Wyoming Cowboys Scouting Report

Go time – the 2014 season is upon us and I’m hoping this updated scouting report will show some of the numbers I normally compile in a more visual fashion with a few charts and graphs instead of just text.

Up first, the Griz are headed to Wyoming in a much anticipated FBS matchup – maybe one of the best chances for a Griz win vs an FBS team in a while, going back to when they beat Idaho 4 years in a row back around 1999 – 2002. For the Griz there’s some upcoming challenges that are challenging to prepare for, we’ll call them the “known unknowns” (bonus points for a source on that).

Known Unknown #1 Craig Bohl, 3 time NDSU national champ head coach takes over, bringing a system that will change from a hurry-up / spread / speed offense into a slower, powerful, grind it out offense. How will that equate to success for this team though? This team is mostly spread players now being asked to play power football. Bohl is a smart coach, will he use some of the team’s skill and mix it up? There’s no game film save some scrimmage highlights for the Griz to go off of.

Known Unknown #2 Wyo’s defense last year was really really bad. Now with a new coach and plan moving forward this team will come forth with 9 senior starters most of whom were starters last year. So will the defense vastly improve? Same guys but a new coach and new style. Again, the Griz have little to know insight for what to prepare for.

Known Unknown #3 The Grizzlies depth/academic/injury issues in key positions. Stud WR Ellis Henderson may play sparingly, we’re breaking in 5 brand new linemen, and we’ve got 3 other WRs that are presumed out for this game. Add in the kicking situation is a toss-up with coach Delaney leaning for in-game experience over total accuracy. The Griz coaches clearly have a plan – but how will that translate on the field?

Fall Camp Report

Normally here we re-cap games… but this is the season opener. Here’s some press clippings from Bohl’s fall camp:

- In an 8/16 scrimmage that had 98 total plays the offense showed it was fitting into the new system. No flashy stats from a single player but a healthy 5.4 yards per rush and 6.7 yards per pass attempt. Both QBs had good completion % but not a lot of yards while the top 3 statistical running backs all had real nice YPC numbers with Hill at 14 ypc, Evans at 8.7 ypc, and Fort at 10.5 ypc. The punter had an erratic day with 4 punts, one at 70 yards but the other three averaging just 32 yards. Their kicker, Stuart Williams, went 4 for 5, three of which were over 40 yards. Only 1 forced turnover for the defense.

Statistics

With my first scouting report it’s always a crap-shoot because I’m basing all of the stats off of the prior season. Well, Wyo had a new coach and new system – so these numbers are practically junk. As we move forward they’ll be more applicable, so take these with a big grain of salt.

Yards per game:



As you can see Montana’s numbers should reflect what the coaches are hoping for again, a balanced attack with a little bit heavier yards in the passing game. What stands out to me is the Cowboy’s rush defense. With a lot of the same guys they’re returning a unit that allowed 220 rush yards per game. This could match up well for the Grizzlies rushing game.

On the other side of the coin comparing Wyo’s offense from last year to the Grizzly defense last year probably isn’t even worth analyzing. It does show though that Wyo’s offense did put up some big stats – something Montana needs to be aware of, a sub-par FBS team or not, Wyo has guys that put up big numbers.


Points Per game:



In both cases the Grizzlies stats hold the advantage. If Wyo’s personnel on defense lead to similar result the Griz might find the endzone a little easier to reach that maybe initially expected? Being based on last season I feel confident in what the Grizzly defense and offense SHOULD do, for Wyo… no clue.

As we dig deeper I’ve got 4 charts here which track how each team scores over the quarter.

First up, the Grizzly offense vs the Wyo defense. Last year it seemed that as the game wore on Wyo’s defense got worse (check the next chart – the Grizzly defense was the opposite). Also from the one scrimmage report Wyo’s defense showed this issue too with poor tackling showing up as the scrimmage went on. The Grizzly offense last year had a hard time building momentum until the 4th quarter.




