Go time – the 2014 season is upon us and I’m hoping this updated scouting report will show some of the numbers I normally compile in a more visual fashion with a few charts and graphs instead of just text.
Up first, the Griz are headed to Wyoming in a much anticipated FBS matchup – maybe one of the best chances for a Griz win vs an FBS team in a while, going back to when they beat Idaho 4 years in a row back around 1999 – 2002. For the Griz there’s some upcoming challenges that are challenging to prepare for, we’ll call them the “known unknowns” (bonus points for a source on that).
Known Unknown #1 Craig Bohl, 3 time NDSU national champ head coach takes over, bringing a system that will change from a hurry-up / spread / speed offense into a slower, powerful, grind it out offense. How will that equate to success for this team though? This team is mostly spread players now being asked to play power football. Bohl is a smart coach, will he use some of the team’s skill and mix it up? There’s no game film save some scrimmage highlights for the Griz to go off of.
Known Unknown #2 Wyo’s defense last year was really really bad. Now with a new coach and plan moving forward this team will come forth with 9 senior starters most of whom were starters last year. So will the defense vastly improve? Same guys but a new coach and new style. Again, the Griz have little to know insight for what to prepare for.
Known Unknown #3 The Grizzlies depth/academic/injury issues in key positions. Stud WR Ellis Henderson may play sparingly, we’re breaking in 5 brand new linemen, and we’ve got 3 other WRs that are presumed out for this game. Add in the kicking situation is a toss-up with coach Delaney leaning for in-game experience over total accuracy. The Griz coaches clearly have a plan – but how will that translate on the field?
Fall Camp Report
Normally here we re-cap games… but this is the season opener. Here’s some press clippings from Bohl’s fall camp:
- In an 8/16 scrimmage that had 98 total plays the offense showed it was fitting into the new system. No flashy stats from a single player but a healthy 5.4 yards per rush and 6.7 yards per pass attempt. Both QBs had good completion % but not a lot of yards while the top 3 statistical running backs all had real nice YPC numbers with Hill at 14 ypc, Evans at 8.7 ypc, and Fort at 10.5 ypc. The punter had an erratic day with 4 punts, one at 70 yards but the other three averaging just 32 yards. Their kicker, Stuart Williams, went 4 for 5, three of which were over 40 yards. Only 1 forced turnover for the defense.
Statistics
With my first scouting report it’s always a crap-shoot because I’m basing all of the stats off of the prior season. Well, Wyo had a new coach and new system – so these numbers are practically junk. As we move forward they’ll be more applicable, so take these with a big grain of salt.
Yards per game:
As you can see Montana’s numbers should reflect what the coaches are hoping for again, a balanced attack with a little bit heavier yards in the passing game. What stands out to me is the Cowboy’s rush defense. With a lot of the same guys they’re returning a unit that allowed 220 rush yards per game. This could match up well for the Grizzlies rushing game.
On the other side of the coin comparing Wyo’s offense from last year to the Grizzly defense last year probably isn’t even worth analyzing. It does show though that Wyo’s offense did put up some big stats – something Montana needs to be aware of, a sub-par FBS team or not, Wyo has guys that put up big numbers.
Points Per game:
In both cases the Grizzlies stats hold the advantage. If Wyo’s personnel on defense lead to similar result the Griz might find the endzone a little easier to reach that maybe initially expected? Being based on last season I feel confident in what the Grizzly defense and offense SHOULD do, for Wyo… no clue.
As we dig deeper I’ve got 4 charts here which track how each team scores over the quarter.
First up, the Grizzly offense vs the Wyo defense. Last year it seemed that as the game wore on Wyo’s defense got worse (check the next chart – the Grizzly defense was the opposite). Also from the one scrimmage report Wyo’s defense showed this issue too with poor tackling showing up as the scrimmage went on. The Grizzly offense last year had a hard time building momentum until the 4th quarter.
Next we’ve got the flip side of that chart – the Grizzly defense vs the Wyo offense. If only we were playing last year’s team! Haha, their offense and the points it scores matches up with what our defense allows. For this Saturday though, toss it all out.
The last two charts compare offense to offense and defense to defense. It kind of paints a picture of where teams could take an advantage in scoring and grabbing the lead in this game. The key call out to me is how each teams defense headed in a different direction after halftime.
