Expectations

[getgrizzy]

So talking about talent, where do you think the Griz sit talent wise compared with other schools in the Big Sky? Other schools in FCS?

Do you believe that UM has the best talent in the BSC? Are they middle of the pack?

QB: Top 2 or 3 in the conference. IMO Vernon Adams, Jordan Johnson, and Garret Safron are the best 3 QBs in the Big Sky.

RB: Best in the conference. Taking into account the stable of running backs the UM has I don't know if any team is as good. No one player is probably "the best" but the mix of Canada, Van, and Counts is hard to match.

WR: Middle of the pack. Ellis Henderson is one of the better WRs in the Big Sky, beyond him I need to see more consistency from Jones, and how Naccarato, Walcott, Haynes, and Rogers will work their way in.

TE: Bottom third. I like the pass-catching potential of Harper and Saylor, but the TE hasn't been used much and it's hard to grade out how they block compared to other TEs in the conference. Tough to say.

OL: Middle of the pack. We've got two of the more experienced tackles in the Big Sky, that's good. And then we've got three inexperienced interior linemen. That suggests it'll not be so good. Time will tell.

DL: One of the better D-lines in the conference. Wagenmann and Holmes are the best starting pair of DE's in the Big Sky. Takai is a serviceable tackle and Kidder is loaded with potential - however we need to see better consistency on the field.

LB: No clue. They could be great, they could be bad. All new guys essentially and they're light. Pass coverage should be good, run support could be dicey. Again, I like the potential here of all these guys, especially Van Ack, Kose, Schye, and Gamboa... but we need to see how they'll be during the game.

CB: Middle of the pack. No "lock down" corner that will shut down a team's #1 WR but three above average corners (IMO) in Harris, Dennard, and Nelson.

S: Lower 1/3. I believe Hermanson could continue to improve and will play his best football this season, that's based on what I've seen in spring - however he needs to prove that first. Opposite of him it's totally unproven.

K: Lower 1/3. Again, I see improvement, I'm hopeful for gains, but it needs to be proven in games.

P: Top 3. Did NAU's beast of a punter graduate? Shaw is one of the better punters in the Big Sky

KR/PR: Top 3. A healthy Henderson is one of the better returners the Big Sky has.

if you add all this up it puts us just above middle of the pack. we need to exceed what brint is saying in some of these areas to make the playoffs.

 

[PlayerRep]

So talking about talent, where do you think the Griz sit talent wise compared with other schools in the Big Sky? Other schools in FCS?

Do you believe that UM has the best talent in the BSC? Are they middle of the pack?

QB: Top 2 or 3 in the conference. IMO Vernon Adams, Jordan Johnson, and Garret Safron are the best 3 QBs in the Big Sky.

RB: Best in the conference. Taking into account the stable of running backs the UM has I don't know if any team is as good. No one player is probably "the best" but the mix of Canada, Van, and Counts is hard to match.

WR: Middle of the pack. Ellis Henderson is one of the better WRs in the Big Sky, beyond him I need to see more consistency from Jones, and how Naccarato, Walcott, Haynes, and Rogers will work their way in.

TE: Bottom third. I like the pass-catching potential of Harper and Saylor, but the TE hasn't been used much and it's hard to grade out how they block compared to other TEs in the conference. Tough to say.

OL: Middle of the pack. We've got two of the more experienced tackles in the Big Sky, that's good. And then we've got three inexperienced interior linemen. That suggests it'll not be so good. Time will tell.

DL: One of the better D-lines in the conference. Wagenmann and Holmes are the best starting pair of DE's in the Big Sky. Takai is a serviceable tackle and Kidder is loaded with potential - however we need to see better consistency on the field.

LB: No clue. They could be great, they could be bad. All new guys essentially and they're light. Pass coverage should be good, run support could be dicey. Again, I like the potential here of all these guys, especially Van Ack, Kose, Schye, and Gamboa... but we need to see how they'll be during the game.

CB: Middle of the pack. No "lock down" corner that will shut down a team's #1 WR but three above average corners (IMO) in Harris, Dennard, and Nelson.

S: Lower 1/3. I believe Hermanson could continue to improve and will play his best football this season, that's based on what I've seen in spring - however he needs to prove that first. Opposite of him it's totally unproven.

K: Lower 1/3. Again, I see improvement, I'm hopeful for gains, but it needs to be proven in games.

P: Top 3. Did NAU's beast of a punter graduate? Shaw is one of the better punters in the Big Sky

KR/PR: Top 3. A healthy Henderson is one of the better returners the Big Sky has.

