2024 Grizzly Softball Season Recap
The Grizzly softball team entered the season looking to shake free of the shackles of what was the worst season in Grizzly softball history. The 2023 was marred by injuries to the pitching staff and a vexing offense that couldn't find gaps or string enough hits together to win softball game. The Griz limped in with a league worst 10-37 record and only 6 wins against Division 1 opponents. That included a last place finishing in the Big Sky Conference with a 4-11 record and a brutal 0-2 showing at the Big Sky Conference tournament. Anything would have been an improvement over 2023, literally anything.
The pre-conference stretch was a vast improvement over 2023, when they didn't win their first game until March 10th and had only 2 non-conference D1 wins all year. The Griz won games in every tournament they entered and had more D1 wins in the non-conference slate than they accumulated the whole 2023 season. They entered conference season with 12 wins and a lot of confidence about the ability to improve on their last place finish in 2023. They were getting improved pitching from Freshman Rylee Rehbein, transfer Emalynn Brinka and returner Grace Haegele and it appeared they had a budding star in Rehbein who was among the conference leaders in IP, ERA heading into conference. The offense appeared to have improved over 2023 historical levels of ineptness, and provide a much deep lineup that would press teams.
Until it didn't. The 2024 conference slate was staggeringly awful. A 1-14 record that saw pitching regress and outside of two players offensively the offense was actually worse than 2023 metricly. Here is some comparisons between 2023 and 2024 in conference play.
These are the type regressions that get a coaching staff fired (which is precisely what happened) but every single one of the offensive and pitching primary categories were absolutely a regression from last year but from non-conference season. There are a myriad of explanations as to why this might have happened. Bad luck, bad coaching, inferior talent, better opposition. All reasonable explanations and entirely plausible. Depending on what context or perspective you might embrace, the results were not up to standard (whatever that standard is).
From an analytical perspective there was some suggestion that Rylee Rehbein's non-conference metrics might have been a bit of an outlier, but going from a 4.00 ERA to an 11.00 ERA and being the game 1 starter to being largely ineffective and unused during conference play is a remarkable outcome. Like the vast majority of Grizzly pitchers over the past two years, this seasons version couldn't keep teams off the basepaths. The 2.30 whip this season during conference play was nearly a three quarters of a runner per inning worse than non-conference. Just not good enough for the Division 1 level and you aren't going to have a chance to win games when your spotting teams over 7 runs a game during conference play. Pair that with an offense, that outside of two players (Presley Jantzi and Riley Peschek) was next to non-existent for the conference season. The team averaged about .260 to .280 in the non-conference season and then dipped to an astounding low .215 performance. The team averaged 2.6 in conference and had too little punch and too little presence on the basepaths to scare anyone but NAIA teams (Four of 5 total wins since mid-march).
The result was 2 and Q at the conference tournament. They played a highly competitive game against Sacramento State and had opportunities to win the game late but couldn't must the elusive hit to shock Sacramento State. Weber State saw the pitching staff implode in a 5 inning 11-0 run rule and ended the season. A end of the season that saw improvement in wins from 2023, but not in the areas that mattered. They ended up with fewer wins in conference, and were generally less competitive from a year ago. For that reason alone is why the staff was likely dismissed.
Looking Forward
I've mentioned before that for years the softball program was working with one hand tied behind its back and unless there becomes a huge influx of in-state softball talent, its going to be difficult to navigate a sport that depends so much on equivalency scholarships. Unlike football and for years women's basketball, the numbers just aren't there for Montana high schools to supply the UM with the type of D1 talent for it to be naturally competitive. For Montana to be truly competitively, they've got to find a better compliment of a regional talent that can mix with recruits from softball recruiting meccas such as California and Arizona.
