Some Ask a Taboo Question: Is America Overreacting to Coronavirus?

[Grizbeer]

PR thanks for all the great posts and information. Excluding the political posts by some in here this has been a great thread and discussion.

I almost wonder if the thread title here is wrong. I’m not sure I could agree that America over reacted to the virus, for vulnerable groups it is very dangerous. For others it isn’t at all. Rather I think the question is did America pick the wrong tool to attack the pandemic. What if instead of locking down the the entire country we only locked down the vulnerable? My guess is for the cost of 1 week’s economic damage we could have delivered free meals, essentials and medical care to the entire vulnerable population for a year. Of course that would be political suicide to lock everyone over 70 in their home while everyone else roams free, but it certainly would have been cheaper and resulted in fewer overall deaths.

 

[Spanky2]

Beer, I need to cogitate about that. I think you made some good points.

 

[goatcreekgriz]

I'm watching MT, N.D., S.D. and Wyo. Only MT has stay at home for the state. South Falls area may skew things a bit for SD, as it has Sioux Falls metro with a 250,000 population, which is about 1/3 of the state population.

Deaths are 6, 4, 6, 0 (Wyo). Cases are 332, 251, 393 and 222.

Spokane County is 70 miles west of Montana, and tallies 12 deaths with 220 confirmed cases.

 

[Dutch Lane]

I'm watching MT, N.D., S.D. and Wyo. Only MT has stay at home for the state. South Falls area may skew things a bit for SD, as it has Sioux Falls metro with a 250,000 population, which is about 1/3 of the state population.

Deaths are 6, 4, 6, 0 (Wyo). Cases are 332, 251, 393 and 222.

Spokane County is 70 miles west of Montana, and tallies 12 deaths with 220 confirmed cases.

Wait, this thing respects a state’s boarder doesn’t it?

 

[Diesel]

Yesterday when questioned about accuracy of covid-19 deaths or deaths that are attributed to covid-19. Dr. Fauci gave a awkward response.
A quick check NYC has 145 deaths per on average based on 2016-17 numbers. First five days of April 2020 1000 deaths attributed to covid-19 or 200 per day.

Has anyone compared total deaths in NYC to date in 2020 compared to recent years?

NY state has about 6% of total population of USA and NYC is about 40% of the population of NY.

NY has about 50% covid-19 cases and about 50% covid-19 deaths in USA.

From a stat view only...numbers don’t add up. Keep in mind patient zero for USA was in WA.

Could NY and or NYC be attributing too many deaths to corvid-19?

Could more cities start attributing more deaths to covid-19 or more liberally causing model numbers to become inaccurate?

Responses from top officials say they cannot determine corvid-19 numbers because they are missing the “Total number of population exposure “ and without that number they can’t build accurate models for future impact.

Thanks PR for thread, many things to think about.

 

[goatcreekgriz]

Spokane County is 70 miles west of Montana, and tallies 12 deaths with 220 confirmed cases.

Wait, this thing respects a state’s boarder doesn’t it?

No confirmed cases in Wallace or Shoshone County.

 

[PlayerRep]

Yesterday when questioned about accuracy of covid-19 deaths or deaths that are attributed to covid-19. Dr. Fauci gave a awkward response.
A quick check NYC has 145 deaths per on average based on 2016-17 numbers. First five days of April 2020 1000 deaths attributed to covid-19 or 200 per day.

Has anyone compared total deaths in NYC to date in 2020 compared to recent years?

NY state has about 6% of total population of USA and NYC is about 40% of the population of NY.

NY has about 50% covid-19 cases and about 50% covid-19 deaths in USA.

From a stat view only...numbers don’t add up. Keep in mind patient zero for USA was in WA.

Could NY and or NYC be attributing too many deaths to corvid-19?

Could more cities start attributing more deaths to covid-19 or more liberally causing model numbers to become inaccurate?

Responses from top officials say they cannot determine corvid-19 numbers because they are missing the “Total number of population exposure “ and without that number they can’t build accurate models for future impact.

Thanks PR for thread, many things to think about.

A lot of good questions here. Wish I could answer any of them, but I can't.

 

[PlayerRep]

Here's another huge bummer. These people have zero chance of taking shelter and depend on the their care givers, whom I assume are awesome. Special needs people and facilities.

"Fevers were spreading. Within 24 hours, 10 residents were taken to the hospital. Now, little more than two weeks later, 37 of the home’s 46 residents have tested positive for the coronavirus. Two are dead; nine remain hospitalized. At least eight members of the staff have tested positive as well.

“Forgive me if I get emotional,” Mr. McGuire said in an interview, choking up. “People discount people with disabilities and presume they understand them when they don’t know them. They think their lives are not worth the same as yours or mine, and that’s just not true.”

As the coronavirus preys on the most vulnerable, it is taking root in New York’s sprawling network of group homes for people with special needs.

