Our season is now in full swing and while we as fans are probably still basking in the glow that was one of the very best Griz games ever – the Griz have moved on and are locking their sights in on Cal Poly. This is our annual night game and it’s a grey-out – so make sure to wear your dark grey to the game! Of course we all remember the CPSLO game last year where Poly beat the Griz 41-21 mostly on the legs of their QB Chris Brown who had over 225 rushing and 100 passing. It was a rough defeat for the Griz as they saw a 14-14 halftime tie turn into a bad beating by a Poly team that ran all over our defense. I went back to my recap after that game and I noticed that not only did we lose KVA in that game but also Whitted. Two of our better defenders and tacklers on the team.
As we all know Poly hasn’t played a game yet this season. Last year they were looking like a playoff lock after winning 5 games in a row including wins against Montana and the next week against Montana State. However they dropped 2 of their last 3 games (@ISU and vs Davis). As a 7-5 bubble team the playoff selection committee chose both the teams they beat (UM and MSU) over them. The general argument as I recall was mostly strength of schedule and the late ISU and UCD losses really stung Poly.
Let’s hop right in to the stats, it’s tricky to stack these because we’re comparing one Montana game vs 12 Cal Poly games from last year. I’ll point out some side by side stuff from the 2014 UM defense and 2014 CSM offense as well;
General Stats
Looking at yardage per game, here’s who holds the advantage:
Passing yards Montana (434 for UM vs 131 for CPSLO = 304 more YPG)
Rushing yards CPSLO (110 for UM vs 351 for CPSLO = 241 more YPG)
Total Offense Montana (544 for UM vs 482 for CPSLO = 62 more YPG)
Pass defense Montana (198 allowed for UM vs 235 allowed for CPSLO = 37 less YPG allowed)
Rush defense CPLSO (230 allowed for UM vs 180 allowed for CPSLO = 50 more YPG allowed)
Total defense CPSLO (428 allowed for UM vs 415 allowed for CPSLO = 13 more YPG allowed)
• It is worth pointing out on the defensive side if you use UM’s 2014 defense as a measure the UM’s defense was actually better in rushing yards allowed (125) and better in total defense 359 allowed vs Poly’s 415 allowed).
• Additionally if you use CSM’s 2014 passing numbers the total offense would still tip in favor of Montana but about 20 yards per game less than the current gap.
No total advantage when using 2015 UM vs 2014 CPSLO. Montana advantage when using 2014 numbers for UM/CSM stats by a whopping 5-1 ratio.
Other Stats worthy of mention:
Offense Points Scored UM (38 ppg for UM vs 34 ppg for CPSLO)
Defense points Allowed CPSLO (35 ppg for UM vs 29 ppg for CPSLO)
Turnover margin CPLSO (-1 for UM vs +8 for CPSLO with UM’s offense stats they were +15 last season)
Fieldgoal % UM (100% for UM vs 100% for CPLSO on just 2-2 kicking last year – giving UM the nod since in 1 game we made more fieldgoals than Poly attempted all of last year)
Punt returns CPSLO (0 yards per return for UM vs 6 yards per return for CPSLO)
Kick returns None(17 for UM vs 17 for CPSLO)
T.O.P. CPSLO (24:44 for UM vs 31:42 for CPSLO)
Red Zone Defense (touchdowns) CPSLO (100% allowed for UM vs 69% allowed for CPSLO)
Red Zone Offense (touchdowns) CPSLP (40% scored for UM vs 84% scored for CPSLO)
• More items of note, the 2014 UM defense averaged 21 ppg, had a +15 turnover margin, and allowed RZ TD’s just 46% of the time.
• CSM’s offense had a 66% TZ touchdown % so not enough to tip that stat
Advantage CPSLO 6 categories to 2. However if you use prior year general stats the advantage tips to UM in the favor of 5-3
Players to Watch
#9 Chris Brown – QB We all know Brown, this guy broke records against us last year. Poly’s success last year (and the prior year) hinged on his health. He is arguably one of the 2 best QBs in the conference. A legit dual threat triple option QB. Last year he ran for 105 yards per game and passed for 125 yards per game. He lead his team in rushing attempts (249), rushing yards (1269), and rushing TDs (17). He also threw 12 TDs to just 3 interceptions and completed 60% of his total passes.
