Semenza

[Ursa Major]

I don't statistically count any field goal that was kicked from the 30 and closer or from the 50 and beyond.

 

[mtgrizfankb]

I think maybe I’d consider going for 2 more often. You just can’t miss the XP, it always finds a way to haunt the decision-making process in-game.

So you want to go for 2? Historically the best 2pt conversion rate average in college football was 47% in the 70's. So he's 12/14 this year from PAT. That's 85.7%. You want to forgo 85% change of 1 point for a 45% chance of 2 points?

LEtS gO fOUr TwO !

Eat something. All this posting while hangry is really starting to annoy me. Bastards.

Montana is 1-1 in two point tries this season.

Were you not complaining recently about us not being able to get 4th and 1? now you want us to convert a 4th and 2 on a more consistent basis than 84%? It's not possible. There is nothing to support that argument. Other than of course... he might miss and extra point once every 7 attempts. There is a reason nobody does that....nobody. It's just not plausible to convert a one play 2 yard conversion at high enough percentage to make it worth while.

 

[bgbigdog]

I think maybe I’d consider going for 2 more often. You just can’t miss the XP, it always finds a way to haunt the decision-making process in-game.

So you want to go for 2? Historically the best 2pt conversion rate average in college football was 47% in the 70's. So he's 12/14 this year from PAT. That's 85.7%. You want to forgo 85% change of 1 point for a 45% chance of 2 points?

LEtS gO fOUr TwO !

Eat something. All this posting while hangry is really starting to annoy me. Bastards.

Montana is 1-1 in two point tries this season.

Were you not complaining recently about us not being able to get 4th and 1? now you want us to convert a 4th and 2 on a more consistent basis than 84%? It's not possible. There is nothing to support that argument. Other than of course... he might miss and extra point once every 7 attempts. There is a reason nobody does that....nobody. It's just not plausible to convert a one play 2 yard conversion at high enough percentage to make it worth while.

You likely need to go back and see who said what. I made one comment during the game this last week:

Why wasn’t that play available last week? Or was it a result of the last few?

You’re right, it’s a scathing rebuke of how badly things hsve gone on 4th down. I said in the post referenced, “more often.” I was sitting in the stands when they pulled the play off @ WIU and Western didn’t have any idea what to do when they stayed in the gate formation and ran a play. Tremendous coaching decision in my mind.

Though now it sounds as if you’re criticizing Bobby for passing on the sure, really 6 of 7, thing. Now every opponent is going to have to account for that possibility or get burned like Western. Or the fake punt in the Drake game - giving your opponent a bunch of additional things to be concerned about is usually a good thing.

Didn’t say every point after opportunity. What’s not plausible is that you’re researching the statistics and making this an issue @ all.

LEtS REmemBeR ITS jUST A GAME. & this is just a f$&king internet free-for-all so what am I saying. Carry on.

 

[horribilisfan8184]

Do the math. 87% on 100 kicks is 87 points. 45% on 100 2 pts is 90 pts. Statistically a dead heat and within 4% margin of error. Much ado about nothing.......

 

[bgbigdog]

Do the math. 87% on 100 kicks is 87 points. 45% on 100 2 pts is 90 pts. Statistically a dead heat and within 4% margin of error. Much ado about nothing.......

It was already that - but thanks did chiming in. How about this recruiting week?

 

[mtgrizfankb]

So you want to go for 2? Historically the best 2pt conversion rate average in college football was 47% in the 70's. So he's 12/14 this year from PAT. That's 85.7%. You want to forgo 85% change of 1 point for a 45% chance of 2 points?

LEtS gO fOUr TwO !

Eat something. All this posting while hangry is really starting to annoy me. Bastards.

Montana is 1-1 in two point tries this season.

Were you not complaining recently about us not being able to get 4th and 1? now you want us to convert a 4th and 2 on a more consistent basis than 84%? It's not possible. There is nothing to support that argument. Other than of course... he might miss and extra point once every 7 attempts. There is a reason nobody does that....nobody. It's just not plausible to convert a one play 2 yard conversion at high enough percentage to make it worth while.

You likely need to go back and see who said what. I made one comment during the game this last week:

Why wasn’t that play available last week? Or was it a result of the last few?

You’re right, it’s a scathing rebuke of how badly things hsve gone on 4th down. I said in the post referenced, “more often.” I was sitting in the stands when they pulled the play off @ WIU and Western didn’t have any idea what to do when they stayed in the gate formation and ran a play. Tremendous coaching decision in my mind.

Though now it sounds as if you’re criticizing Bobby for passing on the sure, really 6 of 7, thing. Now every opponent is going to have to account for that possibility or get burned like Western. Or the fake punt in the Drake game - giving your opponent a bunch of additional things to be concerned about is usually a good thing.

Didn’t say every point after opportunity. What’s not plausible is that you’re researching the statistics and making this an issue @ all.

LEtS REmemBeR ITS jUST A GAME. & this is just a f$&king internet free-for-all so what am I saying. Carry on.

I'm not here to argue. just saying your original post says "Maybe I'd consider going for 2 more often. you just can't miss the XP" Does that not mean that we should forgo trying to get an XP and instead go for 2 "More often" Sure more often than 1 time ever...maybe I can get on board with that. My problem is if you are truly worried about leaving points off the board...as your post suggests. Would you not want to go with the option that has a higher chance of working? So at this point we would need to be 85% confident the 2pt conversion would work. Because the downside is the same no matter if we go for 2 or 1. So in theory...a player/coach or whoever makes the call would want to be 85% sure they would get the two in order to forgo the 85% chance to get one. We could argue that the percentage chance that an unexpected 2pt conversion rate might be higher...as most 2pt conversions are done toward the end of games where it was expected to happen. So there could be some hidden percentages here that a coach could play with. Overall though I wouldn't expect us to go for two more than once every three or four games. Keep it in film like you mentioned and make people plan for an unknown, and you are right, anytime you can make a team spend time doing something they don't normally do with no or little sacrifice on your end. That's a positive. If we are up by two scores or something...it would be nice to throw in there this week or the next. Just to remind those in the upcoming weeks that it is in fact on the table. As for it being a better solution and more reliable than an XP...that I couldn't get on board with.

 

[mtgrizfankb]

Do the math. 87% on 100 kicks is 87 points. 45% on 100 2 pts is 90 pts. Statistically a dead heat and within 4% margin of error. Much ado about nothing.......

If we were just playing for points at the end of the year...sure. When you play a game that you might only score 3 TDs a game. your chance of scoring 3 XP is much greater than getting 2 conversions. You would need to score in very high numbers in order to outweight the odds.

10 TDs and chances to be exact.

87% on 10 kicks = 8 points (since there is no part of a point)
45% on 10 chances= 4 points (once again no half points) but you get double on a conversion. 8 points and you have beat the odds or tied the odds

once again that means you need to score 10 TDs a game and covert 45% on conversions.

 

[PlayerRep]

I don't statistically count any field goal that was kicked from the 30 and closer or from the 50 and beyond.

I don't count anything you post, especially about football.

 

[Ursa Major]

I don't statistically count any field goal that was kicked from the 30 and closer or from the 50 and beyond.

I don't count anything you post, especially about football.

I make it a rule to only read the first three words of any of your posts. Today we agree. :thumb:

 

[AllWeatherFan]

:lol: :lol: :lol:

 

[MTGRZ]

This thread is laaaaaaame. He's fine.