As of Monday, 1,100 of the 140,000 developmentally disabled people monitored by the state had tested positive for the virus, state officials said. One hundred five had died — a rate, far higher than in the general population, that echoes the toll in some nursing homes.

Separately, a study by a large consortium of private service providers found that residents of group homes and similar facilities in New York City and surrounding areas were 5.34 times more likely than the general population to develop Covid-19 and 4.86 times more likely to die from it. What’s more, nearly 10 percent of the homes’ residents were displaying Covid-like symptoms but had not yet been tested,...."

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/08/nyregion/coronavirus-disabilities-group-homes.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

 

[CatGrad-UMGradStu]

Lots of questions. Data five years from now will hopefully show what, and who, was correct. Really difficult for me to question the actions of those much better informed than I am right now. Read the discussions on this site about the Scandanavian countries just a few days ago. Then I read an article by Peterson today in the Lee Montana papers quoting a Montana expert who states there were no cases of spread during the basketball tournaments because 14 days have elapsed.

An article about Sweden: https://www.seattletimes.com/education-lab/washington-state-high-school-seniors-will-get-a-pass-on-certain-graduation-requirements-because-of-coronavirus-closures/

Lee Montana article: https://helenair.com/sports/high-school/basketball/state-official-no-covid-19-cases-associated-with-mhsa-state-basketball-tournaments/article_60cedda1-ab34-5b39-8185-f24799cbe2c9.html#tracking-source=home-top-story-1

 

[Htowngriz]

Yesterday when questioned about accuracy of covid-19 deaths or deaths that are attributed to covid-19. Dr. Fauci gave a awkward response.
A quick check NYC has 145 deaths per on average based on 2016-17 numbers. First five days of April 2020 1000 deaths attributed to covid-19 or 200 per day.

Has anyone compared total deaths in NYC to date in 2020 compared to recent years?

NY state has about 6% of total population of USA and NYC is about 40% of the population of NY.

NY has about 50% covid-19 cases and about 50% covid-19 deaths in USA.

From a stat view only...numbers don’t add up. Keep in mind patient zero for USA was in WA.

Could NY and or NYC be attributing too many deaths to corvid-19?

Could more cities start attributing more deaths to covid-19 or more liberally causing model numbers to become inaccurate?

Responses from top officials say they cannot determine corvid-19 numbers because they are missing the “Total number of population exposure “ and without that number they can’t build accurate models for future impact.

Thanks PR for thread, many things to think about.

I'd say it's more likely deaths are being under-counted, given the woefully inadequate testing that's happening there (and all over the country).

 

[SaskGriz]

Lots of questions. Data five years from now will hopefully show what, and who, was correct. Really difficult for me to question the actions of those much better informed than I am right now. Read the discussions on this site about the Scandanavian countries just a few days ago. Then I read an article by Peterson today in the Lee Montana papers quoting a Montana expert who states there were no cases of spread during the basketball tournaments because 14 days have elapsed.

An article about Sweden: https://www.seattletimes.com/education-lab/washington-state-high-school-seniors-will-get-a-pass-on-certain-graduation-requirements-because-of-coronavirus-closures/

Lee Montana article: https://helenair.com/sports/high-school/basketball/state-official-no-covid-19-cases-associated-with-mhsa-state-basketball-tournaments/article_60cedda1-ab34-5b39-8185-f24799cbe2c9.html#tracking-source=home-top-story-1

Yeah, it's going to be a tough one to look back on because there are many different possible outcomes. Three just off the top of my head.

1. We follow all the guidelines, shut everything down, social distance and the numbers are lower than predicted;
a. This is because we did the right things
b. We were over-reacting and it was never going to be that bad.

2. We relax the guidelines and the numbers stay down, see 1b.

3. We relax the guidelines and a ton of people get it and die. Whoops, shouldn't have done that.

 

[Dutch Lane]

Lots of questions. Data five years from now will hopefully show what, and who, was correct. Really difficult for me to question the actions of those much better informed than I am right now. Read the discussions on this site about the Scandanavian countries just a few days ago. Then I read an article by Peterson today in the Lee Montana papers quoting a Montana expert who states there were no cases of spread during the basketball tournaments because 14 days have elapsed.

An article about Sweden: https://www.seattletimes.com/education-lab/washington-state-high-school-seniors-will-get-a-pass-on-certain-graduation-requirements-because-of-coronavirus-closures/

Lee Montana article: https://helenair.com/sports/high-school/basketball/state-official-no-covid-19-cases-associated-with-mhsa-state-basketball-tournaments/article_60cedda1-ab34-5b39-8185-f24799cbe2c9.html#tracking-source=home-top-story-1

Yeah, it's going to be a tough one to look back on because there are many different possible outcomes. Three just off the top of my head.

