Go SUU

[SDHornet]

Well we blew it. We need to win tonight, I don't see us winning in Flagstaff. I didn't get to watch much of the game due to a prior engagement, but SUU hit almost half of their 3s and we didn't shoot that many, and we didn't make the most of our trips to the foul line. Damn, so close...

 

[EverettGriz]

If the EAGS beat Weber, Sac loses to NAU and Montana beats the Cats, who hosts the tourney?

I'm having a hard time wrap my head around this question, too. Standings before tie-breaker would look like:

1. Montana 1. EWU
3. Sac St. 3. NAU

First tiebreaker rule: Head-to-head. Montana-EWU split, Sac St.-NAU split. So...

Second tiebreaker rule: Head-to-head vs conference opponents in descending order. But this is confusing because first and third are not set yet. If we say Sac is 3rd, EWU wins, if we say NAU is 3rd, Montana wins. Sac is 3rd if Montana is 1st, NAU is 3rd if EWU is 1st.

Mind is blown.

I'm wondering if you just aggregate the teams, e.g. Montana is 1-1 vs NAU and Sac, while EWU is 1-2 vs NAU and Sac. That would be good.

OK, I asked the same ? on the Red Zone and got this response:

"GoldenEagle,
According to Larry Weir after tonight slim Victory over Idaho State, we need Sac State to lose and Montana to loose on Saturday, we will Host. He explained what happened earlier in games that we lost, i.e. our lost to NAU, forgot what else was said, was so happy to get the Victory. Vic Wallace"

So, it looks like UM would host under that scenario.

In my best PR voice:

I've been saying this for 2 weeks now. If sac loses two, it pretty much guarantees that NAU will finish 3rd, as they have the tie break in head to head vs. sac. That gives the title to the GRIZ because they hold the tie break over ewoo if NAU finishes 3rd.

GO GRIZ!!!!!!

 

[EverettGriz]

:lol: :lol: :lol:

:lol: :lol: :lol:

Kad, ya still laughin'??

If so, you might also get a chuckle out of this:








Go NAU!!!

 

[HelenaHandBasket]

If the EAGS beat Weber, Sac loses to NAU and Montana beats the Cats, who hosts the tourney?

I'm having a hard time wrap my head around this question, too. Standings before tie-breaker would look like:

1. Montana 1. EWU
3. Sac St. 3. NAU

First tiebreaker rule: Head-to-head. Montana-EWU split, Sac St.-NAU split. So...

Second tiebreaker rule: Head-to-head vs conference opponents in descending order. But this is confusing because first and third are not set yet. If we say Sac is 3rd, EWU wins, if we say NAU is 3rd, Montana wins. Sac is 3rd if Montana is 1st, NAU is 3rd if EWU is 1st.

Mind is blown.

I'm wondering if you just aggregate the teams, e.g. Montana is 1-1 vs NAU and Sac, while EWU is 1-2 vs NAU and Sac. That would be good.

This is correct

 

[Word]

Updated odds of hosting, Montana now favorites to pull it off:

Montana has a 48% chance of hosting.
(71% chance of win @MSU)x(67% chance of Sac St. loss @NAU)

EWU has a 12% chance of hosting.
(60% chance of win @Weber)x(67% chance of Sac St loss @NAU)x(29% chance of Montana loss @MSU)

Sac St. has a 41% chance of hosting.
33% chance of win @NAU
+
8% chance of: (67% chance of loss @NAU)x(29% chance of Montana loss @MSU)x(40% chance of EWU loss @Weber)

 

[DPGriz]

Updated odds of hosting, Montana now favorites to pull it off:

Montana has a 48% chance of hosting.
(71% chance of win @MSU)x(67% chance of Sac St. loss @NAU)

EWU has a 12% chance of hosting.
(60% chance of win @Weber)x(67% chance of Sac St loss @NAU)x(29% chance of Montana loss @MSU)

Sac St. has a 41% chance of hosting.
33% chance of win @NAU
+
8% chance of: (67% chance of loss @NAU)x(29% chance of Montana loss @MSU)x(40% chance of EWU loss @Weber)

What are the percentages based on?

 

[Swedish Griz]

Either way, we're one step closer to not having to see the conference tournament played at a YMCA....or whatever that place is.

 

[PlayerRep]

Updated odds of hosting, Montana now favorites to pull it off:

Montana has a 48% chance of hosting.
(71% chance of win @MSU)x(67% chance of Sac St. loss @NAU)

EWU has a 12% chance of hosting.
(60% chance of win @Weber)x(67% chance of Sac St loss @NAU)x(29% chance of Montana loss @MSU)

Sac St. has a 41% chance of hosting.
33% chance of win @NAU
+
8% chance of: (67% chance of loss @NAU)x(29% chance of Montana loss @MSU)x(40% chance of EWU loss @Weber)

Thanks, Word. So are you saying that a SS loss at NAU and a UM win at MSU guarantees UM hosting? Nothing else has to occur? Based on your post, I'm re-doing my ticket request today--to put in for my tickets for both men's and women's tourney. When SS beat PSU, I thought UM wasn't going to host, because I didn't think SU had much of a chance to beat SS.

 

[Griz2k]

Either way, we're one step closer to not having to see the conference tournament played at a YMCA....or whatever that place is.