#24 Kori Garcia – RB The starting Wing-back for Poly Garcia was their other 1000 yard rusher last season. The 5-9, 190 running back had 1039 rushing yards and 7 rushing TDs on the season. He was also 2nd in total team receptions and had 146 total receiving yards and 2 TDs.
#28 Joe Protheroe – FB Poly’s new starting fullback, he’s a big dude at 6-0 and 225 pounds. Poly’s going to look at the NDSU tape and will use him to test our DT’s and MLB’s. Last year in a backup role he ran for 185 yards and 2 TDs.
#8 Jordan Hines – WR He’s no Ramses Barden but he’s Poly’s “big man” WR. Hines was 2nd on the team last year with 312 receiving yards and 4 TDs. As I recall he’s a good blocking WR as well.
#12 Roland Jackson – WR Jackson was Poly’s home run threat guy, he’s really small for an FCS player, 5-10 and listed at… 150 pounds (typo maybe?). Jackson averaged almost 30 yards per catch on the team last year and was the team leader in receiving yards with 415. I believe Jackson will also be the main kick returner as well.
#48 Josh Letuligasenoa – DE 65 tackles last season for Josh, he had 6 TFLs, was tied for 1st on the team with 3 sacks, and lead the team with 2 forced fumbles and 1 fumble recovery.
#21 Chris Fletcher – CB The senior cornerback is the team’s leading returning tackler with 68 tackles in 2014. He also lead the team with 11 pass break ups. The 5-9 corner had 1 interception last year.
#9 Karlton Dennis – CB Poly’s other starting corner from last season returned. He lead the team in interceptions with 3 and had 48 tackles to go with it.
#11 Burton De Koning – WLB The weak side linebacker, De Koning had 43 tackles and was used to rush the QB a lot, he lead the team in QB hits.
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Keys to a Grizzly victory
1. Always account for Chris Brown and put the hurt on him. A fresh and presumably wildly motivated Gamboa will be huge in this. Brown runs this offense perfectly and last year absolutely destroyed our defense with his feet. Need to hit him even when he pitches the ball on outside runs. Watch his throws too – we saw plenty of delays/fakes where his WRs could quickly get beyond the defense and he’s an accurate thrower.
2. Improve the red zone defense. Last week against NDSU they scored a TD in every trip to the red zone. In 2014 the Griz defense was VERY good at not allowing that to happen. Poly last year only kicked 2 fieldgoals the whole season because of an early injury to their kicker. I assume with him back they’ll try more kicks, but in the wake of not having a reliable kicker for fieldgoals last year they were incredibly efficient in the red zone scoring TDs. The Grizzly defense needs to improve over last week and force more fieldgoal attempts.
3. Prevent the big play. Twice NDSU set up big scores on fakes that fooled our defense. The opening TD was a play-fake that caught our safety flat-footed and left a wide open TD pass out there. Then in the 2nd half a nicely designed screen caught our linebackers unaware and it wound up setting up a 1st and goal (and eventual TD). Poly will try some home run shots. We’ll need our safeties and linebackers to not get fooled.
4. Keep improving on stopping the ball carrier in his tracks. NDSU’s earlier scoring success came on some questionable tackling from a lot of our defenders. As no surprise as the game went on and the tackling improved NDSU’s success to break tackles and extend plays rapidly diminished. The Griz will need to start out where they left off from the NDSU game.
5. Out-pace Cal Poly. This game has the potential to light up the scoreboard. Last year Poly’s fast paced offense averaged about 80 plays per game. Meanwhile Stitt wants 90+ plays. This game could turn into a shootout if both offenses run this many plays. The Griz will need to try to not let Poly get rolling as much on offense, and meanwhile have a game similar to or better than NDSU on offense.
