Grizfan#13
Member
I noticed many people on here saying that it is incredibly difficult to beat the same team twice in one year. Others said it wasn't necessarily difficult but that the odds favor the loser of the regular season game. I wanted to see just how difficult it was or whether this claim was right (Spoiler Alert - it's not). So, I went through the P5 conferences and looked at rematches in the conference championship game between teams that had previously met that year. I did this for all years that a conference has had an official championship game. I then looked at any rematch including non P5 and bowl games to see if that gave any info. Below are the results:
ACC (since 2005):
2007 - VT over BC (BC won regular season game)
2008 - VT over BC (BC won regular season game)
2009 - GT over Clemson (GT won regular season game)*
2011 - Clemson over VT (Clemson won regular season game)
Regular season winner was 2-2
*now vacated but still included in results
Big 10 (since 2011):
2011 - Wisconsin over MSU (MSU won regular season game)
2012 - Wisconsin over Nebraska (Nebraska won regular season game)
Regular season winner was 0-2
Big 12 (1996-2010, 2017):
1999 - Nebraska over UT (UT won regular season game)
2000 - OU over KSU (OU won regular season game)
2001 - Colorado over UT (UT won regular season game)
2002 - OU over Colorado (OU won regular season game)
2005 - UT over Colorado (UT won regular season game)
2007 - OU over Mizzou (OU won regular season game)
2017 - OU over TCU (OU won regular season game)
Regular season winner was 5-2
Pac 12 (since 2011):
2012 - Stanford over UCLA (Stanford won regular season game)
2013 - Stanford over ASU (Stanford won regular season game)
2014 - Oregon over UofA (UofA won regular season game)
2015 - Stanford over USC (Stanford won regular season game)
2017 - USC over Stanford (USC won regular season game)
Regular season winner was 4-1
SEC (since 1992):
1999 - Bama over Florida (Bama won regular season game)
2000 - Florida over Auburn (Florida won regular season game)
2001 - LSU over Tenn (Tenn won regular season game)
2003 - LSU over UGA (LSU won regular season game)
2004 - Auburn over Tenn (Auburn won regular season game)
2010 - Auburn over South Carolina (Auburn won regular season game)
2017 - UGA over Auburn (Auburn won regular season game)
Regular season winner was 5-2
P5 conference championship rematches are 16-9 in favor of the regular season winner
Non P5:
1999 MAC - Marshal over Western Michigan (Marshall won regular season)
2000 MAC - Marshall over Western Michigan (W Mich won regular season)
2003 MAC - Miami (OH) over Bowling Green (Miami won regular season)
2004 MAC - Toledo over Miami (OH) (Miami won regular season)
2005 MAC - Akron over NIU (Akron won regular season)
2006 C-USA - Houston over So Miss (So Miss won regular season)
2007 C-USA - UCF over Tulsa (UCF won regular season)
2012 C-USA - Tulsa over UCF (Tulsa won regular season)
2014 MWC - Boise St over Fresno St (Boise St won regular season)
2016 C-USA - WKU over La Tech (La Tech won regular season)
2016 MWC - SDSU over Wyoming (Wyoming won regular season)
2017 AAC - UCF over Memphis (UCF won regular season)
2017 C-USA - FAU over UNT (FAU won regular season)
2017 MAC - Toledo over Akron (Toledo won regular season)
2017 MWC - Boise St over Fresno St (Fresno St won regular season)
Regular season winner was 9-6
If you include non P5 conferences, the record is 25-15 in favor of the regular season winner. Most places online show 23-14 so I am assuming they don't include the now vacated win by GT, and maybe some of the more recent games?
For bowl games, the winner of the regular season match is only 7-15. I'd venture to guess that the amount of prep time you get before a bowl versus a conference championship game probably accounts for some of this difference.
That being said, overall the winner of a regular season game is 32-30 in the rematch that same year. Essentially a coin flip, but the odds improve when it is a conference championship game.
