Trump Wants Live Sports Back Sooner than Later

[PlayerRep]

Meanwhile, influenza, for which we have a vaccine, has killed twice as many people in the US this year(and every year) and there is no talk of social distancing, shutting down schools or businesses, straining medical resources, etc. Financial markets don't crash, store shelves don't run bare, state boundaries don't close. Why the disparate reactions?

Because approx. 1%-2% of covid19 cases are fatal. If the flu had that mortality rate, it would make the effects of the covid19 seem negligible. Unfortunately ,there is no comparison between the two. Covid19 is probably 100 times as lethal as the flu. That's why you don't see financial markets crash, empty store shelves, closed borders.

Yes, at least as now now, you are more likely to die from the flu than the Virus.

 

[EverettGriz]

The stats are 1-2%, neither of which changes the discussion one tiny iota. That percentage is a magnitude so far in excess of the death rate of flu to make any comparison completely and totally meaningless.

Regarding Montana's hospitals, yes, you may be right. They may not have been overwhelmed. But they certainly would have in much of the United States. Hospitals in the Puget Sound were developing ethical codes to determine who gets care and who doesn't; who gets admitted to the ICU and who doesn't; who gets a ventilator and who doesn't. In essence, they were drawing up written ethical guidelines to determine who lives and who dies. That should NEVER happen in the US, and if staying our asses inside for a few weeks can avoid it, then I'm on board, and I seriously question the values of anyone who is not.

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/it-will-not-be-pretty-state-preparing-to-make-life-or-death-decisions-if-coronavirus-overwhelms-health-care-system/

 

[ilovethecats]

I'm astounded people keep making the comparison of run-of-the-mill flu to Covid. Far more people die in auto accidents every year as well. But if you had a 2% chance of dying every time you got in your vehicle, I promise you there would be a significant reaction.

The reason those steps were taken is to avoid overwhelming hospitals, something that would absolutely have happened without strong social distancing rules. That isn't a risk with the flu.

There isn't a 2% chance that you will die from the Virus. Of the people who test positive for it, about 1% or so are dying. Almost all of them them are older and have other underlying conditions.

Im not sure that hospitals in MT would have been overwhelmed if nothing had been done.

It seems like some, (maybe not EG) want to “have their cake and eat it too” with this virus. Everyone seems to agree that part of what makes this thing so dangerous is because you can have it and spread it without ever knowing. What percentage this is is anyone’s guess but I’ve seen figures all over the board. But all of them seem to agree that far more people have had this virus than we know.

Currently we only are testing people showing strong symptoms. You basically need to check every box to even begin testing. Of those only about 25% are positive we a minuscule amount being hospitalized and less dying.

I’m just not sure where these 2% figures are coming from and how accurate they are?

 

[SaskGriz]

When I read the title of this thread I thought of John Turturro in Rounders playing Knish;

"...and I need a blowjob from Christy Turlington."

 

[MikeyGriz]

Because approx. 1%-2% of covid19 cases are fatal. If the flu had that mortality rate, it would make the effects of the covid19 seem negligible. Unfortunately ,there is no comparison between the two. Covid19 is probably 100 times as lethal as the flu. That's why you don't see financial markets crash, empty store shelves, closed borders.

I'm astounded people keep making the comparison of run-of-the-mill flu to Covid. Far more people die in auto accidents every year as well. But if you had a 2% chance of dying every time you got in your vehicle, I promise you there would be a significant reaction.

The reason those steps were taken is to avoid overwhelming hospitals, something that would absolutely have happened without strong social distancing rules. That isn't a risk with the flu.

Any declaration of fatality rates on either the flu or covid are speculative since the real infection/death rates are guesses. Many people infected by either will never be positively diagnosed. Also, many deaths to both are attributed to each illness without testing to back up the assumptions.

 

[EverettGriz]

Fair enough. But death rates aside, we know for certain what happens with this virus if the curve is not flattened: hospitals become overwhelmed. If there are no beds in the hospital, what do we do with the everyday concerns which require immediate care: heart attacks, strokes, car accidents, appendicitis, etc? THAT is the real issue the stay at home order attempted — rather successfully it seems for those states who implemented it — to eliminate.

 

[MikeyGriz]

The stats are 1-2%, neither of which changes the discussion one tiny iota. That percentage is a magnitude so far in excess of the death rate of flu to make any comparison completely and totally meaningless.

