GRIZ/CUSE preview

IdaGriz01 said:

Word said:

... On offense, I see us taking 40% of our shots from deep, just like every team that plays Syracuse does. Fortunate for us, there's no reason we can't knock them down just like any Big East team. I just hope we get 3-point looks from penetrate-and-kick from Jamar and Cherry to Weisner et al and not "ah what the hell" looks from 25 feet deep.

Click to expand...

Taking 40% of your shots from long range against Syracuse is not, unfortunately, a winning strategy. The problem is: That active 'Cuse zone allows very few uncontested treys, and many opponents shot less that 25% from long range. Coincidentally, in two games (Providence and Seton Hall), the opponents managed just 3 of 18 on threes (16.7%). Overall, Syracuse held opponents to around 30% shooting, and less than that if you exclude games they lost.

As a matter of fact -- as noted on another thread -- in the nine games Syracuse lost, the winning team took only about 26% of their shots from long range. By being very selective, they managed to make 35-40% of their treys. Those opponents made most of their points on (near) layups and mid-range jumpers, after moving the ball to find holes inside the zone.

Click to expand...

Not sure where the 26% figure is coming from? Here are the percentage of threes to overall shots taken in their 9 losses:

40% Temple
47% Nova
30% Pitt
31% UConn
46% Georgetown
45% Marquette
46% Louisville
44% Georgetown
33% Louisville

While Syracuse does a pretty good job contesting threes, the influence a team can have on their opponents 3P% is a bit of a myth and has been debunked. If Montana moves the ball around, takes open looks, there's no reason shooting 40-45% of our shots from deep can't be a winning strategy, as long as it's accompanied by some other things, like rebounding better than usual and getting to the foul line.

Word said:

IdaGriz01 said:

Word said:

... On offense, I see us taking 40% of our shots from deep, just like every team that plays Syracuse does. Fortunate for us, there's no reason we can't knock them down just like any Big East team. I just hope we get 3-point looks from penetrate-and-kick from Jamar and Cherry to Weisner et al and not "ah what the hell" looks from 25 feet deep.

Click to expand...

Taking 40% of your shots from long range against Syracuse is not, unfortunately, a winning strategy. The problem is: That active 'Cuse zone allows very few uncontested treys, and many opponents shot less that 25% from long range. Coincidentally, in two games (Providence and Seton Hall), the opponents managed just 3 of 18 on threes (16.7%). Overall, Syracuse held opponents to around 30% shooting, and less than that if you exclude games they lost.

As a matter of fact -- as noted on another thread -- in the nine games Syracuse lost, the winning team took only about 26% of their shots from long range. By being very selective, they managed to make 35-40% of their treys. Those opponents made most of their points on (near) layups and mid-range jumpers, after moving the ball to find holes inside the zone.

Click to expand...

Not sure where the 26% figure is coming from? Here are the percentage of threes to overall shots taken in their 9 losses:

40% Temple
47% Nova
30% Pitt
31% UConn
46% Georgetown
45% Marquette
46% Louisville
44% Georgetown
33% Louisville

While Syracuse does a pretty good job contesting threes, the influence a team can have on their opponents 3P% is a bit of a myth and has been debunked. If Montana moves the ball around, takes open looks, there's no reason shooting 40-45% of our shots from deep can't be a winning strategy, as long as it's accompanied by some other things, like rebounding better than usual and getting to the foul line.

Click to expand...

Great post. I'd rather have a squared-up shooter taking a three than having guys in the lane throwing up jump hooks or fade-aways any day of the week. In the Weber game we got a little impatient and didn't wait for open looks, or we didn't get enough penetration and kick-outs to open shooters because we waited until the shot clock was running down before we executed our offense.

We're a good shooting team. We need to shoot it confidently from three when we have good looks.

Damn they are so much bigger then us. =/

Word said:

... Not sure where the 26% figure is coming from? ... If Montana moves the ball around, takes open looks, there's no reason shooting 40-45% of our shots from deep can't be a winning strategy, as long as it's accompanied by some other things, like rebounding better than usual and getting to the foul line.

Click to expand...

My bad
The columns in my spreadsheet got muxed up. I thought the 26% looked too low, but spent my time verifying my data entries, rather than checking the (hidden, of course) calculations.