Next we’ve got the flip side of that chart – the Grizzly defense vs the Wyo offense. If only we were playing last year’s team! Haha, their offense and the points it scores matches up with what our defense allows. For this Saturday though, toss it all out.



The last two charts compare offense to offense and defense to defense. It kind of paints a picture of where teams could take an advantage in scoring and grabbing the lead in this game. The key call out to me is how each teams defense headed in a different direction after halftime.





One last visual look back at these teams side-by-side, how they stack up in the red zone, once again if we could hope that Wyo’s defense can stay the same there’s some great opportunities for the Griz. The Grizzlies when they’re in the red zone come away scoring a TD 70% of the time – while Wyo’s defense was allowing TDs 67% of the time to opposing teams. On the other side, Wyo’s offense was even more effective in the RZ than the Griz – however here’s where things are different, the Grizzly defense was pretty darn good keeping teams out of the end zone once they got into the RZ last season



A few other worthwhile stats:

- UM was +18 last year in turnovers while Wyo was -3. The Griz forced as many fumbles as INTs (16 each) while Wyo’s defense forced 9 interceptions and 11 fumbles.

- Last year Wyo’s punt coverage and kick coverage wasn’t too good, allowed almost 8 yards per punt return and 22 yards per return on kickoffs.

- Wyo was pretty good on offense with a 45% 3rd down conversion rate, compare to the Grizzly offense which was just a little off that at 43%.

Players to watch

#11 – QB – Koby Kirkegaard. Koby is a big QB ideal for Bohl’s pocket-style system, he’s 6-3 and 205 pounds. He had a very solid fall camp, practice and scrimmage press shows he’s an efficient passer that is pretty good especially in short to medium ranges.

#21 – RB – Shaun Wick. Wick was last season’s main running back, he amassed 979 total rushing yards, 9 rushing TDs, also 118 receiving yards and 2 more receiving TDs. Wick is 5-10 and a burly 212 pounds, he’ll be a load for our defense.

#7 – RB – DJ May. May missed all of last season with an injury but played the year before as a freshman. Currently in the depth chart he’s listed ahead of Wick. A similar size guy at 5-10, 205.

#9 – WR – Jalen Claiborne. A bit of a shorter WR at 5-9 and 175 he’ll size up well with our shorter corners. Claiborne was the 4th overall WR last year with 452 yards and 5 TDs, but he had one of the higher YPC averages of the regular WRs. He was also last years PR and KR. He’s their big all-purpose yardage guy.

#33 – WR – Dominic Rufran. Rufran is the #1 WR and will be a handful for our secondary. 960 yards last year, 8 TDs. He’s listed as the 21st best player in the Mountain West and landed on the pre-season Biletnikoff watch list. He’s 6 feet tall and 188 pounds.

#55 – DE – Eddie Yarborough. The first game our brand new tackles get to start out with is against one of the best D-ends in the Mountain West. All Eddie did last year was tally up 89 tackles, 12 TFLs, 6.5 sacks, 2 forced and 2 recovered fumbles, and he blocked a kick. Eddie’s a big guy, he’s 6-3 and 251 pounds.

#1 – MLB – Jordan Stanton. The middle of the defense and the leader in the stat books. 134 tackles last season, 10 TFLs, 2 sacks, and 2 interceptions. Stanton is a little short for a middle linebacker at 6 feet but he’s almost 250 pounds. But last season is in the books and Stanton is now listed as a co-starter next to #53 Alex Borgs, a taller but lighter (6-2, 230) mike-backer.

#20 – CB – Blair Burns. Burns was 6th on the team with 61 tackles and will presumably draw Jamaal Jones in coverage more often than not. He had just 1 int last year but lead the team with 7 pass breakups, he also recovered 1 fumble.

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Keys to a Grizzly Victory

1. Help Thiebes and Dietrich. These two have been practicing against Wags and Holmes for almost a month now, however at the Mountain West level just about everyone is at or above Wags and Holmes level. Putting our two brand new tackles on an island against this talented Wyo D-line would be a nightmare. Use the TE to chip or help block, also Jordan Canada is an excellent pass-blocker, have him help out too.