One last visual look back at these teams side-by-side, how they stack up in the red zone, once again if we could hope that Wyo’s defense can stay the same there’s some great opportunities for the Griz. The Grizzlies when they’re in the red zone come away scoring a TD 70% of the time – while Wyo’s defense was allowing TDs 67% of the time to opposing teams. On the other side, Wyo’s offense was even more effective in the RZ than the Griz – however here’s where things are different, the Grizzly defense was pretty darn good keeping teams out of the end zone once they got into the RZ last season
A few other worthwhile stats:
- UM was +18 last year in turnovers while Wyo was -3. The Griz forced as many fumbles as INTs (16 each) while Wyo’s defense forced 9 interceptions and 11 fumbles.
- Last year Wyo’s punt coverage and kick coverage wasn’t too good, allowed almost 8 yards per punt return and 22 yards per return on kickoffs.
- Wyo was pretty good on offense with a 45% 3rd down conversion rate, compare to the Grizzly offense which was just a little off that at 43%.
Players to watch
#11 – QB – Koby Kirkegaard. Koby is a big QB ideal for Bohl’s pocket-style system, he’s 6-3 and 205 pounds. He had a very solid fall camp, practice and scrimmage press shows he’s an efficient passer that is pretty good especially in short to medium ranges.
#21 – RB – Shaun Wick. Wick was last season’s main running back, he amassed 979 total rushing yards, 9 rushing TDs, also 118 receiving yards and 2 more receiving TDs. Wick is 5-10 and a burly 212 pounds, he’ll be a load for our defense.
#7 – RB – DJ May. May missed all of last season with an injury but played the year before as a freshman. Currently in the depth chart he’s listed ahead of Wick. A similar size guy at 5-10, 205.
#9 – WR – Jalen Claiborne. A bit of a shorter WR at 5-9 and 175 he’ll size up well with our shorter corners. Claiborne was the 4th overall WR last year with 452 yards and 5 TDs, but he had one of the higher YPC averages of the regular WRs. He was also last years PR and KR. He’s their big all-purpose yardage guy.
#33 – WR – Dominic Rufran. Rufran is the #1 WR and will be a handful for our secondary. 960 yards last year, 8 TDs. He’s listed as the 21st best player in the Mountain West and landed on the pre-season Biletnikoff watch list. He’s 6 feet tall and 188 pounds.
#55 – DE – Eddie Yarborough. The first game our brand new tackles get to start out with is against one of the best D-ends in the Mountain West. All Eddie did last year was tally up 89 tackles, 12 TFLs, 6.5 sacks, 2 forced and 2 recovered fumbles, and he blocked a kick. Eddie’s a big guy, he’s 6-3 and 251 pounds.
#1 – MLB – Jordan Stanton. The middle of the defense and the leader in the stat books. 134 tackles last season, 10 TFLs, 2 sacks, and 2 interceptions. Stanton is a little short for a middle linebacker at 6 feet but he’s almost 250 pounds. But last season is in the books and Stanton is now listed as a co-starter next to #53 Alex Borgs, a taller but lighter (6-2, 230) mike-backer.
#20 – CB – Blair Burns. Burns was 6th on the team with 61 tackles and will presumably draw Jamaal Jones in coverage more often than not. He had just 1 int last year but lead the team with 7 pass breakups, he also recovered 1 fumble.
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Keys to a Grizzly Victory
1. Help Thiebes and Dietrich. These two have been practicing against Wags and Holmes for almost a month now, however at the Mountain West level just about everyone is at or above Wags and Holmes level. Putting our two brand new tackles on an island against this talented Wyo D-line would be a nightmare. Use the TE to chip or help block, also Jordan Canada is an excellent pass-blocker, have him help out too.
2. Stay balanced if the run game can find traction. Wyo’s rush defense was bad bad bad last season with a lot of the same guys they’ll be using this year. Add in they’re breaking in two new safeties and look to be rotating their LBs a lot – we have to have the middle of the O-line win in the trench and allow for the running game to keep the Cowboys defense guessing.
3. Quick passes, screens, hurry up. Go quick, use the skill this team has between JJ, the WRs, and our running backs. Don’t use too many long and drawn out plays or else that D-line and the linebackers will be all over JJ. Honestly I think some zone-read might work well in this game, hell… JJ’s our QB, see what happens if you roll it out a bit.
4. Stuff the run. Maybe one of the two biggest things the Griz will need to do on Saturday to keep in this game. Wyoming had talented running backs and a new and inexperienced QB. All signs point to a ton of hand-offs and rushes. Add in they’ve got an experienced O-line and a head coach that loves smash-mouth football.
