Sagarin Rankings

[Robsnotes4u]

I would much rather see more conference against other conference games and drop the up/down games across the board so the entire FCS can get a better picture of how teams truly stack up against each other. That would be more accurate than any poll.

EverettGriz is correct on the checkbook part, it has to be done. With a computer there isn't the need to play all that many conference games. Here is a quote on SRS, from Chad Stuart.

"We don’t have a full slate of games, but we do have at least 1 game for 77 different teams. Theoretically, this is different than using actual game results: one game can be enough to come up with Vegas’ implied rating for the team. Purdue may only have a spread for one game, but that’s enough. Why? Because Purdue is a 21-point underdog at a neutral field (Lucas Oil) against Notre Dame, and we have point spreads for the Fighting Irish in ten other games. Since we can be reasonably confident in Notre Dame’s rating, that makes us able to be pretty confident about Purdue’s rating, too."

We use the same type rating system "Fargo Rating" developed by a Doctor Physics/Chemistry. He and I had the discussion just the other day about Sagarin, and our rating system. Here is the example he gave me.

If you take a closed environment league in Alaska, where they play only each other, they will develop a rating within that league, all based on what you gave them for a starting rating After awhile it becomes stable, as long as the same people play. Lets give one of them a rating of 500.

One person, the 500, decides to go to another tourney, a national tourney. After even one game with someone outside of his league, you just added all the data from the player he just played, which includes every player that is in that "spiderweb of players". Now his rating changes, adjusted up or down depending on outcome. The same thing happens to everyone else in his home league without them even playing another game, (ever notice how a computer rating changes even after a bye week).

The result, his rating and the whole league back home adjust up or down. Now, and only now can his league be compared. Before his leagues idea of a 500, was just that, his league's rating. Now, what they thought was a 500 is really a 400 or maybe 600. With this, I can go anywhere that uses Fargo Ratings, without ever playing someone before, and know what the outcome should be, or more importantly how to handicap the match.

 

[monte is a character]

The ironic part of all of this, is that many games are won or lost because of one or two plays, out of the 60-90 plays that are run. A missed tackle, a fumble, a missed FG, a blocked extra point, etc. etc. I am sure that we all remember the two games we won last year against almost impossible odds due to one play. So, the phrase "on any given Saturday" is perhaps more significant than any ranking system.

 

[statler & waldorf]

The Big Sky will make some waves in the playoffs this year...

Like it did last year? :lol:
But, seriously, a Griz ranking of #7 is beyond belief, no matter how maroon you are. The Massey Ratings include Sagarin(and a bunch of other ratings)so you can see how others see the Griz, and everyone else. As long as our Griz win, whether by one or 100, fine. Ugly? Yes, but WTF! They could be the lowest ranked NC in the history of 1-AA. I'd be happy with that. :thumb:
Do I believe it will happen? No. Reality bites.

 

[AZGrizFan]

The ironic part of all of this, is that many games are won or lost because of one or two plays, out of the 60-90 plays that are run. A missed tackle, a fumble, a missed FG, a blocked extra point, etc. etc. I am sure that we all remember the two games we won last year against almost impossible odds due to one play. So, the phrase "on any given Saturday" is perhaps more significant than any ranking system.

Ask the Houston Texans about that theory. They played 58 minutes of inspired football last night against the Steelers....there was just that 2 minutes right before the half where they turned the ball over twice, gave up 24 unanswered points and lost 30-23.

 

[monte is a character]

The ironic part of all of this, is that many games are won or lost because of one or two plays, out of the 60-90 plays that are run. A missed tackle, a fumble, a missed FG, a blocked extra point, etc. etc. I am sure that we all remember the two games we won last year against almost impossible odds due to one play. So, the phrase "on any given Saturday" is perhaps more significant than any ranking system.

Ask the Houston Texans about that theory. They played 58 minutes of inspired football last night against the Steelers....there was just that 2 minutes right before the half where they turned the ball over twice, gave up 24 unanswered points and lost 30-23.