Just out of curiosity, I collected game vs season three-point statistics for 22 opponents Syracuse played this year. Syracuse held their opponents 6% below their season average for treys. As you might expect, the difference was mainly for the OOC opponents, where the discrepancy was very pronounced (-13%). As an extreme example, consider San Diego State (which is in the NCAA tournament with 22) wins. They averaged 32% on their treys this year -- Syracuse held them to 1 of 18 three-pointers. Another: Detroit (which is playing in the NIT) was a pretty good three-shooting, averaging 35% for the season. They were held to 3 of 18 (16.6%).

Overall, it is true that Big East teams did not suffer that much: a drop of a bit over 2% (really negligible). Obviously they’ve had years to get use to the Orangeman zone. BTW, four teams raised that in-conference average quite a bit: Cincinnati, Connecticut, and St. Johns shot better than their averages, while Louisville was about even. Without those four, the rest of the conference dropped almost 5% -- essentially missing one three-pointer they would have made against another opponent.

But a 13% drop for OOC teams means they missed, on average, 2-3 treys they would have made against the rest of the teams on their schedule (assuming they had 20-25 tries). So, as you say, the Griz absolutely must move the ball around to get good shots. They must not let the zone bother them the way it has so many OOC opponents.

AllWeatherFan said:

Word said:

IdaGriz01 said:

Word said:

... On offense, I see us taking 40% of our shots from deep, just like every team that plays Syracuse does. Fortunate for us, there's no reason we can't knock them down just like any Big East team. I just hope we get 3-point looks from penetrate-and-kick from Jamar and Cherry to Weisner et al and not "ah what the hell" looks from 25 feet deep.

Click to expand...

Taking 40% of your shots from long range against Syracuse is not, unfortunately, a winning strategy. The problem is: That active 'Cuse zone allows very few uncontested treys, and many opponents shot less that 25% from long range. Coincidentally, in two games (Providence and Seton Hall), the opponents managed just 3 of 18 on threes (16.7%). Overall, Syracuse held opponents to around 30% shooting, and less than that if you exclude games they lost.

As a matter of fact -- as noted on another thread -- in the nine games Syracuse lost, the winning team took only about 26% of their shots from long range. By being very selective, they managed to make 35-40% of their treys. Those opponents made most of their points on (near) layups and mid-range jumpers, after moving the ball to find holes inside the zone.

Click to expand...

Not sure where the 26% figure is coming from? Here are the percentage of threes to overall shots taken in their 9 losses:

40% Temple
47% Nova
30% Pitt
31% UConn
46% Georgetown
45% Marquette
46% Louisville
44% Georgetown
33% Louisville

While Syracuse does a pretty good job contesting threes, the influence a team can have on their opponents 3P% is a bit of a myth and has been debunked. If Montana moves the ball around, takes open looks, there's no reason shooting 40-45% of our shots from deep can't be a winning strategy, as long as it's accompanied by some other things, like rebounding better than usual and getting to the foul line.

Click to expand...

Great post. I'd rather have a squared-up shooter taking a three than having guys in the lane throwing up jump hooks or fade-aways any day of the week. In the Weber game we got a little impatient and didn't wait for open looks, or we didn't get enough penetration and kick-outs to open shooters because we waited until the shot clock was running down before we executed our offense.

We're a good shooting team. We need to shoot it confidently from three when we have good looks.

Click to expand...

About the only holes in that zone that can be exploited by the 3ball are dead on from the top and freethrow line extended beyond the arc. Their quickness and length allow them to cover almost anything else. The baseline 3 some of our players like to shoot will not be an option. It sure would be nice to have a tall player that could camp out at the high post and consistently knock down the 13-17 footer.

Sent from my ADR6400L using Tapatalk 2

grizfnz said:

... About the only holes in that zone that can be exploited by the 3ball are dead on from the top and free throw line extended beyond the arc. Their quickness and length allow them to cover almost anything else. The baseline 3 some of our players like to shoot will not be an option. It sure would be nice to have a tall player that could camp out at the high post and consistently knock down the 13-17 footer.

Click to expand...

