GRIZ AT VIKINGS GAME THREAD

[HookedonGriz]

You guys are ranking cats too high. They just got beat by 19 two games in a row when they finally had to face some competition. I'm not so sure they are in the top 5 in conference. I am a little bias though as I hate the Cats...all day....every day

 

[sacstateman]

I guess we'll forget about the EAGS win over the vikings when the vikings were at full strength.

Nobody is forgetting about it. I watch a lot of college basketball. My honest opinion of EWU, like much of the Big Sky, they have yet to find consistency. One week they look great, the next they are questionable, at best. They remind me a lot of the GRIZ the last few years. They are capable of beating the best in the conference, but also capable of struggling with teams, they should not be struggling against. I honestly feel, right now EWU isn't in the Top 5 in the conference. They are in the middle of the pack. Sweeping the 2 road trips the GRIZ have is damn impressive. 2 more difficult road trips (EWU/Idaho and UND/UNC) will be a challenge for the GRIZ. If they can split those games, I will be very encouraged as for the potential in this year's GRIZ.

I'll be more than happy to give EWU credit, or any team credit, upon teams earning that credit. EWU has some tough work ahead of them for me to give them that credit. They certainly don't strike me as being as good as the EWU teams of the last few seasons. There is still a lot of season left. We shall see how everything shakes out.

I agree with some of what you posted here. It still is early in the season and the EAGS are playing without two starters. They are inconsistent, and yes I think they can beat anyone in the league. So if they are not top five in the league, who do you put above them?

I will certainly give UM credit and eat crow if they continue to win.

My Top 5 (posted in another thread too): GRIZ, PSU, MSU, WSU, and Idaho. EWU, UNC, and ISU even for the next 3 spots. I'm more sold on recent history with EWU than the others not in the top 5.

If those are your picks, I feel better about our chances (very slim)....we have beaten MSU, PSU and lost to Idaho by 1 at their place and we were leading you guys at halftime, haven't played Weber yet but they really haven't looked unbeatable either....I guess we aren't as bad as I thought (and we have played the whole season without our All Big Sky point guard and his backup)...

 

[IdaGriz01]

... In the end the only thing that matters is winning the conference tourney, although if the Griz get by conference with 0 (very unlikely), 1 (not likely), or two losses (decent chance) the griz maybe still get an at large. I know this sounds ridiculous but our conference has done well against some perennial NCAA tourney teams and maybe this year the Big Sky gets a little more respect than usual.

The only at large we get if we don't win the conference tourney, even with your scenario, would be NIT at best, but likely CIT or CBI. I'm sorry, I just don't believe it will happen. When was the last time the BSC ever got an at large to the NCAA tourney?

Griz would almost have to go undefeated the entire season to earn an at large from the big sky.

Yep, an at-large bid is extremely unlikely (much as I would love the idea). Barring a major change in how the committees hands out bids, the only way any Big Sky team gets a bid to the Big Dance is to win the conference tourney.

Since 2012, no conference with an RPI/BPI rank worse than #10-12 has gotten more than one bid to the NCAA championship tournament. Even before that, it was very unlikely. Back in 2012, the Sun Belt was ranked #15 RPI and #20 BPI. Middle Tennessee State, after losing in the conference championship game, did get an NCAA bid. It certainly helped that their record was 28-5 at that point, and their team RPI rank was #28.
In 2011, the Metro Atlantic Conference was ranked #18 RPI and #20 BPI. Iona lost in the conference tourney, giving them a record of 25-7. They got a bid anyway, probably because their team RPI rank was #43. (And, if I’m not mistaken, the pundits had “fallen in love” with Iona as a Cinderella possibility.)

Conversely, there have been four cases where teams won 27 games and still did not get an NCAA bid. All were 27-6 after the conference tourney: Monmouth in 2016, Colorado State* in 2014, and Drexel and Oral Robert† in 2011. Three of the four had team RPI ranks of under 50, and Drexel was at #70. (They did all go to the NIT, FWIW.)
* CSU had 26 D-I wins. † OR had only 24 D-I wins.

Big Sky is currently riding in the 18-21 range as a conference for RPI and BPI. So, while it’s not an impossibility, the chances of an at-large bid are pretty, pretty slim for any BSC team.

If the Griz win out in conference, their record would be 25-5, 23-5 against D-I opponents. If they win the tourney, then there would be no problem. But … if they go 2-1, they’d end up 25-6 versus D-I. Right now, UM is ranked #123 in RPI and #133 for BPI. Playing only Big Sky teams the rest of the way, even if they win all but one game, how much can the Griz “move the needle” on their RPI/BPI? Probably not enough. Conceivably, given some of the teams remaining on the schedule, the Montana RPI/BPI rank could get worse.

So, an at-large bid is not an impossibility, but it’s pretty damned unlikely. Just win, baby!