Good validation. And last week, the Cincy Bengals tied instead of winning in overtime against Carolina because a 26 yard FG (basically an extra point) was missed. One play!

Which is why using W/L records to rank teams is a lesson in futility. Montana came with two plays of missing the playoffs last season. Tripps blocked FG versus Poly, and Hendo's KO return against South Dakota.

 

[uofmman1122]

The ironic part of all of this, is that many games are won or lost because of one or two plays, out of the 60-90 plays that are run. A missed tackle, a fumble, a missed FG, a blocked extra point, etc. etc. I am sure that we all remember the two games we won last year against almost impossible odds due to one play. So, the phrase "on any given Saturday" is perhaps more significant than any ranking system.

Ask the Houston Texans about that theory. They played 58 minutes of inspired football last night against the Steelers....there was just that 2 minutes right before the half where they turned the ball over twice, gave up 24 unanswered points and lost 30-23.

Good validation. And last week, the Cincy Bengals tied instead of winning in overtime against Carolina because a 26 yard FG (basically an extra point) was missed. One play!

Which is why using W/L records to rank teams is a lesson in futility. Montana came with two plays of missing the playoffs last season. Tripps blocked FG versus Poly, and Hendo's KO return against South Dakota.

While true, we were also a hands to the face penalty away from beating EWU last year, too.

 

[monte is a character]

The ironic part of all of this, is that many games are won or lost because of one or two plays, out of the 60-90 plays that are run. A missed tackle, a fumble, a missed FG, a blocked extra point, etc. etc. I am sure that we all remember the two games we won last year against almost impossible odds due to one play. So, the phrase "on any given Saturday" is perhaps more significant than any ranking system.

Ask the Houston Texans about that theory. They played 58 minutes of inspired football last night against the Steelers....there was just that 2 minutes right before the half where they turned the ball over twice, gave up 24 unanswered points and lost 30-23.

Good validation. And last week, the Cincy Bengals tied instead of winning in overtime against Carolina because a 26 yard FG (basically an extra point) was missed. One play!

Which is why using W/L records to rank teams is a lesson in futility. Montana came with two plays of missing the playoffs last season. Tripps blocked FG versus Poly, and Hendo's KO return against South Dakota.

While true, we were also a hands to the face penalty away from beating EWU last year, too.

True. But our DBs screwed the pooch in that game too.

 

[Robsnotes4u]

The ironic part of all of this, is that many games are won or lost because of one or two plays, out of the 60-90 plays that are run. A missed tackle, a fumble, a missed FG, a blocked extra point, etc. etc. I am sure that we all remember the two games we won last year against almost impossible odds due to one play. So, the phrase "on any given Saturday" is perhaps more significant than any ranking system.

Ask the Houston Texans about that theory. They played 58 minutes of inspired football last night against the Steelers....there was just that 2 minutes right before the half where they turned the ball over twice, gave up 24 unanswered points and lost 30-23.

Good validation. And last week, the Cincy Bengals tied instead of winning in overtime against Carolina because a 26 yard FG (basically an extra point) was missed. One play!

Which is why using W/L records to rank teams is a lesson in futility. Montana came with two plays of missing the playoffs last season. Tripps blocked FG versus Poly, and Hendo's KO return against South Dakota.

While true, we were also a hands to the face penalty away from beating EWU last year, too.

Every play has an 'if this then that". If he made the block then the RB is free for a TD. If he wraps up the tackle then they don't score. No one play is any more important than another. If the correct block or tackle is made early in the game, then the outcome changes for the rest of the game. "If this then that" can go back and forth for ever.

One guarantee in any of the situations after a game, "ifs" are only things that did not happen.