1. We follow all the guidelines, shut everything down, social distance and the numbers are lower than predicted;
a. This is because we did the right things
b. We were over-reacting and it was never going to be that bad.

2. We relax the guidelines and the numbers stay down, see 1b.

3. We relax the guidelines and a ton of people get it and die. Whoops, shouldn't have done that.

That’s where the buck stops. Well at least under Truman it did. I’m thinking the play is going to be loosen and hope for best and if the numbers stay down then it was right bet. If if goes the other weigh blame the experts. But he’s got nothing to lose politically imo if that is how this decision will be made. I think he should be conservative and gradual because in the long run it will be less expensive. It looks like the spread is controlled. But what the fuck do I know I’m not an economist damn it.

 

[Dutch Lane]

Yesterday when questioned about accuracy of covid-19 deaths or deaths that are attributed to covid-19. Dr. Fauci gave a awkward response.
A quick check NYC has 145 deaths per on average based on 2016-17 numbers. First five days of April 2020 1000 deaths attributed to covid-19 or 200 per day.

Has anyone compared total deaths in NYC to date in 2020 compared to recent years?

NY state has about 6% of total population of USA and NYC is about 40% of the population of NY.

NY has about 50% covid-19 cases and about 50% covid-19 deaths in USA.

From a stat view only...numbers don’t add up. Keep in mind patient zero for USA was in WA.

Could NY and or NYC be attributing too many deaths to corvid-19?

Could more cities start attributing more deaths to covid-19 or more liberally causing model numbers to become inaccurate?

Responses from top officials say they cannot determine corvid-19 numbers because they are missing the “Total number of population exposure “ and without that number they can’t build accurate models for future impact.

Thanks PR for thread, many things to think about.

A lot of good questions here. Wish I could answer any of them, but I can't.

What is this going to do to contract obligations around the world and the insurance carriers? Do you think a pandemic is like covered under force majeure clauses? Going to be a shit ton of legal work to untangle everything around the world. Starting to get a lot of calls and referrals on pmf’s and child custody and visitation issues with one or the other parent in healthcare field and trying to keep kids away from possible contagion. Doesn’t seem right but what do I know damn it I’m just a lawyer Jim.

 

[EverettGriz]

Yesterday when questioned about accuracy of covid-19 deaths or deaths that are attributed to covid-19. Dr. Fauci gave a awkward response.
A quick check NYC has 145 deaths per on average based on 2016-17 numbers. First five days of April 2020 1000 deaths attributed to covid-19 or 200 per day.

Has anyone compared total deaths in NYC to date in 2020 compared to recent years?

NY state has about 6% of total population of USA and NYC is about 40% of the population of NY.

NY has about 50% covid-19 cases and about 50% covid-19 deaths in USA.

From a stat view only...numbers don’t add up. Keep in mind patient zero for USA was in WA.

Could NY and or NYC be attributing too many deaths to corvid-19?

Could more cities start attributing more deaths to covid-19 or more liberally causing model numbers to become inaccurate?

Responses from top officials say they cannot determine corvid-19 numbers because they are missing the “Total number of population exposure “ and without that number they can’t build accurate models for future impact.

Thanks PR for thread, many things to think about.

A couple points here:

The first KNOWN case was in Washington, but it's extremely unlikely that individual was "patient zero". Every expert agrees the virus was already spreading in at least Washington, California and NYC well before there was a positive test in WA.

Yes, the stats regarding Covid deaths vs every day run of the mill deaths in NYC are available. The daily deaths attributed to Covid currently exceeds the average number of deaths for all other causes combined.

Finally, I guess I don't understand your comment about over-estimating Covid deaths. In order to be counted, there would need to be a positive test. As HT suggests, the death count is likely understated due to lack of viable testing.

 

[grizindabox]

https://www.sfchronicle.com/49ers/annkillion/article/No-49ers-home-games-until-late-November-County-15188177.php

 

[IdaGriz01]

...
Finally, I guess I don't understand your comment about over-estimating Covid deaths. In order to be counted, there would need to be a positive test. As HT suggests, the death count is likely understated due to lack of viable testing.

Nope. Not according to current (as of March 24) guidance from the CDC: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/...w-ICD-code-introduced-for-COVID-19-deaths.pdf

Key provisions:

New ICD code introduced for COVID-19 deaths

What is the new code?
The new ICD code for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is U07.1 …
...
What happens if the terms reported on the death certificate indicate uncertainty?
If the death certificate reports terms such as “probable COVID-19” or “likely COVID-19,” these terms would be assigned the new ICD code.
...
Should “COVID-19” be reported on the death certificate only with a confirmed test?
COVID-19 should be reported on the death certificate for all decedents where the disease caused or is assumed to have caused or contributed to death. Certifiers should include as much detail as possible based on their knowledge of the case, medical records, laboratory testing, etc. If the decedent had other chronic conditions such as COPD or asthma that may have also contributed, these conditions can be reported in Part II.