Regarding Montana's hospitals, yes, you may be right. They may not have been overwhelmed. But they certainly would have in much of the United States. Hospitals in the Puget Sound were developing ethical codes to determine who gets care and who doesn't; who gets admitted to the ICU and who doesn't; who gets a ventilator and who doesn't. In essence, they were drawing up written ethical guidelines to determine who lives and who dies. That should NEVER happen in the US, and if staying our asses inside for a few weeks can avoid it, then I'm on board, and I seriously question the values of anyone who is not.

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/it-will-not-be-pretty-state-preparing-to-make-life-or-death-decisions-if-coronavirus-overwhelms-health-care-system/

The ratio of existing/available hospital rooms to population is way different in the locals you have referenced. That has a lot to do with potential to be overwhelmed. Not trying to be snarky or argumentative, just stating extenuating circumstances that effect potential outcomes. Another reason that one size does not fit all.

 

[PlayerRep]

"No One Knows What Will Happen to College Football in 2020. Don’t Tell the Coaches.

Clemson’s Dabo Swinney and Oklahoma State’s Mike Gundy are among the coaches who have expressed optimism about playing games this fall"

"The first games of the 2020 college football season are not slated to kick off until Aug. 29. But with hospitals overwhelmed by the coronavirus pandemic, testing capacity limited and a vaccine not yet in sight, it’s far from clear if health officials will sign off on mass gatherings next fall to watch young men run headlong at each other.

Some college football coaches refuse to buy into the negativity, though.

“I have zero doubt that we’re going to be playing and the stands are going to be packed,” said Clemson Coach Dabo Swinney on a call with reporters last week. “This is America, man…We’re going to rise up and kick this thing in the teeth and get back to our lives.”

Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy has laid out an even more ambitious plan. He wants his staff to get back to work in the Cowboys’ football facilities on May 1, a deadline he conceded may be delayed “by a week or two.”

“We need to bring our players back…because we need to run money through the state of Oklahoma,” he said on a call with reporters early in the week. He then waded into his own analysis of the science around coronavirus data, “herd immunity” and younger populations.

“The majority of people in this building who are healthy…and certainly the 18-, 19-, 20-, 21-, 22-year-olds that are healthy, the so-called medical people saying the herd of healthy people that have the antibodies maybe built up and can fight this? We all need to go back to work,” said Gundy.

Swinney and Gundy are perhaps the most brash proponents of preserving the college football season, but it’s a sentiment that is shared more widely, if in a quieter fashion. With huge sums of money on the line, nearly half of the 112 athletic directors running Football Bowl Subdivision programs believed there was at least an 80% chance of college football being played in 2020, according to an anonymous survey by Stadium."

[Okay...Ready...Break]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/no-one-knows-what-will-happen-to-college-football-in-2020-dont-tell-the-coaches-11586612922?mod=hp_listc_pos1 Journal has paywall

 

[PlayerRep]

Fair enough. But death rates aside, we know for certain what happens with this virus if the curve is not flattened: hospitals become overwhelmed. If there are no beds in the hospital, what do we do with the everyday concerns which require immediate care: heart attacks, strokes, car accidents, appendicitis, etc? THAT is the real issue the stay at home order attempted — rather successfully it seems for those states who implemented it — to eliminate.

We also know what happens when 35% of the economy disappears this quarter and 20%-30% become unemployed. Maybe you don't, but many people do. US GNP was almost $22 Trillion for the 4th quarter of 2019. 35% of that is about $8 Trillion. That amount could buy alot of things. 8,000,000,000,000. Divided by 100,000 deaths. That's $80 million per person, per quarter. I don't mean to be harsh, and don't anyone to die, but how much is a life worth to society. We send people to war. We allow people to drive cars and have risky jobs. You math whizzes should check my math and methodology.

Bozeman/Gallatin, with cases in the State, has 1 person hospitalized.

MT has 21 people hospitalized in the whole state.

Missoula had about 255 empty and available beds, according to an article last month.

"While acknowledging that testing capacity for COVID-19 in Montana is not unlimited, Gov. Steve Bullock said Friday there’s been sufficient inventory of critical materials to test everyone in the state who should be tested." April 3 Missoulian.

""Bozeman Deaconess and Bozeman Health Big Sky Medical Center have surge plans to meet that possible demand, Hill said, including 40 ventilators and 10 more coming soon." Quote from above post.

"Officials had estimated that 140,000 hospital beds might be needed to treat coronavirus patients. Only about 18,500 were in use by week’s end."

"To stave off a catastrophe, New York might need up to 140,000 hospital beds and as many as 40,000 intensive care units with ventilators."

"In yet another sign that the worst of the predictions had not yet come to pass, the Javits Center, the convention center where Mr. Cuomo offered his worrisome assessment, was treating only 300 patients. The rest of its roughly 2,500 beds were empty."