As much as I'd love to see the Griz host the tourney, anywhere but sac st is fine. Not that they wouldn't be deserving, but what an embarrassment to host the big sky tournament in a rec annex.

 

[Griz2k]

Updated odds of hosting, Montana now favorites to pull it off:

Montana has a 48% chance of hosting.
(71% chance of win @MSU)x(67% chance of Sac St. loss @NAU)

EWU has a 12% chance of hosting.
(60% chance of win @Weber)x(67% chance of Sac St loss @NAU)x(29% chance of Montana loss @MSU)

Sac St. has a 41% chance of hosting.
33% chance of win @NAU
+
8% chance of: (67% chance of loss @NAU)x(29% chance of Montana loss @MSU)x(40% chance of EWU loss @Weber)

Thanks, Word. So are you saying that a SS loss at NAU and a UM win at MSU guarantees UM hosting? Nothing else has to occur? Based on your post, I'm re-doing my ticket request today--to put in for my tickets for both men's and women's tourney. When SS beat PSU, I thought UM wasn't going to host, because I didn't think SU had much of a chance to beat SS.

Read that on a Twitter link as well. A Griz win combined with a Sac St loss guarantees UM will host.

 

[Word]

Updated odds of hosting, Montana now favorites to pull it off:

Montana has a 48% chance of hosting.
(71% chance of win @MSU)x(67% chance of Sac St. loss @NAU)

EWU has a 12% chance of hosting.
(60% chance of win @Weber)x(67% chance of Sac St loss @NAU)x(29% chance of Montana loss @MSU)

Sac St. has a 41% chance of hosting.
33% chance of win @NAU
+
8% chance of: (67% chance of loss @NAU)x(29% chance of Montana loss @MSU)x(40% chance of EWU loss @Weber)

What are the percentages based on?

Percentages are based on Ken Pomery prediction model: http://kenpom.com/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Jeff Sagarin predictions are very similar, too.

 

[marceagfan5]

Updated odds of hosting, Montana now favorites to pull it off:

Montana has a 48% chance of hosting.
(71% chance of win @MSU)x(67% chance of Sac St. loss @NAU)

EWU has a 12% chance of hosting.
(60% chance of win @Weber)x(67% chance of Sac St loss @NAU)x(29% chance of Montana loss @MSU)

Sac St. has a 41% chance of hosting.
33% chance of win @NAU
+
8% chance of: (67% chance of loss @NAU)x(29% chance of Montana loss @MSU)x(40% chance of EWU loss @Weber)

Thanks, Word. So are you saying that a SS loss at NAU and a UM win at MSU guarantees UM hosting? Nothing else has to occur? Based on your post, I'm re-doing my ticket request today--to put in for my tickets for both men's and women's tourney. When SS beat PSU, I thought UM wasn't going to host, because I didn't think SU had much of a chance to beat SS.

Read that on a Twitter link as well. A Griz win combined with a Sac St loss guarantees UM will host.

SAC hosts with a win
GRIZ host with a win and Sac loss
EWU hosts with a win and Sac and Griz loss

Not sure who hosts if all 3 lose as there would be a 4 way tie for first...

 

[mtgrizrule]

Updated odds of hosting, Montana now favorites to pull it off:

Montana has a 48% chance of hosting.
(71% chance of win @MSU)x(67% chance of Sac St. loss @NAU)

EWU has a 12% chance of hosting.
(60% chance of win @Weber)x(67% chance of Sac St loss @NAU)x(29% chance of Montana loss @MSU)

Sac St. has a 41% chance of hosting.
33% chance of win @NAU
+
8% chance of: (67% chance of loss @NAU)x(29% chance of Montana loss @MSU)x(40% chance of EWU loss @Weber)

Thanks, Word. So are you saying that a SS loss at NAU and a UM win at MSU guarantees UM hosting? Nothing else has to occur? Based on your post, I'm re-doing my ticket request today--to put in for my tickets for both men's and women's tourney. When SS beat PSU, I thought UM wasn't going to host, because I didn't think SU had much of a chance to beat SS.

Read that on a Twitter link as well. A Griz win combined with a Sac St loss guarantees UM will host.

SAC hosts with a win
GRIZ host with a win and Sac loss
EWU hosts with a win and Sac and Griz loss

Not sure who hosts if all 3 lose as there would be a 4 way tie for first...

Sac State would host if all 3 teams lose.

 

[DPGriz]

Updated odds of hosting, Montana now favorites to pull it off:

Montana has a 48% chance of hosting.
(71% chance of win @MSU)x(67% chance of Sac St. loss @NAU)

EWU has a 12% chance of hosting.
(60% chance of win @Weber)x(67% chance of Sac St loss @NAU)x(29% chance of Montana loss @MSU)

Sac St. has a 41% chance of hosting.
33% chance of win @NAU
+
8% chance of: (67% chance of loss @NAU)x(29% chance of Montana loss @MSU)x(40% chance of EWU loss @Weber)

What are the percentages based on?

Percentages are based on Ken Pomery prediction model: http://kenpom.com/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Jeff Sagarin predictions are very similar, too.

Ah that's what I figured but I couldn't remember his name. Pretty encouraging odds, though it would be nice to control our own destiny.