Nice summary, but pretty conservative. I think our receivers will be closer to the top next fall, and were above middle of the pack last year. I also rate our TE's higher, both last this and next fall. I think our o-line will be better than middle of the pack. If they aren't, we're screwed. I like our d-line. Yup, linebacker is a wild card. Lots potential; how quickly can they improve. I'm hoping the returning corners have continued to improve. I don't think safety plan will be lower third. One safety is near the top of the conference. Need someone to step up and add depth, tho.

 

[CDAGRIZ]

I predict 6-5. Hope I'm wrong.

That would be disappointing. I know I might sound like a "spoiled Griz fan," but, at a minimum, I expect us to play all the games on the schedule.

I predict that, after we start out 6-5, the fans storm the field with pitchforks and torches, and the remainder of the season is canceled out of concern for players' and coaches' safety.

That would definitely be disappointing.

 

[BWahlberg]

Brint:
This is a pretty good analysis IMO. It's fair and impartial. Growler has you pegged incorrectly. When put on the spot, you really don't sugarcoat. My question is how does this translate into a BSC tittle?

Thanks CV.

How does it translate into a BSC title. First there's what can be controlled and what can't be. Obviously the out of control factors are just that, the "what ifs" of every season. What if Vernon Adams goes down for the season, what if suddenly UND becomes unstoppable, etc.

However within the realm of control it would rely on the progression of key players and positions and improvement from the coaching staff. Those key positions would be (IMO) Safety, Linebacker, and Offensive Line.

Ever the optimist you could look at all three positively:

Safety: Good improvements under new coach Cookus last year. Hermanson's 2nd year with this new coach/system. Whitted and Delaserra are more aggressive players than Tully was. Also some developing depth in Gratton, Anderson, and even McKinney.

Linebacker: Been said a lot, pass coverage should improve. If the OLBs can add muscle and weight but not lose too much of their speed and athleticism then that would be great, and who better but Gerber to help that in the off-season. This group has shown early that it might be a better tackling squad as a whole as well.

O-line: Kade Ranning has stepped in to help work with interior linemen, which could help with direct practice with Ranning and Gragg giving attention to the O-line. Both Hines brothers and Weyer played last year as needed. Deitrich and Todd are guys with great upside who have had good spring camps.

That's the sugar side of it. The flip-side of the argument is the overall lack of experience in all three positions. Looking at 2 safeties, 3 linebackers, and 5 offensive linemen we've got 3 guys who started last year (Hermey, Poole, Schmaing) and Poole was at guard and he's now back to tackle.

Another thought on getting back to the BSC title is progression from the coaching staff. The O-line had issues run blocking as the season went on. Tackling was an issue all season long. In the 3rd quarter far too often the team was flat. The defensive scheme (to me) was too passive and relied upon all linebackers, corners, and safeties to cover in space far too long because the pass-rush wasn't as effective as hoped. All of that needs to improve. I have no doubt in my mind that the coaches are fully aware of this and have plans to improve it. The question becomes, planning it vs actually having it happen. And that we won't see until the season gets rolling.

 

[Sam A. Blitz]

Kidder would excel as a DE in a 3-4. I see our offense improving if the young guys on the OL can step up. I like our talent at the skill positions.

 

[grizindabox]

JJ may be in the Top 3 QB's in the BSC...but is that really very impressive?

Saffron and Adams looked damn impressive last season. It always helps having a great QB. I prefer Saffron and JJ though. Adams drives me crazy with throwing it up way too often. Then again, I guess when a team has WR factory like EWU does, it helps more often than it hurts.

Sorry EWU fans, I just am not sold on Adams for that reason. Yes, I am aware he is likely to put up amazing out of this world numbers for 2 more years. If he does not get some discipline to his game, he will not make it very far professionally in any league. He will cost his team a game come the playoffs.

Does not seem that you addressed the question

 

[CV Griz Fan]

As far as expectations for 2014 and beyond, I think It depends on the UM leadership. To be a dominant team, like the Griz were five plus year ago, it takes leadership from the top. All of the leadership levels president, AD and coach have to be on the same page and be committed to the same goal to produce a consistent dominant winner. This just isn't the case currently with UM athletics, especially the football program. You can complain about Hauck and the past University Presidents running an "out if control" program all you want but the Griz were dominant year in and year out. If things don't change at the top, then 3rd place BSC finishes will become the new expectation IMO and the Griz program will slowly erode and stay at that lower level. If that's what Griz nation wants, then keep the Status Quo. If so, EWU will more than likely assume the vacated position that the Griz once had.

 

[BWahlberg]

JJ may be in the Top 3 QB's in the BSC...but is that really very impressive?

Saffron and Adams looked damn impressive last season. It always helps having a great QB. I prefer Saffron and JJ though. Adams drives me crazy with throwing it up way too often. Then again, I guess when a team has WR factory like EWU does, it helps more often than it hurts.

