Figured I’d resurrect this old thread rather than start a new one.
I was updating my basketball database today, just getting somewhat started on my bid-prediction game, and a couple things stood out.
First, the Griz are hanging in there better than I expected, given the weakness of the Big Sky. That is, their NET rank is now sitting at #106, their RPI at #83. (The SOS sucks at #241, so it’s still “win or go home/NIT” for the conference tournament.)
In the Mountain West, Nevada is almost certainly a “lock” already for an NCAA bid, and will absolutely be one if they win one or two more games. Their NET and RPI ranks are, coincidentally, the same … at #18. That’s really good, but the process I use goes more on total wins versus the overall strength of a team’s conference. The problem is, Nevada’s SOS is not good, at #110.
Utah State is sitting at #37 NET, #40 RPI, with an SOS of #127. That might get them an at-large bid if they win a couple more regular season games. Which they could do, since they are at home for Nevada and SDSU, and then play Colorado State on the road. No other team in the MW has any chance unless they win the conference tournament. But if someone other than Nevada wins the tournament, I’m betting the MW still gets only two bids. (The “experts” are talking about 5-6-7 teams from more than one of the power conferences … severely cutting the chances for bubble teams from the weaker conferences.)
And, FWIW, the correlation between the NET and the old RPI has increased slightly -- now over 92% -- as the season has progressed. The NCAA spent a lot of money for no real gain in predictability … just so they could hide the process from outsiders. Typical.