This year UCF, Washington, Boise State, Appalachian State, Middle Tennessee State, and Texas will try and win their rematches against Memphis, Utah, Fresno State, Louisiana Lafayette, UAB, and OU, respectively.
So now when someone says "it's really hard to beat the same team twice in one season" you can roll your eyes and laugh.
ACC (since 2005):
2007 - VT over BC (BC won regular season game)
2008 - VT over BC (BC won regular season game)
2009 - GT over Clemson (GT won regular season game)*
2011 - Clemson over VT (Clemson won regular season game)
Regular season winner was 2-2
*now vacated but still included in results
Big 10 (since 2011):
2011 - Wisconsin over MSU (MSU won regular season game)
2012 - Wisconsin over Nebraska (Nebraska won regular season game)
Regular season winner was 0-2
Big 12 (1996-2010, 2017):
1999 - Nebraska over UT (UT won regular season game)
2000 - OU over KSU (OU won regular season game)
2001 - Colorado over UT (UT won regular season game)
2002 - OU over Colorado (OU won regular season game)
2005 - UT over Colorado (UT won regular season game)
2007 - OU over Mizzou (OU won regular season game)
2017 - OU over TCU (OU won regular season game)
Regular season winner was 5-2
Pac 12 (since 2011):
2012 - Stanford over UCLA (Stanford won regular season game)
2013 - Stanford over ASU (Stanford won regular season game)
2014 - Oregon over UofA (UofA won regular season game)
2015 - Stanford over USC (Stanford won regular season game)
2017 - USC over Stanford (USC won regular season game)
Regular season winner was 4-1
SEC (since 1992):
1999 - Bama over Florida (Bama won regular season game)
2000 - Florida over Auburn (Florida won regular season game)
2001 - LSU over Tenn (Tenn won regular season game)
2003 - LSU over UGA (LSU won regular season game)
2004 - Auburn over Tenn (Auburn won regular season game)
2010 - Auburn over South Carolina (Auburn won regular season game)
2017 - UGA over Auburn (Auburn won regular season game)
Regular season winner was 5-2
P5 conference championship rematches are 16-9 in favor of the regular season winner
Non P5:
1999 MAC - Marshal over Western Michigan (Marshall won regular season)
2000 MAC - Marshall over Western Michigan (W Mich won regular season)
2003 MAC - Miami (OH) over Bowling Green (Miami won regular season)
2004 MAC - Toledo over Miami (OH) (Miami won regular season)
2005 MAC - Akron over NIU (Akron won regular season)
2006 C-USA - Houston over So Miss (So Miss won regular season)
2007 C-USA - UCF over Tulsa (UCF won regular season)
2012 C-USA - Tulsa over UCF (Tulsa won regular season)
2014 MWC - Boise St over Fresno St (Boise St won regular season)
2016 C-USA - WKU over La Tech (La Tech won regular season)
2016 MWC - SDSU over Wyoming (Wyoming won regular season)
2017 AAC - UCF over Memphis (UCF won regular season)
2017 C-USA - FAU over UNT (FAU won regular season)
2017 MAC - Toledo over Akron (Toledo won regular season)
2017 MWC - Boise St over Fresno St (Fresno St won regular season)
Regular season winner was 9-6
If you include non P5 conferences, the record is 25-15 in favor of the regular season winner. Most places online show 23-14 so I am assuming they don't include the now vacated win by GT, and maybe some of the more recent games?
For bowl games, the winner of the regular season match is only 7-15. I'd venture to guess that the amount of prep time you get before a bowl versus a conference championship game probably accounts for some of this difference.
That being said, overall the winner of a regular season game is 32-30 in the rematch that same year. Essentially a coin flip, but the odds improve when it is a conference championship game.
This year UCF, Washington, Boise State, Appalachian State, Middle Tennessee State, and Texas will try and win their rematches against Memphis, Utah, Fresno State, Louisiana Lafayette, UAB, and OU, respectively.
So now when someone says "it's really hard to beat the same team twice in one season" you can roll your eyes and laugh.