Sorry EWU fans, I just am not sold on Adams for that reason. Yes, I am aware he is likely to put up amazing out of this world numbers for 2 more years. If he does not get some discipline to his game, he will not make it very far professionally in any league. He will cost his team a game come the playoffs.

Does not seem that you addressed the question

Just over 280 combined passing and rushing yards per game and 32 TDs to just 5 INTs as one of the most efficient QBs in all of the FCS.

Yes he's one of the most dominant, and no it doesn't matter that he's in the Big Sky.

 

[reinell30]

My expectations are to go to the championship game every year, anyone who isn't wanting this to happen is not a real fan. Now, is it realistic to believe this will happen each year? Hell no! But you got to believe! I hate driving home from Missoula to Great Falls after a loss, it really sucks, and I hate to lose! I expect our team to play at a 100% level every game, I expect our coaching staff to call the right plays 100% of the time, again is this realistic thinking? Hell no! But you got to believe! I expect this team this year will go to the National Championship, and at each loss, if any, I will lose some of that expectation. But you got to believe! Just because the Griz had so many years of dominance, doesn't mean we can't be dominant again for years to come. But you got to believe! I don't know how many players or if any read this forum or even if the players have much interaction with fans, but when fans don't believe, that rubs off on the players and yes, can cause downfall in the player's. The only thing fans have to do is be there for these players with POSITIVE support all the time. You got to believe!

GO GRIZ!

 

[Alaska Griz]

reinell30,
I agree very much that a fans positive attitude and lofty expectations certainly rubs off on the players, at almost any level. I know this to be true, especially high school programs. One reason I don't take shi%ts on player or people, even if it's over the internet. In today's worlds, it sadly all kind of the same.

 

[Alaska Griz]

reinell30,
I agree very much that a fans positive attitude and lofty expectations rubs off on the players, at almost any level. And yes, this does affect tradition and contnuity. I know this to be true, especially high school programs. Just one reason I don't take shi%ts on players or people, even if it's over the internet. In today's world, it's sadly all kind of the same.

 

[krammer]

JJ may be in the Top 3 QB's in the BSC...but is that really very impressive?

jj better be that impressive because if he has to set for a few games this season, our back up ssh is a long ways from top 2 or 3.....

also an observation in recruiting the last 3- 4 years has to go to eastern over everyone in the conference....they have signed just about everyone they have wanted....we have done ok but not nearly as good as eastern imo....I still have difficulty understanding why anyone would go there......as always go griz!

 

[NewPapaBear]

Again, player health, coaching schemes & proper utilization of personnel will be vital!

W - Aug. 30 @ Wyoming is ripe w/ new coach new qb issues & players buy-in problems
W - Sept. 6 vs Central Washington shouldn't be on the schedule but they are (bye week #1)
W - Sept. 13 vs South Dakota
L - Sept. 20 @ North Dakota State very close game will be decided on TO/Spec Teams
W - Sept. 27 vs Northern Colorado * (Homecoming)
W - Oct. 4 @ North Dakota *
Oct. 11 BYE WEEK #2
W - Oct. 18 vs UC Davis * (Pink Game)
W - Oct. 25 @ Cal Poly *
W - Nov. 1 vs Sacramento State * (Military Appreciation Day)
L - Nov. 8 @ Eastern Washington * we got outschemed & out coached; expect the same
W - Nov. 15 @ Southern Utah *
W - Nov. 22 vs Montana State *

10-2 or 9-3 road games @ Cal Poly & Southern Utah will present in conference challenges.
Top eight seed in post season tournament because NCAA wants that $$$ from Griz home games.
FCS Quarter Finalists if healthy with scheme improvements & superior offensive personnel.

 

[GrizFan2011]

I would be very happy with a deep playoff run too. Talent wise, we can do it. I still doubt our coaching though.

Sadly, me too.

:thumb:

 

[IntuitiveGriz]

I started a "2014 Griz Strength(s) vs Weakness(s)" thread before I saw this dandy, because I was thinking like mtgrizrule I guess. So I asked for my thread to be demolished, and I will copy my post here:

2014 Griz Strength(s) vs Weakness(s)

I'm curious to hear what everyone thinks the Grizzlies biggest strengths and weaknesses will be in the 2014 football season.

I'll state the obvious first, and something that I hope we all believe, that having a 5th yr QB return under center will be a huge strength. A QB that took use to the national semi-finals, so we know he has the talent to compete with the best, and the leadership to get us far...hopefully all the way this season.

One more offensive strength next year I feel will be the WRs. I know people will say the RBs, and rightfully so, but look at Henderson and Jones...they were great last year as Sophs, but they return as upperclassmen (Juniors). That's a big deal (experience/confidence). If Walcott can stay healthy, giving us a another threat, we'll be tough to defend all the way around. I'm really looking forward to seeing what the Indiana kid can do, when the "lights are on", as a Rs-Fr.

