Hahahaha......not going to beat Bama.

No. 1 seed would probably be MSU if they win, they would have no FCS losses. If MSU loses, it would have to be either GSU or NDSU. They both have 1 FCS loss but play in much more difficult conferences than Sam Houston. Guess only time will tell......

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I would think MSU and Sam Houston would be the top 2 seeds right now then GSU and NDSU. The fifth seed will be a toss up, but it helps Montana if it is a CAA team instead of UNI

grizindabox said:

Kodiak said:

Hahahaha......not going to beat Bama.

No. 1 seed would probably be MSU if they win, they would have no FCS losses. If MSU loses, it would have to be either GSU or NDSU. They both have 1 FCS loss but play in much more difficult conferences than Sam Houston. Guess only time will tell......

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I would think MSU and Sam Houston would be the top 2 seeds right now then GSU and NDSU. The fifth seed will be a toss up, but it helps Montana if it is a CAA team instead of UNI

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UNI could drop next week's game @ Illinois State. That would help as well. Delaware may also have an outside shot as an At-Large team.

Regardless, UM just needs to take care of the Cats next week. I think MSU would be the # 5 with a loss to the Griz.

grizindabox said:

The fifth seed will be a toss up, but it helps Montana if it is a CAA team instead of UNI

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I agree that the committee will favor giving a 9-2 CAA champion (either ODU, Towson, or Maine) a seed before giving a second seed to the MVFC with the same record.

I see the seeds being (first 4 in no particular order):

-Sam Houston State
-North Dakota State
-Big Sky champion (UM or MSU)
-CAA champion (ODU, Towson, or Maine)

And the 5th seed going to one of the following (in order of likelihood, IMO):
1. Georgia Southern
2. Northern Iowa
3. 2nd CAA team
4. Montana State (if UM takes the auto-bid)
5. Lehigh
6. Big South champ (Liberty or Stony Brook)
7. ....

I think GSU still has a good shot at getting a seed (even with a loss to Alabama to end the season) because they are the SOCON champion, would be 9-2, and have spent the majority of the season ranked in the top 5 in most polls. I really don't think Lehigh or the Big South champ would get a seed but you never know what will happen this next week, so I included them. Also, if MSU loses the Brawl, I doubt they get a seed, either (especially before one of the first three on that list).

I think GSU gets a seed over the CAA champion (Maine or Towsan), seems to be a down year in the CAA. We will have to see. I agree with your other 3 seeds. I also think that MSU will get the 5 seed if they lose to UM this weekend.

As for regional matchups, MSU/NDSU or UM/NDSU will probably be the 1/4 or 2/3 seeds so that if they meet in the semi's it will be a closer trip. GSU/SAM will be the other matched up seeds.

I believe that YSU will make the field with a 7-4 record with 2 wins over playoff teams (S. ILL and NDSU) and will play in the first round against Tenn Tech/EKU out of the Ohio Valley. The winner of that game will get sent to UM (or MSU) for the round of 16.

Kodiak said:

I believe that YSU will make the field with a 7-4 record with 2 wins over playoff teams (S. ILL and NDSU) and will play in the first round against Tenn Tech/EKU out of the Ohio Valley.

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Southern Illinois is not a playoff team, but Youngstown could still slip into the playoffs.

Nice work Polski! :thumb:

AllWeatherFan said:

Kodiak said:

I believe that YSU will make the field with a 7-4 record with 2 wins over playoff teams (S. ILL and NDSU) and will play in the first round against Tenn Tech/EKU out of the Ohio Valley.

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Southern Illinois is not a playoff team, but Youngstown could still slip into the playoffs.

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Yup, I was thinking ILL State. My bad. I still think YSU has a shot with that big W over NDSU.

CAA Conference Finale
As P-Norsk notes in his big table, some conference championships (and auto-bids) are already decided. One or two -- like Griz-Cat -- have come down to one game.

PolskiNorsk said:

Clinched (4)
Norfolk State
Lehigh
Georgia Southern
Sam Houston State

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Several, however, have three or more teams tied for the lead and will come down to the mix of final-game results and then various tie-breakers. (In some worse-case scenarios, the conference might have to go to a second level of tie-breakers to determine the auto-bids). Of the multi-game situations, the CAA is probably the most interesting -- partly because more at-large bids are in the mix.

#8 Towson 8-2 (6-1) at Rhode Island 3-7 (2-5)
#11 Maine 8-2 (6-1) at #12 New Hampshire 7-3 (5-2)
#10 Old Dominion 9-2 (6-2) is Idle

Most of us figure that all these teams except Rhode Island will probably get bids. However, there are a couple of intriguing points.

First off, if Towson wins, as is pretty likely, it doesn’t matter what happens in the other game; they get the championship and auto-bid.

If Towson loses and Maine wins, then Maine is champion and gets the auto-bid. Note that a win by Maine would leave UNH with an 8-4 record. Fortunately for them, one of their losses was to FBS Toledo and none of their games were against D-II teams. (Unlike in the Big sky, they have many nearby choices for scheduling OOC FCS games.)

If both Towson and Maine lose (which means UNH wins), Towson still gets the auto-bid because it owns the tie-breaker over all the other contenders, including ODU. What’s really interesting about this scenario is that the CAA would have four teams with 6-2 conference records, and three of those four would have 8-3 overall records.

I think it is hard to believe an A.D. at GSU would schedule Bama as their last game. They should get a bye and I'm guessing they are going to need it.