 

[DuCharme]

Today's release of the GPI has the Griz tied for 14th.

http://www.collegesportingnews.com/articles/20141021gpi.htm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

10/21/14 Gridiron Power Index (GPI)
1- N Dakota St
2- Illinois St
3- New Hampshire
4- Villanova
5- E Washington
6- Coastal Carolina
7- S Dakota St
8- Jacksonville St
9- SE Louisiana
10- Indiana St
11- Youngstown St
12- S Illinois
13- Missouri St
14T- Montana
14T- Northern Iowa
16- Chattanooga
17- Fordham
18- McNeese St
19- Montana St
20- Richmond
21- Northwestern St
22- Bethune-Cookman
23- E Kentucky
24- Harvard
25- W Illinois

 

['68griz]

Even better is the Cats at #19.

 

[ilovethecats]

Every play has an 'if this then that". If he made the block then the RB is free for a TD. If he wraps up the tackle then they don't score. No one play is any more important than another. If the correct block or tackle is made early in the game, then the outcome changes for the rest of the game. "If this then that" can go back and forth for ever.

One guarantee in any of the situations after a game, "ifs" are only things that did not happen.

i agree. fans like to point to ONE play that won or lost the game. but if you're a player or a coach and you're watching film, you'll find 100 plays that could have won or lost the game...

clearly...many of you never played the game.

 

[Robsnotes4u]

Interesting tid bit since this is about Sagarin.

Sat with the Gentleman who does our pool ratings, as I have state before much like Sagarin, tonight. We discussed football. As an ex professor at the Doctorate level at NDSU, he ran a rating system last year during the FCS playoffs, that was very accurate.

I asked, what was the difference between pool ratings and football. He said it is really simple. It is not about W/L in football. A football game has two teams on every team, an offense and a defense. So you build your algorithm on that. It is more complicated then I understand, but it does make total sense.

 

[CDAGRIZ]

Interesting tid bit since this is about Sagarin.

Sat with the Gentleman who does our pool ratings, as I have state before much like Sagarin, tonight. We discussed football. As an ex professor at the Doctorate level at NDSU, he ran a rating system last year during the FCS playoffs, that was very accurate.

I asked, what was the difference between pool ratings and football. He said it is really simple. It is not about W/L in football. A football game has two teams on every team, an offense and a defense. So you build your algorithm on that. It is more complicated then I understand, but it does make total sense.

So, you understand after it becomes more complicated?

 

[Cotton-eyed Hoe]

Interesting tid bit since this is about Sagarin.

Sat with the Gentleman who does our pool ratings, as I have state before much like Sagarin, tonight. We discussed football. As an ex professor at the Doctorate level at NDSU, he ran a rating system last year during the FCS playoffs, that was very accurate.

I asked, what was the difference between pool ratings and football. He said it is really simple. It is not about W/L in football. A football game has two teams on every team, an offense and a defense. So you build your algorithm on that. It is more complicated then I understand, but it does make total sense.

Quite a lot going on here, but I particularly like the capitalization of "Gentleman". Kind've lends it a Mafia feel..

 

[CDAGRIZ]

Interesting tid bit since this is about Sagarin.

Sat with the Gentleman who does our pool ratings, as I have state before much like Sagarin, tonight. We discussed football. As an ex professor at the Doctorate level at NDSU, he ran a rating system last year during the FCS playoffs, that was very accurate.

I asked, what was the difference between pool ratings and football. He said it is really simple. It is not about W/L in football. A football game has two teams on every team, an offense and a defense. So you build your algorithm on that. It is more complicated then I understand, but it does make total sense.

Quite a lot going on here, but I particularly like the capitalization of "Gentleman". Kind've lends it a Mafia feel..

I'm waiting for the next installment to find out which ND pool was rated the highest. I'm going with the Bismarck Radisson. The popular pick has always been the Grand Forks HoJo, but I feel a power shift a comin'.

 

[EverettGriz]

Interesting tid bit since this is about Sagarin.

Sat with the Gentleman who does our pool ratings, as I have state before much like Sagarin, tonight. We discussed football. As an ex professor at the Doctorate level at NDSU, he ran a rating system last year during the FCS playoffs, that was very accurate.

