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Has Mountain West Been a 1-Bid Conference in Past 3 years?
- Thread starter PlayerRep
- Start date
AZGrizFan said:
pr also ignores the fact that Nevada will win as many tourney games this year as the bsc has won in its history. I think the MWC will be juuuuuuust fine when it comes to NCAA money going forward.
Hey look!!! A windmill farm!!
grizzlyjournal
Well-known member
PeauxRouge said:
I have heard that, but have never seen stats that prove a higher % of weather-cancelled flights than, say... SLC or Denver. A friend, who used to work at the MSO airport, told me flight ingress-egress delays are no longer a significant yearly problem (pulp mill closure). I was thinking more on the lines of flying into Phoenix, busing to Flagstaff... before busing to Cedar City, before flight back to MSO.
EverettGriz said:
Can you explain how Nevada winning tourney games would help UM get into the tournament more often? Wouldn't Nevada winning the tournament decrease the number of times UM would go.
Do you think UM would have gone to the tourney last year, had it been in the MW?
PlayerRep said:
Wow. Just...wow.
I can't believe I have to explain this but...
Nevada winning tourney games is a cash cow for the conference. It's why REAL conferences protect their best teams, because that's where the revenue comes from. It's exactly what the bsc DOESN'T do, which is reason number 1,330,989,197,842 to leave it. Rising tides lift all boats.
It's just that the bsc is in eternal dry dock.
And yes, I believe UM absolutely goes to the tournament last year AND this as a MWC member.
Hey look!! Dozens of windmill farms!!
EverettGriz said:
Sure, UM goes to tourney last year and this year in MW? Pretty funny. Do they beat Nevada in the tourney to get in? Man, your basketball knowledge must be as weak as your football knowledge, which is virtually non-existent.
Yes, winning games gets the conference more ncaa money, but that doesn't get more teams into the tourney. Note that the MW had 5 teams in the tourney a half dozen years ago, and now they are getting only 1.33 into the tourney.
The MW payout is going to decrease this year unless Nevada wins 4 games (I think). In fact, now that I think of it, probably even more. Can't recall how many wins the MW got that great year.
1. See, this is why we want to move to real conference, because more than one team can advance. Last year I believe UM may have beaten Nevada, but would have advance as an at-large in either event. This year I believe they'd receive an at-large.
2. Correct, more money doesn't equal more teams. Better conferences equal more teams. The MWC is a vastly superior conference with more money. And their teams are 3 times as likely to advance to the tournament.
3. How is the bsc going to do? Think they'll get 4 games worth of payoff?
2. Correct, more money doesn't equal more teams. Better conferences equal more teams. The MWC is a vastly superior conference with more money. And their teams are 3 times as likely to advance to the tournament.
3. How is the bsc going to do? Think they'll get 4 games worth of payoff?
PeauxRouge
Well-known member
grizzlyjournal said:
I was thinking more in terms of cost to fly in to MSO, rather than cancellations. I could very much be wrong on that part, though.
This thread . . .
This is a windmill conversation...
However, I think it is good to dream. I said this in the other thread about DeCuire, I think we vastly overplay our hand and our status in the region at times. Outside of the Pac12, what are the basketball schools that have more cache in the west? There aren't many, and I think that reflects in DeCuires ability to get into those California schools and mine out some great talent. You'd like your chances to win some recruiting battles against these teams and we have in some ways.
For Sure...
Gonzaga (Duh)
St. Mary's
Nevada
San Diego State
Maybe:
New Mexico
Boise State
Utah State
UNLV
BYU
New Mexico State
All of those teams I have listed have had wins recently in the NCAA's or have consistent appearances there. If you want the Griz to have chances to win games at least nationally, maybe a change in scenery helps but it isn't necessary. I think the Griz can achieve some sort of regional prominence from within the Big Sky, but it would be more than likely outside of it. Weber State could ask itself that question as well and I believe they are in the same boat. I think the one bid leagues all have this problem and many teams in the true mid major conferences. Conference environment is important, but how essential is it to national success?
If we aren't going to go anywhere, what needs to happen to help the program further the progress? Facilities help. Talent helps. Coaching helps. What is the missing piece? Environment and wins.
However, I think it is good to dream. I said this in the other thread about DeCuire, I think we vastly overplay our hand and our status in the region at times. Outside of the Pac12, what are the basketball schools that have more cache in the west? There aren't many, and I think that reflects in DeCuires ability to get into those California schools and mine out some great talent. You'd like your chances to win some recruiting battles against these teams and we have in some ways.
For Sure...