2. Stay balanced if the run game can find traction. Wyo’s rush defense was bad bad bad last season with a lot of the same guys they’ll be using this year. Add in they’re breaking in two new safeties and look to be rotating their LBs a lot – we have to have the middle of the O-line win in the trench and allow for the running game to keep the Cowboys defense guessing.

3. Quick passes, screens, hurry up. Go quick, use the skill this team has between JJ, the WRs, and our running backs. Don’t use too many long and drawn out plays or else that D-line and the linebackers will be all over JJ. Honestly I think some zone-read might work well in this game, hell… JJ’s our QB, see what happens if you roll it out a bit.

4. Stuff the run. Maybe one of the two biggest things the Griz will need to do on Saturday to keep in this game. Wyoming had talented running backs and a new and inexperienced QB. All signs point to a ton of hand-offs and rushes. Add in they’ve got an experienced O-line and a head coach that loves smash-mouth football.

5. Win on special teams. I think the Griz have the better punter. As for kicker… who knows. Wyo didn’t attempt much at all last year while the Grizzlies are going with Lider but I believe are bringing Greenberg and Sullivan too. Wyo last season had issues on kick and punt coverage – not having Ellis hurts but maybe Nguyen or Canada could open things up a bit.

6. Take advantage of the x-factor. When healthy last season TraVon Van made this offense so incredibly dangerous. I applaud the coaches trying to find ways to get him in space more and I hope to see a heavy dose of him out there. Get him some screens, send him up the field as the Z-wr, get him going and juking past would-be tacklers.

7. Tackle. Yep…. Tackle. Limit the arm tackles, missed tackles, being caught on your feet, etc. The team has worked hard to improve tackling this spring/fall – time to prove it.

8. Win the turnover battle. Last season and the season before I think the Griz were near flawless when they won the turnover battle. It would seem the staple of a Delaney team is that if they force more turnovers than the amount they give up – they win the game.

9. Embrace the atmosphere and prepare for a wild crowd. Near sell-out, excitement over a new coach, many fans expecting an easy win against what they’d perceive as an inferior team… it’s going to be rowdy at first but could taper off if the Griz hang around.


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The challenge of course is that against a team with superior size, equipment, staff, roster, and facilities is that the Griz could complete many of the points above needed to win, but still lose. The long standing issue is that when FCS goes up against FBS they’re largely out-manned and in over their heads. Not all the time, but numbers show a vast majority.

Personally I see a low scoring game. Wyo will have a new signal caller and is going to run it all day long. If the Griz can stay fresh on defense, prove they’re on the same/similar level, and keep the Wyo offense from grinding them out – the Cowboys may not score a ton of points. On the other side I’m worried about this inexperienced O-line the Griz have and our kicking situation. It could be a long day to get traction in the trenches and JJ could be running for his life a lot. If the Griz had some of their experienced tackles and a 100% Ellis Henderson I may tip my choice to a Grizzlies upset win. However, they don’t, and I think it’s enough to keep the Griz from pulling this one off. I’m thinking in a lower-scoring affair Wyoming will come out the winner, 19-10.

The biggest factor that could prevent a loss will be quality play from our O-line. They’re the biggest make or break (I think) for this game. Lets see these guys get after it, if they can push the Wyo d-line around and give JJ time – it’s a whole different ballgame.

GO GRIZ!

Ugh - those charts came across awfully small, you can click them for larger images. I might revise those with a different file host than the default egriz one.

Good article on some rising stars from Wyo's fall camp:

http://trib.com/news/opinion/blogs/cowboys/wyoming-coaches-evaluate-the-pleasant-surprises-from-fall-camp/article_68005092-67b5-52ff-8c47-dd9989948246.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Every fall camp, a few players seem to step out of the woodwork that the coaching staff and fans may not have been expecting to contribute heading into the season.