6. Attack Poly’s inexperienced players. Just like NDSU Cal Poly has new safeties, returning corners that are both at or under 5-10, and are missing their top tacklers from the season before. Poly’s D-line is fairly experienced but they’ve got some new linebackers and the middle of the field is going to get tested big time with this offense.
7. Improve execution on offense, especially in the red zone. 2 of 5 RZ trips resulted in TDs last week. Against a high scoring offense like Poly’s that will not cut it. The 2nd to last red zone trip for Montana was a mess – the team wound up going backwards after getting to the 3 yard line and had to kick a field goal. Little to no drops from the WRs as well. Ellis dropped an earlier would-be TD on a screen last week and if you remember last year Jones had some rather painful drops too.
8. Give Brady time. We saw two things last week, first that Brady took a beating late in the game and second that when he had good time he was much more accurate. Considering he picked apart NDSU’s Tampa-2 that rushed just 4 I can’t help but wonder if Poly is going to try to blitz like crazy and see if the O-line can hold up.
9. No big kick returns. Last week I believe the Bison averaged 31 yards per return. Tighten up there!
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This game promises to be as grueling and tense as last weeks. While the Griz bring the benefit of being at home, having a game under their belts, and having a big boost in confidence that doesn’t assure a single thing. Poly returns 16 total starters including a possibly Big Sky MVP. They made us look pretty bad last year and Brown is an expert at this offense. Add in we’ve seemed to always have issues with Poly. Look at the scores over the last decade:
21-41 loss
21-14 win
37-23 win
33-35 loss
35-23 win
30-28 win
10-9 win
36-27 win (2005 regular season)
21-35 loss (2005 playoff game)
That puts the total scoring at 244 for Montana and 235 for Cal Poly or essentially a 1 point per game positive margin for Montana over these 9 games (27 ppg to 26 ppg).
I think NDSU exposed some rushing game issues that need to be cleaned up and Poly’s going to try to do the same. This one very well could come down to the last team with the ball… just like last week. I’m thinking we’re in for another wild ride. If the weather is cooler and especially raining that could play favor to a ground team like Poly (maybe). I’m going to say in another edge of your seat game the Griz roll into their first bye week 2-0 and beat Poly with a late TD… 42-38.
GO GRIZ!
As we all know Poly hasn’t played a game yet this season. Last year they were looking like a playoff lock after winning 5 games in a row including wins against Montana and the next week against Montana State. However they dropped 2 of their last 3 games (@ISU and vs Davis). As a 7-5 bubble team the playoff selection committee chose both the teams they beat (UM and MSU) over them. The general argument as I recall was mostly strength of schedule and the late ISU and UCD losses really stung Poly.
Let’s hop right in to the stats, it’s tricky to stack these because we’re comparing one Montana game vs 12 Cal Poly games from last year. I’ll point out some side by side stuff from the 2014 UM defense and 2014 CSM offense as well;
General Stats
Looking at yardage per game, here’s who holds the advantage:
Passing yards Montana (434 for UM vs 131 for CPSLO = 304 more YPG)
Rushing yards CPSLO (110 for UM vs 351 for CPSLO = 241 more YPG)
Total Offense Montana (544 for UM vs 482 for CPSLO = 62 more YPG)
Pass defense Montana (198 allowed for UM vs 235 allowed for CPSLO = 37 less YPG allowed)
Rush defense CPLSO (230 allowed for UM vs 180 allowed for CPSLO = 50 more YPG allowed)
Total defense CPSLO (428 allowed for UM vs 415 allowed for CPSLO = 13 more YPG allowed)
• It is worth pointing out on the defensive side if you use UM’s 2014 defense as a measure the UM’s defense was actually better in rushing yards allowed (125) and better in total defense 359 allowed vs Poly’s 415 allowed).
• Additionally if you use CSM’s 2014 passing numbers the total offense would still tip in favor of Montana but about 20 yards per game less than the current gap.