Gonzaga (Duh)
St. Mary's
Nevada
San Diego State
Maybe:
New Mexico
Boise State
Utah State
UNLV
BYU
New Mexico State
All of those teams I have listed have had wins recently in the NCAA's or have consistent appearances there. If you want the Griz to have chances to win games at least nationally, maybe a change in scenery helps but it isn't necessary. I think the Griz can achieve some sort of regional prominence from within the Big Sky, but it would be more than likely outside of it. Weber State could ask itself that question as well and I believe they are in the same boat. I think the one bid leagues all have this problem and many teams in the true mid major conferences. Conference environment is important, but how essential is it to national success?
If we aren't going to go anywhere, what needs to happen to help the program further the progress? Facilities help. Talent helps. Coaching helps. What is the missing piece? Environment and wins.
IdaGriz01
Well-known member
Getting away from Griz joining (or not) the MWC ... this is shaping up to be a one-bid year for the MWC, although I would not rule out Utah State just yet. (Be aware that the records for both Utah State and Fresno State are each inflated by one non D-I win.)
Over the past 15 years I have used and tweaked a kind of “formula” to try to anticipate what teams will get bids to the Big Dance. I do not worry about “quality wins” or “bad losses,” and never apply the “eye test” (whatever the Hell that is). Without going into detail, it’s all about total wins and the strength of a team’s conference. I only use power rankings and strength of schedule at the very end, to “fine tune” the final few decisions. It takes maybe an hour (not including the time to retrieve the data).
My approach has never missed more than two at-large bids in a year, and missed only one in 2007, 2014, and 2015. My big year was 2016, when I got ever pick right … including no bid for a 27-win Monmouth team.
So … right now the MWC is #16 in conference RPI. There’s still a lot of basketball to be played, but the conference rankings don’t change all that much from here. By my formula right now, a Mountain West team will probably need to win 23 or 24 games to be in the mix for a bid. Barring a total collapse, Nevada should end with more than enough wins to be a lock for a bid … even if they don’t win the conference tournament.
Utah State has nine games left. In that stretch, they play Nevada and have five games coming up on the road: Fresno State, San Diego State, Air Force, Boise State and Colorado State. While possible, it will be tough for them to go 7-2 the rest of the way. But with 16 D-I wins right not, that’s what they have to do just to be in the mix for an NCAA at-large bid.
Fresno State also has nine games left. With only 15 D-I wins right now, they almost have to run the table to be in the mix. Since they face Nevada, Utah State, San Diego State and Boise State, I’d say their chances look pretty slim.
If "form holds" in the Mountain West – that is, Nevada continues to dominate – there's only one way for the conference to get two bids: Someone will have to upset Nevada in the conference tournament.
Over the past 15 years I have used and tweaked a kind of “formula” to try to anticipate what teams will get bids to the Big Dance. I do not worry about “quality wins” or “bad losses,” and never apply the “eye test” (whatever the Hell that is). Without going into detail, it’s all about total wins and the strength of a team’s conference. I only use power rankings and strength of schedule at the very end, to “fine tune” the final few decisions. It takes maybe an hour (not including the time to retrieve the data).
My approach has never missed more than two at-large bids in a year, and missed only one in 2007, 2014, and 2015. My big year was 2016, when I got ever pick right … including no bid for a 27-win Monmouth team.
So … right now the MWC is #16 in conference RPI. There’s still a lot of basketball to be played, but the conference rankings don’t change all that much from here. By my formula right now, a Mountain West team will probably need to win 23 or 24 games to be in the mix for a bid. Barring a total collapse, Nevada should end with more than enough wins to be a lock for a bid … even if they don’t win the conference tournament.
Utah State has nine games left. In that stretch, they play Nevada and have five games coming up on the road: Fresno State, San Diego State, Air Force, Boise State and Colorado State. While possible, it will be tough for them to go 7-2 the rest of the way. But with 16 D-I wins right not, that’s what they have to do just to be in the mix for an NCAA at-large bid.
Fresno State also has nine games left. With only 15 D-I wins right now, they almost have to run the table to be in the mix. Since they face Nevada, Utah State, San Diego State and Boise State, I’d say their chances look pretty slim.
If "form holds" in the Mountain West – that is, Nevada continues to dominate – there's only one way for the conference to get two bids: Someone will have to upset Nevada in the conference tournament.
Stop it!! You guys are using logic, reason, stats and facts to prove pr wrong, and by now you must know that simply cannot be tolerated.
Any more of this sensible posting and you're all subject to a band!!
Any more of this sensible posting and you're all subject to a band!!
