Go For Two

[UMGriz75]

But, I also think he has settled into the job, has a better feel for the players, and now has a complete cycle with his coaches. For these reasons, I think he bends the curve on analytics this season...he goes for it far more than many will be comfortable with. I also think his strategy will pay off ----with plenty of drama.

The statisticians that have looked at collegiate football fourth downs surprised themselves. Naturally, there is a chart. The 4th down should be used aggressively. Stitt's a stats guy, and I'd bet he does it.

http://blog.minitab.com/blog/the-statistics-game/going-for-it-on-4th-down-do-the-statistics-say-its-a-gamble

 

[Fat Bruno]

Over, if only because Semore won't orchestrate a chorus of pouting amongst the defense guys.

 

[bgbigdog]

But, I also think he has settled into the job, has a better feel for the players, and now has a complete cycle with his coaches. For these reasons, I think he bends the curve on analytics this season...he goes for it far more than many will be comfortable with. I also think his strategy will pay off ----with plenty of drama.

The statisticians that have looked at collegiate football fourth downs surprised themselves. Naturally, there is a chart. The 4th down should be used aggressively. Stitt's a stats guy, and I'd bet he does it.

http://blog.minitab.com/blog/the-statistics-game/going-for-it-on-4th-down-do-the-statistics-say-its-a-gamble

Two posts prior.

 

[UMGriz75]

Two posts prior.

I was working on the page, getting the screen capture, and interrupted by three phone calls. I had not updated the page to see your post when I clicked the "submit" button. Then I saw it on the refresh and thought, well, great minds .... Sorry.

 

[Fat Bruno]

"Clothes make the man. Naked people have little or no influence on society."

Illogical. They could have if only they were allowed to go naked ... though much of it would be negative.

 

[bgbigdog]

"Clothes make the man. Naked people have little or no influence on society."

Illogical. They could have if only they were allowed to go naked ... though much of it would be negative.

Fat Bruno takes on the great Mark Twain. Here's how that would go.

I thoroughly disapprove of duels. If a man should challenge me, I would take him kindly and forgivingly by the hand and lead him to a quiet place and kill him.

 

[jodcon]

"Clothes make the man. Naked people have little or no influence on society."

Illogical. They could have if only they were allowed to go naked ... though much of it would be negative.

Fat Bruno takes on the great Mark Twain. Here's how that would go.

I thoroughly disapprove of duels. If a man should challenge me, I would take him kindly and forgivingly by the hand and lead him to a quiet place and kill him.

And would one one or both of them be naked? I'm disturbed with either answer.

 

[bgbigdog]

"Clothes make the man. Naked people have little or no influence on society."

Illogical. They could have if only they were allowed to go naked ... though much of it would be negative.

Fat Bruno takes on the great Mark Twain. Here's how that would go.

I thoroughly disapprove of duels. If a man should challenge me, I would take him kindly and forgivingly by the hand and lead him to a quiet place and kill him.

And would one one or both of them be naked? I'm disturbed with either answer.

It is by the goodness of God that in our country we have those three unspeakably precious things: freedom of speech, freedom of conscience, and the prudence never to practice either of them.

 

[Fat Bruno]

There would be few duels in a naked society. In moments of stark fear, even when thinly disguised by bravado, the family jewels are likely to shrink considerably, and a man always likes to appear at his best ... especially in such "manly" situations, or just prior to death as it is his last opportunity to make a good impression.

 

[UMGriz75]

A team's success rate in red zone opportunities might be instructive in considering whether to go for two. Stitt refuses to use a tight end and has small RBs. He has yet to show he can get the ball into the endzone from the three with any consistency. I go with even a weak kicker.

Well, that was one of our very strong points defensively last year, even playing fully clothed, and ranked 24 among FCS schools, and ranked 43rd nationally in offense, which isn't horrible at all nationally, but its interesting how the Big Sky ranked overall on offense, where UM is just "middling."

 

[kemajic]

A team's success rate in red zone opportunities might be instructive in considering whether to go for two. Stitt refuses to use a tight end and has small RBs. He has yet to show he can get the ball into the endzone from the three with any consistency. I go with even a weak kicker.