In Craig Bohl's first camp, that wasn't any different in Laramie.

Here's a breakdown of a few players that turned heads going into the 2014 season opener on Saturday.

RB Brian Hill -- 6-1/204, freshman

When asked how Hill was able to come into his first fall camp and leap over several more experienced peers on the depth chart, running backs coach Mike Bath didn't mince his words.

“The young man has a very high level of football intelligence," Bath said. "I’ve coached pretty much every position on offense except o-line, and his football intelligence coming in as a freshman is as high as any kid I’ve ever had. You don’t always expect that from a running back.

"You take that and add in some natural physical ability. And also, his desire and want-to is great -- not just good, but great. He wants to be great. You add all those things together, and that’s why a freshman plays as a true freshman.”

Physically, Hill has all the qualities Bohl and offensive coordinator Brent Vigen look for in a running back. He possesses breakaway speed, but also has a strong enough lower body to be able to brush off casual tackles.

For any freshman, though, the largest obstacle is the mental progression. And Bohl has been impressed with Hill's ability to digest a new offense and still play with speed.

“We knew he had the physical capabilities. Physically, when you look at him, that’s the prototype tailback that we’re looking for," Bohl said. "We just didn’t know how he’d pick up the system and his reads and stuff like that. We’re well pleased with his progress.”

Bohl did temper that enthusiasm, though, by emphasizing that they typically use two running backs, and D.J. May and Shaun Wick will be those players. Hill may receive a few carries on Saturday, but it depends on the guys ahead of him.

OG Sam Hardy -- 6-3/294, sophomore

When Bohl first evaluated his personnel last spring, Hardy may not have stood out as an eventual starter on the offensive line.

But over time, that perception has shifted.

“When we put him there, all of a sudden you’d see a flash every once in a while," Bohl said. "You go, ‘Wait a minute.’ He didn’t know what he was doing [early] in the spring. And then as the spring went along, we saw that there’s something to work with here. We looked and said, ‘Well, maybe this is a long term project.’

"But he really had a dedicated summer. He came in and with how he worked this summer and progressed in fall camp, we started to say, ‘This guy is more than just a long range project. This is a guy that, when we’re comparing him against the other guys, he’s going to be playing some.’”

That opinion was reflected on Monday's depth chart, where Hardy is listed as even with established starter Jake Jones.

Hardy's greatest attribute, Bohl said, is his quickness. The 6-3, 294-pound athlete excelled on the defensive line in high school, and the burst didn't evaporate when he switched positions.

“The thing that he’s got that probably is unique is the quick twitch muscle fiber," Bohl said. "He’s got some suddenness to him. For his size, to have that kind of quickness, that’s a real asset for him. He has utilized that.

"He has good strength. I wouldn’t say he has great strength, but he has good strength. But his overall quickness has really helped him. He gets on people quicker.”

FB Jordan Ellis -- 6-2/230, redshirt sophomore

Ellis, a UT-San Antonio transfer, is still listed as a defensive end on Wyoming's online roster, and that mistake tells you just how recently he made the switch to fullback.

Last week, after coming away impressed with Ellis' practice tape, Bath decided to pull him over to the offensive end and see if he could contribute at a different position.

“He’s kind of an example of what we tell these young men. We’re going to always evaluate practice tape -- not only on our side of the ball, but on other sides of the ball," Bath said. "He kept on showing up as a third or fourth defensive end. We saw him play with effort. We saw him running around. We saw him be physical.

"We’re sitting there at the fullback position, and I felt that we needed to add another person to the position because I wasn’t exactly satisfied with where we were at.”

Ellis made such immediate progress as a fullback that he was listed at second on the depth chart, behind only redshirt freshman Drew Van Maanen. Freshmen walk-ons Matt List, Wade Cicierski and Justin Escudero had also been competing at the position.

While it's only been a week, Bath is optimistic about Ellis' transition.

“We’ve seen enough where we can say, ‘OK, this is where we’re at with him. We’re going to continue to grow and see what happens,” Bath said.

