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FCS vs FBS, Week One (Set Three)

Most likely upsets?

  • Albany at Buffalo

    Votes: 6 30.0%
  • Miss Valley St at E Michigan

    Votes: 4 20.0%
  • Murray State at Illinois

    Votes: 3 15.0%
  • NAU at Arizona State

    Votes: 2 10.0%
  • Tenn-Martin at Cincinnati

    Votes: 1 5.0%
  • Villanova at Pittsburgh

    Votes: 11 55.0%
  • VMI at Akron

    Votes: 4 20.0%

  • Total voters
    20

IdaGriz01

Well-known member
Have not been many new votes lately on the other polls, so I figure we can post the next set. The choices, as usual, range from (almost) no chance for an upset to -- well -- maybe.

As usual, two choices and you can change your mind later.

Albany was pretty bad last year, but they did play a very tough CAA schedule. FWIW, they return a bunch of starters on offense and defense. The question is if they have the talent to benefit from the added experience. On the other hand, Buffalo was just about as bad in the MAC and lost to some pretty weak teams. This one has some promise.

Mississippi Valley did not win a game last year … ‘nuf said. Of course, Eastern Michigan only won one game and many of their losses were by 20+ points, one was by 30 and another was by 43. So they’re both incredibly bad teams. Who know’s what might happen?

With a 3-8 record, Murray State was obviously a bad FCS team. Their offense scores a lot of points (over 30 ppg), but the defense (obviously) gives up even more. But then Illinois was no powerhouse with its 5-7 record, with one of those wins coming against an FCS team.

Northern Arizona had a pretty good year, and one more win late in the year might have got them into the playoffs. They return a potent offense and get back some injured players on defense. Arizona State’s record was unimpressive (6-7), but they had several very close losses. That included a 1-point loss in their bowl game. Still, an NAU upset, while unlikely, is perhaps not out of the question.

With a 7-4 record, UT-Martin probably just missed getting into the FCS playoffs. And two of their losses were to pretty good FBS teams (Arkansas and #17 Ole Miss). Although they lost a lot of good players to graduation, they feel well covered by experienced backups at most positions. Cincinnati won seven games to get bowl eligible but then got smacked down by San Diego State in their bowl. They’ve also just gone through a big turnover in the staff of assistant coaches (including one replacement brought on board in May).

Villanova definitely had a down year, although they did pull off a nice home upset against Richmond late in the season. They blame the poor showing on the career-ending (college) injury to their stud QB early in the year, and they could be right. They are supposed to have a ton of talent coming off red-shirt years and the team is expected to compete for the CAA title. Pittsburgh had a very good year, even though they did lose their bowl game fairly decisively. But they have some major holes to fill, including on the offensive line and a WR who caught 43% of the completions for the team. The defense has a fair amount of returning talent, but is apparently very thin.

Virginia Military sucked last year, with only 2 wins … although several of the losses were pretty close. The defense returns 9 starters, but the offense is (at best) a work in progress. Meanwhile, Akron had a very good year, including a bowl win. This is apt to get ugly unless a lot of VMI guys step up.
 
Not even one NAU fan has shown up to say they have at least a shot?! Shocking. :eek:

And I know NAU has some fans on here, although we have not seen them for awhile. ;)
 
Why not? NAU with the upset in Tempe.

My car gets vandalized in Tempe by a horde of frosted tip, Ed Hardy shirt wearing frat bros. ASU follows suit by refusing to schedule NAU in football anymore just like they won't schedule NAU in basketball.
 
The 2006 and 2010 games in Tempe were tied ('06) and 7 point deficit ('10) at the start of the 4th quarter. NAU can occasionally hang for a bit vs. ASU/U of A each year but less talent and less depth always catch up with them.
 
MT Jack said:
The 2006 and 2010 games in Tempe were tied ('06) and 7 point deficit ('10) at the start of the 4th quarter. NAU can occasionally hang for a bit vs. ASU/U of A each year but less talent and less depth always catch up with them.
Top talent obviously matters, but the depth is the crusher, in the end. Except for the absolutely elite programs, not every guy out there for an FBS team is more talented, more fit, more [whatever] than the best guys on an FCS team. Trouble is, the FBS backups (and backups of backups) are usually not that big a drop-off from the starters, whereas the guys lower on the FCS depth chart ... well, they are a step down, more often than not. I don't care how good you are, when you go thru three quarters with maybe a play off now and then when the guy across from you gets to rest for a series or more ... you're going to be gassed and/or beat up late in the game.
 
(Bump ... kinda).

Not a lot of votes so far, but I'm a bit surprised at those 3 votes right now for VMI over Akron. :?

I mean, VMI was 2-9 last year in the SoCon, while Akron was 8-5 in the MAC, and won their bowl game (a close one against Utah State, but still ... ).
 
(Bump ... again.)

C'mon, we need more than 20 votes ... you can't all (mostly) think no one on this list has a chance for an upset.
 
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