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/10/nyregion/new-york-coronavirus-hospitals.html?searchResultPosition=2

"But the number of intensive care beds being used declined for the first time in the crisis, to 4,908, according to daily figures released on Friday. And the total number hospitalized with the virus, 18,569, was far lower than the darkest expectations."

https://montana.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=7c34f3412536439491adcc2103421d4b

 

[MikeyGriz]

Fair enough. But death rates aside, we know for certain what happens with this virus if the curve is not flattened: hospitals become overwhelmed. If there are no beds in the hospital, what do we do with the everyday concerns which require immediate care: heart attacks, strokes, car accidents, appendicitis, etc? THAT is the real issue the stay at home order attempted — rather successfully it seems for those states who implemented it — to eliminate.

We also know what happens when 35% of the economy disappears this quarter and 20%-30% become unemployed. Maybe you don't, but many people do. US GNP was almost $22 Trillion for the 4th quarter of 2019. 35% of that is about $8 Trillion. That amount could buy alot of things. 8,000,000,000,000. Divided by 100,000 deaths. That's $80 million per person, per quarter. I don't mean to be harsh, and don't anyone to die, but how much is a life worth to society. We send people to war. We allow people to drive cars and have risky jobs. You math whizzes should check my math and methodology.

Bozeman/Gallatin, with cases in the State, has 1 person hospitalized.

MT has 21 people hospitalized in the whole state.

Missoula had about 255 empty and available beds, according to an article last month.

"While acknowledging that testing capacity for COVID-19 in Montana is not unlimited, Gov. Steve Bullock said Friday there’s been sufficient inventory of critical materials to test everyone in the state who should be tested." April 3 Missoulian.

""Bozeman Deaconess and Bozeman Health Big Sky Medical Center have surge plans to meet that possible demand, Hill said, including 40 ventilators and 10 more coming soon." Quote from above post.

"Officials had estimated that 140,000 hospital beds might be needed to treat coronavirus patients. Only about 18,500 were in use by week’s end."

"To stave off a catastrophe, New York might need up to 140,000 hospital beds and as many as 40,000 intensive care units with ventilators."

"In yet another sign that the worst of the predictions had not yet come to pass, the Javits Center, the convention center where Mr. Cuomo offered his worrisome assessment, was treating only 300 patients. The rest of its roughly 2,500 beds were empty."

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/10/nyregion/new-york-coronavirus-hospitals.html?searchResultPosition=2

"But the number of intensive care beds being used declined for the first time in the crisis, to 4,908, according to daily figures released on Friday. And the total number hospitalized with the virus, 18,569, was far lower than the darkest expectations."

https://montana.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=7c34f3412536439491adcc2103421d4b

So what are the ramifications of having excess assets tied up and then not put into use? Shortages in other areas when needed? Assets tied up that could have been allocated for other uses? Costs wasted and assets wasted? How is this different than hoarding?

 

[PlayerRep]

"NBA Reportedly Eyeing 25-Day Plan for Return to Game Action" [But this seems to be only preparation, in case they can move ahead.]

"In the event that the NBA is given clearance to resume the 2019-20 season, the league wants to give players a chance to get back into game shape. According to ESPN’s Brian Windhorst, the league’s return to action will consist of a 25-day window split between individual workouts and a brief training camp.

"They're spending a lot of time getting a back-to-basketball plan ready. They hope they get to use it," Windhorst said on Sunday. "In talking to executives and trainers around the league, what they’re looking at is a 25-day return to basketball window."

He added that it will include an "11-day series of individual workouts, where there'd be social distancing for a period of time," and "then hopefully, if the clearance comes that they can play five-on-five basketball, a 14-day training camp."

"In the event that the NBA is given clearance to resume the 2019-20 season, the league wants to give players a chance to get back into game shape. According to ESPN’s Brian Windhorst, the league’s return to action will consist of a 25-day window split between individual workouts and a brief training camp."

As Windhorst repeatedly tries to make clear, this plan doesn’t mean that the league is leaning towards a return. Last week, commissioner Adam Silver struck down rumors that the NBA was "angling" towards shutting down the 2019-20 campaign, stating that a decision on the future of the season would not be made this month."

Complex: https://apple.news/AzTMZ3gslSU2mi3BIITrQ5g

 

[PlayerRep]

The outbreak could halt L.A. concerts and sporting events until 2021, Garcetti says

Los Angeles may hold off on allowing big gatherings until 2021 because of the coronavirus threat, according to an internal Los Angeles Fire Department email.