***

In other news, Bohl said the coaching staff has not yet come to a decision about whether freshman defensive tackle Sidney Malauulu will redshirt this season. As recently as a few days ago, it seemed certain that he would receive a chance to play. But apparently, the jury is still out.

As for other freshmen, Hill and cornerback Robert Priester will definitely play in some capacity this season.

***

Wyoming announced Tuesday that there are still roughly 2,400 tickets available for Saturday's game against Montana. The Grizzlies returned 1,000 of their 2,000-ticket allotment for the game, so those too are now available for purchase.

Click to expand...

[tweet]https://twitter.com/mikevorel/status/504390069885472768[/tweet]

Check the matchups, and you'll see that Wyoming's defensive ends should be understandably confident on Saturday, lining up across from two first-time starting offensive tackles from the University of Montana.

Research will indicate this, but don't expect Puletasi to confirm.

“I don’t really know about their offensive line," Puletasi said Monday, answering each question in the most unassuming way possible. "Just looking at film, they have a new offensive line. So we don’t know what they’re preparing to do with us, and vice versa.”

While Puletasi's confidence is unspoken, his head coach isn't afraid to vocalize his faith in Wyoming's defensive line. Craig Bohl has coached some good ones at North Dakota State, including Kyle Emanuel, who racked up 7.5 sacks and 10 tackles for loss for the Bison last season and was named to the 2014 College Football Performance Awards defensive ends watch list.

After assessing Wyoming's personnel at the defensive end, nose tackle and defensive tackle positions, the first-year Wyoming head coach believes the front four could be a strength of the Cowboys' defense.

“Similar to the University of Montana, we feel that we have a good defensive front as well," Bohl said. "Eddie Yarbrough played really well last year. Patrick Mertens has developed into a great defensive tackle. To really make the Tampa 2 system go, you really have to have great push.

"We’ve got a really good feeling about our defensive front. We’re hoping we’ll match up well come Saturday.”

After a sophomore season in which he racked up 6.5 sacks and was named to the All-Mountain West First Team, it's hard to imagine who Yarbrough wouldn't match up favorably against. Add that to the fact that Montana standout offensive tackle John Schmaing will miss the season because of academic concerns, and some chop-licking might be in order.

The end goal, of course, is to disrupt Montana quarterback Jordan Johnson. The 6-1, 195-pound redshirt senior passed for 3,387 yards and 32 touchdowns last season in his first year in a pro-style offense.

If Johnson doesn't become immediately acquainted with Yarbrough and Puletasi on Saturday afternoon, the Cowboys could be in for a rough day.

“Definitely, you want to try to keep him in the pocket," Yarbrough said of Johnson. "But at the same time, since he touches the ball every play, you’re not going to be able to shut a guy like that down. You just try to limit what he does in the game.

"We’re going to try to corral him a little bit, but he’s a great athlete, so we’re going to have to bring our lunch pails with us.”

Ultimately, the head-to-head collision of Yarbrough and Puletasi and Montana tackles Jackson Thiebes and Devon Dietrich will go a long way in determining Saturday's outcome.

And after a month of tagging off on untouchable quarterbacks, Puletasi -- the silent killer -- is itching to drag an unwilling victim to the turf.

“Oh, I’m ready for that," Puletasi said, forming a small grin, the volume of his voice rising ever-so-slightly. "I’m ready for my first sack.”

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http://www.mwcconnection.com/2014-mountain-west-football/2014/8/21/6055187/wyoming-football-preview-of-the-montana-grizzlies" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Great analysis, BW. Unfortunately, most of the prior year comparisons are truly out the door due to a new coach and new offense and defense. I really like your keys to the game. Keep an eye on their DE, Eddie Yarbrough, and his matchup with our tackles.

Positive Additions for the Griz:
Returning a ton of skill position talent
Vastly improved tackling since spring drills
Improved strength program with Gerber beginning in spring
Coaches have now been in place for a couple of years
Speedier and more confident defense
Team leadership and chemistry

Negatives for the Griz:
Inexperience on o-line
Inconsistent kicking game
Loss of Ellis as WR/KR/PR?