 

[twentythreeOh4]

As for the EAGS they played the vandals without two starters and blew an early lead to a good team. The two best teams in the BSC played in Cheney last night.

I must say I do agree with your assessment. Had we had a healthy Orme and Hollins, the game may have turned out differently. That said (and having watched EWU and Idaho last week), I'd have to disagree with your statement. The two best teams in the conference played today in Portland.

I guess we'll forget about the EAGS win over the vikings when the vikings were at full strength.

Apparently you didn’t hear that There is really no major dropoff from the starters to the reserves on the Viks team. It was a nice home win, but I think it will be a different story when you go to Portland. Wouldn’t be surprised if you dropped the game at SAC also.

 

[cmtgrizzly]

... In the end the only thing that matters is winning the conference tourney, although if the Griz get by conference with 0 (very unlikely), 1 (not likely), or two losses (decent chance) the griz maybe still get an at large. I know this sounds ridiculous but our conference has done well against some perennial NCAA tourney teams and maybe this year the Big Sky gets a little more respect than usual.

The only at large we get if we don't win the conference tourney, even with your scenario, would be NIT at best, but likely CIT or CBI. I'm sorry, I just don't believe it will happen. When was the last time the BSC ever got an at large to the NCAA tourney?

Griz would almost have to go undefeated the entire season to earn an at large from the big sky.

Yep, an at-large bid is extremely unlikely (much as I would love the idea). Barring a major change in how the committees hands out bids, the only way any Big Sky team gets a bid to the Big Dance is to win the conference tourney.

Since 2012, no conference with an RPI/BPI rank worse than #10-12 has gotten more than one bid to the NCAA championship tournament. Even before that, it was very unlikely. Back in 2012, the Sun Belt was ranked #15 RPI and #20 BPI. Middle Tennessee State, after losing in the conference championship game, did get an NCAA bid. It certainly helped that their record was 28-5 at that point, and their team RPI rank was #28.
In 2011, the Metro Atlantic Conference was ranked #18 RPI and #20 BPI. Iona lost in the conference tourney, giving them a record of 25-7. They got a bid anyway, probably because their team RPI rank was #43. (And, if I’m not mistaken, the pundits had “fallen in love” with Iona as a Cinderella possibility.)

Conversely, there have been four cases where teams won 27 games and still did not get an NCAA bid. All were 27-6 after the conference tourney: Monmouth in 2016, Colorado State* in 2014, and Drexel and Oral Robert† in 2011. Three of the four had team RPI ranks of under 50, and Drexel was at #70. (They did all go to the NIT, FWIW.)
* CSU had 26 D-I wins. † OR had only 24 D-I wins.

Big Sky is currently riding in the 18-21 range as a conference for RPI and BPI. So, while it’s not an impossibility, the chances of an at-large bid are pretty, pretty slim for any BSC team.

If the Griz win out in conference, their record would be 25-5, 23-5 against D-I opponents. If they win the tourney, then there would be no problem. But … if they go 2-1, they’d end up 25-6 versus D-I. Right now, UM is ranked #123 in RPI and #133 for BPI. Playing only Big Sky teams the rest of the way, even if they win all but one game, how much can the Griz “move the needle” on their RPI/BPI? Probably not enough. Conceivably, given some of the teams remaining on the schedule, the Montana RPI/BPI rank could get worse.

So, an at-large bid is not an impossibility, but it’s pretty damned unlikely. Just win, baby!

Yeah I know our only realistic way into the NCAA tournament is to win the BSC tournament but my point is that maybe we have "turned the corner" and will have a stellar year, win the BSC and at least have a respectable NCAA showing. We have to have years like that and more than one if we will move toward being a consistent top mid-major team like the Zags. Have to show we can win which improves recruiting which improves winning and so on. I dont think being competitive in the WCC is out of our school's reach and I am pretty sure the WCC has had more than one team in the NCAA in the past. So we need more years where the BSC teams win multiple OOC games and improve the respect the BSC receives and overall lift the level of the BSC.

I actually was expecting more response and dissenting opinions than I got.

 

[PeauxRouge]

Despite Tinkle not being here anymore, I also think our last two trips to the tournament could haunt us. Those ass-kickings were not kind to our brand, unfortunately.

 

[cmtgrizzly]

Despite Tinkle not being here anymore, I also think our last two trips to the tournament could haunt us. Those ass-kickings were not kind to our brand, unfortunately.

True and I was there for the most epic of those beat downs. That was tough to witness. Syracuse was staying in our hotel and was assembling in the lobby prior to leaving for the game. My buddy took it upon himself to let them know how badly we were about to crush them. I like to think Boeheim basically didnt pull his starters (because he didnt) thanks to my friend and his very brief but clear (all in good fun) sh** talking.