Mayor Eric Garcetti raised the issue during his weekly briefing Monday with a group of high-level staff from several departments, including Fire Chief Ralph Terrazas. Garcetti indicated during the conference call that “large gatherings such as concerts and sporting events may not be approved in the city for at least 1 year,” according to the email."

LA Times. Today. [you can sign up easily for free access to virus news.]

 

[mtgriz]

As predicted at the start of aggressive mitigation efforts, the more favorable numbers now versus the original projections is resulting in a flawed conclusion that the mitigation efforts are an overreaction.

 

[PlayerRep]

As predicted at the start of aggressive mitigation efforts, the more favorable numbers now versus the original projections is resulting in a flawed conclusion that the mitigation efforts are an overreaction.

Actually, the favorable numbers are because the models were all completely off for months. The mitigation efforts have helped but not nearly as much as the models were off. Also, even as the model numbers keep going down, note that the mitigation efforts were already built into most of the models.

 

[PlayerRep]

As predicted at the start of aggressive mitigation efforts, the more favorable numbers now versus the original projections is resulting in a flawed conclusion that the mitigation efforts are an overreaction.

MT and Ida have stay at home. ND, SD and Wyo don't have stay at home.

Ida has the most cases and deaths. MT, ND, SD and Wyo's numbers are fairly similar, if the meat plant people are not included in SD.

Wyo has 2 deaths. Deaths are 7, 9 and 6 in MT, ND and SD.

MT's cases per capital are now the lowest of the group, but not by much. If the meat plant is take-out of SD, then it was better numbers than MT. MT has 188 active cases, and ND and Wyo have 214 and 110.

MT's cases started going down significantly about the time of MT's stay in place order; however, the order wouldn't have had any effect on cases for about two weeks, from what I've read. The order was completely unnecessary, in my view, and just hurt a bunch more people and businesses.

I'm for the social distancing stuff generally, but it's too tight and doesn't have to be. It shouldn't be essential business. It should be okay for businesses that can show that they can social distance to remain open.

 

[mtgriz]

I can’t take credit for this (I read it in a meme) but opening some states and not others will be like having a peeing section of the swimming pool. Listen to the experts and once the testing and tracing is ready, let’s wade into the pool step by step.

 

[PlayerRep]

I can’t take credit for this (I read it in a meme) but opening some states and not others will be like having a peeing section of the swimming pool. Listen to the experts and once the testing and tracing is ready, let’s wade into the pool step by step.

I hope you don't take credit for that. In the US, that's just plain dumb. The whole US is not one big pool. Nothing that takes place in MT will have any impact on NY. The only thing that happens in NY that would impact MT would be if someone from NY who has the virus comes to MT and doesn't self-quarantine for 2 weeks.

 

[EverettGriz]

I can’t take credit for this (I read it in a meme) but opening some states and not others will be like having a peeing section of the swimming pool. Listen to the experts and once the testing and tracing is ready, let’s wade into the pool step by step.

I hope you don't take credit for that. In the US, that's just plain dumb. The whole US is not one big pool. Nothing that takes place in MT will have any impact on NY. The only thing that happens in NY that would impact MT would be if someone from NY who has the virus comes to MT and doesn't self-quarantine for 2 weeks.

Are we sure?

Let's watch and see what happens to neighboring states now that SD is a shit show. The states you mentioned lack density, which obviously is a major plus. But to suggest what happens in SD doesn't impact Montana seems shortsighted and dangerous to me.

But then, maybe I'm just more cautious because I know otherwise perfectly healthy people 3 months ago who are now deceased, and I've watched the pain and anguish of their families, not being able to be with them while they die alone, or provide closure by giving them a proper funeral.

 

[indian-outlaw]

I can’t take credit for this (I read it in a meme) but opening some states and not others will be like having a peeing section of the swimming pool. Listen to the experts and once the testing and tracing is ready, let’s wade into the pool step by step.

I hope you don't take credit for that. In the US, that's just plain dumb. The whole US is not one big pool. Nothing that takes place in MT will have any impact on NY. The only thing that happens in NY that would impact MT would be if someone from NY who has the virus comes to MT and doesn't self-quarantine for 2 weeks.

That is one of the stupidest things I've heard someone say.
Not sure if this is news to you but the virus was brought to everywhere it exists today with the exception of Wuhan China. Montana is not an island with no access.

 

[EverettGriz]

Agree I-O. My fear is that the less densely populated places are just slower to develop. It would be naive to think that one of the infected truckers from the meat packing plant in SD didn't stop at a gas station, a rest area, a convenience store, a restaurant in Montana. Now you potentially have dozens of locals infected, and what's worse, they don't know it.

This virus could devastate small Montana towns without hospitals.