The roster doesn't need to be tossed out, but it does need a serious upgrade in talent. How the new staff does that isn't going to be an easy path to navigate. Mostly because there isn't a lot of money to throw around at this point for next year. The prior staff was super high on the new group they recruited to come in the fall but it is unknown if some or all of them will show up. There was a feeling that at least two of the players might have been day 1 contributors. Pair that with some core players (Jantzi, Peschek, Jablonski) and some younger players that showed some brightspots (Tarrant-C, Rehbein and Herndon- P) there is a foundation to build upon. The new staff is going to have to search high and low to find one or two pitchers capable of providing innings at the D1 level and allow Rehbein and Herndon to find success in positions that doesn't lead to over exposure. Doing that probably is the quickest path to improving the outcomes of the program. Beyond that, they need to find some players with punch or slug offensively. I think you can navigate the college softball level if you can find some slug if you aren't going to steal bases. Clearly that is a model that works at the BSC level as both NC, ISU and PSU have used it the past few years. The program has lacked star offensive players and needs players that create momentum with one swing and puts defenses and pitchers under stress. JC and the transfer market might be the first target, because the HS market for next year is pretty sparse at this point.
There are things that can help bridge the gap and make it vastly easier for Montana to be competitive as a mid-major in college softball. First is they are going to have a real indoor facility in which the program can use during the winter months. A resource that will work not only as a tool develop players but as a recruiting tool. Second, I think there is an avenue where NIL can help change who and where Montana recruits. When your budget it is limited and you have scarce resources, it does limit how you can recruit. Montana has a greater NIL opportunity than the rest of the BSC from a support perspective and the program and the athletic department absolutely needs to find mechanisms to help the softball program out in this regard.
Yet maybe most soberingly, is defining what success is living a bottom tier Division 1 softball conference looks like. Winning seasons aren't always going to be a guarantee but knowing that competiting for conference titles and NCAA appearances is a reasonable expectation. Montana hasn't won the conference regular season title and has just one appearance in the NCAA tournament. The 17 wins wasn't necessarilly an indicator of a terrible season, but it was the 1 win conference that ultimately spelled doom. Montana should and can complete for NCAA tournament births every year. Ignore the record, just focus on putting the team in a position to win BSC titles and win the conference tournament.
The Next Staff:
The next staff is going to have a lot of work to do and it is a crap shoot really if they are going to have the type of pedigree that some might want to run the program. The athletic department is using a hiring service to help facilitate interest, but there is going to be interest because it is a D1 head coaching gig but it might not be from where you'd think. Maybe they'll cajole an assistant from a power 5-ish conference to apply but it may not be necessarily in UM's best interest in hiring someone on CV's.
Here are the characteristics that I think are somewhat essential for Montana going forward:
Anyhow, I'm not claiming that I know precisely what the UM needs in its next coach. Just a perspective.
Thanks for reading.
GF24.
The Grizzly softball team entered the season looking to shake free of the shackles of what was the worst season in Grizzly softball history. The 2023 was marred by injuries to the pitching staff and a vexing offense that couldn't find gaps or string enough hits together to win softball game. The Griz limped in with a league worst 10-37 record and only 6 wins against Division 1 opponents. That included a last place finishing in the Big Sky Conference with a 4-11 record and a brutal 0-2 showing at the Big Sky Conference tournament. Anything would have been an improvement over 2023, literally anything.
The pre-conference stretch was a vast improvement over 2023, when they didn't win their first game until March 10th and had only 2 non-conference D1 wins all year. The Griz won games in every tournament they entered and had more D1 wins in the non-conference slate than they accumulated the whole 2023 season. They entered conference season with 12 wins and a lot of confidence about the ability to improve on their last place finish in 2023. They were getting improved pitching from Freshman Rylee Rehbein, transfer Emalynn Brinka and returner Grace Haegele and it appeared they had a budding star in Rehbein who was among the conference leaders in IP, ERA heading into conference. The offense appeared to have improved over 2023 historical levels of ineptness, and provide a much deep lineup that would press teams.