Calhoun did just that several times in the latter part of the season. But don't let the facts get in the way of your agenda...

So you think the facts tell you that we were just fine in the red zone. We played against horrific defenses "in the latter part of the season." If you want facts, check into the overall performance in the red zone, particularly against decent defenses. Bloody awful. Those facts certainly get in the way of your narrative.

 

[Grisly Fan]

22 field goal attempts inside the Red Zone? The next closest was 16 and the rest were about half or even much less. This simply has to be one of the areas that Stitt has to show significant improvement. His offense has much to prove and fewer excuses this year.

 

[Atlanta Griz1]

Over/under on percentage of time Stitt goes for it on fourth down relative to last season?

I'll take the over.

Over/under on percentage of time Stitt goes for two relative to last season?

I'll take the over.

Thoughts?

I'll take the "more-than-he-should-if-he-cared-about-special-teams".

just a thought.....going for it on 4th down.....or going for two.....doesn't mean he doesn't care about special teams....

This. He is a Division 1 football coach; I think he has a grasp on the three phases of the game. I say this knowing we have H U G E questions ref our kicker. :lol:

But, I also think he has settled into the job, has a better feel for the players, and now has a complete cycle with his coaches. For these reasons, I think he bends the curve on analytics this season...he goes for it far more than many will be comfortable with. I also think his strategy will pay off ----with plenty of drama.

No. He is a career Div. II football coach trying to convince knowledgeable football people that he can be a good Div. I football coach, with very mixed results so far. :thumb:

 

[Atlanta Griz1]

I'll take the "more-than-he-should-if-he-cared-about-special-teams".

just a thought.....going for it on 4th down.....or going for two.....doesn't mean he doesn't care about special teams....

This. He is a Division 1 football coach; I think he has a grasp on the three phases of the game. I say this knowing we have H U G E questions ref our kicker. :lol:

But, I also think he has settled into the job, has a better feel for the players, and now has a complete cycle with his coaches. For these reasons, I think he bends the curve on analytics this season...he goes for it far more than many will be comfortable with. I also think his strategy will pay off ----with plenty of drama.

I agree with this. Plus last year, he tested the waters a bit early and had some failures. I personally think some of this was due to our smaller offensive line and the inability to get a push for two or three yards. It sounds like all of these guys are 300+ pounds now and we should be able to get those yards we need it. So my gut says he will try this more than last year

Another "300 lbs. equals a successful running game" fan. Some of you just don't get it.

 

[Bloomberg75]

I'll take the "more-than-he-should-if-he-cared-about-special-teams".

just a thought.....going for it on 4th down.....or going for two.....doesn't mean he doesn't care about special teams....

This. He is a Division 1 football coach; I think he has a grasp on the three phases of the game. I say this knowing we have H U G E questions ref our kicker. :lol:

But, I also think he has settled into the job, has a better feel for the players, and now has a complete cycle with his coaches. For these reasons, I think he bends the curve on analytics this season...he goes for it far more than many will be comfortable with. I also think his strategy will pay off ----with plenty of drama.

No. He is a career Div. II football coach trying to convince knowledgeable football people that he can be a good Div. I football coach, with very mixed results so far. :thumb:

Nailed it. There are no career D2 coaches that went on to have success at the FCS level. :roll:

 

[Sam A. Blitz]

just a thought.....going for it on 4th down.....or going for two.....doesn't mean he doesn't care about special teams....

This. He is a Division 1 football coach; I think he has a grasp on the three phases of the game. I say this knowing we have H U G E questions ref our kicker. :lol:

But, I also think he has settled into the job, has a better feel for the players, and now has a complete cycle with his coaches. For these reasons, I think he bends the curve on analytics this season...he goes for it far more than many will be comfortable with. I also think his strategy will pay off ----with plenty of drama.

I agree with this. Plus last year, he tested the waters a bit early and had some failures. I personally think some of this was due to our smaller offensive line and the inability to get a push for two or three yards. It sounds like all of these guys are 300+ pounds now and we should be able to get those yards we need it. So my gut says he will try this more than last year

Another "300 lbs. equals a successful running game" fan. Some of you just don't get it.