I wasn't happy with one of the OL a lot of the time last year, and he returns. Couple that with losing some good OL to graduation (so we'll be somewhat inexperienced to boot), that position needs to prove A LOT in my eyes. How about yours? I think we'll be hearing early on a lot of, "It's a work in progress", referrring to the big guys upfront. Just hope it goes away without it causing too much of a glitch in the Griz plans for success. This is my biggest area of concern.

I wasn't real thrilled with the DE play either last season. Lack of sacks (production was down), and constantly it seemed disreguarding their keys and responsibilities as they would crash down and ignore/give up contain on the edge. It cost us games at the end. Watch the playoff loss, we needed a stop, and the DE crashed down. Coastal Carolina OC saw this was happening and then sealed the game with the great call. From the very experienced DEs, I'm hoping for a more ferocious pass rush (sacks), and more disciplined run-stoppage play.

What does UM have going for it, and going against it, in 2014? :thumb:

arty:

 

[IntuitiveGriz]

I agree strongly with BWahlberg and Player Rep on almost everything...they are spot on.

Just 1 small thing, am more optimistic on our WRs than BW, and more pessimistic about our OL than PR.

 

[mtgrizrule]

I agree strongly with BWahlberg and Player Rep on almost everything...they are spot on.

Just 1 small thing, am more optimistic on our WRs than BW, and more pessimistic about our OL than PR.

I agree with you about the WR's and OL. The final spring scrimmage added to my concern for our OL. I was hoping they would show more progress. Then again, I believe they ended spring drills with only 7 or 8 healthy Offensive Linemen. I am sure the still healthy ones are damn tired and need the break. Here is to hoping for better health starting in August and all football season. :thumb:

 

[IntuitiveGriz]

OL: Middle of the pack. We've got two of the more experienced tackles in the Big Sky, that's good. And then we've got three inexperienced interior linemen. That suggests it'll not be so good. Time will tell.

CB: Middle of the pack. No "lock down" corner that will shut down a team's #1 WR but three above average corners (IMO) in Harris, Dennard, and Nelson.

I'm confidently giving OL a bottom third ranking, at this point. Sweet Jesus I hope they improve from now until conference play, if not before. Otherwise the Griz are S C R E W E D. We have 2 returning starters, and 1 of them ran around last season, conservatively half the time to 3/4 of the time, as if he was the QB who had already handed off the ball and was running away from the play giving off the body language of "Please don't hurt/touch me". He constantly ran around and purposely didn't touch/block a soul. Picture this, he was like that lead blocker (fullback) we've all seen at every level of football that runs through the line of scrimmage, only to completely not make his block because he acts like he doesn't see him, and then has his defender make the tackle, all while he then turns around and stands around the pile wondering why the ball carrier never got anywhere. He stood around the pile (without a defender of course) more than the flippin officials. It's because Princess took the play(S) off! Damn I'm getting fired up thinking about it. :lol:

Harris is a talented kid. But he played scared/soft last year. He was lined up soft, and then he bailed deep a lot on routes that the WR broke off to middle depth leaving him open for an easy pitch and catch. And I say he was scared/played soft coverage with confidence because well I saw it with my own eyes, that and the fact that on the Grizzly Sports Report program interview with Harris he mentioned how the DC would come into the room after the 2012 burn season and joke to the DBs about getting burned...and Harris replied something to the effect that I'm going to show you I'm not going to get burned. Hence his fear and soft coverage preventing the deep ball, but giving up short and intermediate routes routinely in 2013. Can't blame Harris too much, the Griz DL didn't get to the QB.

 

[putter]

IMO a healthy Travon Van could be a game changer. He was not healthy for very long last year and it had an effect on the offense. If he can stay healthy all year he is a guy you have to game for every week because he has the speed and ability you just don't see a lot at the FCS level. Van and Canada were a real 1-2 punch and it opened up the passing game for Henderson.

 

[NewPapaBear]

IMO a healthy Travon Van could be a game changer. He was not healthy for very long last year and it had an effect on the offense. If he can stay healthy all year he is a guy you have to game for every week because he has the speed and ability you just don't see a lot at the FCS level. Van and Canada were a real 1-2 punch and it opened up the passing game for Henderson.

Agreed. Griz has great tandems within our skill positions on offense (WRs/RBs).
I would use Van & Henderson in the slots in tandem. Henderson would be a slot at the next level anyway. Put Henderson in the slot, use more motion with him & dramatically reduce his double teams. Van a third down back in the NFL & a demon on the bigger field up north. These are our two most dangerous player in space. I would be hard pressed to sleep if I was coaching talent like this.

Do this & we could win most down based upon formations that allow you no brainer match ups with the deepest group of skill position players in the FCS West. Coach em up men...coach em up!