No total advantage when using 2015 UM vs 2014 CPSLO. Montana advantage when using 2014 numbers for UM/CSM stats by a whopping 5-1 ratio.
Other Stats worthy of mention:
Offense Points Scored UM (38 ppg for UM vs 34 ppg for CPSLO)
Defense points Allowed CPSLO (35 ppg for UM vs 29 ppg for CPSLO)
Turnover margin CPLSO (-1 for UM vs +8 for CPSLO with UM’s offense stats they were +15 last season)
Fieldgoal % UM (100% for UM vs 100% for CPLSO on just 2-2 kicking last year – giving UM the nod since in 1 game we made more fieldgoals than Poly attempted all of last year)
Punt returns CPSLO (0 yards per return for UM vs 6 yards per return for CPSLO)
Kick returns None(17 for UM vs 17 for CPSLO)
T.O.P. CPSLO (24:44 for UM vs 31:42 for CPSLO)
Red Zone Defense (touchdowns) CPSLO (100% allowed for UM vs 69% allowed for CPSLO)
Red Zone Offense (touchdowns) CPSLP (40% scored for UM vs 84% scored for CPSLO)
• More items of note, the 2014 UM defense averaged 21 ppg, had a +15 turnover margin, and allowed RZ TD’s just 46% of the time.
• CSM’s offense had a 66% TZ touchdown % so not enough to tip that stat
Advantage CPSLO 6 categories to 2. However if you use prior year general stats the advantage tips to UM in the favor of 5-3
Players to Watch
#9 Chris Brown – QB We all know Brown, this guy broke records against us last year. Poly’s success last year (and the prior year) hinged on his health. He is arguably one of the 2 best QBs in the conference. A legit dual threat triple option QB. Last year he ran for 105 yards per game and passed for 125 yards per game. He lead his team in rushing attempts (249), rushing yards (1269), and rushing TDs (17). He also threw 12 TDs to just 3 interceptions and completed 60% of his total passes.
#24 Kori Garcia – RB The starting Wing-back for Poly Garcia was their other 1000 yard rusher last season. The 5-9, 190 running back had 1039 rushing yards and 7 rushing TDs on the season. He was also 2nd in total team receptions and had 146 total receiving yards and 2 TDs.
#28 Joe Protheroe – FB Poly’s new starting fullback, he’s a big dude at 6-0 and 225 pounds. Poly’s going to look at the NDSU tape and will use him to test our DT’s and MLB’s. Last year in a backup role he ran for 185 yards and 2 TDs.
#8 Jordan Hines – WR He’s no Ramses Barden but he’s Poly’s “big man” WR. Hines was 2nd on the team last year with 312 receiving yards and 4 TDs. As I recall he’s a good blocking WR as well.
#12 Roland Jackson – WR Jackson was Poly’s home run threat guy, he’s really small for an FCS player, 5-10 and listed at… 150 pounds (typo maybe?). Jackson averaged almost 30 yards per catch on the team last year and was the team leader in receiving yards with 415. I believe Jackson will also be the main kick returner as well.
#48 Josh Letuligasenoa – DE 65 tackles last season for Josh, he had 6 TFLs, was tied for 1st on the team with 3 sacks, and lead the team with 2 forced fumbles and 1 fumble recovery.
#21 Chris Fletcher – CB The senior cornerback is the team’s leading returning tackler with 68 tackles in 2014. He also lead the team with 11 pass break ups. The 5-9 corner had 1 interception last year.
#9 Karlton Dennis – CB Poly’s other starting corner from last season returned. He lead the team in interceptions with 3 and had 48 tackles to go with it.
#11 Burton De Koning – WLB The weak side linebacker, De Koning had 43 tackles and was used to rush the QB a lot, he lead the team in QB hits.
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Keys to a Grizzly victory
1. Always account for Chris Brown and put the hurt on him. A fresh and presumably wildly motivated Gamboa will be huge in this. Brown runs this offense perfectly and last year absolutely destroyed our defense with his feet. Need to hit him even when he pitches the ball on outside runs. Watch his throws too – we saw plenty of delays/fakes where his WRs could quickly get beyond the defense and he’s an accurate thrower.