Until it didn't. The 2024 conference slate was staggeringly awful. A 1-14 record that saw pitching regress and outside of two players offensively the offense was actually worse than 2023 metricly. Here is some comparisons between 2023 and 2024 in conference play.
| Category | 2023 | 2024 | Net Change |
| Hitting Statistics | |||
| Conference Wins | 4 | 1 | -3 |
| Tournament Wins | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Batting Average | .275 | .216 | -.59 |
| Slugging | .370 | .320 | -.50 |
| On Base % | .336 | .292 | -.44 |
| OPS | .706 | .612 | -.94 |
| Runs | 48 | 39 | -9 |
| EBH | 27 (21 2B's, 6HR's) | 23 (16 2B's, 2 3B, 5HR) | -4 |
| RBI's | 43 | 35 | -8 |
| SB | 3 | 2 | -1 |
| Pitching Statistics | |||
| ERA | 5.30 | 8.18 | +2.88 |
| WHIP | 2.04 | 2.39 | +.35 |
| Runs | 101 | 110 | +9 |
| Earned Runs | 73 | 102 | +25 |
| Complete Games | 4 (Zero SO's) | 4 | 0 |
| Hits | 136 | 134 | +2 |
| K's | 46 | 35 | -11 |
| BB | 60 | 74 | +14 |
| HBP | 21 | 14 | +7 |
| Opponent BA | .337 | .354 | +.17 |
These are the type regressions that get a coaching staff fired (which is precisely what happened) but every single one of the offensive and pitching primary categories were absolutely a regression from last year but from non-conference season. There are a myriad of explanations as to why this might have happened. Bad luck, bad coaching, inferior talent, better opposition. All reasonable explanations and entirely plausible. Depending on what context or perspective you might embrace, the results were not up to standard (whatever that standard is).
From an analytical perspective there was some suggestion that Rylee Rehbein's non-conference metrics might have been a bit of an outlier, but going from a 4.00 ERA to an 11.00 ERA and being the game 1 starter to being largely ineffective and unused during conference play is a remarkable outcome. Like the vast majority of Grizzly pitchers over the past two years, this seasons version couldn't keep teams off the basepaths. The 2.30 whip this season during conference play was nearly a three quarters of a runner per inning worse than non-conference. Just not good enough for the Division 1 level and you aren't going to have a chance to win games when your spotting teams over 7 runs a game during conference play. Pair that with an offense, that outside of two players (Presley Jantzi and Riley Peschek) was next to non-existent for the conference season. The team averaged about .260 to .280 in the non-conference season and then dipped to an astounding low .215 performance. The team averaged 2.6 in conference and had too little punch and too little presence on the basepaths to scare anyone but NAIA teams (Four of 5 total wins since mid-march).
The result was 2 and Q at the conference tournament. They played a highly competitive game against Sacramento State and had opportunities to win the game late but couldn't must the elusive hit to shock Sacramento State. Weber State saw the pitching staff implode in a 5 inning 11-0 run rule and ended the season. A end of the season that saw improvement in wins from 2023, but not in the areas that mattered. They ended up with fewer wins in conference, and were generally less competitive from a year ago. For that reason alone is why the staff was likely dismissed.
Looking Forward
I've mentioned before that for years the softball program was working with one hand tied behind its back and unless there becomes a huge influx of in-state softball talent, its going to be difficult to navigate a sport that depends so much on equivalency scholarships. Unlike football and for years women's basketball, the numbers just aren't there for Montana high schools to supply the UM with the type of D1 talent for it to be naturally competitive. For Montana to be truly competitively, they've got to find a better compliment of a regional talent that can mix with recruits from softball recruiting meccas such as California and Arizona.
The roster doesn't need to be tossed out, but it does need a serious upgrade in talent. How the new staff does that isn't going to be an easy path to navigate. Mostly because there isn't a lot of money to throw around at this point for next year. The prior staff was super high on the new group they recruited to come in the fall but it is unknown if some or all of them will show up. There was a feeling that at least two of the players might have been day 1 contributors. Pair that with some core players (Jantzi, Peschek, Jablonski) and some younger players that showed some brightspots (Tarrant-C, Rehbein and Herndon- P) there is a foundation to build upon. The new staff is going to have to search high and low to find one or two pitchers capable of providing innings at the D1 level and allow Rehbein and Herndon to find success in positions that doesn't lead to over exposure. Doing that probably is the quickest path to improving the outcomes of the program. Beyond that, they need to find some players with punch or slug offensively. I think you can navigate the college softball level if you can find some slug if you aren't going to steal bases. Clearly that is a model that works at the BSC level as both NC, ISU and PSU have used it the past few years. The program has lacked star offensive players and needs players that create momentum with one swing and puts defenses and pitchers under stress. JC and the transfer market might be the first target, because the HS market for next year is pretty sparse at this point.
