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BigSky playoff possibilities
- Thread starter Mavman
- Start date
Yes. Every time.Mavman said:
Maybe*
Maybe*
No. Only 6 DI wins.
*These really depend on what happens to the other bubble teams. The bubble is fairly weak, but crowded this season. MSU on a 2-game skid looks bad, and UCD on a 3-game streak looks good. In this situation, I think UCD gets in before MSU, but the Cats may still have a shot.
#15 Fan
Well-known member
uofmman1122 said:
Griz are in regardless
I read the Cats are a maybe, but with a win over SeMo and playoff revenue, they're in
Yea, Davis winning out puts them at like 7 of 8 wins down the stretch with preseason Top 5, they'd be in
No way unless they're up for a final spot against some weak conf team, but that Jax State loss and JSU's topple from the top doesn't help. They win that game and they're in for sure
BozAngelesGriz
Well-known member
Depends on the nature of our losses if we do 0-2 to close the season. Losing bad to Weber at home and dropping the cat game by more than a score or two would likely put us out. Ten years ago that wouldn’t be the case
Here's some real chaos:
Montana beats Weber, but loses to MSU.
Weber also somehow loses to Idaho State to finish 0-2.
EWU wins out.
MSU loses to Davis, but beats us.
Sac loses out to Idaho and UC Davis.
Davis wins out.
Place Team Conf. Total Streak
1. Montana 6-2 9-3 L1
2. Weber State 6-2 8-4 L2
3. Eastern Washington 6-2 7-5 W4
4. Montana State 5-3 8-4 W1
5. UC Davis 5-3 7-5 W3
6. Sacramento State 5-3 7-5 L2
Somehow in this situation, EWU wins a share of the conference title, but still is sweating on the bubble. You could make an argument that all of these teams should be in the playoffs. UM, WSU, and MSU are locks here, and I honestly can't decide which teams (if any!) out of UCD, EWU, and Sac I'd leave out.
Nuts.
Montana beats Weber, but loses to MSU.
Weber also somehow loses to Idaho State to finish 0-2.
EWU wins out.
MSU loses to Davis, but beats us.
Sac loses out to Idaho and UC Davis.
Davis wins out.
Place Team Conf. Total Streak
1. Montana 6-2 9-3 L1
2. Weber State 6-2 8-4 L2
3. Eastern Washington 6-2 7-5 W4
4. Montana State 5-3 8-4 W1
5. UC Davis 5-3 7-5 W3
6. Sacramento State 5-3 7-5 L2
Somehow in this situation, EWU wins a share of the conference title, but still is sweating on the bubble. You could make an argument that all of these teams should be in the playoffs. UM, WSU, and MSU are locks here, and I honestly can't decide which teams (if any!) out of UCD, EWU, and Sac I'd leave out.
Nuts.
We could lose 45-0 both games, and still be in.BozAngelesGriz said:
There are not going to be 14 other at-large teams with a better resume/record than us, even with bombing out the last two weeks.
We are essentially a lock to at least make the field at this point.
uofmman1122 said:
The only way EWU gets in is if they get the AQ, which they wouldn't since UM would have beat both Weber and EWU in this scenario.
Brother Bear
Well-known member
uofmman1122 said:
At least 6 Division I wins is the guideline given to the committee when looking at teams to select. EWU can still get to six Division I wins, but I think being selected as an at-large is a long shot for them at this point. Will depend how their resume stacks up to other teams on the bubble in a few more weeks if they win out.
I think you're right, but if you had told me "EWU will win a share of the conference title, but miss the playoffs", I would not have believed you.grizindabox said:
That said, Weber going 0-2 to finish the year is likely not going to happen, so EWU's conference champion-ship has sailed, at this point.
Someone made a pretty good, in-depth post about the playoff scenario on AGS:Brother Bear said:
So we're likely looking at EWU having to beat out 8-4 Towson (not happening), 7-5 SIU (much better resume than EWU), and likely 9-3 SEMO (not gonna happen).
Brother Bear
Well-known member
If UC Davis wins out, (beating the cats this weekend) and MSU then drops the game the following week in Bozeman... who gets in? Both of them, or just one of them and who?
I would think Weber and Montana are locks at the point. Sacramento State as well. Is the Big Sky going to get just 4 teams in? What about North Dakota (I know they are not in the Big Sky but could they take a spot?) They beat MSU, just about beat Weber St and could finish their season 7-4, with 7 Division I wins.
I would think Weber and Montana are locks at the point. Sacramento State as well. Is the Big Sky going to get just 4 teams in? What about North Dakota (I know they are not in the Big Sky but could they take a spot?) They beat MSU, just about beat Weber St and could finish their season 7-4, with 7 Division I wins.
If Msu lost both games I think No Dak would steal their spot.
Griz have been jinxed by being voted #5 in AGS poll
#5 is 4-7 on the year
As a Griz fan I am very Glad our games against EWU and Davis are in the rearview mirror. Would not want to play either one at this time.
Griz have been jinxed by being voted #5 in AGS poll
#5 is 4-7 on the year
As a Griz fan I am very Glad our games against EWU and Davis are in the rearview mirror. Would not want to play either one at this time.
The Griz are an absolute lock already. It does not matter if they dropped the next two they would be 8-4 and still in the top 15. A top 15 8-4 Griz team is not sitting outside of the playoffs, guaranteed.
If the Cats go 1-1 they are in with 8 wins. If they go 0-2 they are out. They would only have 7 wins with a 2 loss skid and wouldn’t have the SRS rating to help them (basically the Sagarin rating the committee used). At that point, they’d be out of the Top 20 (maybe somewhere between 21-25).
If UC Davis wins out they’d be 7-5 with a good showing against NDSU, a hot streak to end season, and in the Top 20. Committee would put them in.
If EWU wins out they’d only have 6 D1 wins. In a normal 11 game season I still think the committee would give them heavy consideration but this year they would be sitting home
If the Cats go 1-1 they are in with 8 wins. If they go 0-2 they are out. They would only have 7 wins with a 2 loss skid and wouldn’t have the SRS rating to help them (basically the Sagarin rating the committee used). At that point, they’d be out of the Top 20 (maybe somewhere between 21-25).
If UC Davis wins out they’d be 7-5 with a good showing against NDSU, a hot streak to end season, and in the Top 20. Committee would put them in.
If EWU wins out they’d only have 6 D1 wins. In a normal 11 game season I still think the committee would give them heavy consideration but this year they would be sitting home
IdaGriz01
Well-known member
Fascinating scenario ... and, over the years, some strange things have indeed happened. However, remember that that hypothetical record for EWU would actually be 6-5 ... one win being against a D-II. Can't see a 6-5 Big Sky team getting an at-large bid. In fact, I can't really see any 6-win team getting an at-large bid this year, with so many teams playing twelve games. There are 20 teams that already have six or more D-I wins: 8 with seven (or more) and 12 with six. A realistic look at the next games of the 6-win teams suggests that at least half will win at least one more. That right there gives you 14 teams with 7 or more wins to fill all the at-large bid spots.CDAGRIZ said:
Edit: Overlooked "Independent" North Dakota, currently 5-4. They play NoColo and SUU on their home field ... they're practically a lock to finish 7-4. So there's another 7-win team fighting for an at-large bid.
George Ferguson
Well-known member
BozAngelesGriz said:
No. The Griz are a lock, no matter what happens. Do I want them to prove it? No. But they're a lock and a max bid will be submitted for the first round should they not get a seed.