5. Win on special teams. I think the Griz have the better punter. As for kicker… who knows. Wyo didn’t attempt much at all last year while the Grizzlies are going with Lider but I believe are bringing Greenberg and Sullivan too. Wyo last season had issues on kick and punt coverage – not having Ellis hurts but maybe Nguyen or Canada could open things up a bit.
6. Take advantage of the x-factor. When healthy last season TraVon Van made this offense so incredibly dangerous. I applaud the coaches trying to find ways to get him in space more and I hope to see a heavy dose of him out there. Get him some screens, send him up the field as the Z-wr, get him going and juking past would-be tacklers.
7. Tackle. Yep…. Tackle. Limit the arm tackles, missed tackles, being caught on your feet, etc. The team has worked hard to improve tackling this spring/fall – time to prove it.
8. Win the turnover battle. Last season and the season before I think the Griz were near flawless when they won the turnover battle. It would seem the staple of a Delaney team is that if they force more turnovers than the amount they give up – they win the game.
9. Embrace the atmosphere and prepare for a wild crowd. Near sell-out, excitement over a new coach, many fans expecting an easy win against what they’d perceive as an inferior team… it’s going to be rowdy at first but could taper off if the Griz hang around.
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The challenge of course is that against a team with superior size, equipment, staff, roster, and facilities is that the Griz could complete many of the points above needed to win, but still lose. The long standing issue is that when FCS goes up against FBS they’re largely out-manned and in over their heads. Not all the time, but numbers show a vast majority.
Personally I see a low scoring game. Wyo will have a new signal caller and is going to run it all day long. If the Griz can stay fresh on defense, prove they’re on the same/similar level, and keep the Wyo offense from grinding them out – the Cowboys may not score a ton of points. On the other side I’m worried about this inexperienced O-line the Griz have and our kicking situation. It could be a long day to get traction in the trenches and JJ could be running for his life a lot. If the Griz had some of their experienced tackles and a 100% Ellis Henderson I may tip my choice to a Grizzlies upset win. However, they don’t, and I think it’s enough to keep the Griz from pulling this one off. I’m thinking in a lower-scoring affair Wyoming will come out the winner, 19-10.
The biggest factor that could prevent a loss will be quality play from our O-line. They’re the biggest make or break (I think) for this game. Lets see these guys get after it, if they can push the Wyo d-line around and give JJ time – it’s a whole different ballgame.
GO GRIZ!
Up first, the Griz are headed to Wyoming in a much anticipated FBS matchup – maybe one of the best chances for a Griz win vs an FBS team in a while, going back to when they beat Idaho 4 years in a row back around 1999 – 2002. For the Griz there’s some upcoming challenges that are challenging to prepare for, we’ll call them the “known unknowns” (bonus points for a source on that).
Known Unknown #1 Craig Bohl, 3 time NDSU national champ head coach takes over, bringing a system that will change from a hurry-up / spread / speed offense into a slower, powerful, grind it out offense. How will that equate to success for this team though? This team is mostly spread players now being asked to play power football. Bohl is a smart coach, will he use some of the team’s skill and mix it up? There’s no game film save some scrimmage highlights for the Griz to go off of.
Known Unknown #2 Wyo’s defense last year was really really bad. Now with a new coach and plan moving forward this team will come forth with 9 senior starters most of whom were starters last year. So will the defense vastly improve? Same guys but a new coach and new style. Again, the Griz have little to know insight for what to prepare for.
Known Unknown #3 The Grizzlies depth/academic/injury issues in key positions. Stud WR Ellis Henderson may play sparingly, we’re breaking in 5 brand new linemen, and we’ve got 3 other WRs that are presumed out for this game. Add in the kicking situation is a toss-up with coach Delaney leaning for in-game experience over total accuracy. The Griz coaches clearly have a plan – but how will that translate on the field?
Fall Camp Report
Normally here we re-cap games… but this is the season opener. Here’s some press clippings from Bohl’s fall camp:
- In an 8/16 scrimmage that had 98 total plays the offense showed it was fitting into the new system. No flashy stats from a single player but a healthy 5.4 yards per rush and 6.7 yards per pass attempt. Both QBs had good completion % but not a lot of yards while the top 3 statistical running backs all had real nice YPC numbers with Hill at 14 ypc, Evans at 8.7 ypc, and Fort at 10.5 ypc. The punter had an erratic day with 4 punts, one at 70 yards but the other three averaging just 32 yards. Their kicker, Stuart Williams, went 4 for 5, three of which were over 40 yards. Only 1 forced turnover for the defense.
