EverettGriz said:
https://missoulian.com/news/state-and-regional/university-of-wyoming-analysis-argues-social-distancing-outweighs-alternative-by-5-2-trillion/article_27fe4198-b477-5bbc-afdb-f75a793ecdc5.html?fbclid=IwAR3EHERbLrRh3LuKiDTJDWuMdLRQmMwKXdQr603T5s6MlKsEFSFTMziYxZk#tracking-source=home-the-latest
Huh.
1. The "study" is a joke, in my view. And it's not a study; it's another model, which is presumably way off base, like virtually all of them have been. Completely irrelevant and off base. I've gotten some feedback from others who agree. Written by a young associate professor who seems to be originally from Sweden. Her assumptions are wrong. The fact that Bullock has sited it, without even reading it I assume because it hasn't yet been published, shows how little he knows about economics and the virus. The fact that you cite it too, is the same. How can a governor being citing a newspaper article in an important decision he is making. I hope he isn't getting his info from airline magazines, like Regan apparently did.
From the Wyo. "study":
"Wyoming analysis
found that social distancing efforts to slow the spread of the novel coronavirus outweigh the economic costs of such measures by trillions of dollars, while also saving more than a million lives.
[Who had advocated no social distancing? Wonder what the analysis says about the positive affect of washing hands, covering mouth on coughs/sneezes, and other basic things? Is that even factored in, and what is the quantity? What good does it do to compare social distancing to no social distancing. No one is going to just end all social distancing.]
"The $10 million figure used by researchers as a value for each American’s life is a
“controversial number,” Thunstrom said, and it doesn’t take into account people’s age." [The study doesn't value the hundreds of thousands of kids who may die in 2020. See below.]
"It also indicates that more than 1.2 million lives will be saved, both as a direct result of decreased mortality from the disease itself and as a result of the health care system not being overrun by a wave of coronavirus patients.
“Based on our ... model, the total number of infections is projected to reach 287 million without social distancing and 188 million with social distancing,” Thunstrom and her colleagues wrote. “When combined with the differential mortality rates [
what mortality rate was used?] when the health system capacity threshold is exceeded versus when not, the difference between the infection curves translates into about 1.24 million lives saved.”
[I bet the "study" uses a mortality rate that is way too high.]
2. Do you care about this?
""
U.N. warns economic downturn could kill hundreds of thousands of children in 2020
Hundreds of thousands of children could die this year due to the global economic downturn sparked by the coronavirus pandemic and tens of millions more could fall into extreme poverty as a result of the crisis, the United Nations warned on Thursday."
"Hundreds of thousands of children could die this year due to the global economic downturn sparked by the coronavirus pandemic and tens of millions more could fall into extreme poverty as a result of the crisis, the United Nations warned on Thursday.
The world body also said in a risk report that nearly 369 million children across 143 countries who normally rely on school meals for a reliable source of daily nutrition have now been forced to look elsewhere.
“We must act now on each of these threats to our children,” U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said. “Leaders must do everything in their power to cushion the impact of the pandemic. What started as a public health emergency has snowballed into a formidable test for the global promise to leave no one behind.”
The United Nations said an estimated 42 million to 66 million children could fall into extreme poverty as a result of the coronavirus crisis this year, adding to the estimated 386 million children already in extreme poverty in 2019.
The U.N. report on children also said 188 countries have imposed countrywide school closures, affecting more than 1.5 billion children."
Reuters: https://apple.news/A2MjiQEsbQRynkwOT1c4rgQ