I asked, what was the difference between pool ratings and football. He said it is really simple. It is not about W/L in football. A football game has two teams on every team, an offense and a defense. So you build your algorithm on that. It is more complicated then I understand, but it does make total sense.

Quite a lot going on here, but I particularly like the capitalization of "Gentleman". Kind've lends it a Mafia feel..

:lol:

 

[Robsnotes4u]

Interesting tid bit since this is about Sagarin.

Sat with the Gentleman who does our pool ratings, as I have state before much like Sagarin, tonight. We discussed football. As an ex professor at the Doctorate level at NDSU, he ran a rating system last year during the FCS playoffs, that was very accurate.

I asked, what was the difference between pool ratings and football. He said it is really simple. It is not about W/L in football. A football game has two teams on every team, an offense and a defense. So you build your algorithm on that. It is more complicated then I understand, but it does make total sense.

So, you understand after it becomes more complicated?

Evidently it is beyond your scope of reasoning. I will spell it out for you. The math is more complicated, but the thought process makes more sense. I am sorry I forget that you guys attended the school you did. I will make everything simpler next time. I will sllooooow down.

 

[CDAGRIZ]

Interesting tid bit since this is about Sagarin.

Sat with the Gentleman who does our pool ratings, as I have state before much like Sagarin, tonight. We discussed football. As an ex professor at the Doctorate level at NDSU, he ran a rating system last year during the FCS playoffs, that was very accurate.

I asked, what was the difference between pool ratings and football. He said it is really simple. It is not about W/L in football. A football game has two teams on every team, an offense and a defense. So you build your algorithm on that. It is more complicated then I understand, but it does make total sense.

So, you understand after it becomes more complicated?

Evidently it is beyond your scope of reasoning. I will spell it out for you. The math is more complicated, but the thought process makes more sense. I am sorry I forget that you guys attended the school you did. I will make everything simpler next time. I will sllooooow down.

"Spell it out?" Which one of you guys are posting under Robsnotes4u? If this is Ursa fucking around I will be pissed. Amazed, but pissed.

 

[Mr. Greenjeans]

Interesting tid bit since this is about Sagarin.

Sat with the Gentleman who does our pool ratings, as I have state before much like Sagarin, tonight. We discussed football. As an ex professor at the Doctorate level at NDSU, he ran a rating system last year during the FCS playoffs, that was very accurate.

I asked, what was the difference between pool ratings and football. He said it is really simple. It is not about W/L in football. A football game has two teams on every team, an offense and a defense. So you build your algorithm on that. It is more complicated then I understand, but it does make total sense.

So admitting you are an idiot when posting about football should make those of us that are interested in football have an opinion other than you are an idiot. Nice try...

 

[Robsnotes4u]

Interesting tid bit since this is about Sagarin.

Sat with the Gentleman who does our pool ratings, as I have state before much like Sagarin, tonight. We discussed football. As an ex professor at the Doctorate level at NDSU, he ran a rating system last year during the FCS playoffs, that was very accurate.

I asked, what was the difference between pool ratings and football. He said it is really simple. It is not about W/L in football. A football game has two teams on every team, an offense and a defense. So you build your algorithm on that. It is more complicated then I understand, but it does make total sense.

So, you understand after it becomes more complicated?

Evidently it is beyond your scope of reasoning. I will spell it out for you. The math is more complicated, but the thought process makes more sense. I am sorry I forget that you guys attended the school you did. I will make everything simpler next time. I will sllooooow down.

"Spell it out?" Which one of you guys are posting under Robsnotes4u? If this is Ursa f***[*] around I will be pissed. Amazed, but pissed.

Any fool can criticize, condemn and complain especially when they lack the intelligence and understanding, but I don't think that is you. Insecure people try to make you feel smaller. Prove me wrong, prove you are not a fool, only insecure.