Statistics
With my first scouting report it’s always a crap-shoot because I’m basing all of the stats off of the prior season. Well, Wyo had a new coach and new system – so these numbers are practically junk. As we move forward they’ll be more applicable, so take these with a big grain of salt.
Yards per game:
As you can see Montana’s numbers should reflect what the coaches are hoping for again, a balanced attack with a little bit heavier yards in the passing game. What stands out to me is the Cowboy’s rush defense. With a lot of the same guys they’re returning a unit that allowed 220 rush yards per game. This could match up well for the Grizzlies rushing game.
On the other side of the coin comparing Wyo’s offense from last year to the Grizzly defense last year probably isn’t even worth analyzing. It does show though that Wyo’s offense did put up some big stats – something Montana needs to be aware of, a sub-par FBS team or not, Wyo has guys that put up big numbers.
Points Per game:
In both cases the Grizzlies stats hold the advantage. If Wyo’s personnel on defense lead to similar result the Griz might find the endzone a little easier to reach that maybe initially expected? Being based on last season I feel confident in what the Grizzly defense and offense SHOULD do, for Wyo… no clue.
As we dig deeper I’ve got 4 charts here which track how each team scores over the quarter.
First up, the Grizzly offense vs the Wyo defense. Last year it seemed that as the game wore on Wyo’s defense got worse (check the next chart – the Grizzly defense was the opposite). Also from the one scrimmage report Wyo’s defense showed this issue too with poor tackling showing up as the scrimmage went on. The Grizzly offense last year had a hard time building momentum until the 4th quarter.
Next we’ve got the flip side of that chart – the Grizzly defense vs the Wyo offense. If only we were playing last year’s team! Haha, their offense and the points it scores matches up with what our defense allows. For this Saturday though, toss it all out.
The last two charts compare offense to offense and defense to defense. It kind of paints a picture of where teams could take an advantage in scoring and grabbing the lead in this game. The key call out to me is how each teams defense headed in a different direction after halftime.
One last visual look back at these teams side-by-side, how they stack up in the red zone, once again if we could hope that Wyo’s defense can stay the same there’s some great opportunities for the Griz. The Grizzlies when they’re in the red zone come away scoring a TD 70% of the time – while Wyo’s defense was allowing TDs 67% of the time to opposing teams. On the other side, Wyo’s offense was even more effective in the RZ than the Griz – however here’s where things are different, the Grizzly defense was pretty darn good keeping teams out of the end zone once they got into the RZ last season
A few other worthwhile stats:
- UM was +18 last year in turnovers while Wyo was -3. The Griz forced as many fumbles as INTs (16 each) while Wyo’s defense forced 9 interceptions and 11 fumbles.
- Last year Wyo’s punt coverage and kick coverage wasn’t too good, allowed almost 8 yards per punt return and 22 yards per return on kickoffs.
- Wyo was pretty good on offense with a 45% 3rd down conversion rate, compare to the Grizzly offense which was just a little off that at 43%.
Players to watch
#11 – QB – Koby Kirkegaard. Koby is a big QB ideal for Bohl’s pocket-style system, he’s 6-3 and 205 pounds. He had a very solid fall camp, practice and scrimmage press shows he’s an efficient passer that is pretty good especially in short to medium ranges.
#21 – RB – Shaun Wick. Wick was last season’s main running back, he amassed 979 total rushing yards, 9 rushing TDs, also 118 receiving yards and 2 more receiving TDs. Wick is 5-10 and a burly 212 pounds, he’ll be a load for our defense.
#7 – RB – DJ May. May missed all of last season with an injury but played the year before as a freshman. Currently in the depth chart he’s listed ahead of Wick. A similar size guy at 5-10, 205.
#9 – WR – Jalen Claiborne. A bit of a shorter WR at 5-9 and 175 he’ll size up well with our shorter corners. Claiborne was the 4th overall WR last year with 452 yards and 5 TDs, but he had one of the higher YPC averages of the regular WRs. He was also last years PR and KR. He’s their big all-purpose yardage guy.
#33 – WR – Dominic Rufran. Rufran is the #1 WR and will be a handful for our secondary. 960 yards last year, 8 TDs. He’s listed as the 21st best player in the Mountain West and landed on the pre-season Biletnikoff watch list. He’s 6 feet tall and 188 pounds.
#55 – DE – Eddie Yarborough. The first game our brand new tackles get to start out with is against one of the best D-ends in the Mountain West. All Eddie did last year was tally up 89 tackles, 12 TFLs, 6.5 sacks, 2 forced and 2 recovered fumbles, and he blocked a kick. Eddie’s a big guy, he’s 6-3 and 251 pounds.
