IdaGriz01
Well-known member
I tend to agree, as noted in a previous posting:Stop_HammerTime69 said:Gut feeling, but in terms of programs, the FCS has declined since the 90s. However, in terms of on-field performance, the FCS is much better.
With the thought of overall improvement at the top, I got to thinking about some stat that might show such an improvement. So I wondered if the frequency of upsets of FBS teams by FCS opponents might work. After all, if the quality of FCS athletes and their teams was really better, perhaps we’d see more upsets. To prove that, of course, we’d need more numbers … which I really didn’t want to dig out for myself. But a search turned up someone who had already done the numbers … at least through 2012.IdaGriz01 said:As suggested before, I totally agree that the overall playing quality of the best teams has improved greatly ... think about how many more drop-downs there are now compared to past years. In my view, the problem is that the process has only made the good teams better and mostly done nothing for the weaker programs. (What kid would want to drop down to a crappy program?)PlayerRep said:While I would have to look more, you may be right that a lot of new teams have been lunch meat, or too many of them. However, I think the overall quality of the rest of the teams has improved generally. You and I may be measuring things differently. My measure is the number of good teams and conferences in FCS and over all strength of the better teams, not the percentage.
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And, while I do use the "eye test" to judge a "quality" team, I prefer long-term numbers to judge the overall quality of a program.
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But, I have to say (if his numbers are accurate), we have not seen a dramatic increase in the relative number of upsets. Updating the list (generally 100-120 games):
2013 … 16 upsets
2014 … only 8 upsets
2015 … 9 upsets
2016 … 10 upsets in 123 games.
In fact, three things stand out from his graph and the updated stats. First, the percentage of upsets actually looked better before the big 1-AA/FCS expansion in 1993-1995. Many of those earlier years show quite a few losses by the FBS team. (That makes me a bit uneasy about the compilers methodology, BTW, since the 16 upsets in 2013 was touted as a “record” number. Perhaps “FootballGeography” was a bit shaky on who was FBS vs 1-AA back then.) The more recent numbers seem pretty reasonable.
Anyway, the second feature that stands out is how the number of such matchups dropped drastically in the 1990s. Which leads to point #3: Despite the conferences that have banned or discouraged such matchups, the number has risen pretty steadily since 1997.
Getting back to the original point: The number of upsets does not really support the notion that the overall quality of FCS football has improved. Perhaps it has ... but not enough to produce more upsets.
Beyond that, my guess -- and it’s just a guess -- is that the increased number of games played involves more weak-sister FCS teams. The good teams are still getting the same “share” of upsets, but $$$ games by weak-a** teams just add to the total of FCS losses.