Nice misquote. He never said it equated a better running game...

I'll say that it helps though. Having bigger OL on short yardage situations absolutely does matter. I'll also point out that an OL putting on 15 to 20 pounds of muscle is a big deal. Your right in that it doesn't make them anymore skilled, but it does do a lot for their confidence. On the OL, when you are matching up against the same DL the entire game, it is a big deal to have more of an edge in strength and size, without sacrificing athleticism and agility. If it didn't matter, we'd see more OL with 260# linemen.

 

[HookedonGriz]

just a thought.....going for it on 4th down.....or going for two.....doesn't mean he doesn't care about special teams....

This. He is a Division 1 football coach; I think he has a grasp on the three phases of the game. I say this knowing we have H U G E questions ref our kicker. :lol:

But, I also think he has settled into the job, has a better feel for the players, and now has a complete cycle with his coaches. For these reasons, I think he bends the curve on analytics this season...he goes for it far more than many will be comfortable with. I also think his strategy will pay off ----with plenty of drama.

I agree with this. Plus last year, he tested the waters a bit early and had some failures. I personally think some of this was due to our smaller offensive line and the inability to get a push for two or three yards. It sounds like all of these guys are 300+ pounds now and we should be able to get those yards we need it. So my gut says he will try this more than last year

Another "300 lbs. equals a successful running game" fan. Some of you just don't get it.

You hate when people misquote you so please don't do it to me. I didn't say it would help the run game. I said it may give coach more confidence to go for it on 4th and short knowing they can get a better push.

 

[kemajic]

You hate when people misquote you so please don't do it to me. I didn't say it would help the run game. I said it may give coach more confidence to go for it on 4th and short knowing they can get a better push.

I have yet to see a lack of confidence as one of Stitt's shortcomings.

 

[Atlanta Griz1]

This. He is a Division 1 football coach; I think he has a grasp on the three phases of the game. I say this knowing we have H U G E questions ref our kicker. :lol:

But, I also think he has settled into the job, has a better feel for the players, and now has a complete cycle with his coaches. For these reasons, I think he bends the curve on analytics this season...he goes for it far more than many will be comfortable with. I also think his strategy will pay off ----with plenty of drama.

I agree with this. Plus last year, he tested the waters a bit early and had some failures. I personally think some of this was due to our smaller offensive line and the inability to get a push for two or three yards. It sounds like all of these guys are 300+ pounds now and we should be able to get those yards we need it. So my gut says he will try this more than last year

Another "300 lbs. equals a successful running game" fan. Some of you just don't get it.

You hate when people misquote you so please don't do it to me. I didn't say it would help the run game. I said it may give coach more confidence to go for it on 4th and short knowing they can get a better push.

You are right. Sorry I mis-quoted you. I just get tired of posters who think that being 300+ lbs. equals being good. Hell, most NAIA teams have a couple of 300 lb. O-linemen. All of bottom-dweller northern Colorado's O-linemen are 300+ lbs. And, we know they aren't any good. The best O-linemen have quickness, long arms, and good footwork. Size is down the list and highly-overrated.

 

[Atlanta Griz1]

just a thought.....going for it on 4th down.....or going for two.....doesn't mean he doesn't care about special teams....

This. He is a Division 1 football coach; I think he has a grasp on the three phases of the game. I say this knowing we have H U G E questions ref our kicker. :lol:

But, I also think he has settled into the job, has a better feel for the players, and now has a complete cycle with his coaches. For these reasons, I think he bends the curve on analytics this season...he goes for it far more than many will be comfortable with. I also think his strategy will pay off ----with plenty of drama.

No. He is a career Div. II football coach trying to convince knowledgeable football people that he can be a good Div. I football coach, with very mixed results so far. :thumb:

Nailed it. There are no career D2 coaches that went on to have success at the FCS level. :roll:

Name one, and don't use Joe Glenn as your example. He was only at n. Colorado for a few years, and had a long history as a Division I assistant coach before that. He was far from a "career Div. II coach".