There are things that can help bridge the gap and make it vastly easier for Montana to be competitive as a mid-major in college softball. First is they are going to have a real indoor facility in which the program can use during the winter months. A resource that will work not only as a tool develop players but as a recruiting tool. Second, I think there is an avenue where NIL can help change who and where Montana recruits. When your budget it is limited and you have scarce resources, it does limit how you can recruit. Montana has a greater NIL opportunity than the rest of the BSC from a support perspective and the program and the athletic department absolutely needs to find mechanisms to help the softball program out in this regard.
Yet maybe most soberingly, is defining what success is living a bottom tier Division 1 softball conference looks like. Winning seasons aren't always going to be a guarantee but knowing that competiting for conference titles and NCAA appearances is a reasonable expectation. Montana hasn't won the conference regular season title and has just one appearance in the NCAA tournament. The 17 wins wasn't necessarilly an indicator of a terrible season, but it was the 1 win conference that ultimately spelled doom. Montana should and can complete for NCAA tournament births every year. Ignore the record, just focus on putting the team in a position to win BSC titles and win the conference tournament.
The Next Staff:
The next staff is going to have a lot of work to do and it is a crap shoot really if they are going to have the type of pedigree that some might want to run the program. The athletic department is using a hiring service to help facilitate interest, but there is going to be interest because it is a D1 head coaching gig but it might not be from where you'd think. Maybe they'll cajole an assistant from a power 5-ish conference to apply but it may not be necessarily in UM's best interest in hiring someone on CV's.
Here are the characteristics that I think are somewhat essential for Montana going forward:
- Experience recruiting the PNW. I think it is essential Montana mine this region and be successful while doing it. Helps with WUE qualifications and scholarship equivalencies to make the scholarships go further. There is good HS softball played in Oregon, Washington, Colorado and Utah.
- Assistants from regional MWC would be of interest who have had success in recruiting the region at a high level helps. Boise State, Colorado State, and Nevada have had somewhat similar recruiting foot prints at levels that are more comparable to Montana than say Oregon, UCLA or Arizona.
- Someone who can and has a feel with how to capitalize on NIL because I think this is a potential gateway to putting Montana onto the map w/ college softball.
- Experience in programs w/ strong developmental cultures or building programs including recruiting in California and Arizona. Pinkerton was only here for three years, and Meuchel couldn't sustain that success for any number of reasons, but the program really hasn't had a solid foundation. Coaches with experience in understanding what that looks like at the lower D1 level is going to be essential.
- There are a lot of mid-major programs regionally with consistent success that would be good mimic or find coaches from those trees. San Diego State, Grand Canyon while being in places with strong recruiting advantages, as well as Long Beach State. A DII coach that might garner some interest is Sheryl Gilmore from Western Washington. She's been successful, wildly successful there and might be one of the smartest softball minds in the region. If there is a DII coach I'd take a flier on, it might be her.
- This is where I think you could look at assistants coaches from power 5 schools where emphasis on philosophy and recruiting can move the program in the right direction who've seen coaches build from the ground up. There are several power 5 schools that fit that mold: Oregon, Oklahoma State, Washington, Arkansas.
- Beyond that there might be another logical place to look, Iowa State. Not because that is where Pinkerton is at, but one of his assistants is somewhat of a logical fit. Kate Sinnott is a Great Falls native, and if interested might fit most of the characteristics that I identified above. Has coached in programs with signfiicant development emphasis, worked with Pinkerton since 2019 and understands the need to recruit to schools that aren't always the easiest. I really can't attest if there is actual interest, but if you are looking towards on paper fits, Sinnott might that person.
Anyhow, I'm not claiming that I know precisely what the UM needs in its next coach. Just a perspective.
Thanks for reading.
GF24.