#1 – MLB – Jordan Stanton. The middle of the defense and the leader in the stat books. 134 tackles last season, 10 TFLs, 2 sacks, and 2 interceptions. Stanton is a little short for a middle linebacker at 6 feet but he’s almost 250 pounds. But last season is in the books and Stanton is now listed as a co-starter next to #53 Alex Borgs, a taller but lighter (6-2, 230) mike-backer.
#20 – CB – Blair Burns. Burns was 6th on the team with 61 tackles and will presumably draw Jamaal Jones in coverage more often than not. He had just 1 int last year but lead the team with 7 pass breakups, he also recovered 1 fumble.
----------------------------
Keys to a Grizzly Victory
1. Help Thiebes and Dietrich. These two have been practicing against Wags and Holmes for almost a month now, however at the Mountain West level just about everyone is at or above Wags and Holmes level. Putting our two brand new tackles on an island against this talented Wyo D-line would be a nightmare. Use the TE to chip or help block, also Jordan Canada is an excellent pass-blocker, have him help out too.
2. Stay balanced if the run game can find traction. Wyo’s rush defense was bad bad bad last season with a lot of the same guys they’ll be using this year. Add in they’re breaking in two new safeties and look to be rotating their LBs a lot – we have to have the middle of the O-line win in the trench and allow for the running game to keep the Cowboys defense guessing.
3. Quick passes, screens, hurry up. Go quick, use the skill this team has between JJ, the WRs, and our running backs. Don’t use too many long and drawn out plays or else that D-line and the linebackers will be all over JJ. Honestly I think some zone-read might work well in this game, hell… JJ’s our QB, see what happens if you roll it out a bit.
4. Stuff the run. Maybe one of the two biggest things the Griz will need to do on Saturday to keep in this game. Wyoming had talented running backs and a new and inexperienced QB. All signs point to a ton of hand-offs and rushes. Add in they’ve got an experienced O-line and a head coach that loves smash-mouth football.
5. Win on special teams. I think the Griz have the better punter. As for kicker… who knows. Wyo didn’t attempt much at all last year while the Grizzlies are going with Lider but I believe are bringing Greenberg and Sullivan too. Wyo last season had issues on kick and punt coverage – not having Ellis hurts but maybe Nguyen or Canada could open things up a bit.
6. Take advantage of the x-factor. When healthy last season TraVon Van made this offense so incredibly dangerous. I applaud the coaches trying to find ways to get him in space more and I hope to see a heavy dose of him out there. Get him some screens, send him up the field as the Z-wr, get him going and juking past would-be tacklers.
7. Tackle. Yep…. Tackle. Limit the arm tackles, missed tackles, being caught on your feet, etc. The team has worked hard to improve tackling this spring/fall – time to prove it.
8. Win the turnover battle. Last season and the season before I think the Griz were near flawless when they won the turnover battle. It would seem the staple of a Delaney team is that if they force more turnovers than the amount they give up – they win the game.
9. Embrace the atmosphere and prepare for a wild crowd. Near sell-out, excitement over a new coach, many fans expecting an easy win against what they’d perceive as an inferior team… it’s going to be rowdy at first but could taper off if the Griz hang around.
---------------------
The challenge of course is that against a team with superior size, equipment, staff, roster, and facilities is that the Griz could complete many of the points above needed to win, but still lose. The long standing issue is that when FCS goes up against FBS they’re largely out-manned and in over their heads. Not all the time, but numbers show a vast majority.
Personally I see a low scoring game. Wyo will have a new signal caller and is going to run it all day long. If the Griz can stay fresh on defense, prove they’re on the same/similar level, and keep the Wyo offense from grinding them out – the Cowboys may not score a ton of points. On the other side I’m worried about this inexperienced O-line the Griz have and our kicking situation. It could be a long day to get traction in the trenches and JJ could be running for his life a lot. If the Griz had some of their experienced tackles and a 100% Ellis Henderson I may tip my choice to a Grizzlies upset win. However, they don’t, and I think it’s enough to keep the Griz from pulling this one off. I’m thinking in a lower-scoring affair Wyoming will come out the winner, 19-10.
The biggest factor that could prevent a loss will be quality play from our O-line. They’re the biggest make or break (I think) for this game. Lets see these guys get after it, if they can push the Wyo d-line around and give JJ time – it’s a whole different ballgame.
GO GRIZ!