2. Improve the red zone defense. Last week against NDSU they scored a TD in every trip to the red zone. In 2014 the Griz defense was VERY good at not allowing that to happen. Poly last year only kicked 2 fieldgoals the whole season because of an early injury to their kicker. I assume with him back they’ll try more kicks, but in the wake of not having a reliable kicker for fieldgoals last year they were incredibly efficient in the red zone scoring TDs. The Grizzly defense needs to improve over last week and force more fieldgoal attempts.
3. Prevent the big play. Twice NDSU set up big scores on fakes that fooled our defense. The opening TD was a play-fake that caught our safety flat-footed and left a wide open TD pass out there. Then in the 2nd half a nicely designed screen caught our linebackers unaware and it wound up setting up a 1st and goal (and eventual TD). Poly will try some home run shots. We’ll need our safeties and linebackers to not get fooled.
4. Keep improving on stopping the ball carrier in his tracks. NDSU’s earlier scoring success came on some questionable tackling from a lot of our defenders. As no surprise as the game went on and the tackling improved NDSU’s success to break tackles and extend plays rapidly diminished. The Griz will need to start out where they left off from the NDSU game.
5. Out-pace Cal Poly. This game has the potential to light up the scoreboard. Last year Poly’s fast paced offense averaged about 80 plays per game. Meanwhile Stitt wants 90+ plays. This game could turn into a shootout if both offenses run this many plays. The Griz will need to try to not let Poly get rolling as much on offense, and meanwhile have a game similar to or better than NDSU on offense.
6. Attack Poly’s inexperienced players. Just like NDSU Cal Poly has new safeties, returning corners that are both at or under 5-10, and are missing their top tacklers from the season before. Poly’s D-line is fairly experienced but they’ve got some new linebackers and the middle of the field is going to get tested big time with this offense.
7. Improve execution on offense, especially in the red zone. 2 of 5 RZ trips resulted in TDs last week. Against a high scoring offense like Poly’s that will not cut it. The 2nd to last red zone trip for Montana was a mess – the team wound up going backwards after getting to the 3 yard line and had to kick a field goal. Little to no drops from the WRs as well. Ellis dropped an earlier would-be TD on a screen last week and if you remember last year Jones had some rather painful drops too.
8. Give Brady time. We saw two things last week, first that Brady took a beating late in the game and second that when he had good time he was much more accurate. Considering he picked apart NDSU’s Tampa-2 that rushed just 4 I can’t help but wonder if Poly is going to try to blitz like crazy and see if the O-line can hold up.
9. No big kick returns. Last week I believe the Bison averaged 31 yards per return. Tighten up there!
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This game promises to be as grueling and tense as last weeks. While the Griz bring the benefit of being at home, having a game under their belts, and having a big boost in confidence that doesn’t assure a single thing. Poly returns 16 total starters including a possibly Big Sky MVP. They made us look pretty bad last year and Brown is an expert at this offense. Add in we’ve seemed to always have issues with Poly. Look at the scores over the last decade:
21-41 loss
21-14 win
37-23 win
33-35 loss
35-23 win
30-28 win
10-9 win
36-27 win (2005 regular season)
21-35 loss (2005 playoff game)
That puts the total scoring at 244 for Montana and 235 for Cal Poly or essentially a 1 point per game positive margin for Montana over these 9 games (27 ppg to 26 ppg).
I think NDSU exposed some rushing game issues that need to be cleaned up and Poly’s going to try to do the same. This one very well could come down to the last team with the ball… just like last week. I’m thinking we’re in for another wild ride. If the weather is cooler and especially raining that could play favor to a ground team like Poly (maybe). I’m going to say in another edge of your seat game the Griz roll into their first bye week 2-0 and beat Poly with a late TD… 42-38.
GO GRIZ!