One of the more interesting things I found on GameTracker was their shot charts -- which I reviewed for the nine games the Orangemen lost. Those winning opponents took a lot of shots at foul-shot distance (or somewhat shorter), clustered from one side of the key to the other ... extending perhaps a yard or two off the key. The Pittsburgh loss (65-55 Pitt) is one extreme example, where their mid-range jumpers were clustered inside the key: http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/gametracker/live/NCAAB_20130202_CUSE@PITT
BTW, Pitt did make a few jumpers near the baseline, but not many ... and Louisville hardly tried any. So avoiding baseline attempts sure seems like a good idea.

Kenpom wrote something interesting on his blog about SU's zone and shooting 3's against it.

Link: http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/the_boeheim_exception" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I have a feeling we will see a lot of Kevin Henderson against Syracuse. I hope so, anyway.

IdaGriz01 said:

As you might expect, the difference was mainly for the OOC opponents, where the discrepancy was very pronounced (-13%). As an extreme example, consider San Diego State (which is in the NCAA tournament with 22) wins. They averaged 32% on their treys this year -- Syracuse held them to 1 of 18 three-pointers.

Click to expand...

I wouldn't put too much stock in the San Diego State three point numbers. We played them on an air craft carrier in very windy conditions. Seriously, that game was brutal to watch. CJ Fair, who frankly is our best, most consistent player, took a few jumpers from about 12 feet and I remember watching the ball literally curl about 2 feet to the left or the right due to the wind. It was such a joke of a game (though I'm glad we won).

Also, I love the respect being shown to Southerland, but if you guys are thinking they might put a box and one on him then I think that would be a waste of a defender. He's a great shooter and dangerous scorer, but he's completely one dimensional. If he's not hitting his jumpers, chances are he's not going to be doing much on offense. You'd be better served trying to hound MCW and Triche all game, because as our guards go, so goes Syracuse. For the most part we play as well as that duo plays. If they are having off games, we are going to struggle.

jekelish said:

IdaGriz01 said:

As you might expect, the difference was mainly for the OOC opponents, where the discrepancy was very pronounced (-13%). As an extreme example, consider San Diego State (which is in the NCAA tournament with 22) wins. They averaged 32% on their treys this year -- Syracuse held them to 1 of 18 three-pointers.

Click to expand...

I wouldn't put too much stock in the San Diego State three point numbers. We played them on an air craft carrier in very windy conditions. Seriously, that game was brutal to watch. CJ Fair, who frankly is our best, most consistent player, took a few jumpers from about 12 feet and I remember watching the ball literally curl about 2 feet to the left or the right due to the wind. It was such a joke of a game (though I'm glad we won). ...

Click to expand...

Now that you mention it, I do remember seeing a few highlights of that game. Funny to watch, but it had to be a painful experience for the players ... and everyone else who was there. If they do that again, I hope they have a better "Plan B."

But even discounting that anomaly, the numbers show that the Syracuse zone adds 2-3 misses (assuming 20-25 tries) on treys for teams that are not used to facing it.

CAMBD34 said:

Kenpom wrote something interesting on his blog about SU's zone and shooting 3's against it.

Link: http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/the_boeheim_exception" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Click to expand...

This article is a must-read on Syracuse and 3P%. In short, if you look at tons of data on how conference teams shot vs a specific team, there is no correlation between how teams shot first half of season and how they shot second half of season. Therefore, what 3P% you give up is a little random, might even say based on luck.

Syracuse still forces you to shoot poor 3P%. This is likely due to the shot selection they force you to take, and not because they're better at closing out or are bigger, etc... Lots of opponents get tired mentally against their 2-3 and just start jacking up less than ideal three pointers. But, if we stick to ball movement and penetrate-kick, there's no reason we'd shoot any worse against Syracuse than Idaho St.

Weber St game was a good primer heading into the tourney. They literally give up less threes than anyone in the country and really make you work to get them off. I'm hoping this translates into working extra hard to get good three-point looks against 'Cuse.

Anybody watch the news tonight on 13? tinks in the high post showing the boys how to pivot, look low or kick out quickly for a three. And Weisner and co looked like they were being told to get rid of that fucker quickly...

started to get excited. One thing we know about Tinkle in the recruiting process, he won't back down from any program. He'll give em the best shot they've got...