Compared to last year, the only real negative addition is the o-line and it's a big deal. But the o-line was playing at a fairly high level the last week of fall camp. The inconsistent kicking game was the same last year as well. Still don't know if we will have Ellis and if he will be effective - could be huge gain or loss. However, look at all the additional positives for this team. In my opinion, they more than outweigh the negatives. I expect this Griz team to be improved from last year and we should see it this weekend if the o-line plays at an average level.

The stadium is at 7200' elevation and usually very windy. "Anyone that's played the game" knows that to be a challenge for Montana's thinned depth chart. It also may partly explain Wyoming's declining defense as the game proceeds, though I would expect Bohl to change that. The risk of wearing down is greater for Montana than for Wyoming who lives at this elevation. But MD had a lot of experience (and success) preparing CSU teams to play in Laramie, CSU teams that were not as thin as Montana now is. NAU is just under 7000' and we had little energy there all night last year; I hope we can suck it up for this one. This is our best chance to finally get a win over Wyoming.

Known Unknowns: a favorite quote from former secretary of defense Donald Rumsfeld to reporters. Became a way for him to manipulate conversations and show he was the smartest man in the room. Really good three part article in the NYT last year on Rumsfeld.

Anyway good work BW. The tables were a great add.

Nice write-up.....thanks :thumb:

kemajic said:

The stadium is at 7200' elevation and usually very windy. "Anyone that's played the game" knows that to be a challenge for Montana's thinned depth chart. It also may partly explain Wyoming's declining defense as the game proceeds, though I would expect Bohl to change that. The risk of wearing down is greater for Montana than for Wyoming who lives at this elevation. But MD had a lot of experience (and success) preparing CSU teams to play in Laramie, CSU teams that were not as thin as Montana now is. NAU is just under 7000' and we had little energy there all night last year; I hope we can suck it up for this one. This is our best chance to finally get a win over Wyoming.

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I agree 100%

I like the charts. Thx.

This is a nice summary of the game. I think this will be a HIGH scoring affair though. Good work... :egriz:

I would rather look at the Wy hotties thread than read quotes from Rumsfield. Nice recap as usual BW with one exception. To me, the key to the game is JJ. Im hoping kemajic's point isnt too big of a factor. If the O line struggles JJ can extend plays, he's proven this against better talent. Even with the guys that are out, we have some serious talent for JJ to target. The ability of JJ to be in space making plays will be the key to the game.

I agree with Brint that this game will be low scoring. But I really don't have a feel for this game either way. I don't believe it's the "known unknowns" though. I think it's just "unknowns".
Fans will just have to wait and see what happens....

CV Griz Fan said:

I agree with Brint that this game will be low scoring. But I really don't have a feel for this game either way. I don't believe it's the "known unknowns" though. I think it's just "unknowns".
Fans will just have to wait and see what happens....

Click to expand...

Yes, I could see either team winning or a high or low scoring game. UM could either play well or not well. That's all I know. In fact, that's more than I know.

I now know it is Griz Football Season! Nothing prepares ones self for a Griz game until Brint's report. THANK YOU AGAIN FOR THIS! MUCH APPRECIATED!

thanks b/w, I liked the charts and as the season develops these charts will be a quick study into strengths and weakness of teams to be played,,,,also I agree with p.r. statement above, I just do not have a feel for this one....go griz !

I would appreciate standard error bars next time. And, maybe some inferential statistics.

Good report. I think another key to (unlikely) victory will be to avoid third and long situations, which goes along with Mr. Wahlberg's emphasis on quick passes. I hope Hynson/Gragg use the pass to set up the run, rather than vice-versa. You know Bohl will stack the box early.

Bobby Hauck breaks down how you attack the Cover 2 defense:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gcZ3O0TrIIU&feature=player_embedded[/youtube]