I bolded the "assumed" statement to emphasize the point that they do not need a test result to assign the COVID-19 death code to the case.

 

[PlayerRep]

...
Finally, I guess I don't understand your comment about over-estimating Covid deaths. In order to be counted, there would need to be a positive test. As HT suggests, the death count is likely understated due to lack of viable testing.

Nope. Not according to current (as of March 24) guidance from the CDC: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/...w-ICD-code-introduced-for-COVID-19-deaths.pdf

Key provisions:

New ICD code introduced for COVID-19 deaths

What is the new code?
The new ICD code for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is U07.1 …
...
What happens if the terms reported on the death certificate indicate uncertainty?
If the death certificate reports terms such as “probable COVID-19” or “likely COVID-19,” these terms would be assigned the new ICD code.
...
Should “COVID-19” be reported on the death certificate only with a confirmed test?
COVID-19 should be reported on the death certificate for all decedents where the disease caused or is assumed to have caused or contributed to death. Certifiers should include as much detail as possible based on their knowledge of the case, medical records, laboratory testing, etc. If the decedent had other chronic conditions such as COPD or asthma that may have also contributed, these conditions can be reported in Part II.

I bolded the "assumed" statement to emphasize the point that they do not need a test result to assign the COVID-19 death code to the case.

I would also bold the "or contributed to" part. The task force people said several days ago that every person thought to have the virus who dies, is attributed to coronavirus, even if they die of something else. The medical people don't take the time to figure out exactly what caused the death. Like, did the virus cause the heart attack or did something else cause the heart attack. Assume they figure it's just time to get on the next patient.

Early on, there were probably some deaths missed and attributed to things like pneumonia.

Thx for doing that research.

 

[mcg]

A lot of good questions here. Wish I could answer any of them, but I can't.

What is this going to do to contract obligations around the world and the insurance carriers? Do you think a pandemic is like covered under force majeure clauses? Going to be a shit ton of legal work to untangle everything around the world. Starting to get a lot of calls and referrals on pmf’s and child custody and visitation issues with one or the other parent in healthcare field and trying to keep kids away from possible contagion. Doesn’t seem right but what do I know damn it I’m just a lawyer Jim.

The ski industry seems to have concluded that their business interruption insurance won't pay.

 

[mcg]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/08/sports/germany-soccer-coronavirus.html?action=click&module=News&pgtype=Homepage

The Bundesliga is working on restarting in early May. The article above indicates that their plan is to play in empty stadiums thru the end of 2020. That really makes me wonder if we will see college football next fall.

 

[Diesel]

Yesterday when questioned about accuracy of covid-19 deaths or deaths that are attributed to covid-19. Dr. Fauci gave a awkward response.
A quick check NYC has 145 deaths per on average based on 2016-17 numbers. First five days of April 2020 1000 deaths attributed to covid-19 or 200 per day.

Has anyone compared total deaths in NYC to date in 2020 compared to recent years?

NY state has about 6% of total population of USA and NYC is about 40% of the population of NY.

NY has about 50% covid-19 cases and about 50% covid-19 deaths in USA.

From a stat view only...numbers don’t add up. Keep in mind patient zero for USA was in WA.

Could NY and or NYC be attributing too many deaths to corvid-19?

Could more cities start attributing more deaths to covid-19 or more liberally causing model numbers to become inaccurate?

Responses from top officials say they cannot determine corvid-19 numbers because they are missing the “Total number of population exposure “ and without that number they can’t build accurate models for future impact.

Thanks PR for thread, many things to think about.

A couple points here:

The first KNOWN case was in Washington, but it's extremely unlikely that individual was "patient zero". Every expert agrees the virus was already spreading in at least Washington, California and NYC well before there was a positive test in WA.

Yes, the stats regarding Covid deaths vs every day run of the mill deaths in NYC are available. The daily deaths attributed to Covid currently exceeds the average number of deaths for all other causes combined.

Finally, I guess I don't understand your comment about over-estimating Covid deaths. In order to be counted, there would need to be a positive test. As HT suggests, the death count is likely understated due to lack of viable testing.

EverettGriz

CatGrad has quote on deaths and how to attribute cause of death and question of accuracy in categorizing cause of death. Today there are published state by state stats. NY and NYC covid-19 are very high in total cases and percentage of deaths per cases known compared to the rest of the USA and rest of individual states. World wide numbers are in question because of certain countries not recording accurately. There are other individual country numbers to compare also, for instance Italy is currently reviewing covid-19 deaths and how they categorized cause of death due to their high numbers compared to other European countries.
One reg flag from my personal view is how NY and NYC numbers are not consistent with the rest of the USA numbers. I have no idea why and curious to how things work out.
It is great to see different points of view and current numbers as they become availible.